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What % of our full potential are we currently playing at? on 13:46 - Nov 24 by WeWereZombies
Define potential please.
How well we are capable of playing this season. I.e. Are there more 'gears' to go through or is the level of football we are currently playing what we'll be doing at the end of the season?
What % of our full potential are we currently playing at? on 17:16 - Nov 24 by Horsham
The answer is 72.7%
We are currently averaging 1.6 pt per game and our potential is 2.2 pt per game.
The 2.2 is of course totally subjective!
Fractionally over 50%. Our potential is 3 ppg.
The truth is there have been performances where we have won convincingly and look by far the better side. There are also performances where we have been clearly the better side on most metrics except goals and have lost. Equally there have been a few performances where we haven't really out-performed the opposition and have shared the points. Can anyone point me to a Championship team that has consistently performed significantly better than the opposition throughout the season? Even Coventry this season have only lost 1 match but I doubt they have played everyone off the park in all of their 4 draws and 11 wins. Weren't they 2-0 down before beating West Brom in their last match?
What % of our full potential are we currently playing at? on 17:59 - Nov 24 by Nthsuffolkblue
Fractionally over 50%. Our potential is 3 ppg.
The truth is there have been performances where we have won convincingly and look by far the better side. There are also performances where we have been clearly the better side on most metrics except goals and have lost. Equally there have been a few performances where we haven't really out-performed the opposition and have shared the points. Can anyone point me to a Championship team that has consistently performed significantly better than the opposition throughout the season? Even Coventry this season have only lost 1 match but I doubt they have played everyone off the park in all of their 4 draws and 11 wins. Weren't they 2-0 down before beating West Brom in their last match?
I agree with almost all of this.
"Most metrics except goals" is right, but only because you say "most". When we don't win a game despite having dominated possession and touches in the box (which is not infrequent), it's not /just/ goals that is the weak stat. It's the other attacking stats too, like shots on target (or at least percentage of shots on target).
It's sometimes implied that a failure to win is just a total random chance that's disconnected from the remainder of our stats, or at least unlucky because we've done everything BUT win. One does get the occasional game like that. But in our keenness to understand football deeply, and to show our understanding of the complex and the unsung roles in a team, it's really really easy to lose sight of the fact that a goal is the only absolute (i.e. non-relative) thing you need to win. It's not incidental or ancillary, or unconnected. Our finishing is a key key part of our performance, and it's really not been good enough.
We're absolutely top of the league on one stat: big chances missed. 33 in 15 games. And remember, we've played fewer games than everyone else in the top two-thirds of the table. This is not something that just "averages out over the course of the season" as if it were random chance. How can we have spent the most on attacking players, and yet have missed the most big chances? Yes, that stat in part is a function of having created a reasonable number of chances. But our shot conversion rate is not top 6, and should be with the money we've spent.
If we draw a match 0-0 playing like we did against Wrexham, we can't say that we outplayed them in all departments. We must have been even worse than them in the finishing department. It's a key skill, and it must improve by hook (hard work, accountability) or by crook (the arrival of Jimmy McJanuary).
What % of our full potential are we currently playing at? on 18:22 - Nov 24 by HighgateBlue
I agree with almost all of this.
"Most metrics except goals" is right, but only because you say "most". When we don't win a game despite having dominated possession and touches in the box (which is not infrequent), it's not /just/ goals that is the weak stat. It's the other attacking stats too, like shots on target (or at least percentage of shots on target).
It's sometimes implied that a failure to win is just a total random chance that's disconnected from the remainder of our stats, or at least unlucky because we've done everything BUT win. One does get the occasional game like that. But in our keenness to understand football deeply, and to show our understanding of the complex and the unsung roles in a team, it's really really easy to lose sight of the fact that a goal is the only absolute (i.e. non-relative) thing you need to win. It's not incidental or ancillary, or unconnected. Our finishing is a key key part of our performance, and it's really not been good enough.
We're absolutely top of the league on one stat: big chances missed. 33 in 15 games. And remember, we've played fewer games than everyone else in the top two-thirds of the table. This is not something that just "averages out over the course of the season" as if it were random chance. How can we have spent the most on attacking players, and yet have missed the most big chances? Yes, that stat in part is a function of having created a reasonable number of chances. But our shot conversion rate is not top 6, and should be with the money we've spent.
If we draw a match 0-0 playing like we did against Wrexham, we can't say that we outplayed them in all departments. We must have been even worse than them in the finishing department. It's a key skill, and it must improve by hook (hard work, accountability) or by crook (the arrival of Jimmy McJanuary).
Agree the goals per shot isn't where we'd want it to be but I think there's still random variance in there at this stage of the season rather than necessarily technique/personnel at fault. There are currently 3 teams tracking at higher shots per goals rate than anyone has achieved in the past 5 seasons so it seems unlikely they'll keep that up.
What % of our full potential are we currently playing at? on 18:22 - Nov 24 by HighgateBlue
I agree with almost all of this.
"Most metrics except goals" is right, but only because you say "most". When we don't win a game despite having dominated possession and touches in the box (which is not infrequent), it's not /just/ goals that is the weak stat. It's the other attacking stats too, like shots on target (or at least percentage of shots on target).
It's sometimes implied that a failure to win is just a total random chance that's disconnected from the remainder of our stats, or at least unlucky because we've done everything BUT win. One does get the occasional game like that. But in our keenness to understand football deeply, and to show our understanding of the complex and the unsung roles in a team, it's really really easy to lose sight of the fact that a goal is the only absolute (i.e. non-relative) thing you need to win. It's not incidental or ancillary, or unconnected. Our finishing is a key key part of our performance, and it's really not been good enough.
We're absolutely top of the league on one stat: big chances missed. 33 in 15 games. And remember, we've played fewer games than everyone else in the top two-thirds of the table. This is not something that just "averages out over the course of the season" as if it were random chance. How can we have spent the most on attacking players, and yet have missed the most big chances? Yes, that stat in part is a function of having created a reasonable number of chances. But our shot conversion rate is not top 6, and should be with the money we've spent.
If we draw a match 0-0 playing like we did against Wrexham, we can't say that we outplayed them in all departments. We must have been even worse than them in the finishing department. It's a key skill, and it must improve by hook (hard work, accountability) or by crook (the arrival of Jimmy McJanuary).
I’m with you on this. I’ve been banging on about our conversion rate of big chances for several weeks now. For me this is our biggest weakness right now; not how we play, attacking intent, leadership or any of the other ‘reasons’ being put forward.
As an illustration of this, I did a simple analysis of a few teams from the weekend, which shows it well. See the table in this post :
11 points from 15 by SuffolkPunchFC24 Nov 10:59 It's completely wrong to say we're not creating - we are, and I've highlighted the stats for recent matches before.
Let's take this weekend, and look at our stats vs some of the other teams.
We're just not taking enough chances - especially the 'Big Chances'. We should be scoring from the majority of these, and we're not in too many games. Compare us to others, and the message is stark.
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What % of our full potential are we currently playing at? on 02:06 - Nov 25 with 210 views
It's true we are not converting our chances, but we are also not as fluid as McKennaball mark 1. We are a BMW 8 speed auto stuck in 3rd. 37.5%. There is a lot to come, there are signs of improvement but like mark 1 there were hiccups along the way
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