| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG 11:15 - Dec 13 with 369 views | unstableblue |
As per paste below we need 90 points for second place. Maybe less - albeit Boro could have had their wobble and Saints could go like a steam train.
We’ve played 20 games of 46
We’ve accrued 34 points of the 90 - 56 to go across 26 games
That’s 2.15 PPG, that’s high.
So picking up on Bankster’s thread and those suggesting there are no must wins in December.
I don’t quite agree… now a draw at Leicester is still positive, but we there’s no doubt we need a run, and today would put down a marker, start that momentum
BUT - Sheff Weds at home is a MUST WIN
You can’t keep kicking the can (the points total) down the road.
Over the last eight completed seasons (2017/18 to 2024/25), the points required to secure this position have averaged roughly 90 points.
The points for the second-placed teams over the last eight completed seasons are:
2024/25: Burnley – 100 points (Finished level with champions Leeds United but second on goal difference)
2023/24: Ipswich Town – 96 points
2022/23: Sheffield United – 91 points
2021/22: Bournemouth – 88 points
2020/21: Watford – 91 points
2019/20: West Bromwich Albion – 83 points
2018/19: Sheffield United – 89 points
2017/18: Cardiff City – 90 points [Post edited 13 Dec 11:21]
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| We’re 1.83PPG over last 6; 1.7PPG over the season to date - need a run (n/t) on 11:24 - Dec 13 with 331 views | unstableblue |
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| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 11:24 - Dec 13 with 336 views | Swansea_Blue |
I don’t see how a draw at Leicester and a win against Wednesday is any different to beating Leicester and drawing against Wednesday. Every game is as important as the next. Each offer the chance of 3 points. ‘Must win’ matches this early seem overly dramatic, given there’s no immediate jeopardy if we don’t win. But of course we need to go on a run to achieve top 2 (which would be quite something given the head start we gave half the league). [Post edited 13 Dec 11:27]
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| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 11:31 - Dec 13 with 292 views | unstableblue |
| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 11:24 - Dec 13 by Swansea_Blue |
I don’t see how a draw at Leicester and a win against Wednesday is any different to beating Leicester and drawing against Wednesday. Every game is as important as the next. Each offer the chance of 3 points. ‘Must win’ matches this early seem overly dramatic, given there’s no immediate jeopardy if we don’t win. But of course we need to go on a run to achieve top 2 (which would be quite something given the head start we gave half the league). [Post edited 13 Dec 11:27]
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Hey Swansea,
Completely agree that it’s 4 points minimum over Leicester and Sheff Weds. Doesn’t matter how it comes.
But I just added the following: We’re 1.83PPG over last 6; 1.7PPG over the season to date
And that does point to MUST WIN games in December. The points rate is just way off currently. And it’s that necessary run that resolves that. And that’s racking up some wins in a row.
Up to FA Cup - Leicester, Weds, Millwall, Cov, Oxford, Pompey - I actually think we 4 wins there, so to get a win today against one of the three hard teams, gets that going.
Final point - looking back at that Prem season… I think that Fulham home game was a must win on reflection. We had momentum from the Champ, we’d played well against Liverpool for large parts, and on the day we were marginally better in a cracking game. You can’t keep kicking the need for wins to get points down the road… before you know it you’re cut adrift… in this case from second | |
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| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 11:36 - Dec 13 with 275 views | John_Warks_Willy |
I doubt we’ll get 2.15 PPG, let’s be realistic. But I think there’s a very real chance 2nd spot at least is a scrap involving more clubs than usual, so could be a lower points target.
Always that possibility that Coventry stutter too, but I back them to do enough albeit they so t retain quite the form to date.
Southampton moving into position to surge as well. Yeah, I think points totals required could be diluted and lower than normal. Good competitive season 👌 |  |
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| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 11:42 - Dec 13 with 253 views | unstableblue |
| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 11:36 - Dec 13 by John_Warks_Willy |
I doubt we’ll get 2.15 PPG, let’s be realistic. But I think there’s a very real chance 2nd spot at least is a scrap involving more clubs than usual, so could be a lower points target.
Always that possibility that Coventry stutter too, but I back them to do enough albeit they so t retain quite the form to date.
Southampton moving into position to surge as well. Yeah, I think points totals required could be diluted and lower than normal. Good competitive season 👌 |
Yes was also thinking could be more an 85 season.
Depends if Boro get more consistent again, and whether Saints keep this momentum
Be interesting to see what the second place points tally were after 20 games in those lower than 90 seasons.
But again back to the point any chance of 2+ PPG going forward relies on wins now, not later | |
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| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 11:43 - Dec 13 with 256 views | Churchman |
I tend to look at a long season in terms of trends in blocks of 5 and 10. I also tend to see it from the how we are playing perspective.
First 10: 6 3 1 = 21 points
Second 10: 3 4 3 = 13 points
So the trend is overall improving. How we are playing is obviously patchy but I sense the players are gradually forming a good team for this level. What has hurt is a poor start and an inability to break teams down that park the bus. The start is done, but we can do something about the latter, which I’ve no doubt they’re working on.
So for me there are no ‘must win’ games. We’ve seen most of the opposition teams now and know where we are in relation to the rest. We are reliant on Coventry blowing up which looks unlikely but it’s happened to teams before. Middlesbrough new manager bounce has been pretty spectacular, but overall I’m not totally convinced by them.
In conclusion I think we are heading in the right direction and should fear nobody now and given the ropey start, it’s a case of keep improving and see where we finish. It’s such a screwball league it wouldn’t surprise me if we had a good result today and messed it up next Saturday. |  | | |
| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 12:22 - Dec 13 with 219 views | ringwoodblue |
Let’s face it, it’s a pretty mediocre Championship this season and Coventry aside, no team has been very consistent throughout the first 20 games.
Therefore I think 85 pts would be enough to grab second so 2 ppg from now til the end of the season avoiding too many losses and I think it will be enough.
I think it could also go down to the final day of the season it’ll be that tight. |  |
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| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 12:30 - Dec 13 with 204 views | Swansea_Blue |
| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 11:31 - Dec 13 by unstableblue |
Hey Swansea,
Completely agree that it’s 4 points minimum over Leicester and Sheff Weds. Doesn’t matter how it comes.
But I just added the following: We’re 1.83PPG over last 6; 1.7PPG over the season to date
And that does point to MUST WIN games in December. The points rate is just way off currently. And it’s that necessary run that resolves that. And that’s racking up some wins in a row.
Up to FA Cup - Leicester, Weds, Millwall, Cov, Oxford, Pompey - I actually think we 4 wins there, so to get a win today against one of the three hard teams, gets that going.
Final point - looking back at that Prem season… I think that Fulham home game was a must win on reflection. We had momentum from the Champ, we’d played well against Liverpool for large parts, and on the day we were marginally better in a cracking game. You can’t keep kicking the need for wins to get points down the road… before you know it you’re cut adrift… in this case from second |
It highlights how much of an ask it will be to hit that 90 point mark, doesn’t it? Whether that many points will be needed we’ll have to wait and see. Will Coventry be able to go again after dropping quite a few points lately? Are any of the others going to go on a blinding run?
I worry about S’ton. They seem to be clicking and scoring lots of goals. I can see Coventry bouncing back strongly as they’ve got several really good goal scorers. Boro, who knows, they can be hot and cold.
You’re right that we haven’t got much more time to waste if we have genuine aspirations to go up automatically. | |
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| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 12:50 - Dec 13 with 157 views | BloomBlue |
I still think Coventry & Boro will hit bad patches, and come back to the pack.
Us oldies will remember Watford 07/08 (as I've mentioned before). Top of the Championship at Christmas and with a gap to 2nd. Injuries hit, form dropped and they dropped from 1st to 7th and only just got back into 6th on last game of the season. |  | | |
| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 13:05 - Dec 13 with 132 views | Kievthegreat |
We don't have any must win games in December. As long as we keep in touch we don't end up with must win games until April or May.
Would it be easier if we win some of these big games? Are some games more important than others? Will our lives be a lot harder if we don't win them? Yes on all counts.
If we lost today, could we still realistically finish top 2? If the answer is yes than it cannot be a must win game. [Post edited 13 Dec 13:05]
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| The Must Win, How Soon is Now, Sprint/Marathon debate?! We need 2.15PPG on 13:09 - Dec 13 with 113 views | Smoresy |
Last year Blackburn were 5th after 20 games with 37 points. Year before, Ipswich (😍) were 2nd with 48 points. This top two fight is collectively off the pace at present. Two are on course for 90, just about in Boro's case, but they're both in very uncharted waters.
Normally you can trust the parachute clubs to do at least half the heavy lifting for 90+ top two finishes. Will one of us deliver this time? Only two are in a position to do so realistically, us or Saints (2.31 PPG). |  | | |
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