| Trumpenomics 08:48 - May 19 with 9405 views | nrb1985 |
You have to laugh really.
Comes in telling the world he's going to bring interest rates down to help his base.
Cue enacting a raft of textbook inflationary policies and receiving a rating downgrade on Friday.
30yr treasury through 5% this morning and 10yr back above 4.5%.
Sure we'll hear lots this week about how it's Powell or Biden's fault... [Post edited 19 May 2025 9:35]
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| Trumpenomics on 11:12 - May 22 with 2039 views | iamatractorboy |
| Trumpenomics on 10:31 - May 22 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Trump spent his entire campaign referring to the record debt under Biden - but his tax cuts are now forecast to add a further $4trn to US national debt! |
FAKE NEWS!!! The CORRUPT Biden Crime Family oversaw record levels of debt in this once GREAT country! MAGA!!! | | | |
| Trumpenomics on 14:08 - Aug 1 with 1724 views | nrb1985 |
An absolutely shocking jobs number in the US just now. Worst for a number of years.
Massive hiring slowdown, manufacturing hit especially hard (wonder why...)
A slowing in the pace of hiring is often the precursor to layoffs. So we're potentially looking at inflation grinding higher due to a weak dollar and tariffs, while unemployment is likely to rise.
Might have missed it but I don't recall him pitching stagflation on the campaign trail? [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 21:16]
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| Trumpenomics on 14:12 - Aug 1 with 1699 views | iamatractorboy |
| Trumpenomics on 14:08 - Aug 1 by nrb1985 |
An absolutely shocking jobs number in the US just now. Worst for a number of years.
Massive hiring slowdown, manufacturing hit especially hard (wonder why...)
A slowing in the pace of hiring is often the precursor to layoffs. So we're potentially looking at inflation grinding higher due to a weak dollar and tariffs, while unemployment is likely to rise.
Might have missed it but I don't recall him pitching stagflation on the campaign trail? [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 21:16]
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Come on now, it's clearly Sleepy Joe's fault. Or Obama's. Or Hillary's. Or The Deep State's. Or Elon's. Or....or....
anyone but Trump's. Anyone who says it's his fault is just peddling Fake News. | | | |
| Trumpenomics on 14:14 - Aug 1 with 1683 views | nrb1985 |
| Trumpenomics on 14:12 - Aug 1 by iamatractorboy |
Come on now, it's clearly Sleepy Joe's fault. Or Obama's. Or Hillary's. Or The Deep State's. Or Elon's. Or....or....
anyone but Trump's. Anyone who says it's his fault is just peddling Fake News. |
You've missed Powell off the list!
I will put my mortgage on the fact he blames the Fed for being too late today at some point. [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 21:17]
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| Trumpenomics on 14:30 - Aug 1 with 1632 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Trumpenomics on 14:08 - Aug 1 by nrb1985 |
An absolutely shocking jobs number in the US just now. Worst for a number of years.
Massive hiring slowdown, manufacturing hit especially hard (wonder why...)
A slowing in the pace of hiring is often the precursor to layoffs. So we're potentially looking at inflation grinding higher due to a weak dollar and tariffs, while unemployment is likely to rise.
Might have missed it but I don't recall him pitching stagflation on the campaign trail? [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 21:16]
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His people are still briefing the press that the tariffs are paid by the overseas countries. It’s utterly surreal. I wonder how long it will take for his supporters to realise the slow down and extra prices they have to pay are linked to the tariffs? |  |
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| Trumpenomics on 14:51 - Aug 1 with 1596 views | nrb1985 |
| Trumpenomics on 14:30 - Aug 1 by Swansea_Blue |
His people are still briefing the press that the tariffs are paid by the overseas countries. It’s utterly surreal. I wonder how long it will take for his supporters to realise the slow down and extra prices they have to pay are linked to the tariffs? |
Sadly I think the battle for the hearts and minds of his base was lost long ago.
But, an economic slowdown, albeit bad for them and RoW also, would at least reduce the chances of a MAGA candidate getting in in 2028.
Going through the numbers a bit more, the rolling 3 month avg for non farm payrolls (i.e. the amount of non farm related jobs added to the economy each month) is now the lowest since June 2020.
Yikes! [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 22:13]
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| Trumpenomics on 15:03 - Aug 1 with 1558 views | DJR |
| Trumpenomics on 14:51 - Aug 1 by nrb1985 |
Sadly I think the battle for the hearts and minds of his base was lost long ago.
But, an economic slowdown, albeit bad for them and RoW also, would at least reduce the chances of a MAGA candidate getting in in 2028.
Going through the numbers a bit more, the rolling 3 month avg for non farm payrolls (i.e. the amount of non farm related jobs added to the economy each month) is now the lowest since June 2020.
Yikes! [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 22:13]
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Yes, the revisions for May and June seem astonishing.
"Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)"
In terms of fiddling the figures, they obviously haven't sacked the right people in the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, although the Federal job cuts must be having an impact on things. [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 15:05]
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| Trumpenomics on 15:20 - Aug 1 with 1526 views | nrb1985 |
| Trumpenomics on 15:03 - Aug 1 by DJR |
Yes, the revisions for May and June seem astonishing.
"Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)"
In terms of fiddling the figures, they obviously haven't sacked the right people in the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, although the Federal job cuts must be having an impact on things. [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 15:05]
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Tbf - BLS revisions are nothing new and there was one almighty one roughly a year ago under Biden, when the economy was in pretty good shape.
https://www.longvieweconomics.
The trend is undeniable though. The unemployment rate also ticked up slightly along with avg. hourly earnings, which all points to slowing growth and higher inflation.
The Fed are in a horrible position now but I'm not sure cutting rates even by 100bps can do much about any of this. Just a ridiculous economic policy whichever way you slice it. | | | |
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| Trumpenomics on 16:22 - Aug 1 with 1476 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Trumpenomics on 15:03 - Aug 1 by DJR |
Yes, the revisions for May and June seem astonishing.
"Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)"
In terms of fiddling the figures, they obviously haven't sacked the right people in the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, although the Federal job cuts must be having an impact on things. [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 15:05]
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That seems a suspiciously high correction. Quite amazing if true. I had seen that they've stopped collecting a lot of data now (the example I saw was inflation data collection is drastically reduced (60%+)), so job cuts are definitely having an effect. I don't know if that's the case here though, but it's likely as it will be the same/similar department/units involved I'd have thought. | |
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| Trumpenomics on 16:29 - Aug 1 with 1469 views | Leaky |
Well as much as I don't like him he screwed the EU over the trade deal |  | | |
| Trumpenomics on 16:46 - Aug 1 with 1438 views | nrb1985 |
| Trumpenomics on 16:22 - Aug 1 by Swansea_Blue |
That seems a suspiciously high correction. Quite amazing if true. I had seen that they've stopped collecting a lot of data now (the example I saw was inflation data collection is drastically reduced (60%+)), so job cuts are definitely having an effect. I don't know if that's the case here though, but it's likely as it will be the same/similar department/units involved I'd have thought. |
Getting very nerdy here but think you might be referring to "survey" data where they reach out to the public to get their views on things like inflation each month. That definitely has become tricky as it's highly politicised and with less people wanting to take part, thus accuracy and can be questionable:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news
Non-Farm Payroll numbers though are based on real reports from employers and government agencies about how many people are actually on their payrolls — so it's hard data, not opinion so to speak. [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 16:48]
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| Trumpenomics on 16:49 - Aug 1 with 1427 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Trumpenomics on 16:46 - Aug 1 by nrb1985 |
Getting very nerdy here but think you might be referring to "survey" data where they reach out to the public to get their views on things like inflation each month. That definitely has become tricky as it's highly politicised and with less people wanting to take part, thus accuracy and can be questionable:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news
Non-Farm Payroll numbers though are based on real reports from employers and government agencies about how many people are actually on their payrolls — so it's hard data, not opinion so to speak. [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 16:48]
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Ah, I'm not sure so yes I might be | |
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| Trumpenomics on 18:04 - Aug 1 with 1371 views | DJR |
Despite these figures, Karoline Leavitt will no doubt maintain, as she did yesterday, that Trump has produced the greatest US economy ever. And his followers will believe it.
Interestingly, I read an article in the FT at the weekend suggesting stock valuations and the like in the US were entering "bubble" territory.
https://www.ft.com/content/245
[Post edited 1 Aug 2025 18:05]
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| Trumpenomics on 19:22 - Aug 1 with 1319 views | nrb1985 |
| Trumpenomics on 18:04 - Aug 1 by DJR |
Despite these figures, Karoline Leavitt will no doubt maintain, as she did yesterday, that Trump has produced the greatest US economy ever. And his followers will believe it.
Interestingly, I read an article in the FT at the weekend suggesting stock valuations and the like in the US were entering "bubble" territory.
https://www.ft.com/content/245
[Post edited 1 Aug 2025 18:05]
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The stock market there, like the real economy, is completely bifurcated.
The big tech stocks are flying while the rest of the index is much of a muchness. And the high income consumers are thriving while middle to lower income households are flat on their back.
The fed really do need to cut rates but this administration’s absurd inflationary policies make that very tricky. [Post edited 1 Aug 2025 22:14]
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| Trumpenomics on 19:38 - Aug 1 with 1296 views | ElderGrizzly |
He’s just making it up (literally) as he goes along
He also got the Smithsonian Museum to remove all evidence of his 2 impeachments in the Museum of American History. Rewriting history like a tin-pot dictator |  | | |
| Trumpenomics on 20:16 - Aug 1 with 1256 views | iamatractorboy |
| Trumpenomics on 19:38 - Aug 1 by ElderGrizzly |
He’s just making it up (literally) as he goes along
He also got the Smithsonian Museum to remove all evidence of his 2 impeachments in the Museum of American History. Rewriting history like a tin-pot dictator |
He intimated that Covid numbers were only bad because of all the testing they were doing back in 2020, so by the same logic, if they stop reporting on these bad numbers... problem solved. | | | |
| Trumpenomics on 11:59 - Aug 2 with 1081 views | nrb1985 |
| Trumpenomics on 19:38 - Aug 1 by ElderGrizzly |
He’s just making it up (literally) as he goes along
He also got the Smithsonian Museum to remove all evidence of his 2 impeachments in the Museum of American History. Rewriting history like a tin-pot dictator |
One step away from China who basically decided they would just stop reporting unemployment figures.
Absolute tinpot dictator as others have pointed out. | | | |
| Trumpenomics on 12:46 - Aug 2 with 1047 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Trumpenomics on 19:38 - Aug 1 by ElderGrizzly |
He’s just making it up (literally) as he goes along
He also got the Smithsonian Museum to remove all evidence of his 2 impeachments in the Museum of American History. Rewriting history like a tin-pot dictator |
Yep, re-writing history and getting more fascist by the day. Looks like Maxwell will be pardoned soon as well. I wonder what will happen to her, whether he’ll be happy she’ll keep his secrets or if she’ll have an unfortunate accident. | |
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| Trumpenomics on 13:41 - Aug 2 with 1000 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Trumpenomics on 12:46 - Aug 2 by Swansea_Blue |
Yep, re-writing history and getting more fascist by the day. Looks like Maxwell will be pardoned soon as well. I wonder what will happen to her, whether he’ll be happy she’ll keep his secrets or if she’ll have an unfortunate accident. |
She’s just been moved to a prison ‘camp’ in Texas too, with much more freedom.
As you say, also much easier for an ‘accident’ to happen in that type of prison environment
NewsMax - Trump and MAGA’s go-to news channel are spinning that ‘maybe’ Maxwell is innocent and the DoJ framed her [Post edited 2 Aug 2025 13:42]
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| Trumpenomics on 14:48 - Aug 2 with 961 views | Churchman |
| Trumpenomics on 13:41 - Aug 2 by ElderGrizzly |
She’s just been moved to a prison ‘camp’ in Texas too, with much more freedom.
As you say, also much easier for an ‘accident’ to happen in that type of prison environment
NewsMax - Trump and MAGA’s go-to news channel are spinning that ‘maybe’ Maxwell is innocent and the DoJ framed her [Post edited 2 Aug 2025 13:42]
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Alligator Alcatraz for her! Basically, Trump didn’t like the latest stats so shot the messenger.
His best bet is to get his crayons out, scribble down a few numbers, tell the Chuck and Chet everything is brilliant and toddle off to cheat at golf.
But then I guess he’s already doing that…. [Post edited 2 Aug 2025 14:49]
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| Trumpenomics on 15:52 - Aug 2 with 928 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Trumpenomics on 13:41 - Aug 2 by ElderGrizzly |
She’s just been moved to a prison ‘camp’ in Texas too, with much more freedom.
As you say, also much easier for an ‘accident’ to happen in that type of prison environment
NewsMax - Trump and MAGA’s go-to news channel are spinning that ‘maybe’ Maxwell is innocent and the DoJ framed her [Post edited 2 Aug 2025 13:42]
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Biden’s DOJ at that (even though she was picked up and charged during Trump’s first term). They live in an alternative universe where facts don’t matter. Lies that can be so easily proven should be so easy to push back against, but nobody over there seems willing to. | |
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| Trumpenomics on 09:28 - Mar 4 with 318 views | nrb1985 |
We can add starting a war in the middle east with no obvious off ramp now to the list of how he's going to bring down inflation and improve affordability...
Oil up again this morning, +20% now this week alone.
Back of a fag packet calcs are that every 10% adds ~0.3% to inflation and drags down growth by roughly the same amount.
Genius. [Post edited 4 Mar 9:29]
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| Trumpenomics on 09:34 - Mar 4 with 300 views | DJR |
| Trumpenomics on 09:28 - Mar 4 by nrb1985 |
We can add starting a war in the middle east with no obvious off ramp now to the list of how he's going to bring down inflation and improve affordability...
Oil up again this morning, +20% now this week alone.
Back of a fag packet calcs are that every 10% adds ~0.3% to inflation and drags down growth by roughly the same amount.
Genius. [Post edited 4 Mar 9:29]
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The sad thing is that he and his entourage don't care about the effect of his actions on the rest of the World.
And he will lie about any impact it has on the States.
Still there's a glimmer of hope for one country. 
https://www.theguardian.com/wo
Middle East conflict offers economic lifeline to Russia’s flagging war machine
With much of the world’s oil supplies out of action, Russia could step in to meet demand in China and India [Post edited 4 Mar 9:43]
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| Trumpenomics on 09:42 - Mar 4 with 262 views | giant_stow |
| Trumpenomics on 09:20 - May 19 by nrb1985 |
To the credit of most of the hard left and right in this country (I say credit with a bad taste in my mouth), I haven't really seen anybody seriously suggesting the BoE should lose their independence? |
On the left, there's Modern Monetary Theory, which I have very little understanding of, but seems to run counter to prevailing central bank consensus. I know very little about it, but I believe Coach Rob off of on here might be a good explainer .
Edit: I think Polanski may also be borrowing some ideas from MMT too. [Post edited 4 Mar 9:46]
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| Trumpenomics on 09:46 - Mar 4 with 251 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Trumpenomics on 09:28 - Mar 4 by nrb1985 |
We can add starting a war in the middle east with no obvious off ramp now to the list of how he's going to bring down inflation and improve affordability...
Oil up again this morning, +20% now this week alone.
Back of a fag packet calcs are that every 10% adds ~0.3% to inflation and drags down growth by roughly the same amount.
Genius. [Post edited 4 Mar 9:29]
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Yep, shipping largely brought to a halt, and the impact of the oil and gas prices feeding through to inflation is already estimated as a 0.1% to 0.15% to hit to global GDP growth. Maybe doesn’t sound much in percentage terms but it’s huge in Dollar terms, and likely to worsen the longer the conflict goes on.
Iran, in addition to civilians are deliberately targeting energy infrastructure and logistics, with damage to sites in Kuwait, Saudi, Qatar, and UAE. Some have shut down as a precaution, as you rightly say this will all feed through to inflation which has already proven sticky. | | | |
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