| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 11:58 - Sep 7 with 3829 views | Chocorange |
Great find, a good read and very interesting.
Going to have a look around the site , to see how accurate these are over a longer period.
Karanka is all about defence , so if anything I would expect the XGoals against to become lower still making for boring football.
What a waste of 20plus Mill!
What do your Forest supporting mates think of them? [Post edited 7 Sep 2018 11:59]
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| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 13:56 - Sep 7 with 3673 views | tortoise |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 11:58 - Sep 7 by Chocorange |
Great find, a good read and very interesting.
Going to have a look around the site , to see how accurate these are over a longer period.
Karanka is all about defence , so if anything I would expect the XGoals against to become lower still making for boring football.
What a waste of 20plus Mill!
What do your Forest supporting mates think of them? [Post edited 7 Sep 2018 11:59]
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They seem to like the signings, but are not that sold on the manager. However, they are largely pretty positive due to the money spent. I think it will end in tears! Well I hope so anyway! |  | | |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 14:50 - Sep 7 with 3599 views | Horseboy |
These stats are useful but only paint some of the picture IMO. | | | |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 15:08 - Sep 7 with 3582 views | Chocorange |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 14:50 - Sep 7 by Horseboy |
These stats are useful but only paint some of the picture IMO. |
With a little bit of digging through the site, i found an article (it was a preview of the new championship season and recommended bets) on where teams should have finished last season, for us it was 22nd and relegated, apparently we have been one of the bottom 3 the last 2 seasons under MM.
The teams at the top that got promoted last season were largely similar in actual position to xpected goals position. | | | |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 18:53 - Sep 7 with 3478 views | Bent_double |
Interesting. Wasn't there a similar stat for us last season after the winning start, that basically we weren't creating chances and would soon start dropping down the table?
Hopefully they're right and we'll start moving up the table soon. |  |
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| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 19:05 - Sep 7 with 3460 views | Herbivore |
Many of us are massively sceptical about the value of xG stats and this really just further backs that up. So many teams are 6-10 places away from where they 'should' be that the 'should' is clearly meaningless. |  |
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| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 19:33 - Sep 7 with 3408 views | Chocorange |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 19:05 - Sep 7 by Herbivore |
Many of us are massively sceptical about the value of xG stats and this really just further backs that up. So many teams are 6-10 places away from where they 'should' be that the 'should' is clearly meaningless. |
The shorter the period covered the more inaccurate the results can be.
If you look at the preview for the championship season, it shows every teams actual and also XG position for the whole of last season...thus a much longer sample period.
Checking that one and only 2of the teams are 6 places or more from the actual , ( one of those is us) and 17 are within 3 places of their actual finishing place... That's nearly 75% accurate to a strong degree. | | | |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 19:43 - Sep 7 with 3393 views | christiand |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 13:56 - Sep 7 by tortoise |
They seem to like the signings, but are not that sold on the manager. However, they are largely pretty positive due to the money spent. I think it will end in tears! Well I hope so anyway! |
My brother is a Forest supporter and has seen them a couple of times live this season. He's disappointed that they aren't playing more of their Academy players (that sound familiar?) and is massively disheartened with the departure of Ben Brereton to Blackburn Rovers. He thinks Karanka is too defensive and some of the players he has brought in are massively over-priced. The home-grown talent could do equally as good a job in Cash and Osbourn (if played in his preferred position as a number 10) IHO. Predicts Karanka will be gone by November if things don't improve.
Regarding us, is it we have been unlucky so far or we just have some players that aren't good enough for this standard of football to capitalise? [Post edited 7 Sep 2018 19:53]
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| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 20:21 - Sep 7 with 3332 views | Devereuxxx |
This interesting. But, only so much can be blamed on luck. The most telling statistic is the difference between expected goals conceded and actual goals conceded. Hopefully, a settled backline will stop making stupid errors.
A bit off topic, but probably the most interesting example of XG I've seen if the Manchester United vs Arsenal game last year, which United won 3-1. Arsenal had an XG of 5.01, basically saying they bossed the game completely, had loads of good chances but De Gea had the game of his life. As a fan, it would be weird knowing you've been beaten by a rival, but the stats say you should be pleased with your team's performance. Sits a little odd. |  | | |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 21:24 - Sep 7 with 3264 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
It looked good until I got as far as the table and saw the ExPos stats put Leeds at 8th.
I agree Town have been unlucky and played more like a mid-table team. However, the flip side is we have given away silly goals and failed to take chances. We need to improve both to improve results.
As for Leeds, from what I have seen, they look a class above. Clinical finishing and solid defending do not appear to register in the ExPos stats. Plus they would put Norwich 7th! |  |
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| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 07:50 - Sep 8 with 3108 views | Superfrans |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 21:24 - Sep 7 by Nthsuffolkblue |
It looked good until I got as far as the table and saw the ExPos stats put Leeds at 8th.
I agree Town have been unlucky and played more like a mid-table team. However, the flip side is we have given away silly goals and failed to take chances. We need to improve both to improve results.
As for Leeds, from what I have seen, they look a class above. Clinical finishing and solid defending do not appear to register in the ExPos stats. Plus they would put Norwich 7th! |
When you look at the end of season table for 2017-18, it also highlights how unreflective expected goals are. Below is a link to the table.
We would have been second bottom on expected goals, but finished mid table. It is quite possible that we finish second bottom this season, but should be mid-table on expected goals. I’m not sure what good that would do us..
https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/previews/efl-championship-2018-19-expected-goals |  |
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| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 09:02 - Sep 8 with 3046 views | No9 |
Unfortunately that website has no influence on events or results | | | |
| Apparently we’ve been unlucky! on 09:22 - Sep 8 with 3019 views | Slambo |
Interesting. I was chatting to my dad about this just the other day; that season we got in the playoffs Brighton only just avoided relegation and I remember reading a similar article in te Guardian saying Brighton had been statistically the unluckiest team in the division. Next season they were pipped for automatic promotion on goal difference, before going up the season after... |  |
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