| Interesting in Daily Politico e-mail today.... 08:42 - Apr 20 with 753 views | itfcjoe |
So in that spirit: Playbook will continue to ask why Britain – along with much of the West – chose a strategy from the outset so fundamentally different to the “test-trace-isolate” approach of Asian countries with experience of dealing with viral pandemics. Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries was last night asked about her assertion last month that WHO advice to “test, test, test” was “not appropriate” for Britain, telling Sky News’ Tamara Cohen this guidance had been aimed at “countries around the world [that] did not know they had a problem” and so did not apply to the U.K.
Really? You can read the WHO transcript for yourself here ( https://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id= but Playbook is struggling to spot any suggestion this advice was aimed at nations unaware they had a problem. In fact, it was explicitly aimed at those already enacting strict social distancing. “We have seen a rapid escalation in social distancing measures, like closing schools and canceling sporting events and other gatherings,” WHO boss Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on March 16. “But we have not seen an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing – which is the backbone of the response. Social distancing measures can help to reduce transmission and enable health systems to cope … But on their own, they are not enough to extinguish this pandemic … You must test and isolate.” Britain had stopped doing both a few days earlier.
And there’s more: Harries last night went on to question whether increased testing would actually help keep death rates low. “We have rather ended up with … a demand on testing without necessarily seeing that causal link – the bit that says, ‘if we do lots of testing how does this play out?'” she said. “I think the actual mechanism between the two is still not clear.” Britain, she added, has been “an international exemplar in preparedness.” It would be interesting to hear those assertions put to the South Korean government, which (as I may have mentioned once or twice) has used a “test-trace-isolate” approach throughout, and which has seen fewer than 250 deaths in total (compared to Britain’s 16,000-plus) while avoiding the need for a costly lockdown.
Bad Korea move? The only explanation I’ve heard for this discrepancy from senior U.K. government officials is that Asian countries had “been through the experience” of SARS, MERS et al, and so took a very different approach to viral pandemics. What nobody has yet been able to explain is why Britain – and other Western nations – could not have learned those same lessons without going through a pandemic of our own? Perhaps someone could email in and let me know.
In the meantime: Here’s former WHO Director Anthony Costello on Twitter last night: “I cannot believe what I am hearing at the press conference. Deputy CMO Jenny Harries still believes that testing policy in the U.K. has been correct. And she doesn’t understand links between tests and #COVID death rates. Is this #CMO policy? If so, they should resign.” And here’s the Lancet’s editor, Richard Horton: “When you see supposedly independent medical advisors to government tell what are manifest untruths to shore up a political regime whose credibility is rapidly collapsing, you have to say that those advisors have lost their integrity and our trust.” Yikes. Sounds like the difficult questions are going to continue. |  |
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| Interesting in Daily Politico e-mail today.... on 09:38 - Apr 20 with 673 views | Guthrum |
One of the prime differences between China and SK (the two they're primarily talking about) and most of the West (barring perhaps Italy) is that those countries had highly regionalised initial outbreaks, limited to one city at the outset. That allowed them to mount highly targeted campaigns of testing and tracing. They weren't trying to do the whole country. All available resources could be concentrated in one place.
Countries like the UK, France, Spain and the USA did not have that limited node of infection which they could go after. The disease appeared in multiple places throughout the country. Only later did more severe outbreaks develop in areas of most concentrated population. Particularly an issue in places like the States and Britain, where there are multiple, very busy entry points with direct links to the disease centres.
Italy were in a position more like China and SK, with the initial concentration in Lombardy, but due to some unfortunate circumstances, things got out of hand too quickly to keep a lid on.
Additionally, it would be a mistake to consider the C-19 outbreak in South East Asia dealt with. SK may have dealt with the Daegu outbreak and Australia/NZ are possibly passing the peak, but otherwise infections are significantly on the rise in that region. They may be geographically a bit closer to China, but the progress of the disease appears to be behind where Europe is. |  |
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| Interesting in Daily Politico e-mail today.... on 09:47 - Apr 20 with 651 views | lowhouseblue |
| Interesting in Daily Politico e-mail today.... on 09:38 - Apr 20 by Guthrum |
One of the prime differences between China and SK (the two they're primarily talking about) and most of the West (barring perhaps Italy) is that those countries had highly regionalised initial outbreaks, limited to one city at the outset. That allowed them to mount highly targeted campaigns of testing and tracing. They weren't trying to do the whole country. All available resources could be concentrated in one place.
Countries like the UK, France, Spain and the USA did not have that limited node of infection which they could go after. The disease appeared in multiple places throughout the country. Only later did more severe outbreaks develop in areas of most concentrated population. Particularly an issue in places like the States and Britain, where there are multiple, very busy entry points with direct links to the disease centres.
Italy were in a position more like China and SK, with the initial concentration in Lombardy, but due to some unfortunate circumstances, things got out of hand too quickly to keep a lid on.
Additionally, it would be a mistake to consider the C-19 outbreak in South East Asia dealt with. SK may have dealt with the Daegu outbreak and Australia/NZ are possibly passing the peak, but otherwise infections are significantly on the rise in that region. They may be geographically a bit closer to China, but the progress of the disease appears to be behind where Europe is. |
being extremely internationally open, having a densely concentrated urban population, having london which has a large concentrated population and is a huge transport hub, and having a large part of the population dependent on daily commuting etc etc means that simplistic comparisons with other countries are pretty meaningless. the outbreak in the uk never developed from one point which could have been encircled and contained. hence why the expert advice in the uk isn't identical to the expert advice elsewhere.
but we now know for certain that people, including the left, actually only champion experts when they are saying exactly what they want to hear. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Interesting in Daily Politico e-mail today.... on 09:55 - Apr 20 with 639 views | monytowbray |
| Interesting in Daily Politico e-mail today.... on 09:47 - Apr 20 by lowhouseblue |
being extremely internationally open, having a densely concentrated urban population, having london which has a large concentrated population and is a huge transport hub, and having a large part of the population dependent on daily commuting etc etc means that simplistic comparisons with other countries are pretty meaningless. the outbreak in the uk never developed from one point which could have been encircled and contained. hence why the expert advice in the uk isn't identical to the expert advice elsewhere.
but we now know for certain that people, including the left, actually only champion experts when they are saying exactly what they want to hear. |
"but we now know for certain that people, including the left, actually only champion experts when they are saying exactly what they want to hear."
Because you've never been guilty of that. Only Corbyn voters. |  |
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| Interesting in Daily Politico e-mail today.... on 10:42 - Apr 20 with 594 views | bluefunk |
There’s no mention in that about the fact that South Korea has in place a system of tracing that would be very difficult to replicate in the UK, and both China and South Korea’s authorities exert a level of control on their citizens that a Western population would be very unlikely to tolerate. |  | | |
| Interesting in Daily Politico e-mail today.... on 14:17 - Apr 20 with 504 views | eireblue |
One would hope that the U.K. Government is training more contact tracers and expanding the U.K. capability whilst in lockdown. |  | | |
| Interesting in Daily Politico e-mail today.... on 14:53 - Apr 20 with 473 views | gordon |
| Interesting in Daily Politico e-mail today.... on 09:47 - Apr 20 by lowhouseblue |
being extremely internationally open, having a densely concentrated urban population, having london which has a large concentrated population and is a huge transport hub, and having a large part of the population dependent on daily commuting etc etc means that simplistic comparisons with other countries are pretty meaningless. the outbreak in the uk never developed from one point which could have been encircled and contained. hence why the expert advice in the uk isn't identical to the expert advice elsewhere.
but we now know for certain that people, including the left, actually only champion experts when they are saying exactly what they want to hear. |
Just out of interest, is that analysis in your first paragraph from a scientist/epidemiologist/expert, or is that your own take? |  | | |
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