| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... 12:55 - Apr 2 with 1741 views | CBMTOBWMMBG |
At Christmas staying up looked possible, even likely.
We knew that McKenna improves players, so believed the second half of the season could be better than the first.
I'd offer three main reasons why that has not happened.
Luck.
You need plenty of it, especially in the season you come up. On balance, it has been against us. We needed a deflection or two to go our way, a few 50:50 penalties to be awarded, and certainly far less injuries.
Injuries have been brutal, a core reason behind ever changing team sheets.
Signings.
They've been ok. We'll all argue for our favourites, and who hasn't quite worked, but they are obviously all capable players. Even Muric was good in several games.
But they've only been ok. Delap has been a standout, especially in the first 20 games. Apart from him it is hard to say anyone has been the amazing signing we hoped for. And we probably needed three or four to be amazing, like we had in previous windows.
Finishing.
Sadly, just not good enough at this level. In many recent games we have had the first chance, or two, and not taken it. And then the oppo have taken theirs.
Loads of other reasons of course, just these are at the top of my list
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| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 13:11 - Apr 2 with 1637 views | BlueinBrum |
Agree it looked possible but not sure ever likely? Even after beating Chelsea on 30th Dec we were in the bottom 3.
But agreed on your other points. I would also add a lack of streetwise/dark-arts/playing the ref and ability to see games out, as we have had done to us on so many occasions.
And, an extension of your signings point, a lack of physical strength and pace which seemingly every Premier League team has in abundance. |  | | |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 13:30 - Apr 2 with 1517 views | Ftnfwest |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 13:11 - Apr 2 by BlueinBrum |
Agree it looked possible but not sure ever likely? Even after beating Chelsea on 30th Dec we were in the bottom 3.
But agreed on your other points. I would also add a lack of streetwise/dark-arts/playing the ref and ability to see games out, as we have had done to us on so many occasions.
And, an extension of your signings point, a lack of physical strength and pace which seemingly every Premier League team has in abundance. |
We've never quite built even a short run of games/results. After Chelsea we really should have won at Fulham and if we had who knows?...
I think we've got what we've deserved this season though, with the only notable exceptions being Leicester, preceded (i think) by Brentford which should really overall have been another 3 points. Added what should have been 3 against Southampton would at least have still seen us in the mix. But tbh I've been looking to next season since the Southampton loss. |  | | |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 13:52 - Apr 2 with 1463 views | Smoresy |
Less sure on the finishing point; it's one area where we've been competitive (if by finishing we mean shooting, rather than turning small chances into good ones). We're 10th for goals vs xG and we're 14th for shot conversion rate. When you consider our players aren't as good overall, and where we place in most aspects as a team, shooting* has been a positive.
*Quality of shooting, not quantity obvs. [Post edited 2 Apr 13:54]
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| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 14:45 - Apr 2 with 1382 views | rickw |
I agree it's down to lots of things.
Last season we didn't make too many new signings and those we got gradually worked their way into the team. This meant all the players knew what the manager wanted and the set patterns of play really well.
This season we had to make more signings as we'd gone ahead of several player's level.
But too many were played straight away either through choice or enforced due to injuries, this meant the team didn't have that instinctive knowledge of each others game and what the manager wanted.
We've had too many injuries this season, however I think this is probably true for most teams.
In the autumn we had too many decisions go against us at key moments, if they hadn't then confidence could have gone up, but it didn't and was clearly evident in Muric who's mistakes cost us.
This is not only most of our player's first times at this level but McKenna's too as a boss and they've all been learning what it takes.
Assuming a miracle doesn't happen this season - If we can keep hold of most of our squad and McKenna I'd be confident on getting promoted again and think we'd then be in a better place to stay up. |  |
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| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 14:55 - Apr 2 with 1335 views | Churchman |
An interesting post.
Luck? I think we’ve had precisely the amount of luck we deserved. Swings and roundabouts. You will always get injuries and more of them if you sign injury prone players. I guess I’m a great believer of making your own luck.
Signings? I can see what the club tried to do and fully aware that as the poorest club in the Premier League with the worst facilities it was going to be difficult. Some signings haven’t worked, one or two have to an extent and one has been spectacular. Nobody has 109% success rate.
Finishing - well, top players and teams only need one chance. We don’t have the best players and particularly since new year have been a poor team.
My three main (but not the only) reasons for a woeful last few months are:
1. Failure to strengthen a very weak midfield.
2. Never having a settled team.
3. The rest of the PL teams all improving significantly. They are markedly better. |  | | |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 15:04 - Apr 2 with 1303 views | hoppy |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 13:52 - Apr 2 by Smoresy |
Less sure on the finishing point; it's one area where we've been competitive (if by finishing we mean shooting, rather than turning small chances into good ones). We're 10th for goals vs xG and we're 14th for shot conversion rate. When you consider our players aren't as good overall, and where we place in most aspects as a team, shooting* has been a positive.
*Quality of shooting, not quantity obvs. [Post edited 2 Apr 13:54]
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I don't really understand all the xG stuff etc, the main stat I DO understand is how many times have we had the ball in the net, and that's not been often enough unfortunately. |  |
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| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 15:40 - Apr 2 with 1235 views | Smoresy |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 15:04 - Apr 2 by hoppy |
I don't really understand all the xG stuff etc, the main stat I DO understand is how many times have we had the ball in the net, and that's not been often enough unfortunately. |
Many don't care for it but xG is pretty simple at its heart: the modern approach to determining which team should have scored more, leaving aside who had their shooting boots on that game, who left their gloves at home, or which team the observer happened to support. Doubt models are perfectly accurate but sure they're decent enough. Last season I'd guess we had the better xG in 35-40 of the games we played. This season I'd guess in the 0-5 range. | | | |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 15:59 - Apr 2 with 1188 views | CBMTOBWMMBG |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 14:55 - Apr 2 by Churchman |
An interesting post.
Luck? I think we’ve had precisely the amount of luck we deserved. Swings and roundabouts. You will always get injuries and more of them if you sign injury prone players. I guess I’m a great believer of making your own luck.
Signings? I can see what the club tried to do and fully aware that as the poorest club in the Premier League with the worst facilities it was going to be difficult. Some signings haven’t worked, one or two have to an extent and one has been spectacular. Nobody has 109% success rate.
Finishing - well, top players and teams only need one chance. We don’t have the best players and particularly since new year have been a poor team.
My three main (but not the only) reasons for a woeful last few months are:
1. Failure to strengthen a very weak midfield.
2. Never having a settled team.
3. The rest of the PL teams all improving significantly. They are markedly better. |
Yep, I certainly agree with your points.
And my point on luck is that we needed more than we deserved. And we have not had that, sadly ...
We definitely made our own luck in the 23/24 season ! | | | |
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| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 16:15 - Apr 2 with 1120 views | Churchman |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 15:59 - Apr 2 by CBMTOBWMMBG |
Yep, I certainly agree with your points.
And my point on luck is that we needed more than we deserved. And we have not had that, sadly ...
We definitely made our own luck in the 23/24 season ! |
That’s fair. I don’t think our naivety in the shthousing dept has helped either. Other teams’ players seem to know how to work the officials over far better than our players. In a sense, I’m glad because I loathe cheating, but it’s not really helped us.
Wouldn’t have made any difference to the outcome. We’ve simply not been good enough this time around. | | | |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 16:28 - Apr 2 with 1068 views | CBMTOBWMMBG |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 13:11 - Apr 2 by BlueinBrum |
Agree it looked possible but not sure ever likely? Even after beating Chelsea on 30th Dec we were in the bottom 3.
But agreed on your other points. I would also add a lack of streetwise/dark-arts/playing the ref and ability to see games out, as we have had done to us on so many occasions.
And, an extension of your signings point, a lack of physical strength and pace which seemingly every Premier League team has in abundance. |
Yes, 'likely' was a tad optimistic ! | | | |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 16:46 - Apr 2 with 1015 views | gardins01 |
For me it was the 22 points lost from a winning position. We have never really looked comfortable at the back. We are just to easy to run at. | | | |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 17:22 - Apr 2 with 945 views | Blue_In_Boston |
Defending? Or lack of, I would have that as a bigger problem than our finishing.
We won two promotions that papered over our defensive frailties. Our shortcomings in that area have been horribly exposed. | | | |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 17:38 - Apr 2 with 907 views | billlm |
Nothing but woeful since Xmas,
Effort but that's all we have, |  | | |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 18:08 - Apr 2 with 838 views | hoppy |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 15:40 - Apr 2 by Smoresy |
Many don't care for it but xG is pretty simple at its heart: the modern approach to determining which team should have scored more, leaving aside who had their shooting boots on that game, who left their gloves at home, or which team the observer happened to support. Doubt models are perfectly accurate but sure they're decent enough. Last season I'd guess we had the better xG in 35-40 of the games we played. This season I'd guess in the 0-5 range. |
I'm sure that's all the case, but it's still even more simple than that - the number of goals actually scored is what matters ultimately. | |
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| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 18:15 - Apr 2 with 790 views | ITFCSG |
I agree that our shortcomings which we saw glimpses of in League One and the Championship have been horribly exposed this season.
Soton aside, the fact that we only managed to get 4 points out of 24 from the other top 6 teams last season was already a telling reminder that our squad was still way off what was needed to be competitive even at top end Champ/bottom 6 Prem. 4 points out of 24 is also much closer to the PPG we are getting this season.
Signings, I don't know if MA and McK recruited with relegation in mind, but the fixation with certain types of players that were not ready to "plug and play" in the Prem has been costly. Also, our lack of an international scouting network has also forced us to overpay in a much smaller pool of players, how many Prem starting XI has as many home nations players as ours? | | | |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 18:23 - Apr 2 with 743 views | TheBoyBlue |
Yep, I've been really disappointed with us since that Fulham game. Apart from Villa and Palace in that run we've not deserved to get anything from any game I can think of, which is a pity because we were in almost every game up to the turn of the year.
I would add Cajuste to the list of standout signings. But in the main we have bought with the future in mind which has been sensible in the absence of being able to sign ready made fully fit Premier League players who could change games for us. | |
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| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 18:29 - Apr 2 with 710 views | Smoresy |
| Bad luck, only Ok signings, poor finishing... on 18:08 - Apr 2 by hoppy |
I'm sure that's all the case, but it's still even more simple than that - the number of goals actually scored is what matters ultimately. |
Ain't that the truth, but it's also no coincidence that the two tend to track quite closely. Look at either column and we're ranked 18th, for instance. | | | |
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