| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data 10:36 - Mar 11 with 1084 views | IPSWICHFANITFC |
Boro and Millwall sit above us in the league, however, offensively we are and have been stronger. Defensively, we sit where we are, which is just behind Boro overall.
Boro have been more clinical with their chances, despite not creating chances as good as what we have created and scoring less overall but have been tighter at the back. It's a very good formula for getting promoted out of the Championship.
That said, we are the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league based on data, despite sitting where we do in the league. Millwall and Boro are not as strong as us. 10 games to go, plenty of points to play for. I'm not resigned to play offs; I still think top 2 is there when you look at the bigger picture.
Offensively:
2nd for most goals scored (Boro 4th, Millwall 8th)
2nd best for goals per match (Boro 4th, Millwall 8th)
2nd best for expected goals (Millwall 5th, Boro 7th)
2nd best for big chances (Millwall 6th, Boro 12th)
*2nd highest for big chances missed (Millwall 4th, Boro 18th)
Defensively:
2nd for least goals conceded (Boro 1st, 4th)
2nd best for goals conceded per match (Boro 1st, Millwall 5th)
2nd best for clean sheets (Millwall 1st, Boro 6th)
2nd best for expected goals conceded (Boro 1st, Millwall 14th)
*This stat has cost us points. Boro have been more clinical, but on paper, do they really have that much more quality across the front 4? Will poor finishing/lack of a clinical edge be our costly downfall when all is said and done at the end of the season.
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| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 10:43 - Mar 11 with 1041 views | Swansea_Blue |
“Will poor finishing/lack of a clinical edge be our costly downfall when all is said and done at the end of the season.”
Quite possibly. We can all think of plenty of games where missing big chances has cost points.
The frustrating thing is we’re obviously very close. We do a lot right, but are just falling short in putting it all together. |  |
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| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 11:03 - Mar 11 with 967 views | IPSWICHFANITFC |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 10:43 - Mar 11 by Swansea_Blue |
“Will poor finishing/lack of a clinical edge be our costly downfall when all is said and done at the end of the season.”
Quite possibly. We can all think of plenty of games where missing big chances has cost points.
The frustrating thing is we’re obviously very close. We do a lot right, but are just falling short in putting it all together. |
They are fine margins, but it is the fine margins that ultimately become the difference at the end of the season.
Football is about moments at both ends of the pitch. Striking the balance is what separates the good from the bad and scoring more goals and conceding less than others gets you promoted. Overall, we are there or there abouts.
10 games to go, right it in for me. | |
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| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 11:38 - Mar 11 with 858 views | Kievthegreat |
I'd make a potential argument for being 1st on data. We might be 2nd in practically every metric you list, but no-one is consistently 1st (Cov better attacking, but worse defending for example).
We just are not getting things over the line. Some of it's refering, some of it is a lack of composure in big moments. Last night being a prime example of bad defensive plays, and decision making which eventually lead to a dodgy penalty. One better decision and we're celebrating a comeback win.
We're still right in this fight. We've had some knocks, but we've got 2 games to bounce back, establish ourselves in 3rd and prep for 6 weeks of do or die football. When we faced that in League 1 and the Championship before, we rose to the occasions. |  | | |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:12 - Mar 11 with 626 views | Herbivore |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 11:38 - Mar 11 by Kievthegreat |
I'd make a potential argument for being 1st on data. We might be 2nd in practically every metric you list, but no-one is consistently 1st (Cov better attacking, but worse defending for example).
We just are not getting things over the line. Some of it's refering, some of it is a lack of composure in big moments. Last night being a prime example of bad defensive plays, and decision making which eventually lead to a dodgy penalty. One better decision and we're celebrating a comeback win.
We're still right in this fight. We've had some knocks, but we've got 2 games to bounce back, establish ourselves in 3rd and prep for 6 weeks of do or die football. When we faced that in League 1 and the Championship before, we rose to the occasions. |
Because there's a bit of variance in how xG is calculated by different sources, there's no definitive answer on this. These guys have us top in their expected points table: https://footballxg.com/xg-leag
Other sites don't always have expected points tables but generally have us first for xG difference, or in some instances second just behind Coventry.
Sadly, football isn't played on paper and some of the intangibles like having a clinical edge at both ends of the pitch to see out or nick games are where we've been lacking too often this season.
Interestingly when browsing stats, we've conceded the most pens in the league this season despite teams rarely building pressure and spending very little time in our area. |  |
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| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:22 - Mar 11 with 579 views | Kievthegreat |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:12 - Mar 11 by Herbivore |
Because there's a bit of variance in how xG is calculated by different sources, there's no definitive answer on this. These guys have us top in their expected points table: https://footballxg.com/xg-leag
Other sites don't always have expected points tables but generally have us first for xG difference, or in some instances second just behind Coventry.
Sadly, football isn't played on paper and some of the intangibles like having a clinical edge at both ends of the pitch to see out or nick games are where we've been lacking too often this season.
Interestingly when browsing stats, we've conceded the most pens in the league this season despite teams rarely building pressure and spending very little time in our area. |
Interesting about the penalties. I'd bet we probably allow amongst the fewest touches in our box, so pretty damning.
Also the thing that stands out in your link, we underperform slightly on every metric in that table. Scored less, conceded more and have less points than expected. Meanwhile Cov and Boro have outperformed expectations. Want to see the parallel, go back to 23-24 and see that Leeds were top of the expected table, but underperformed on every metric as well. I fear it could be where we end up. | | | |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:36 - Mar 11 with 540 views | portmanking |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 10:43 - Mar 11 by Swansea_Blue |
“Will poor finishing/lack of a clinical edge be our costly downfall when all is said and done at the end of the season.”
Quite possibly. We can all think of plenty of games where missing big chances has cost points.
The frustrating thing is we’re obviously very close. We do a lot right, but are just falling short in putting it all together. |
Thing is, even Stevie Wonder could see from Sept/Oct onwards that we lacked a clinical finisher or someone with a poacher's instinct. I still can't believe - and I'll never believe - that there's not a Bamford-esque option in Europe that we could've picked up in Jan. |  | | |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:39 - Mar 11 with 532 views | Herbivore |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:36 - Mar 11 by portmanking |
Thing is, even Stevie Wonder could see from Sept/Oct onwards that we lacked a clinical finisher or someone with a poacher's instinct. I still can't believe - and I'll never believe - that there's not a Bamford-esque option in Europe that we could've picked up in Jan. |
The problem is it's not just our strikers who are missing chances. Clarke's miss against Hull to make it comfortable, O'Shea missing headers against everyone, Akpom (I know he's sort of a striker but that's not where we're playing him) missing chances against Leicester. It feels like it's an issue across the team with the exception of Philogene. We just aren't clinical as a side, we don't have that ruthless streak that others have. | |
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| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:45 - Mar 11 with 511 views | ITFCSG |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:39 - Mar 11 by Herbivore |
The problem is it's not just our strikers who are missing chances. Clarke's miss against Hull to make it comfortable, O'Shea missing headers against everyone, Akpom (I know he's sort of a striker but that's not where we're playing him) missing chances against Leicester. It feels like it's an issue across the team with the exception of Philogene. We just aren't clinical as a side, we don't have that ruthless streak that others have. |
And why is that the case?
Because we have AGAIN failed to sign a clinical 9. Not even asking for a Delap-sque or PL quality one, but a decent Champ CF like McBurnie, Gelhardt, Vipotnik, Wright or even Moore would have put away a lot of our chances - such as the 1 on 1 miss by Hirst to kill the game off last night. Shut down out wing play esp Clarke/Philogene and Burns, we're basically toothless. | | | |
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| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:50 - Mar 11 with 491 views | Herbivore |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:45 - Mar 11 by ITFCSG |
And why is that the case?
Because we have AGAIN failed to sign a clinical 9. Not even asking for a Delap-sque or PL quality one, but a decent Champ CF like McBurnie, Gelhardt, Vipotnik, Wright or even Moore would have put away a lot of our chances - such as the 1 on 1 miss by Hirst to kill the game off last night. Shut down out wing play esp Clarke/Philogene and Burns, we're basically toothless. |
If you're going to reply to a post, at least make an effort to engage with it. | |
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| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 16:00 - Mar 11 with 447 views | ITFCSG |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 15:50 - Mar 11 by Herbivore |
If you're going to reply to a post, at least make an effort to engage with it. |
So Mr Smarty Pants, teams sign a striker to score goals.
Are there any teams that play without a 9?
Teams have a striker for a reason right?
We don't have a proper one, that's why we aren't clinical enough.
Clarke and Philogene are not CFs, they are supposed to supply the ammo, not take on the burden of scoring all upon themselves.
Might as well ask Walton and O'Shea to play as a 9. | | | |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 16:06 - Mar 11 with 424 views | Herbivore |
| We're the 2nd/3rd best based on the data on 16:00 - Mar 11 by ITFCSG |
So Mr Smarty Pants, teams sign a striker to score goals.
Are there any teams that play without a 9?
Teams have a striker for a reason right?
We don't have a proper one, that's why we aren't clinical enough.
Clarke and Philogene are not CFs, they are supposed to supply the ammo, not take on the burden of scoring all upon themselves.
Might as well ask Walton and O'Shea to play as a 9. |
How would having a more clinical number 9 solve the issue of many of our other players also squandering good chances? Our CFs are on course to score more goals than our CFs managed in 2023/24 when we got promoted. | |
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