| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math 11:51 - Feb 15 with 1109 views | unstableblue |
Following Guthrum’s final table ‘simulation’
And considering we need 9 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses out of 16 games to secure automatic - well roughly that (we really don’t want it be in the play-offs.
And given the remaining fixtures below - then it’s time to unearth the Must Win Paradox… yes yes yes… we all get that a game is not Must Win until mathematically certain of an outcome.
But looking at those games… and given we need NINE wins I would say Swansea at home and Sheff Weds away are MUST wins…. Yes they’ll be swings and roundabouts on how we win the other seven… maybe we’ll win at Norwich and lose at Charlton …
But I think if you don’t win those two, then mathematically probability of autos reduces significantly
I think my point is - THE TIME IS NOW… not when it’s mathematically a final straw. A lesson from our Prem season. We were definitely relegated when we lost at home to Saints, period.
Thoughts?
33. Sat 21/02/26 3:00 PM A Wrexham AFC
34 Tue 24/02/26 7:45 PM A Watford FC
35 Sat 28/02/26 3:00 PM H Swansea City
32 Tue 03/03/26 7:45 PM H Hull City
36 Sat 07/03/26 3:00 PM H Leicester City
37 Tue 10/03/26 8:00 PM A Stoke City
38 Sat 14/03/26 3:00 PM A Sheffield Wednesday
39 Sat 21/03/26 3:00 PM H Millwall FC
40 Fri 03/04/26 3:00 PM A Southampton FC
41 Mon 06/04/26 3:00 PM H Birmingham City
42 Sat 11/04/26 12:30 PM A Norwich City
43 Sat 18/04/26 3:00 PM H Middlesbrough FC
44 Wed 22/04/26 7:45 PM A Charlton Athletic
45 Sat 25/04/26 3:00 PM A West Bromwich Albion
46 Sat 02/05/26 12:30 PM H Queens Park Rangers
Plus Pompey away [Post edited 15 Feb 18:37]
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| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 12:19 - Feb 15 with 1003 views | J2BLUE |
It's the boring answer but we just need to keep concentrating on the next game.
No one expected Forest Green to beat Sheff Wed in league one.
No one expected QPR to hammer Leeds in the Championship.
No one expected us to beat Chelsea and Spurs in the Prem.
Over the last 20 games Town are top of the form table by 4 clear points and goal different. Town's goal difference is +19. The next best is +11.
We are in a good position if people keep their heads. |  |
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| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 12:31 - Feb 15 with 954 views | unstableblue |
| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 12:19 - Feb 15 by J2BLUE |
It's the boring answer but we just need to keep concentrating on the next game.
No one expected Forest Green to beat Sheff Wed in league one.
No one expected QPR to hammer Leeds in the Championship.
No one expected us to beat Chelsea and Spurs in the Prem.
Over the last 20 games Town are top of the form table by 4 clear points and goal different. Town's goal difference is +19. The next best is +11.
We are in a good position if people keep their heads. |
So true about fans keeping their.. I do think an uptick in the positivity and noise from the stands at PR could be a difference maker for where we end up
Yes concentrate on the next game, win that, nibble at the 9 wins total needed
But to my point - we’ll need a lot of our wins well before the end of the season. And if Town can’t beat Sheff Weds away then perhaps autos deserved
20 games aside over the last six, Millwall, Norwich, Boro are all above us… and these are games where a win will be a challenge | |
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| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 12:35 - Feb 15 with 943 views | FrimleyBlue |
Take each game as they come
I do hope tho that the mindset oshea showed about theres always the next game etc changes.
Let's ignore the games left and just go into each game with that full blooded mindset that 3 points is a must. If we are losing. We need 3 points not 1 from it.
We've got the talent as a group to win promotion. But we need solid individual performances every game. We cant carry anyone who be thinking its ok theres always next week. |  |
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| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 12:37 - Feb 15 with 932 views | J2BLUE |
| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 12:35 - Feb 15 by FrimleyBlue |
Take each game as they come
I do hope tho that the mindset oshea showed about theres always the next game etc changes.
Let's ignore the games left and just go into each game with that full blooded mindset that 3 points is a must. If we are losing. We need 3 points not 1 from it.
We've got the talent as a group to win promotion. But we need solid individual performances every game. We cant carry anyone who be thinking its ok theres always next week. |
O'Shea might have that mindset because he knows the form overall is very good and there is no reason to panic. An attitude shared by his manager.
His comments were not a big deal. Some people have tried to interpret them in the worst way possible for some bizarre reason. | |
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| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 12:45 - Feb 15 with 913 views | Blue_Uprising |
Agree to get to the magic number which might be 85 points it is exactly mirroring the results we have achieved in the last 16 games. I like the symmetry.
The Boro, Hull and Millwall games are going to be so important. In theory it should not matter where the wins and draws come from if we get 9 and 4. But ideally having these games in the win or draw columns, rather than the loss column, will be very helpful. |  | | |
| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 14:54 - Feb 15 with 752 views | unstableblue |
| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 12:45 - Feb 15 by Blue_Uprising |
Agree to get to the magic number which might be 85 points it is exactly mirroring the results we have achieved in the last 16 games. I like the symmetry.
The Boro, Hull and Millwall games are going to be so important. In theory it should not matter where the wins and draws come from if we get 9 and 4. But ideally having these games in the win or draw columns, rather than the loss column, will be very helpful. |
Agree a few early wins against teams where 3 points are not expected completely changes the trajectory and reduces the must win need on later games.
And that Hull game would really put a marker down, as I think would next weekend at Wrexham.
The danger with the Wrexham game is that a loss, would take all the momentum from Derby out of the team and fan base. And the fan base murmurings after Friday will amplify!
33. Sat 21/02/26 3:00 PM A Wrexham AFC
34 Tue 24/02/26 7:45 PM A Watford FC
35 Sat 28/02/26 3:00 PM H Swansea City
32 Tue 03/03/26 7:45 PM H Hull City
36 Sat 07/03/26 3:00 PM H Leicester City
37 Tue 10/03/26 8:00 PM A Stoke City
38 Sat 14/03/26 3:00 PM A Sheffield Wednesday
39 Sat 21/03/26 3:00 PM H Millwall FC
40 Fri 03/04/26 3:00 PM A Southampton FC
41 Mon 06/04/26 3:00 PM H Birmingham City
42 Sat 11/04/26 12:30 PM A Norwich City
43 Sat 18/04/26 3:00 PM H Middlesbrough FC
44 Wed 22/04/26 7:45 PM A Charlton Athletic
45 Sat 25/04/26 3:00 PM A West Bromwich Albion
46 Sat 02/05/26 12:30 PM H Queens Park Rangers
Plus Pompey away | |
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| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 15:23 - Feb 15 with 656 views | PioneerBlue |
| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 14:54 - Feb 15 by unstableblue |
Agree a few early wins against teams where 3 points are not expected completely changes the trajectory and reduces the must win need on later games.
And that Hull game would really put a marker down, as I think would next weekend at Wrexham.
The danger with the Wrexham game is that a loss, would take all the momentum from Derby out of the team and fan base. And the fan base murmurings after Friday will amplify!
33. Sat 21/02/26 3:00 PM A Wrexham AFC
34 Tue 24/02/26 7:45 PM A Watford FC
35 Sat 28/02/26 3:00 PM H Swansea City
32 Tue 03/03/26 7:45 PM H Hull City
36 Sat 07/03/26 3:00 PM H Leicester City
37 Tue 10/03/26 8:00 PM A Stoke City
38 Sat 14/03/26 3:00 PM A Sheffield Wednesday
39 Sat 21/03/26 3:00 PM H Millwall FC
40 Fri 03/04/26 3:00 PM A Southampton FC
41 Mon 06/04/26 3:00 PM H Birmingham City
42 Sat 11/04/26 12:30 PM A Norwich City
43 Sat 18/04/26 3:00 PM H Middlesbrough FC
44 Wed 22/04/26 7:45 PM A Charlton Athletic
45 Sat 25/04/26 3:00 PM A West Bromwich Albion
46 Sat 02/05/26 12:30 PM H Queens Park Rangers
Plus Pompey away |
Keep your heads. This will go to the line. If we go with this logic of 9 wins and the draws this play out until the last games. One Game At A Time. Blue Army. |  |
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| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 15:53 - Feb 15 with 579 views | WestSussexBlue |
This is all very well and good but I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, results don’t fall the way you’d expect come the last Three to Four games of the season. Pressure does funny things.
Sheffield Wednesday, gunning for top spot in league One, lost 1-0 at the mighty Forest Green Rovers.
Leeds, everybody’s favourite to clinch an automatic spot back to the Premier League, in the final few games lost to an average Coventry City, lost at home to Blackburn then got absolutely thumped at QPR. All we can do is concentrate on our own results. The rest will take care of itself. | | | |
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| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 15:57 - Feb 15 with 561 views | Smoresy |
Labelling games "must win" brings more theatre doesn't it. Livens up the crowd a bit, no bad thing! Just embrace that it was only theatre if the game isn't won lol, otherwise the risk be meltdowns.
A clear advantage our enviable squad brings is that we don't enter any game as significant underdogs, so there's little need to scratch around at the fixture list trying to unearth where the wins could come from. We're very capable of winning any game in isolation; we just don't want to find ourselves needing a marathon run at the end.
9 wins and 4 draws, I'd feel confident with that if not safe. That's what we and Millwall achieved over our previous 16 games, with only Boro bettering it. | | | |
| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 16:06 - Feb 15 with 542 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Whilst it is take one game at a time, if you assume we need around 9 wins (alongside the 4 draws) to get promoted, we could rank the matches based on current home or away form. The top 9 of those could then be seen as "must win" with the proviso that for every one of the other 7 that we win allows us to fail to win one of those 9. (If that makes sense.)
Easiest:
W: 36 Sat 07/03/26 3:00 PM H Leicester City
W: 38 Sat 14/03/26 3:00 PM A Sheffield Wednesday
W: 46 Sat 02/05/26 12:30 PM H Queens Park Rangers
W: 35 Sat 28/02/26 3:00 PM H Swansea City
W: 37 Tue 10/03/26 8:00 PM A Stoke City
W: 45 Sat 25/04/26 3:00 PM A West Bromwich Albion
W: 41 Mon 06/04/26 3:00 PM H Birmingham City
W: 34 Tue 24/02/26 7:45 PM A Watford FC
W: 33. Sat 21/02/26 3:00 PM A Wrexham AFC
D: 39 Sat 21/03/26 3:00 PM H Millwall FC
D: 44 Wed 22/04/26 7:45 PM A Charlton Athletic
D: 40 Fri 03/04/26 3:00 PM A Southampton FC
D: TBA Portsmouth A
L: 43 Sat 18/04/26 3:00 PM H Middlesbrough FC
L: 42 Sat 11/04/26 12:30 PM A Norwich City
L: 32 Tue 03/03/26 7:45 PM H Hull City
Hardest
That does suggest we should be winning 6 out of the next 7, though. |  |
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| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 17:07 - Feb 15 with 451 views | Blue_Uprising |
| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 15:53 - Feb 15 by WestSussexBlue |
This is all very well and good but I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, results don’t fall the way you’d expect come the last Three to Four games of the season. Pressure does funny things.
Sheffield Wednesday, gunning for top spot in league One, lost 1-0 at the mighty Forest Green Rovers.
Leeds, everybody’s favourite to clinch an automatic spot back to the Premier League, in the final few games lost to an average Coventry City, lost at home to Blackburn then got absolutely thumped at QPR. All we can do is concentrate on our own results. The rest will take care of itself. |
This is totally true. It has always been and always will be about the points total target, with no concern with where they come from really.
That being said if we pick up no wins in the next four and jasondozzell comes on predicting we will win the league comfortably still, I think my brain might explode. Ha ha 🤣 No specific offense to the guy.
I think we can match and slightly better our last 16 games form. 10 wins and 5 draws 🤪 COYB | | | |
| Good work on 17:20 - Feb 15 with 422 views | unstableblue |
| The MUST Win Paradox - given remaining games, it ain’t the math on 16:06 - Feb 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Whilst it is take one game at a time, if you assume we need around 9 wins (alongside the 4 draws) to get promoted, we could rank the matches based on current home or away form. The top 9 of those could then be seen as "must win" with the proviso that for every one of the other 7 that we win allows us to fail to win one of those 9. (If that makes sense.)
Easiest:
W: 36 Sat 07/03/26 3:00 PM H Leicester City
W: 38 Sat 14/03/26 3:00 PM A Sheffield Wednesday
W: 46 Sat 02/05/26 12:30 PM H Queens Park Rangers
W: 35 Sat 28/02/26 3:00 PM H Swansea City
W: 37 Tue 10/03/26 8:00 PM A Stoke City
W: 45 Sat 25/04/26 3:00 PM A West Bromwich Albion
W: 41 Mon 06/04/26 3:00 PM H Birmingham City
W: 34 Tue 24/02/26 7:45 PM A Watford FC
W: 33. Sat 21/02/26 3:00 PM A Wrexham AFC
D: 39 Sat 21/03/26 3:00 PM H Millwall FC
D: 44 Wed 22/04/26 7:45 PM A Charlton Athletic
D: 40 Fri 03/04/26 3:00 PM A Southampton FC
D: TBA Portsmouth A
L: 43 Sat 18/04/26 3:00 PM H Middlesbrough FC
L: 42 Sat 11/04/26 12:30 PM A Norwich City
L: 32 Tue 03/03/26 7:45 PM H Hull City
Hardest
That does suggest we should be winning 6 out of the next 7, though. |
That really puts into context
Wrexham and Watford away as wins … pivotal
And early points on board | |
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