| Well done the Syrian Army 07:43 - Sep 6 with 10455 views | Guthrum |
They have reached the city of Deir Ezzor, breaking the two-year siege. A very significant blow against Islamic State. |  |
| |  |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 08:00 - Sep 6 with 6250 views | WD19 |
Three cheers for Vladimir Putin..... |  | | |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 08:12 - Sep 6 with 6235 views | Guthrum |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 08:00 - Sep 6 by WD19 |
Three cheers for Vladimir Putin..... |
Well, they couldn't have achieved it without Russian air support and reinforcement by Lebanese Hezbollah fighters.
But it is still a major success and significant stepping stone on the road to the eradication of the "caliphate". Once Raqqa falls, the enclave near Kirkuk and the towns down the Euphrates from Deir Ezzor to the Iraqi border are cleared, then IS will be left with little more than empty desert under their control. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 08:22 - Sep 6 with 6225 views | StokieBlue |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 08:12 - Sep 6 by Guthrum |
Well, they couldn't have achieved it without Russian air support and reinforcement by Lebanese Hezbollah fighters.
But it is still a major success and significant stepping stone on the road to the eradication of the "caliphate". Once Raqqa falls, the enclave near Kirkuk and the towns down the Euphrates from Deir Ezzor to the Iraqi border are cleared, then IS will be left with little more than empty desert under their control. |
Your far better read in the situation than me - what is likely to happen when that happens?
Are we then looking at a military struggle for a Kurdish state or will Syria reform as a single country?
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 11:22 - Sep 6 with 6114 views | Guthrum |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 08:22 - Sep 6 by StokieBlue |
Your far better read in the situation than me - what is likely to happen when that happens?
Are we then looking at a military struggle for a Kurdish state or will Syria reform as a single country?
SB |
Depends upon Assad's thinking and how closely the Kurds remain tied to the US (and vice-versa). Damascus will almost certainly be very keen to keep the country together as a unitary state. The Kurds on their own might be strong enough to defy the Syrian army (tho they lack heavy weapons), but certainly not if the latter is backed by Russian airpower.
Any kind of independent Kurdish state is going to upset Turkey (no friend of Syria) very much, plus Assad's ally Iran would not be very keen (having a Kurdish minority of their own).
Also, Assad still has a civil war to win and an unwelcome Turkish incursion in the north to get rid of.
It could be some time yet before we see which way things are going. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 11:26 - Sep 6 with 6102 views | No9 |
& IF, Mr cameron had got his proposals through would it have prolonged the war with the UK effectvely on ISIS side? |  | | |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:07 - Sep 6 with 6030 views | caught-in-limbo |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 11:22 - Sep 6 by Guthrum |
Depends upon Assad's thinking and how closely the Kurds remain tied to the US (and vice-versa). Damascus will almost certainly be very keen to keep the country together as a unitary state. The Kurds on their own might be strong enough to defy the Syrian army (tho they lack heavy weapons), but certainly not if the latter is backed by Russian airpower.
Any kind of independent Kurdish state is going to upset Turkey (no friend of Syria) very much, plus Assad's ally Iran would not be very keen (having a Kurdish minority of their own).
Also, Assad still has a civil war to win and an unwelcome Turkish incursion in the north to get rid of.
It could be some time yet before we see which way things are going. |
As you point out things rest heavily on the Kurdish situation, and the US and Turkey are the major players here. Israel and Saudi Arabia remain as other actors in the stability of the area, so we can expect Iran and Hezbollah's involvement when their latest interests become apparent. I believe there are elements of US foreign policy that want to make a Kosovo out of Kurdistan and therefore expect to see plenty from the western press to stir up the situation there using all the tools at their disposal.
The expulsion of IS from Syria will not, unfortunately, mean peace in the region as long as the energy and geographical interests of the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel remain as they are - which they will. [Post edited 6 Sep 2017 13:20]
|  |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:08 - Sep 6 with 6020 views | caught-in-limbo |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 08:00 - Sep 6 by WD19 |
Three cheers for Vladimir Putin..... |
and the SAA. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:18 - Sep 6 with 5996 views | lowhouseblue |
what has south african airways done? |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:29 - Sep 6 with 5971 views | Guthrum |
It was the Syrian Arab Army to which I was referring, just thought a lot of people wouldn't know they are Assad's forces. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:36 - Sep 6 with 5961 views | caught-in-limbo |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:29 - Sep 6 by Guthrum |
It was the Syrian Arab Army to which I was referring, just thought a lot of people wouldn't know they are Assad's forces. |
No criticism of you or your knowledge here, but it alarms me that a lot of people wouldn't know that the Syrian Arab Army are Assad's forces. That suggests an enormous level of ignorance about what has actually been going on in Syria since early 2011. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:38 - Sep 6 with 5962 views | Guthrum |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 11:26 - Sep 6 by No9 |
& IF, Mr cameron had got his proposals through would it have prolonged the war with the UK effectvely on ISIS side? |
No. At that point, in August 2013, IS were still only a minor faction within the regional al Qaeda setup. If Assad had been forced to the negotiating table then (by no means guaranteed, mind), there wouldn't have been a vacuum for them to exploit.
Or the whole thing could have dissolved into a Libyan-style dogs dinner with IS, in some form or other, causing trouble on the fringes.
Edit: I should add that regime change is legally very dubious and rarely an entirely good idea. [Post edited 6 Sep 2017 13:42]
| |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:41 - Sep 6 with 5948 views | Ryorry |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:36 - Sep 6 by caught-in-limbo |
No criticism of you or your knowledge here, but it alarms me that a lot of people wouldn't know that the Syrian Arab Army are Assad's forces. That suggests an enormous level of ignorance about what has actually been going on in Syria since early 2011. |
There's so much of complexity going on in so many places round the world that it's impossible to keep up with everything if you have an average-ly busy life. Some people may manage it for a couple of regions, and others for other regions, but no-one except Guthers and yourself seem to manage it for all areas! |  |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:53 - Sep 6 with 5928 views | Guthrum |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:07 - Sep 6 by caught-in-limbo |
As you point out things rest heavily on the Kurdish situation, and the US and Turkey are the major players here. Israel and Saudi Arabia remain as other actors in the stability of the area, so we can expect Iran and Hezbollah's involvement when their latest interests become apparent. I believe there are elements of US foreign policy that want to make a Kosovo out of Kurdistan and therefore expect to see plenty from the western press to stir up the situation there using all the tools at their disposal.
The expulsion of IS from Syria will not, unfortunately, mean peace in the region as long as the energy and geographical interests of the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel remain as they are - which they will. [Post edited 6 Sep 2017 13:20]
|
Israel probably less interested than most, as long as Hezbollah don't gain too much from the situation. They're just happy that Syria is weak and everyone else distracted.
The Saudis have the problem on their southern border in Yemen and strife with Qatar. Plus they don't want to fall out with the US over supporting Sunni islamists. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:59 - Sep 6 with 5915 views | blue_oyster |
It certainly does look like the beginning of the end for ISIS, having lost their capital for their 'caliphate' and apparently having lost their leader also. If they are wiped out, then surely this will mean the end of *all* terrorist attacks in Britain, which are now apparently caused 100% by ISIS? |  |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 14:07 - Sep 6 with 5905 views | WeWereZombies |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:53 - Sep 6 by Guthrum |
Israel probably less interested than most, as long as Hezbollah don't gain too much from the situation. They're just happy that Syria is weak and everyone else distracted.
The Saudis have the problem on their southern border in Yemen and strife with Qatar. Plus they don't want to fall out with the US over supporting Sunni islamists. |
The other concern is that IS fighters will be able to escape and increase conflict in other parts of the World, personally I fear for Mali, Chad, Niger and Mauritania in these circumstances but there are also incursions in Indonesia and the Philippines that have desperate consequences, both for the locals who get overrun by IS or one of their offshoots and the locals who get caught up in retaliatory action by heavy handed government forces. |  |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 14:12 - Sep 6 with 5899 views | Guthrum |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:59 - Sep 6 by blue_oyster |
It certainly does look like the beginning of the end for ISIS, having lost their capital for their 'caliphate' and apparently having lost their leader also. If they are wiped out, then surely this will mean the end of *all* terrorist attacks in Britain, which are now apparently caused 100% by ISIS? |
Not likely. The majority of Islamist attacks may be inspired by IS at the moment, but there are plenty of other groups waiting to step into the limelight and happy to use terrorism to push their cause.
There might be some slackening in the rate of plots for a while.
But another problem is that IS have developed new, low-tech methods, stabbings and vehicle attacks, which can be easily and cheaply adopted even by radicalised "lone wolves" with no logistic or training backup. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 14:21 - Sep 6 with 5870 views | Guthrum |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 14:07 - Sep 6 by WeWereZombies |
The other concern is that IS fighters will be able to escape and increase conflict in other parts of the World, personally I fear for Mali, Chad, Niger and Mauritania in these circumstances but there are also incursions in Indonesia and the Philippines that have desperate consequences, both for the locals who get overrun by IS or one of their offshoots and the locals who get caught up in retaliatory action by heavy handed government forces. |
Same old same old. Many of Islamic State's fighters in the early days were veterans of Chechniya, the Balkans, Afghanistan and North Africa. By coming and fighting in the open, a lot of the most experienced men have been killed (particularly as they have repeatedly been surrounded), but there is still a cadre of "professional jihadis".
The situation in the Philippines is one where an existing, long-running insurgency has adopted the name, rather than an influx of personnel. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 14:34 - Sep 6 with 5852 views | WeWereZombies |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 14:21 - Sep 6 by Guthrum |
Same old same old. Many of Islamic State's fighters in the early days were veterans of Chechniya, the Balkans, Afghanistan and North Africa. By coming and fighting in the open, a lot of the most experienced men have been killed (particularly as they have repeatedly been surrounded), but there is still a cadre of "professional jihadis".
The situation in the Philippines is one where an existing, long-running insurgency has adopted the name, rather than an influx of personnel. |
Well, so far The Philippines has, as far as we can trust news reports for completeness, no IS influx. Likewise this crisis with the Rohingya in Myanmar - but that could have been said about Mali a decade ago. IS were able to exploit the division between the Tuareg and the rest of the country and gain control of areas to the detriment of both the existing, well belligerents is too harsh a description, parties. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 14:46 - Sep 6 with 5830 views | Clapham_Junction |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 11:22 - Sep 6 by Guthrum |
Depends upon Assad's thinking and how closely the Kurds remain tied to the US (and vice-versa). Damascus will almost certainly be very keen to keep the country together as a unitary state. The Kurds on their own might be strong enough to defy the Syrian army (tho they lack heavy weapons), but certainly not if the latter is backed by Russian airpower.
Any kind of independent Kurdish state is going to upset Turkey (no friend of Syria) very much, plus Assad's ally Iran would not be very keen (having a Kurdish minority of their own).
Also, Assad still has a civil war to win and an unwelcome Turkish incursion in the north to get rid of.
It could be some time yet before we see which way things are going. |
The Iraqi Kurds are planning on having an independence referendum later this month and the Iraqi PM is on record as saying he supports their right to have a vote, although is not happy with the timing.
The result is not really in doubt, but it's not clear whether they will actually declare independence afterwards. If they do, and the Iraqi government recognise it, it will be interesting to see whether their Syrian counterparts try to attach themselves to the new state. The Turkish response to what would potentially be a legitimate Kurdish state is another question mark. |  | | |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 14:56 - Sep 6 with 5812 views | caught-in-limbo |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 13:41 - Sep 6 by Ryorry |
There's so much of complexity going on in so many places round the world that it's impossible to keep up with everything if you have an average-ly busy life. Some people may manage it for a couple of regions, and others for other regions, but no-one except Guthers and yourself seem to manage it for all areas! |
Perhaps you're right. Or perhaps it might be because of the language used to describe certain groups is done in such a way so as to muddy normal people's understanding of what is actually going on, or better still encourage as many people to just write them all off as being a bad lot.
In a war which has seen Jihadists (Al Qaida) butchering innocents in Syria, it should be easy to know who to side with. Less so if Al Qaida is given a new acronym every month ( Al Nusra, IS, ISIL, ISIS, Ahrar ash-Sham, Asala wa-al-Tanmiya, Jaysh al-Islam, Jaish al-Fatah**) and those defending Syria* are labelled "forces loyal to Assad". It's yet another example of the way the media (all media) mould people's understanding. It's propaganda, it's deliberate and it's very effective, but we don't like to admit it because we are free, we have a free press and we believe our governments to be essentially good (if not always honest).
*The SAA.
**I have intentionally not included the Free Syrian Army in the list of Jihadists, because they were used largely by western media and governments alike to put a highly respectable face on the opposition to the Assad government and were used as a conduit to arm jihadist groups. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 15:06 - Sep 6 with 5794 views | caught-in-limbo |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 14:46 - Sep 6 by Clapham_Junction |
The Iraqi Kurds are planning on having an independence referendum later this month and the Iraqi PM is on record as saying he supports their right to have a vote, although is not happy with the timing.
The result is not really in doubt, but it's not clear whether they will actually declare independence afterwards. If they do, and the Iraqi government recognise it, it will be interesting to see whether their Syrian counterparts try to attach themselves to the new state. The Turkish response to what would potentially be a legitimate Kurdish state is another question mark. |
You can sure as hell guarantee that the US, EU, UK, Israel and a variety of Gulf States will also recognise an independent Kurdistan. Not only will they recognise it, but they will arm it to the teeth and perhaps offer their services in a Camp Bondsteel (Kosovo) kind of way. This will throw the region into absolute chaos, but the whole thing will be sold as humanitarian, stabilising and just.
Who really wants stability in the Middle East? | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 15:11 - Sep 6 with 5789 views | Ryorry |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 15:06 - Sep 6 by caught-in-limbo |
You can sure as hell guarantee that the US, EU, UK, Israel and a variety of Gulf States will also recognise an independent Kurdistan. Not only will they recognise it, but they will arm it to the teeth and perhaps offer their services in a Camp Bondsteel (Kosovo) kind of way. This will throw the region into absolute chaos, but the whole thing will be sold as humanitarian, stabilising and just.
Who really wants stability in the Middle East? |
Me! 
And a few billion others I'm guessing ... | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 15:24 - Sep 6 with 5765 views | caught-in-limbo |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 15:11 - Sep 6 by Ryorry |
Me!
And a few billion others I'm guessing ... |
Then don't buy into the stories that you will soon be subjected to detailing atrocities committed against Kurds and the need for a humanitarian disaster to be avoided which can only happen with the creation of a Kurdish state and with it a humongous US military base right between Iraq and Syria or bordering Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria. That will not promote stability in the Middle East. | |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 15:26 - Sep 6 with 5761 views | StokieBlue |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 15:24 - Sep 6 by caught-in-limbo |
Then don't buy into the stories that you will soon be subjected to detailing atrocities committed against Kurds and the need for a humanitarian disaster to be avoided which can only happen with the creation of a Kurdish state and with it a humongous US military base right between Iraq and Syria or bordering Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria. That will not promote stability in the Middle East. |
I know you are more versed that me on this subject so I'll ask you:
1) Why shouldn't the kurds have their own state? They are a minority in 3/4 countries. It would also stop the PKK and such like I would have thought?
2) The US already has "humongous" military bases in the area, I don't see why getting another one in an independent Kurdistan would be a priority for them. They also don't really need one - one carrier group is more than enough for total air superiority in the region.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
| |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 15:29 - Sep 6 with 5757 views | Ryorry |
| Well done the Syrian Army on 15:24 - Sep 6 by caught-in-limbo |
Then don't buy into the stories that you will soon be subjected to detailing atrocities committed against Kurds and the need for a humanitarian disaster to be avoided which can only happen with the creation of a Kurdish state and with it a humongous US military base right between Iraq and Syria or bordering Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria. That will not promote stability in the Middle East. |
I'll bookmark this prophecy for checking out, if you could give me an eta pls - year? 5? 10? thanks .. ;/ | |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
