| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator 08:59 - Jun 20 with 1938 views | unstableblue |
40 points is oft referenced as the points needed to survive. But in reference to the 23/24 relegation battle, this is an interesting factoid:
“In fact over the last 28 seasons where the Premier League has had 20 clubs, the team finishing 18th - the highest to go down - have averaged 35.2 points. So on average 36 points have been enough to stay up.“
Forest survived in the end on a low 32 points. Albeit with Luton, Burnley and Sheff U putting up a weak campaign. 36 for Everton the season before, 38 for Leeds the season before that.
Over a 38 game season to hit 36 points, that’s a measly 0.95 points per game. Or indeed if we need 40 points 1.05.
Luton got 0.68 ppg - with 6 wins, 8 draws and 24 losses
Interestingly they took the lead 14 times, which ended up in 6 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats,
Their results sequence was as follows:
L L L L D W L L D L D L W L L L V W W L D W D L L L L D L D L L W L L L D L L
Four game before getting a point on board stands out - at home to Wolves. Town for me need at least a draw against Fulham at home in our third game. Kind of mandatory we do.
Who did Luton win against:
Everton (a), Palace (h), Newcastle (h), Sheffield Utd (a), Brighton (h), Bournemouth (h)
Bar Newcastle and perhaps even Palace these days, they were teams to win against, and they just didn’t at enough of that bracket.. they had to get at least one win against Burnley for example.
When I watched Luton last season when they took the game to the opposition and died up the home crowd they were formidable and even big teams were on the ropes, they just needed to do it for 90mins and just be a bit tighter.
We are a better managed team, and we may have better players in comparison come season start. Indeed I thought we looked a better outfit in the pre-season at Col U against them as a League zone promoted side. If you can take anything from a friendly that is.
It’s going to be a real challenge to survive this term. The promoted clubs are stronger, and I think the likes of Palace, Fulham and Bournemouth are getting stronger.
The Portman Road crowd really are the 12th man, and our transfer business needs to get some goals and solidity into the team early.
If we can be at 7 points after August/September and 6 games - 1.16 PPG - having gathered 2 wins and a draw from ha Fulham (h), Brighton (a), Saints (a). It would be a great starts.
|  |
| |  |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 09:50 - Jun 20 with 1743 views | SWBlue22 |
I think the minimum we should be looking at is 38 so average a point a game. I wouldn’t be taking that though right now I think we can surpass that and be fairly comfortable mid table. It’s going to be fascinating. |  | | |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 09:54 - Jun 20 with 1734 views | _clive_baker_ |
38 points, 1 ppg.
Its a very different mindset shift from a promotion chase where every defeat feels like the end of the world. Setting a pace of 98 points in L1 and 96 in the Championship was ridiculous, and next season will be so different. If you're winning, drawing, losing or even winning, losing, losing you'll be OK. Easier mentally in many respects than having to maintain a promotion push like those of the past 2 years. Scrapping for points, and draws are our friend rather than the enemy now. |  | | |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 10:22 - Jun 20 with 1613 views | Guthrum |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 09:54 - Jun 20 by _clive_baker_ |
38 points, 1 ppg.
Its a very different mindset shift from a promotion chase where every defeat feels like the end of the world. Setting a pace of 98 points in L1 and 96 in the Championship was ridiculous, and next season will be so different. If you're winning, drawing, losing or even winning, losing, losing you'll be OK. Easier mentally in many respects than having to maintain a promotion push like those of the past 2 years. Scrapping for points, and draws are our friend rather than the enemy now. |
I don't think McKenna will be approaching things that way.
Yes, some of the teams in the Prem are a lot better than us. But many are only a bit better - even without allowing for our signings this summer. A lot of loose thinking has been generated by last season with all three promoted sides going back down. That is actually an unusual scenario. How much was down to their own errors, rather than the strength of the entire division?
I think we will set out to be genuinely competitive. Mid-table, or better. After all, the Manager knows the Prem at the highest level. Scraping draws is not his style and I doubt the club is looking at that kind of player.
It's not even a good strategy. The opposition attacks are good enough that hanging on to 0-0 for 90+ minutes isn't viable. Far better to build a balanced team and play properly. [Post edited 20 Jun 2024 10:24]
|  |
| |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 10:36 - Jun 20 with 1563 views | _clive_baker_ |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 10:22 - Jun 20 by Guthrum |
I don't think McKenna will be approaching things that way.
Yes, some of the teams in the Prem are a lot better than us. But many are only a bit better - even without allowing for our signings this summer. A lot of loose thinking has been generated by last season with all three promoted sides going back down. That is actually an unusual scenario. How much was down to their own errors, rather than the strength of the entire division?
I think we will set out to be genuinely competitive. Mid-table, or better. After all, the Manager knows the Prem at the highest level. Scraping draws is not his style and I doubt the club is looking at that kind of player.
It's not even a good strategy. The opposition attacks are good enough that hanging on to 0-0 for 90+ minutes isn't viable. Far better to build a balanced team and play properly. [Post edited 20 Jun 2024 10:24]
|
We certainly wont approach any game accepting a defeat, I think we'll generally set out trying to win every one of the 38 we play, with a healthy dose of pragmatism that if we're at the Etihad there will be long spells where we won't have it our way.
That said, however we approach games and set ourselves up, we'll almost certainly find ourselves on the end of plenty unfavourable results, such is the quality at this level. I'm not necessarily referring to the approach but more the likely outcomes in the point about draws being out friend, whereas they felt like 2 points dropped in a promotion push they become much more handy when you might only be looking at 1ppg average for survival. | | | |
| I don’t think that’s what Bakers meant on 10:40 - Jun 20 with 1546 views | Dyland |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 10:22 - Jun 20 by Guthrum |
I don't think McKenna will be approaching things that way.
Yes, some of the teams in the Prem are a lot better than us. But many are only a bit better - even without allowing for our signings this summer. A lot of loose thinking has been generated by last season with all three promoted sides going back down. That is actually an unusual scenario. How much was down to their own errors, rather than the strength of the entire division?
I think we will set out to be genuinely competitive. Mid-table, or better. After all, the Manager knows the Prem at the highest level. Scraping draws is not his style and I doubt the club is looking at that kind of player.
It's not even a good strategy. The opposition attacks are good enough that hanging on to 0-0 for 90+ minutes isn't viable. Far better to build a balanced team and play properly. [Post edited 20 Jun 2024 10:24]
|
More that the way we (will continue) to play will see us in scraps for draws more often than the wins we saw last two seasons. |  |
| |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 10:43 - Jun 20 with 1530 views | PhilTWTD |
We got 36 points last time we were relegated. Last season 27 would have been enough to stay up on points, 26 with a better goal difference than Luton. |  | | |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 10:50 - Jun 20 with 1505 views | _clive_baker_ |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 10:43 - Jun 20 by PhilTWTD |
We got 36 points last time we were relegated. Last season 27 would have been enough to stay up on points, 26 with a better goal difference than Luton. |
By historical standards last season was very much the exception rather than the norm though. That said, with points deductions flying around who knows what a new norm might look like. Personally I think it was probably a combination of factors - such as the greater divide between the have's and have not's in the PL which isn't likely to close any time soon, and the fact the 3 promoted sides were probably among some of the weakest to have gone up in a while.
If I had to guess I would say something like 35 will have you very close to survival this season.
There's only 1 club in the past c. 15 years to have won 10 games and gone down, that was Cardiff yonks ago who won 10, drew 4, and went down with 34 points in 17th. Even then 2 clubs above them only won 9, but drew more than Cardiff's 4. For me that should be the goal, double digit level of wins and then some draws on top. | | | |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 10:54 - Jun 20 with 1466 views | PhilTWTD |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 10:50 - Jun 20 by _clive_baker_ |
By historical standards last season was very much the exception rather than the norm though. That said, with points deductions flying around who knows what a new norm might look like. Personally I think it was probably a combination of factors - such as the greater divide between the have's and have not's in the PL which isn't likely to close any time soon, and the fact the 3 promoted sides were probably among some of the weakest to have gone up in a while.
If I had to guess I would say something like 35 will have you very close to survival this season.
There's only 1 club in the past c. 15 years to have won 10 games and gone down, that was Cardiff yonks ago who won 10, drew 4, and went down with 34 points in 17th. Even then 2 clubs above them only won 9, but drew more than Cardiff's 4. For me that should be the goal, double digit level of wins and then some draws on top. |
Think you're right it may well be more next season, points deductions aside, but the trend does seem to be downwards due to the disparities in budgets, which, as you say, are only going to get worse. | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 11:22 - Jun 20 with 1373 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Zero points might be enough to stay up this season IF the sportswashers and Chelsea get what they deserve. Leicester might struggle to reach zero points depending how big their deficit and how demoralised they are.
Forest and Everton look certain to lose FFP points…. Again - so their FFP penalty might be a bit more meaningful as serial offenders. Someone might start looking at Bournemouth’s accounts too. I suspect the coming season is a fortuitous one to be joining the big boys. |  |
| |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 15:04 - Jun 20 with 1137 views | dirtyboy |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 11:22 - Jun 20 by ElephantintheRoom |
Zero points might be enough to stay up this season IF the sportswashers and Chelsea get what they deserve. Leicester might struggle to reach zero points depending how big their deficit and how demoralised they are.
Forest and Everton look certain to lose FFP points…. Again - so their FFP penalty might be a bit more meaningful as serial offenders. Someone might start looking at Bournemouth’s accounts too. I suspect the coming season is a fortuitous one to be joining the big boys. |
Wow. Careful, you'll be likeable soon. |  | | |
| 36 points to survive in the Premier League… what is PPG? Luton comparator on 16:50 - Jun 20 with 1018 views | OsmansCleanSheet |
‘Town for me need at least a draw against Fulham at home in our third game. Kind of mandatory we do.’
Not if we take 6 points from our first 2 games! |  | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
