| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:06 - Apr 4 with 838 views | Guthrum |
Yes. And the tests are announced on the day the results come back, not the day they were taken.
Too much attempted precision is being applied to all these numbers. They are meaningless other than as a very broad-brush indicator of general trends. People seem determined to compare "curves" on graphs which were not built using identical criteria, from countries with different social and medical setups, not to mention ignoring factors like localised hotspots.
It's leading to a vast amount of extremely loose thinking and overanalysis of minor fluctuations when we don't even fully understand the lifecycle of this disease yet. Moreover largely meaningless numbers are being used to lambast those in leadership positions or to promote everybody's pet theories for a quick solution. |  |
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| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:11 - Apr 4 with 819 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
SO there are all sorts of corrections which need to be made to make the data more useful. However, it is difficult to have up-to-date death information before it has been reported.
Some data that would be useful:
The day the person died.
Cause of death.
Underlying conditions.
Age.
Medication.
Life expectancy before becoming ill.
Per country: overall death rate for this time of year vs death rates this year alongside breakdowns of cause of death.
For the latter it will be very interesting to balance the effect of lockdown on various death rates. I am sure deaths due to RTAs and work-related accidents will be down. The suicide rate will almost certainly be up as will deaths due to domestic violence. Countries that have locked down effectively should see death rates due to the virus and other contagious conditions lower. |  |
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| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:14 - Apr 4 with 809 views | BlueBadger |
| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:06 - Apr 4 by Guthrum |
Yes. And the tests are announced on the day the results come back, not the day they were taken.
Too much attempted precision is being applied to all these numbers. They are meaningless other than as a very broad-brush indicator of general trends. People seem determined to compare "curves" on graphs which were not built using identical criteria, from countries with different social and medical setups, not to mention ignoring factors like localised hotspots.
It's leading to a vast amount of extremely loose thinking and overanalysis of minor fluctuations when we don't even fully understand the lifecycle of this disease yet. Moreover largely meaningless numbers are being used to lambast those in leadership positions or to promote everybody's pet theories for a quick solution. |
The other thing with tests is that they're a bit like a vehicle MOT. They only say if you're clear or positive on the day of testing.
I have no idea about other places but anyone needing hospitalisation at [redacted] is admitted to a 'treat as suspicion' area until confirmed or otherwise. Those who are negative on admission could very well be 'cohorted' alongside those who are positive on admission. A negative swab then means if you're still needing to be an in-taint you get a move to a 'clean' ward.... |  |
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| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:15 - Apr 4 with 801 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:06 - Apr 4 by Guthrum |
Yes. And the tests are announced on the day the results come back, not the day they were taken.
Too much attempted precision is being applied to all these numbers. They are meaningless other than as a very broad-brush indicator of general trends. People seem determined to compare "curves" on graphs which were not built using identical criteria, from countries with different social and medical setups, not to mention ignoring factors like localised hotspots.
It's leading to a vast amount of extremely loose thinking and overanalysis of minor fluctuations when we don't even fully understand the lifecycle of this disease yet. Moreover largely meaningless numbers are being used to lambast those in leadership positions or to promote everybody's pet theories for a quick solution. |
Data analysis really should be done by the experts.
However, there has always been use of statistics to support anyone's chosen position. Lies, damn lies and statistics.
It doesn't make the statistics themselves the problem but the misuse of them is. | |
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| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:22 - Apr 4 with 784 views | BloomBlue |
| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:15 - Apr 4 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Data analysis really should be done by the experts.
However, there has always been use of statistics to support anyone's chosen position. Lies, damn lies and statistics.
It doesn't make the statistics themselves the problem but the misuse of them is. |
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything |  | | |
| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:27 - Apr 4 with 783 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:14 - Apr 4 by BlueBadger |
The other thing with tests is that they're a bit like a vehicle MOT. They only say if you're clear or positive on the day of testing.
I have no idea about other places but anyone needing hospitalisation at [redacted] is admitted to a 'treat as suspicion' area until confirmed or otherwise. Those who are negative on admission could very well be 'cohorted' alongside those who are positive on admission. A negative swab then means if you're still needing to be an in-taint you get a move to a 'clean' ward.... |
Probably not at all practical but new patients should be isolated until the test shows either way. That way the only way the infection spreads within the hospital is by staff contact - which is also highly likely. | |
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| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:43 - Apr 4 with 747 views | BlueBadger |
| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:27 - Apr 4 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Probably not at all practical but new patients should be isolated until the test shows either way. That way the only way the infection spreads within the hospital is by staff contact - which is also highly likely. |
Absolutely. | |
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| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:54 - Apr 4 with 732 views | Darth_Koont |
Sure. But those analysing it know that that's why they'll look at overall trends. |  |
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| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:56 - Apr 4 with 726 views | Pinewoodblue |
They are useful as, on a day by day basis , they are consistent and show how things are progressing.
What is dangerous is comparing figures collected differently. For example comparing how one country is coping , compared with another. |  |
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| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 12:58 - Apr 4 with 605 views | linhdi |
| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 10:11 - Apr 4 by Nthsuffolkblue |
SO there are all sorts of corrections which need to be made to make the data more useful. However, it is difficult to have up-to-date death information before it has been reported.
Some data that would be useful:
The day the person died.
Cause of death.
Underlying conditions.
Age.
Medication.
Life expectancy before becoming ill.
Per country: overall death rate for this time of year vs death rates this year alongside breakdowns of cause of death.
For the latter it will be very interesting to balance the effect of lockdown on various death rates. I am sure deaths due to RTAs and work-related accidents will be down. The suicide rate will almost certainly be up as will deaths due to domestic violence. Countries that have locked down effectively should see death rates due to the virus and other contagious conditions lower. |
Though with an increase, medium term, in mortality from (eg) cancer due to cancelled operations. |  | | |
| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 15:08 - Apr 4 with 513 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 12:58 - Apr 4 by linhdi |
Though with an increase, medium term, in mortality from (eg) cancer due to cancelled operations. |
Possibly.
I think those who need urgent treatment are still being given it. I know of several cases where that is so. Hospitals are practising non-Covid vs known Covid areas. However, the risk that one patient spreads it within the non-Covid zones is bound to be high. | |
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| These death figures may be worse than useless it appears... on 16:13 - Apr 4 with 470 views | NthQldITFC |
I'm somewhat surprised that the BBC (amongst others) are still talking about deaths "from Covid-19" or "from coronavirus" as opposed to "with Covid-19" or "with coronavirus".
Sometimes they do, and sometimes they don't, but I would have thought that they would have strict editorial rules to indicate that in many of these recorded deaths the virus may not have been the sole, or a dominant factor.
I'm not sure whether the BBC ever worked out whether or not to use "so-called" in conjunction with "Islamic State", but I think both of these are symptomatic of a lack of clear policy, as opposed to a desire for a bit more drama. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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