| The Markets 23:20 - Apr 14 with 1679 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Not actually a gambler but I always find it interesting, might just be trying to make myself feel better, we’ve from 1/14 before the game to 1/5 tonight for top 2.
Southampton have gone from 25-1 to 11-1
Boro interestingly are favored ahead of Saints at 7-1.
I can only assume a lot of it is both Ipswich and Boro having tones of cash on us all season.
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| The Markets on 23:27 - Apr 14 with 1609 views | J2BLUE |
Southampton clear second favourites here. |  | | |
| The Markets on 23:28 - Apr 14 with 1592 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| The Markets on 23:27 - Apr 14 by J2BLUE |
Southampton clear second favourites here. |
Paddy Power? | |
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| The Markets on 23:38 - Apr 14 with 1494 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
That’s the only UK odds I can see.
Tonight we could have almost put it to bed really, going to be a horrible few weeks for my anxiety now! | |
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| The Markets on 23:44 - Apr 14 with 1429 views | Kievthegreat |
It's not the betting markets, but it's adjacent; Opta still have us as clear favourites for 2nd. I personally think it's not giving Southampton's form enough credit and that they should be ahead of Millwall. I'd guess it could be that scenarios where we draw against Boro and Soton are very beneficial for Millwall as everyone around them drops points.
Ipswich - 73.72%
Millwall - 10.82%
Southampton - 8.96%
Middlesbrough - 6.44%
Hull - 0.06% |  | | |
| The Markets on 23:48 - Apr 14 with 1404 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| The Markets on 23:44 - Apr 14 by Kievthegreat |
It's not the betting markets, but it's adjacent; Opta still have us as clear favourites for 2nd. I personally think it's not giving Southampton's form enough credit and that they should be ahead of Millwall. I'd guess it could be that scenarios where we draw against Boro and Soton are very beneficial for Millwall as everyone around them drops points.
Ipswich - 73.72%
Millwall - 10.82%
Southampton - 8.96%
Middlesbrough - 6.44%
Hull - 0.06% |
Southampton should surely be second favs.
I wonder what metrics Opta uses, can’t be out away form against bottom half sides lol | |
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| The Markets on 23:57 - Apr 14 with 1360 views | Kievthegreat |
| The Markets on 23:48 - Apr 14 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Southampton should surely be second favs.
I wonder what metrics Opta uses, can’t be out away form against bottom half sides lol |
I'd assume some smorgasboard of xG per 90, home vs away, relative strength/ranking for each side etc...
For reference, next fixtures they currently predict as (percentages for win/loss/draw in that order):
Millwall (H vs QPR)
55.3% / 23.% / 21.7%
Southampton (A vs Swansea)
42.9% / 25.3% / 31.8%
Ipswich (Middlesbrough will be the reverse)
53.9% / 23.6% / 22.5%
Then the midweek game following:
Millwall (A vs Stoke)
41.4%/ 25.6% / 33.0%
Southampton (H vs Bristol)
60.2% / 10.9% / 18.9%
No predictions for us or Boro midweek yet. | | | |
| The Markets on 23:58 - Apr 14 with 1349 views | J2BLUE |
| The Markets on 23:48 - Apr 14 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Southampton should surely be second favs.
I wonder what metrics Opta uses, can’t be out away form against bottom half sides lol |
On paper Southampton have 4 tough games.
If we win 3/5 we will have 84 points and 30 GD if we win and lose games by a single goal. If they win 4/4 they will have 84 points and at least 27 GD. Incredibly tight.
I think we will see a big swing in the Opta stats if Southampton win Saturday and we don't beat Boro on Sunday.
Also if we win 3/5 then Millwall and Boro need to win all 4. And in Boro's case, they need to overturn the GD as well.
So tense. I will be honest, I thought we would win comfortably tonight... | | | |
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| The Markets on 23:59 - Apr 14 with 1322 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| The Markets on 23:57 - Apr 14 by Kievthegreat |
I'd assume some smorgasboard of xG per 90, home vs away, relative strength/ranking for each side etc...
For reference, next fixtures they currently predict as (percentages for win/loss/draw in that order):
Millwall (H vs QPR)
55.3% / 23.% / 21.7%
Southampton (A vs Swansea)
42.9% / 25.3% / 31.8%
Ipswich (Middlesbrough will be the reverse)
53.9% / 23.6% / 22.5%
Then the midweek game following:
Millwall (A vs Stoke)
41.4%/ 25.6% / 33.0%
Southampton (H vs Bristol)
60.2% / 10.9% / 18.9%
No predictions for us or Boro midweek yet. |
I’m actually going to be watching the Swansea/Southampton game with interest. Surely it might catch up with them at some point. If they win that they’ve thrown so much pressure on us. We just gave Boro a lift as well. | |
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| The Markets on 00:04 - Apr 15 with 1283 views | J2BLUE |
| The Markets on 23:59 - Apr 14 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I’m actually going to be watching the Swansea/Southampton game with interest. Surely it might catch up with them at some point. If they win that they’ve thrown so much pressure on us. We just gave Boro a lift as well. |
Feels like an eliminator for Boro. Lose and they are 6 behind us with only 3 games left for them and we would have a game in hand.
If Swansea could get a point that would help us massively. Same with QPR. | | | |
| The Markets on 00:09 - Apr 15 with 1241 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| The Markets on 00:04 - Apr 15 by J2BLUE |
Feels like an eliminator for Boro. Lose and they are 6 behind us with only 3 games left for them and we would have a game in hand.
If Swansea could get a point that would help us massively. Same with QPR. |
Whatever happens Sunday won’t settle our season but if we win I think we’ll do it, fail to win coupled with a Southampton win and it’s a real worry. You say they’ve got tough games, I got to say Swansea, Bristol and Preston looks pretty nice and beachy to me.
People keep saying they’ve can’t win 10 on a row, I mean why not? They’ve won 15 out of 18 and drawn 3! [Post edited 15 Apr 0:11]
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| The Markets on 00:19 - Apr 15 with 1182 views | Kievthegreat |
| The Markets on 00:09 - Apr 15 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Whatever happens Sunday won’t settle our season but if we win I think we’ll do it, fail to win coupled with a Southampton win and it’s a real worry. You say they’ve got tough games, I got to say Swansea, Bristol and Preston looks pretty nice and beachy to me.
People keep saying they’ve can’t win 10 on a row, I mean why not? They’ve won 15 out of 18 and drawn 3! [Post edited 15 Apr 0:11]
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7 points from the next 3. That's what I want. Doesn't matter which one is a draw, get 7 points and we are a win from promotion no matter what. Not easy, but takes the pressure off the Southampton game. Will need to play better than today if we want to get that, but I know on our day, we can do that.
Then it doesn't matter if Southampton continue their miraculous form, even though I assume they'll draw at least one, hopefully with us. | | | |
| The Markets on 00:20 - Apr 15 with 1165 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| The Markets on 00:16 - Apr 15 by J2BLUE |
Swansea and Preston good at home. Bristol City unbeaten and only one conceded under Hodgson.
Here is my final highly scientific verdict... 
8 points will do it...IF Saints and Millwall don't win 4/4 and IF we take at least a point against Boro
Here's my working... http://www.twtd.co.uk/league-c
I put 3-0 to Saints just to give a bad scenario for our GD. |
I just done mine in the prediction league thread and it’s terrifying 83 for town and 82 for Saints. | |
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| The Markets on 00:24 - Apr 15 with 1134 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| The Markets on 00:19 - Apr 15 by Kievthegreat |
7 points from the next 3. That's what I want. Doesn't matter which one is a draw, get 7 points and we are a win from promotion no matter what. Not easy, but takes the pressure off the Southampton game. Will need to play better than today if we want to get that, but I know on our day, we can do that.
Then it doesn't matter if Southampton continue their miraculous form, even though I assume they'll draw at least one, hopefully with us. |
That would be huge and a great return from after Easter well over 2PPg
4 wins
1 draw
1 loss
But that’s means winning two of our next three of course. Tough. Win Sunday and I’ll feel confident.
I’m with you though, would mean they can’t overtake us going into St Mary’s. | |
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| The Markets on 00:53 - Apr 15 with 1078 views | brazil1981 |
| The Markets on 00:09 - Apr 15 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Whatever happens Sunday won’t settle our season but if we win I think we’ll do it, fail to win coupled with a Southampton win and it’s a real worry. You say they’ve got tough games, I got to say Swansea, Bristol and Preston looks pretty nice and beachy to me.
People keep saying they’ve can’t win 10 on a row, I mean why not? They’ve won 15 out of 18 and drawn 3! [Post edited 15 Apr 0:11]
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If Southampton win all 4 remaining, therefore 10 on the trot…that’s equals the Championship record (Villa and Reading from a few years ago I think I read)!
With it being a congested, pressurised end on season run-in (+ Cup Semi at Wembley in the mix), that would be a remarkable achievement!
Think they’ll drop a couple of points at least somewhere which will give us a little room for error!
Think 8 points could be enough (2 wins and 2 draws)! |  | | |
| The Markets on 01:19 - Apr 15 with 1018 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| The Markets on 00:53 - Apr 15 by brazil1981 |
If Southampton win all 4 remaining, therefore 10 on the trot…that’s equals the Championship record (Villa and Reading from a few years ago I think I read)!
With it being a congested, pressurised end on season run-in (+ Cup Semi at Wembley in the mix), that would be a remarkable achievement!
Think they’ll drop a couple of points at least somewhere which will give us a little room for error!
Think 8 points could be enough (2 wins and 2 draws)! |
While true, they only need to win 4 in a row now! | |
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| The Markets on 03:08 - Apr 15 with 931 views | gainsboroughblue |
We have to just aim for 10 points from five games and it doesn't matter what anybody does.
The more I see of Southampton, we need them as they are not stopping. I actually don't believe that their cup 'distraction' is relevant either. They smell blood.
I'm more worried about our ability to put in an absolute stinker of a performance of which tonight was a perfect exhibit. |  |
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| The Markets on 03:26 - Apr 15 with 916 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| The Markets on 03:08 - Apr 15 by gainsboroughblue |
We have to just aim for 10 points from five games and it doesn't matter what anybody does.
The more I see of Southampton, we need them as they are not stopping. I actually don't believe that their cup 'distraction' is relevant either. They smell blood.
I'm more worried about our ability to put in an absolute stinker of a performance of which tonight was a perfect exhibit. |
I think we will get 7-9 points from here and have to hope for the best but I hope I’m wrong and we can find 10.
If we don’t win Sunday (and Saints do), I fear for us. If we do win, just a couple more to find (hopefully) and QPR on deck last day.
I’ve had in my head we will beat Charlton/QPR but was unsure about Pompey/WBA. To me so much hinges on Sunday. If Southampton play us with the opportunity to overtake us, I think that likely happens, as this isn’t just a decent run, it’s almost generational at this point (since Jan 21st).
If we win Sunday though I’ve got every confidence it shakes out in our favor, it would be 9 points out of 12 since Easter and tonight will be forgotten. [Post edited 15 Apr 3:33]
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