| Not a bad little run coming up 17:58 - Sep 7 with 1646 views | Axeldalai_lama |
Hadn't fully devoured the fixture list, but it's a decent run towards Christmas, barring a few games, obviously. Or as decent as it maybe gets.
Palace
Everton
Fulham
(City)
Forest
Hull
Bournemouth
Spurs
Villa
Coventry
Leeds
Newcastle
Brighton
Clearly absolutely none of them are simple, some very tricky games there, and we'd be far from favourites in most, but we've done 2 big teams, so there's a run of 13 games with no Chelsea, Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal, just city.
If ever there was a way to grab some opportunities by the scruff of the neck then this run must be it. |  | | |  |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 18:36 - Sep 7 with 1547 views | armchaircritic59 |
Things seldom work out the way most think they will. Looking way too far ahead. I'll take an absolute minimum of 3 points from the next 3 games, but would certainly prefer 4 plus. Anything less and we're already in a spot of bother. The rest of those fixtures, for now, I'm not interested in. |  | | |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 19:08 - Sep 7 with 1460 views | Bugs |
The next two games are massive—quite possibly the most important of our season.
Four points would take us to the magic seven after five games. Historically, promoted sides reaching that mark have had an 85%+ chance of survival, with only three relegated during the 20-team Premier League era.
Finish on six points, however, and the historical survival rate drops sharply to just 28.6%. |  | | |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 09:33 - Sep 8 with 1076 views | Radlett_blue |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 19:08 - Sep 7 by Bugs |
The next two games are massive—quite possibly the most important of our season.
Four points would take us to the magic seven after five games. Historically, promoted sides reaching that mark have had an 85%+ chance of survival, with only three relegated during the 20-team Premier League era.
Finish on six points, however, and the historical survival rate drops sharply to just 28.6%. |
The stats are there but so much depends on if there are 2 - or preferably 3 - clubs that perform really badly. Coventry have 0pts, but Hull have 7. Too early to spot who might be this season's West Ham or Wolves. |  |
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| Not a bad little run coming up on 10:12 - Sep 8 with 992 views | Adams |
While they're all tough, we shouldn't fear any of those teams in that run. I think we'll be in a decent position after them.
I prefer to just look at the next 5 games. Just 2 wins will put us on 9 points out of 8 games, which wouldn't be bad. City will obviously be tough, but we have Fulham and Forest in October, which are massive chances to pick up wins.
Palace and Everton away are tough places to go, but I'm still hopeful we can pick up a point in at least one of them (especially the Palace game). |  | | |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 10:33 - Sep 8 with 946 views | DavoIPB |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 10:12 - Sep 8 by Adams |
While they're all tough, we shouldn't fear any of those teams in that run. I think we'll be in a decent position after them.
I prefer to just look at the next 5 games. Just 2 wins will put us on 9 points out of 8 games, which wouldn't be bad. City will obviously be tough, but we have Fulham and Forest in October, which are massive chances to pick up wins.
Palace and Everton away are tough places to go, but I'm still hopeful we can pick up a point in at least one of them (especially the Palace game). |
We should fear every team apart those promoted with us. Every other team in the league is on paper and from watching them so far better than us. | | | |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 10:58 - Sep 8 with 889 views | NthQldITFC |
Using my scheme...
The challenge of staying up is highlighted by the next three games by NthQldITFC 6 Sep 11:10I'm looking at it like this, against our 9 most likely bottom half competitors:
Hul, Cov @home _______6=Win all______
Hul, Cov @away ________4=WD________
Ful, Pal, Sun @home ____9=Win all______[Won 1 already], win against Fulham
Ful, Pal, Sun @away _____4=WDL________Any result at Palace
For, Eve @home ________4=WD_________
For, Eve @away _________2=Draw all_____Draw with Everton
Bou, Lee @home _______3=WL_________
Bou, Lee @away ________2=Draw all_____
...gets us to 34 points, plus extras from an unexpected win somewhere and three draws against top 10 sides gets us to 40. These extras are conservative, so I would expect we'd get a few more points from the top half, maybe 5 or 6, which allows a couple of slip ups in the list above.
On that basis only Fulham at home is a 'must win' but even that is not a must win if, as I say, we pick up more than a paltry 6 points from 18 remaining games against the top 10.
... I'd like to see this:
Palace A (4/3) = 1.3
Everton A = 1
Fulham H = 3
(City) A = 0
Forest H (4/2) = 2
Hull A(4/2) =2
Bournemouth H (3/2) = 1.5
Spurs A = extra 1
Villa H = 0
Coventry A (4/2) = 2
Leeds A = 1
Newcastle H = extra 1
Brighton A = 0
Gives us 16pts plus the 3 we have = 19pts by Christmas. |  |
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| Not a bad little run coming up on 12:37 - Sep 8 with 718 views | Adams |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 10:33 - Sep 8 by DavoIPB |
We should fear every team apart those promoted with us. Every other team in the league is on paper and from watching them so far better than us. |
We might not be favorites in the games (maybe Fulkham at home?), and we might lose more than we win, but we shouldn't fear them. Just like we didn't need to fear Sunderland. Some of the squads are pretty average. Everton have Barry leading the line, who is extremely limited.
If we can be a bit better off the ball, we should go into the games confident we can be competitive and maybe get a result. | | | |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 08:14 - Sep 9 with 444 views | Blue_Uprising |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 19:08 - Sep 7 by Bugs |
The next two games are massive—quite possibly the most important of our season.
Four points would take us to the magic seven after five games. Historically, promoted sides reaching that mark have had an 85%+ chance of survival, with only three relegated during the 20-team Premier League era.
Finish on six points, however, and the historical survival rate drops sharply to just 28.6%. |
Wow that’s an amazing, interesting and slightly frightening stat.
Fine margins indeed.
https://theanalyst.com/article
Link for anyone interested [Post edited 9 Sep 8:37]
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| Not a bad little run coming up on 08:20 - Sep 9 with 422 views | Dubtractor |
Agreed that is as good a run of games that you'll get in this league.
Need to keep realistic, and we'll probably lose more than we win, but we have to get a decent points return from that. |  |
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| Not a bad little run coming up on 08:53 - Sep 9 with 349 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 08:20 - Sep 9 by Dubtractor |
Agreed that is as good a run of games that you'll get in this league.
Need to keep realistic, and we'll probably lose more than we win, but we have to get a decent points return from that. |
Should note that 8 of those 13 games are away from home though. Two of them against Coventry and Hull which represent good chances to notch up away wins. But going away from home is notoriously difficult in the PL. The only teams that won more than 7 away games in the PL last season were Arsenal and Man City!
I think home form is going to be key. Home games in that run and number of PL away games they won last season:
Fulham - 4
Forest - 7
Bournemouth - 6
Villa - 7
Newcastle - 4
Want to be at least W2 D2 L1 from those IMO. But ideally more. [Post edited 9 Sep 8:57]
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| Not a bad little run coming up on 16:41 - Sep 9 with 135 views | unstableblue |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 10:58 - Sep 8 by NthQldITFC |
Using my scheme...
The challenge of staying up is highlighted by the next three games by NthQldITFC 6 Sep 11:10I'm looking at it like this, against our 9 most likely bottom half competitors:
Hul, Cov @home _______6=Win all______
Hul, Cov @away ________4=WD________
Ful, Pal, Sun @home ____9=Win all______[Won 1 already], win against Fulham
Ful, Pal, Sun @away _____4=WDL________Any result at Palace
For, Eve @home ________4=WD_________
For, Eve @away _________2=Draw all_____Draw with Everton
Bou, Lee @home _______3=WL_________
Bou, Lee @away ________2=Draw all_____
...gets us to 34 points, plus extras from an unexpected win somewhere and three draws against top 10 sides gets us to 40. These extras are conservative, so I would expect we'd get a few more points from the top half, maybe 5 or 6, which allows a couple of slip ups in the list above.
On that basis only Fulham at home is a 'must win' but even that is not a must win if, as I say, we pick up more than a paltry 6 points from 18 remaining games against the top 10.
... I'd like to see this:
Palace A (4/3) = 1.3
Everton A = 1
Fulham H = 3
(City) A = 0
Forest H (4/2) = 2
Hull A(4/2) =2
Bournemouth H (3/2) = 1.5
Spurs A = extra 1
Villa H = 0
Coventry A (4/2) = 2
Leeds A = 1
Newcastle H = extra 1
Brighton A = 0
Gives us 16pts plus the 3 we have = 19pts by Christmas. |
Sorry NthQld (your name always makes me think you live in Cairns!) - I’m being a bit thick how is it 1.3 and 1.5 points from two of those games?
I agree with the scheme overall |  |
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| It’s not a bad run… need to have 19 points by the end of it on 16:44 - Sep 9 with 129 views | unstableblue |
We’d have a really good chance of survival if we can hit the 1PPG or higher during that run
Less than that and we may struggle | |
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| Not a bad little run coming up on 16:57 - Sep 9 with 100 views | NthQldITFC |
| Not a bad little run coming up on 16:41 - Sep 9 by unstableblue |
Sorry NthQld (your name always makes me think you live in Cairns!) - I’m being a bit thick how is it 1.3 and 1.5 points from two of those games?
I agree with the scheme overall |
I did indeed used to visit Cairns and its environs a lot.
It's because I've grouped games together by difficulty, so where I've got Fulham, Palace and Sunderland away as a group of three, from which I would expect us to get one win, one draw and one defeat (for four points from three games) 4/3 = 1.3 would be par for the course for one of those games, although of course not actually possible!
If we got three points from Palace away (1.3) and Bournemouth at 'ome (1.5) then we'd be marginally ahead of my schedule. [Post edited 9 Sep 16:58]
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