| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? 09:46 - Mar 10 with 2560 views | DJR |
Fascinating article in this week's Economist, which is paywalled (but to which I have access).
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/03/09/britain-has-endured-a-decade-of-ear
The following passage explains the position, and the Economist puts the situation down to three factors, in addition to problems in the NHS with regard to treatment, namely, failings in diagnosis, failings in prevention (including real terms cuts to public health budgets) and, what it regards as the greatest factor, deprivation.
"By our calculations, [250,000] is the number of extra deaths Britain has suffered, compared with similar countries such as France and Denmark. The reason is that, in the early 2010s, life expectancy stalled in Britain compared with long-run trends and other countries. This slowdown in life expectancy struck all age groups, not just the elderly. And it disproportionately affected the poor. If you travel just 10km (six miles) from the poshest part of Kensington in London to New Cross Gate, life expectancy for men falls by a staggering 18 years, from 92 to 74. The burden these deaths place on the living is not just weighed in grief. When more people are dying and life expectancy is stagnating, a greater number of people are also living in ill health.
Life expectancy in Britain, as in almost all other rich countries, had been rising for nearly two centuries. But something went wrong in the early 2010s. Life expectancy at birth today, at 81, is just eight weeks longer than it was in 2011. In a best-case scenario, in which the pace of improvement between 1980 and 2011 had been sustained, life expectancy today would have been over 83. By The Economist’s calculations, that is no minor difference: it implies that between 2012 and 2022 approximately 700,000 Britons died sooner than they might have.
Two features make this figure even more worrying. Death comes mostly when people are old. But the slowdown in life expectancy has occurred across all age groups. Mortality rates have stalled for infants, and risen among young adults and the middle-aged. Death rates for 30- to 49-year-olds have steadily increased in Britain since around 2012, in sharp contrast with neighbouring countries.
Although the deaths have been spread across generations, they have not been spread across the income spectrum. Life expectancy has fallen among the poorest in society but risen for the richest. A poor English girl could on average expect to live 6.8 years less than a rich girl in 2011, but 7.7 less in 2017. For boys, the gap increased from 9.1 to 9.5 years over the same period.
The combined effect of the pandemic and global demographic trends can explain only some of Britain’s missing multitude. Though other rich countries have also experienced slowdowns, Britain has done the worst out of a cohort of its European peers. After stripping out the effects attributable to covid and the broad European slowdown from the toll of 700,000, you are still left with those 250,000 unexplained deaths."
[Post edited 10 Mar 2023 9:58]
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 09:52 - Mar 10 with 2019 views | DJR |
I forgot to say, given this article, that it is a scandal that the government are still committed to increases in the state pension age, and are even considering accelerating them.
What makes increases in the pension age even more unfair is that they disproportionately affect the poor, who are not guaranteed a long and healthy retirement. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 9:57]
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:00 - Mar 10 with 1969 views | DJR |
I might have added. But what about Gary Lineker? | | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:10 - Mar 10 with 1943 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
I was reading the same article this morning, very interesting and perhaps unsurprising. A decade of underfunding the NHS is always going to have long term health impacts. The economy never really recovered from the GFC but that can’t be the root cause as the Eurozone was lumbered with sun zero interest rates for years. That suggests that lack of public investment in the UK led to declining living standards here (and notably also the US).
Also some shocking stats regarding Scotland as drug death capital of Europe and 4 times higher than England and Wales. Im sure that will all change rapidly when they “take back control”. |  | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:22 - Mar 10 with 1914 views | Churchman |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 09:52 - Mar 10 by DJR |
I forgot to say, given this article, that it is a scandal that the government are still committed to increases in the state pension age, and are even considering accelerating them.
What makes increases in the pension age even more unfair is that they disproportionately affect the poor, who are not guaranteed a long and healthy retirement. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 9:57]
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Spot on with all of this.
Sometimes circumstances like pandemics are to a degree out of your control. But how you deal with them, where you put your priorities certainly are in your control.
Yes, state pension age (work till you drop) affects the poor disproportionately. But then according to Victorian tory philosophy, the poor are deserving. To the tories it’s a lifestyle choice. ‘get a better paid job’, ‘get a second job’. In other words, the choice is yours. Wrong. On every level wrong. It was wrong in the 19c where the victorians called it ‘removable inequalities’, just as it is now.
In 1843 A Christmas Carol was published. Scrooge basically says that if the poor cannot provide for themselves they should die and ‘decrease the surplus population’. 180 years on, does anyone think the likes of JRM and Duncan-Smith think any different? Of course not. They’ve learned nothing and know nothing beyond shoving their noses in the trough..
In terms of public Heath, the pursuit of ‘small state’, the run down and flogging off of public services has been a deliberate active policy. They actively chose to cut public health funding and to accelerate (axing rate support grant) then ignore the fracturing of social care provision. Early deaths, a falling of life expectancy is no problem to our government because it doesn’t affect them. They’re not the least bit interested.
I read a lot about the ‘wealth’ of this country. They fail to mention that no developed country has wealth concentrated in such a small percentage of people. The very people the tories are and represent. The rest of the plebs? Make your own arrangements. And be grateful for crumbs from the table and that you can work until you die early.
Trickle down economics. Long since proven not to work. Sustained by the Tories because it benefits their personal wealth.
They are intolerant and ignorant. The sooner they’re gone the better.
Spectacular rant complete. |  | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:29 - Mar 10 with 1900 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 09:52 - Mar 10 by DJR |
I forgot to say, given this article, that it is a scandal that the government are still committed to increases in the state pension age, and are even considering accelerating them.
What makes increases in the pension age even more unfair is that they disproportionately affect the poor, who are not guaranteed a long and healthy retirement. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 9:57]
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Though state pension ages are increasing to 67+ across Western Europe- Germany, France, Spain, Italy etc. it’s not unique to the UK - with increasing life expectancy they are simply not sustainable, we either pay more tax or work longer. | | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:43 - Mar 10 with 1879 views | Churchman |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:29 - Mar 10 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Though state pension ages are increasing to 67+ across Western Europe- Germany, France, Spain, Italy etc. it’s not unique to the UK - with increasing life expectancy they are simply not sustainable, we either pay more tax or work longer. |
France is raising state pension age to 64 from 62 by 2030 - if the locals allow them to do it! Not exactly the same as here. They seem to be ok too. They’ve even got shelves groaning with fresh food - I don’t think a minister there is recommending the plebs eat turnips.
How about investing in people, infrastructure and plant. Increase productivity maybe? Increase productivity = increase taxes = paying for public services. In other words it’s not a straight choice between cuts and tax in the longer term. But then we don’t invest in anything, do we, so maybe it is.
Yes, Germany and Italy it is or will be 67, and for the U.K. that’s already planned in. I bet within no time the govt will raise it into the 70s. | | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:55 - Mar 10 with 1842 views | longtimefan |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 09:52 - Mar 10 by DJR |
I forgot to say, given this article, that it is a scandal that the government are still committed to increases in the state pension age, and are even considering accelerating them.
What makes increases in the pension age even more unfair is that they disproportionately affect the poor, who are not guaranteed a long and healthy retirement. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 9:57]
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Though I agree with your sentiment, I think it's fair to say, no one is "guaranteed" a long and healthy retirement. | | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:57 - Mar 10 with 1842 views | DJR |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:29 - Mar 10 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Though state pension ages are increasing to 67+ across Western Europe- Germany, France, Spain, Italy etc. it’s not unique to the UK - with increasing life expectancy they are simply not sustainable, we either pay more tax or work longer. |
But the article says there isn't increased life expectancy in this country.
The justification in this country for increases in the state pension age are increasing life expectancy, but how can that be justified if we no longer have increased life expectancy because the burden on the tax payer won't increase?
Other countries may have not dissimilar retirement ages, but the article would suggest they still have rising life expectancy to justify this, and I doubt many have a large section of the population who won't have a long and healthy retirement.
At the end of the day further increases in the state pension age will be down to the fact that the Tories have destroyed the economy and have to balance the books in any way they can. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 10:58]
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:01 - Mar 10 with 1833 views | DJR |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:10 - Mar 10 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
I was reading the same article this morning, very interesting and perhaps unsurprising. A decade of underfunding the NHS is always going to have long term health impacts. The economy never really recovered from the GFC but that can’t be the root cause as the Eurozone was lumbered with sun zero interest rates for years. That suggests that lack of public investment in the UK led to declining living standards here (and notably also the US).
Also some shocking stats regarding Scotland as drug death capital of Europe and 4 times higher than England and Wales. Im sure that will all change rapidly when they “take back control”. |
I think public health (or the lack of it) also plays a very large part. Very early on in the Cameron government, spending on government advertising was cut to zero which clearly had an impact on public health information. At the same time public health was downgraded as a priority, and coupled with that we have had to endure Tory objection to the nanny state which hasn't helped. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 11:02]
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:04 - Mar 10 with 1814 views | DJR |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:55 - Mar 10 by longtimefan |
Though I agree with your sentiment, I think it's fair to say, no one is "guaranteed" a long and healthy retirement. |
That's certainly true, but your chances are obviously helped if you come from a more privileged position.
"If you travel just 10km (six miles) from the poshest part of Kensington in London to New Cross Gate, life expectancy for men falls by a staggering 18 years, from 92 to 74." [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 11:07]
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:08 - Mar 10 with 1794 views | Churchman |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:55 - Mar 10 by longtimefan |
Though I agree with your sentiment, I think it's fair to say, no one is "guaranteed" a long and healthy retirement. |
There are no guarantees in anything in life. But if you lower peoples’ life expectancy while increasing pension age you certainly will cut your state pension bill.
Oh, another idea: how about employing more tax specialists to close the tax gap and also increase numbers to go after proceeds of serious crime? Both these areas have been slashed in the past 13 years. They call it ‘efficiencies’. Nothing efficient about that. What they mean is cuts. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 11:09]
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:22 - Mar 10 with 1743 views | DJR |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:04 - Mar 10 by DJR |
That's certainly true, but your chances are obviously helped if you come from a more privileged position.
"If you travel just 10km (six miles) from the poshest part of Kensington in London to New Cross Gate, life expectancy for men falls by a staggering 18 years, from 92 to 74." [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 11:07]
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The irony of these figures is that many of those in the poshest parts of Kensington can often ease off from working when they reach 60 and so could expect 32 years of semi-retirement or retirement, whereas those in New Cross Gate might be forced to work into 70s, and so might only enjoy a couple of years of retirement. And even before retirement, they may well suffer ill-health, which is much less likely for those from a privileged background. | | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:25 - Mar 10 with 1734 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:22 - Mar 10 by DJR |
The irony of these figures is that many of those in the poshest parts of Kensington can often ease off from working when they reach 60 and so could expect 32 years of semi-retirement or retirement, whereas those in New Cross Gate might be forced to work into 70s, and so might only enjoy a couple of years of retirement. And even before retirement, they may well suffer ill-health, which is much less likely for those from a privileged background. |
Plus it ignores how difficult it is to find employment at such and advanced age - meaning more people falling into poverty.
Not only that but the wealthy are more likely to be able to afford private healthcare, and therefore not worry about waiting for treatment. | | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:34 - Mar 10 with 1716 views | DJR |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:25 - Mar 10 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Plus it ignores how difficult it is to find employment at such and advanced age - meaning more people falling into poverty.
Not only that but the wealthy are more likely to be able to afford private healthcare, and therefore not worry about waiting for treatment. |
Absolutely.
And just imagine those who do manual work (such as builders) having to work that bit longer.
I had a wall constructed at my house 10 years ago. The two men who did it would have been in their early 60s but had opted to be employees of the building firm rather than be subbies because whilst it meant less pay, it meant a slightly easier life. But they would only have waited to 65 to get their state pension, | | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:41 - Mar 10 with 1697 views | Guthrum |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:01 - Mar 10 by DJR |
I think public health (or the lack of it) also plays a very large part. Very early on in the Cameron government, spending on government advertising was cut to zero which clearly had an impact on public health information. At the same time public health was downgraded as a priority, and coupled with that we have had to endure Tory objection to the nanny state which hasn't helped. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 11:02]
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Poorer diets, sedentary lifestyles, binge-watching TV as a leisure pastime. Also mental health taking a battering from lack of provision and external circumstances (stress, lockdown, financial pressure, bad news). |  |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:46 - Mar 10 with 1683 views | DJR |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:10 - Mar 10 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
I was reading the same article this morning, very interesting and perhaps unsurprising. A decade of underfunding the NHS is always going to have long term health impacts. The economy never really recovered from the GFC but that can’t be the root cause as the Eurozone was lumbered with sun zero interest rates for years. That suggests that lack of public investment in the UK led to declining living standards here (and notably also the US).
Also some shocking stats regarding Scotland as drug death capital of Europe and 4 times higher than England and Wales. Im sure that will all change rapidly when they “take back control”. |
I think there are deep rooted problems in Scotland with regard to addiction which are extremely difficult to solve.
I think poverty plays a part, but there also seems a tendency to problems with addiction in other countries in northern Europe, such as Norway and Russia, which may suggest the gloomy weather and long winters play a part. As a result Norway strictly controls alcohol sales, and it is interesting to note that in 2002 Oslo earned the title Drugs Capital of Europe. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 11:53]
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 12:02 - Mar 10 with 1617 views | homer_123 |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:41 - Mar 10 by Guthrum |
Poorer diets, sedentary lifestyles, binge-watching TV as a leisure pastime. Also mental health taking a battering from lack of provision and external circumstances (stress, lockdown, financial pressure, bad news). |
The first of those are all very much within the sphere of control of us individuals.
Mental health (moreover the support for those struggling) is where the gov is really lacking, especially considering the long term outcomes of the pandemic. |  |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 12:04 - Mar 10 with 1606 views | homer_123 |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:46 - Mar 10 by DJR |
I think there are deep rooted problems in Scotland with regard to addiction which are extremely difficult to solve.
I think poverty plays a part, but there also seems a tendency to problems with addiction in other countries in northern Europe, such as Norway and Russia, which may suggest the gloomy weather and long winters play a part. As a result Norway strictly controls alcohol sales, and it is interesting to note that in 2002 Oslo earned the title Drugs Capital of Europe. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 11:53]
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Social mobility going backwards in the UK. | |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 12:07 - Mar 10 with 1588 views | Darth_Koont |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:46 - Mar 10 by DJR |
I think there are deep rooted problems in Scotland with regard to addiction which are extremely difficult to solve.
I think poverty plays a part, but there also seems a tendency to problems with addiction in other countries in northern Europe, such as Norway and Russia, which may suggest the gloomy weather and long winters play a part. As a result Norway strictly controls alcohol sales, and it is interesting to note that in 2002 Oslo earned the title Drugs Capital of Europe. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 11:53]
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Indeed.
And the increase is predominantly due to the deaths of the long-term addicts that came from the IV drug explosion in Scotland in the 80s and 90s. Casualties of the first wave of decline under the Tories then finished off by the second wave.
Ironically, the next factor is called the Blue Plague (colour of the pills not of the right-wing state leaving the poor and disadvantaged to fend and fail for themselves) where the dangerous mix of opioids and “street valium” is as Scottish a combination as haggis, neaps and tatties. And the combo of choice for the long-standing addict. |  |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 12:17 - Mar 10 with 1533 views | Darth_Koont |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:22 - Mar 10 by Churchman |
Spot on with all of this.
Sometimes circumstances like pandemics are to a degree out of your control. But how you deal with them, where you put your priorities certainly are in your control.
Yes, state pension age (work till you drop) affects the poor disproportionately. But then according to Victorian tory philosophy, the poor are deserving. To the tories it’s a lifestyle choice. ‘get a better paid job’, ‘get a second job’. In other words, the choice is yours. Wrong. On every level wrong. It was wrong in the 19c where the victorians called it ‘removable inequalities’, just as it is now.
In 1843 A Christmas Carol was published. Scrooge basically says that if the poor cannot provide for themselves they should die and ‘decrease the surplus population’. 180 years on, does anyone think the likes of JRM and Duncan-Smith think any different? Of course not. They’ve learned nothing and know nothing beyond shoving their noses in the trough..
In terms of public Heath, the pursuit of ‘small state’, the run down and flogging off of public services has been a deliberate active policy. They actively chose to cut public health funding and to accelerate (axing rate support grant) then ignore the fracturing of social care provision. Early deaths, a falling of life expectancy is no problem to our government because it doesn’t affect them. They’re not the least bit interested.
I read a lot about the ‘wealth’ of this country. They fail to mention that no developed country has wealth concentrated in such a small percentage of people. The very people the tories are and represent. The rest of the plebs? Make your own arrangements. And be grateful for crumbs from the table and that you can work until you die early.
Trickle down economics. Long since proven not to work. Sustained by the Tories because it benefits their personal wealth.
They are intolerant and ignorant. The sooner they’re gone the better.
Spectacular rant complete. |
Agree wholeheartedly.
That’s why I have a real problem with an opposition/government-in-waiting that will at best tweak around the edges but is fundamentally not going to challenge let alone change that existing settlement and status quo. | |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 12:28 - Mar 10 with 1495 views | Keno |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 10:29 - Mar 10 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Though state pension ages are increasing to 67+ across Western Europe- Germany, France, Spain, Italy etc. it’s not unique to the UK - with increasing life expectancy they are simply not sustainable, we either pay more tax or work longer. |
when you say "with increasing life expectancy" are you aware average life expectancy pre covid had started to reduce? |  |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 13:40 - Mar 10 with 1413 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 12:28 - Mar 10 by Keno |
when you say "with increasing life expectancy" are you aware average life expectancy pre covid had started to reduce? |
Despite the recent drop, long term projections suggest UK life expectancy will continue to grow. | | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 14:08 - Mar 10 with 1391 views | DJR |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 13:40 - Mar 10 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Despite the recent drop, long term projections suggest UK life expectancy will continue to grow. |
The only thing I have come across is the following from the Kings' Fund, which suggests any such long term projections are rather optimistic, but no doubt they will be relied on by the government to raise the state pension age.
"With the exception of the US, the UK’s pre-pandemic life expectancy was lower than in many comparator countries for males and was the lowest for females, and it experienced among the lowest gains in the pre-pandemic decade. The UK has also seen larger falls in life expectancy during the pandemic relative to several comparator countries. Meaningful long-term gains in life expectancy, reducing inequalities and improving the UK’s standing in international comparisons of life expectancy will be major challenges in the future." [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 14:10]
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 14:17 - Mar 10 with 1372 views | DJR |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:22 - Mar 10 by DJR |
The irony of these figures is that many of those in the poshest parts of Kensington can often ease off from working when they reach 60 and so could expect 32 years of semi-retirement or retirement, whereas those in New Cross Gate might be forced to work into 70s, and so might only enjoy a couple of years of retirement. And even before retirement, they may well suffer ill-health, which is much less likely for those from a privileged background. |
And surprise, surprise, as if the privileged didn't already have big enough pension pots underlying their pension income, the government is aiming to make them even bigger.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/mar/10/pension-jeremy-hunt-raise-cap-budg
They really must take us for fools. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 14:17]
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 14:35 - Mar 10 with 1343 views | gtsb1966 |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:41 - Mar 10 by Guthrum |
Poorer diets, sedentary lifestyles, binge-watching TV as a leisure pastime. Also mental health taking a battering from lack of provision and external circumstances (stress, lockdown, financial pressure, bad news). |
The poorer diets thing is spot on. There is a big problem with people not prepared to actually make a healthy meal from scratch. I know people who live off processed foods and takeaways and moan how much their food bill has gone up yet won't spend half an hour preparing a meal. Vegetables, especially frozen, are still relatively cheap and frozen meat is cheaper than fresh. A healthy meal is a lot cheaper than buying processed or takeaways yet some people cant see it. |  | | |
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