| The case for Burgess 13:00 - Nov 8 with 1645 views | FrimleyBlue |
Lots of talk about ball distribution. Some saying we are better and score more when he doesn't play.
Some saying the Charlton game is the only reason people want to see him back in.
Now. Last season. I didn't rate Burgess. Quite the opposite. But he did indeed get better.
This season before injury
Games in which Burgess started. (6)
Goals scored 15
Goals conceded 2
Starts last night.
3 Goals scored
0 conceded
Edmundson..
15 games. 5 cleansheets
30 Goals scored 18 conceded.
I understand preferences. But I don't think it's right to say that removing 1 for Burgess means we are losing something that makes us as good as we have been. I'd suggest it would bring us even more rewards and more commanding and controlled success.
It's great that we have the option to make the choice.. but for me I can see why KM 'may' bring Burgess back alongside wolfy.
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| The case for Burgess on 13:13 - Nov 8 with 1533 views | Basuco |
I think that the most important CB is Wolfy. Burgess or Edmunson are both very good solid defenders, maybe Burgess better in the air, but Wolfy carries the ball forward so much better, for me it does not matter which of those two is along side Wolfy. |  | | |
| The case for Burgess on 13:39 - Nov 8 with 1484 views | StokieBlue |
That's a very simplistic analysis, almost meaningless unless you normalise the data. Off the top of my head:
- Normalise for the number of matches
- Account for opposition: quality, form
- Account for home/away advantages
- Account for attacking play: goals scored, passes forward, dribbles out of defence
- Account for Towns form at the time
- Account for goals after substitutions (Edmundson wasn't even on the pitch for some of those goals)
I think it's almost pointless to include last night's match in the stats, it was against a tier 7 side, not Bayern Munich.
Why wouldn't Wolf make way for Edmundson? Is there a case to discuss about Edmundson moving over and Burgess coming in for Wolf (I don't think there is btw)?
I just think there is an awful lot of motivated reasoning going on here.
It is however very good to have options as you've highlighted.
SB [Post edited 8 Nov 2022 13:40]
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| The case for Burgess on 14:04 - Nov 8 with 1417 views | FrimleyBlue |
| The case for Burgess on 13:39 - Nov 8 by StokieBlue |
That's a very simplistic analysis, almost meaningless unless you normalise the data. Off the top of my head:
- Normalise for the number of matches
- Account for opposition: quality, form
- Account for home/away advantages
- Account for attacking play: goals scored, passes forward, dribbles out of defence
- Account for Towns form at the time
- Account for goals after substitutions (Edmundson wasn't even on the pitch for some of those goals)
I think it's almost pointless to include last night's match in the stats, it was against a tier 7 side, not Bayern Munich.
Why wouldn't Wolf make way for Edmundson? Is there a case to discuss about Edmundson moving over and Burgess coming in for Wolf (I don't think there is btw)?
I just think there is an awful lot of motivated reasoning going on here.
It is however very good to have options as you've highlighted.
SB [Post edited 8 Nov 2022 13:40]
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"motivated reasoning going on here."
I don't get that tbh SB, I'd understand if Burgess was one i loved since day one, but it was by far the opposite as mentioned most games at the time... IF i'm honest,if there's motivated reasoning, I think it's more your side regarding Edmundson.
But, whilst some are happy to point out Burgess weaknesses - they appear to ignore those weaknesses of the other defenders, it's quite puzzling.
Wolfenden gets the nod ahead of Edmundson for me as he is 'the' ball playing CB, George is ok, but he's not a natural or on the same level as Wolfy imo.
"Account for goals after substitutions (Edmundson wasn't even on the pitch for some of those goals)"
There has been 0 games this season, where Edmundson has been subbed - and then we've conceded goals. | |
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| The case for Burgess on 14:09 - Nov 8 with 1390 views | RobTheMonk |
I personally like have a left footed centre back. Gives the defence that little bit more balance.
Whatever way you look at it, it's good to be having these conversations as we have proper competition for places. |  | | |
| The case for Burgess on 14:13 - Nov 8 with 1372 views | StokieBlue |
| The case for Burgess on 14:04 - Nov 8 by FrimleyBlue |
"motivated reasoning going on here."
I don't get that tbh SB, I'd understand if Burgess was one i loved since day one, but it was by far the opposite as mentioned most games at the time... IF i'm honest,if there's motivated reasoning, I think it's more your side regarding Edmundson.
But, whilst some are happy to point out Burgess weaknesses - they appear to ignore those weaknesses of the other defenders, it's quite puzzling.
Wolfenden gets the nod ahead of Edmundson for me as he is 'the' ball playing CB, George is ok, but he's not a natural or on the same level as Wolfy imo.
"Account for goals after substitutions (Edmundson wasn't even on the pitch for some of those goals)"
There has been 0 games this season, where Edmundson has been subbed - and then we've conceded goals. |
It's motivated reasoning as you've decided what should happen and then tried to make a case with a simplistic analysis which is I believe is statistically flawed.
I think you should have at least attempted to address my concerns with the analysis rather than ignore them completely.
My mistake on Edmundson, he's certainly been moved with regards to position after substitutions.
I do think that Edmundson is better than Burgess with regards to how McKenna wants to play football. I guess we will see over the rest of the season.
On Wolf, he massively benefits from being able to use his best foot in nearly all circumstances, I don't think he would do as well if he had to cope on the left like Edmundson. It's another normalisation for which we unfortunately don't have the data.
SB | |
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| The case for Burgess on 14:29 - Nov 8 with 1330 views | FrimleyBlue |
| The case for Burgess on 14:13 - Nov 8 by StokieBlue |
It's motivated reasoning as you've decided what should happen and then tried to make a case with a simplistic analysis which is I believe is statistically flawed.
I think you should have at least attempted to address my concerns with the analysis rather than ignore them completely.
My mistake on Edmundson, he's certainly been moved with regards to position after substitutions.
I do think that Edmundson is better than Burgess with regards to how McKenna wants to play football. I guess we will see over the rest of the season.
On Wolf, he massively benefits from being able to use his best foot in nearly all circumstances, I don't think he would do as well if he had to cope on the left like Edmundson. It's another normalisation for which we unfortunately don't have the data.
SB |
Unfortunately I wouldn't know where to obtain such info SB. Can only go on the info I could look up.
Someone might be able to tho. | |
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| The case for Burgess on 16:11 - Nov 8 with 1151 views | Pinewoodblue |
| The case for Burgess on 14:29 - Nov 8 by FrimleyBlue |
Unfortunately I wouldn't know where to obtain such info SB. Can only go on the info I could look up.
Someone might be able to tho. |
Have you split the games into home and Away to see if your argument holds? |  |
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| The case for Burgess on 16:59 - Nov 8 with 1109 views | Vaughan8 |
As others have said, very hard to judge.
When Burgess has been out, we've played Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Derby and Charlton. 3 of those away.
Edmundson even played against Barnsley (EDIT and Bolton) at home with Burgess on the bench (another team in the top 8) [Post edited 8 Nov 2022 17:01]
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| The case for Burgess on 19:35 - Nov 8 with 960 views | StokieBlue |
| The case for Burgess on 16:59 - Nov 8 by Vaughan8 |
As others have said, very hard to judge.
When Burgess has been out, we've played Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Derby and Charlton. 3 of those away.
Edmundson even played against Barnsley (EDIT and Bolton) at home with Burgess on the bench (another team in the top 8) [Post edited 8 Nov 2022 17:01]
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Indeed, when looking more deeply at the actual fixtures and the other items I listed the original analysis looks very flawed.
SB | |
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