| Prediction Thread 02:35 - Jan 15 with 6143 views | connorscontract |
Theresa May Edition.
What's your prediction for the outcome of the Brexit vote?
My prediction is that May will lose, the Government will survive a No Confidence Vote.
May will then announce her resignation, as she will say she has got the best deal she could, and did her best to respect the will of the people. Many political obituaries will be written borrowing heavily from the words written about Andy Murray in recent days: "dogged, remarkable resilience, courage, surprisingly good second serve" etc
The Tories intriguingly don't have a Deputy Prime Minister, but I think it is note-worthy that David Liddington moved over to the Cabinet Office a week ago. I predict he will take over the reins and manage a pause on Article 50 and a Second Referendum.
Well that's my crock of horse sheet, what's yours?
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| Prediction Thread on 09:29 - Jan 15 with 1593 views | itfcjoe |
| Prediction Thread on 09:26 - Jan 15 by Guthrum |
What minor amendments could be made which are acceptable to both sides?
And will the hard-core No Dealers and the Labour Party playing political games not simply reject it as "still not good enough"? Given they will not be satisfied by anything which May could possibly present (the one lot wanting the sharpest possible severance and the other a chance to overthrow the government). |
I just feel it will push right to the very limit - and come down to choice of No Deal or This Deal and anyone bar the ERG will be forced to not accept No Deal as would be such a disaster |  |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:30 - Jan 15 with 1593 views | chicoazul |
| Prediction Thread on 09:25 - Jan 15 by itfcjoe |
With free Movement? |
I truly believe that if you said to the 17m who voted to leave "everything is staying the same apart from no more freedom of movement" at least 1/3 of them would be fine with that. Hardly anyone cares about the Court of Justice etc |  |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:30 - Jan 15 with 1586 views | connorscontract |
| Prediction Thread on 09:18 - Jan 15 by Vic |
My prediction:
May to lose by 85 votes then goes back to Brussels to try for concessions. She gets lots of praise and a couple of morsels from them, but not enough to change anything.
Labour then forces no confidence vote, which she survives, but labour calls for a Geneneral election - which of course they don’t get.
Corbyn continues to say nothing constructive or helpful about Brexit but rather simply continues his life long habit of moaning about how bad a job others are doing and what a wonderful job he’d do.
May stands down and another non Brexiteer steps in and delays Brexit.
Possible new referendum called.
Rinse and repeat.
All that said, it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s not a twist in the story yet. The EU never agree deals until 11.59 of the process, so I still think they may blink on the Irish backstop issue - but not before tonight. |
The EU can't "blink on the Irish Border issue" if that means a need for either:
New Security Installations (the idea that you could have Customs checks a mile or two away from the Border doesn't solve this, as The Good Friday Agreement talks about Security Installations generally (and watch towers in other parts of NI were decommissioned as part of the process, not just Border checkpoints)
Or
The rest of the EU agreeing to something that the Irish Government don't agree to.
As both of those would be breaches of the Good Friday Agreement. The EU is a rules based organisation, and the negotiators aren't negotiating from a blank piece of paper. Everything they agree has to be consistent with every EU Law and any Bi-lateral or Multi-lateral treaties or agreements which are relevant.
The EU negotiators cannot agree to anything which breaks The Good Friday Agreement. | | | |
| Prediction Thread on 09:33 - Jan 15 with 1575 views | itfcjoe |
| Prediction Thread on 09:30 - Jan 15 by chicoazul |
I truly believe that if you said to the 17m who voted to leave "everything is staying the same apart from no more freedom of movement" at least 1/3 of them would be fine with that. Hardly anyone cares about the Court of Justice etc |
I wish it could be explained that we can control our borders - that EU immigrants can be sent back if not working. That we can and effectively don't limit non-EU immigration.
High immigration is Government policy, and the Government are now blaming it on being in the EU to the people who don't like this policy. | |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:39 - Jan 15 with 1567 views | wkj |
| Prediction Thread on 09:22 - Jan 15 by jjblue84 |
May is thick but she can even be so stupid that she will go through the certainty of losing today’s result before stepping down!! |
over this and other posts you've managed to shoot down every scenario, well done |  |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:40 - Jan 15 with 1567 views | Guthrum |
| Prediction Thread on 09:29 - Jan 15 by itfcjoe |
I just feel it will push right to the very limit - and come down to choice of No Deal or This Deal and anyone bar the ERG will be forced to not accept No Deal as would be such a disaster |
We're pretty much at that point already - and still people are hedging.
Labour cannot accept this deal, as it would offend the half of their supporter base who oppose Brexit and the majority of their supporters who can't abide going along with anything which the Tories came up with (unless it can be rebranded). If a substantial group of their MPs cannot be induced to rebel, then any vote on this (or similar) deal is inevitably - and mathematically - doomed.
The only hope was ever a cross party, thus non-partisan, arrangement.
But it's too late for that now, unless, perhaps, leaders can rise up in the Commons who put national interest ahead of faction. |  |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:44 - Jan 15 with 1558 views | wkj |
| Prediction Thread on 09:40 - Jan 15 by Guthrum |
We're pretty much at that point already - and still people are hedging.
Labour cannot accept this deal, as it would offend the half of their supporter base who oppose Brexit and the majority of their supporters who can't abide going along with anything which the Tories came up with (unless it can be rebranded). If a substantial group of their MPs cannot be induced to rebel, then any vote on this (or similar) deal is inevitably - and mathematically - doomed.
The only hope was ever a cross party, thus non-partisan, arrangement.
But it's too late for that now, unless, perhaps, leaders can rise up in the Commons who put national interest ahead of faction. |
Indeed, the non-partisan committee that should have been in place day one. Would Europe grant a 2 year extension to article 50? Part of me hates pandering this as it is already a saga as is | |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:45 - Jan 15 with 1557 views | Guthrum |
| Prediction Thread on 08:59 - Jan 15 by connorscontract |
I don't think she will. She has already announced, at the 1922 Committee vote, that she won't fight the next General Election, and has painted herself into a corner with her comments on a Second Referendum, which maybe (and I believe is) the only way out of this mess. |
Not quite what May said. She stated that she wouldn't lead the party into a General Election in 2022, when scheduled under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. It was left open that if one happened sooner than that, she might. | |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:47 - Jan 15 with 1551 views | wkj |
| Prediction Thread on 09:45 - Jan 15 by Guthrum |
Not quite what May said. She stated that she wouldn't lead the party into a General Election in 2022, when scheduled under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. It was left open that if one happened sooner than that, she might. |
Yikes, surely a defeat today renders her position of party leader and prime minister untenable though? | |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:48 - Jan 15 with 1545 views | jjblue84 |
| Prediction Thread on 09:39 - Jan 15 by wkj |
over this and other posts you've managed to shoot down every scenario, well done |
Nope, try and pay attention!!
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| Prediction Thread on 09:51 - Jan 15 with 1539 views | wkj |
| Prediction Thread on 09:48 - Jan 15 by jjblue84 |
Nope, try and pay attention!!
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I did, you are living up to your mantle as a comedy creation admirably | |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:52 - Jan 15 with 1532 views | Guthrum |
| Prediction Thread on 09:44 - Jan 15 by wkj |
Indeed, the non-partisan committee that should have been in place day one. Would Europe grant a 2 year extension to article 50? Part of me hates pandering this as it is already a saga as is |
Technically, May's Deal is a two-year delay to the withdrawal process, during which a trade deal and other arrangements can be negotiated.
The problem with the No Dealers is they want us out right now (so they can get on with dismantling regulations while Trump is still in the White House). | |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:54 - Jan 15 with 1529 views | chicoazul |
| Prediction Thread on 09:33 - Jan 15 by itfcjoe |
I wish it could be explained that we can control our borders - that EU immigrants can be sent back if not working. That we can and effectively don't limit non-EU immigration.
High immigration is Government policy, and the Government are now blaming it on being in the EU to the people who don't like this policy. |
Ha, yep. As with so many of these things, it comes back to Blair. He didnt want any controls imposed on EU immigration despite having the chance to impose them.
And, to be fair, he was right to do this in many ways. But success for business has come at the expense of societal dysfunction for the low paid working classes of Hull Gt Yarmouth and Margate. | |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:55 - Jan 15 with 1521 views | wkj |
| Prediction Thread on 09:52 - Jan 15 by Guthrum |
Technically, May's Deal is a two-year delay to the withdrawal process, during which a trade deal and other arrangements can be negotiated.
The problem with the No Dealers is they want us out right now (so they can get on with dismantling regulations while Trump is still in the White House). |
Really at this stage I fear they wont have to rush as Trump is positioning himself comfortably for a strong 2020 run; holding the country to ransom and blaming the democrats right before an election campaign? He's planned this all out well, alas I digress. | |
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| Prediction Thread on 09:59 - Jan 15 with 1513 views | Guthrum |
| Prediction Thread on 09:55 - Jan 15 by wkj |
Really at this stage I fear they wont have to rush as Trump is positioning himself comfortably for a strong 2020 run; holding the country to ransom and blaming the democrats right before an election campaign? He's planned this all out well, alas I digress. |
I'd wait and see what happens with that and with the US economy over the next couple of years before coming to conclusions on the likelihood of Trump's reelection. | |
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| Prediction Thread on 10:01 - Jan 15 with 1507 views | wkj |
| Prediction Thread on 09:59 - Jan 15 by Guthrum |
I'd wait and see what happens with that and with the US economy over the next couple of years before coming to conclusions on the likelihood of Trump's reelection. |
Indeed, desprte being a dual citizen, i am unaware of the ins and outs of the US election process, can other republican candidates run of office with a republican incumbent? I swear i glanced past a headline the other day saying a republic congresswoman was considering running. | |
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| Prediction Thread on 10:07 - Jan 15 with 1495 views | Guthrum |
| Prediction Thread on 09:47 - Jan 15 by wkj |
Yikes, surely a defeat today renders her position of party leader and prime minister untenable though? |
There is nothing, short of a vote of no confidence in the government*, which could force Mayto go if she decides to tough it out. The Party blew its chance of dethroning her back in December and cannot try again for a year.
Technically the Queen could remove her, but that would be unprecendented in over 250 years and raise serious constitutional issues.
May will only go if she decides to resign.
* No chance of success without substantial (and unlikely) Conservative backing. | |
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| Prediction Thread on 10:09 - Jan 15 with 1489 views | connorscontract |
| Prediction Thread on 10:01 - Jan 15 by wkj |
Indeed, desprte being a dual citizen, i am unaware of the ins and outs of the US election process, can other republican candidates run of office with a republican incumbent? I swear i glanced past a headline the other day saying a republic congresswoman was considering running. |
Yes. The sitting President has to win the Republican nomination to stand as the Republican candidate.
In reality that is a formality, usually. But these are unusual times!
It could open the possibility of Trump losing the Republican nomination but then standing for re-election as an independent. That would be interesting! | | | |
| Prediction Thread on 10:10 - Jan 15 with 1485 views | jjblue84 |
| Prediction Thread on 09:51 - Jan 15 by wkj |
I did, you are living up to your mantle as a comedy creation admirably |
So I haven’t shot down every scenario then...try and get it right for once!! | | | |
| Prediction Thread on 10:12 - Jan 15 with 1485 views | wkj |
| Prediction Thread on 10:07 - Jan 15 by Guthrum |
There is nothing, short of a vote of no confidence in the government*, which could force Mayto go if she decides to tough it out. The Party blew its chance of dethroning her back in December and cannot try again for a year.
Technically the Queen could remove her, but that would be unprecendented in over 250 years and raise serious constitutional issues.
May will only go if she decides to resign.
* No chance of success without substantial (and unlikely) Conservative backing. |
I was reading up on this the other day regarding the Queen. Would it be that unconstitutional if it is on the grounds the May has failed to live up to her promise to the monarchy to form a functioning government? If the tories go into full rebellion meltdown; you cant help but thing such intervention might be appropriate.
Of course this would likely be seen as the 'nuclear option' - but I don't think we're that far off of the members of commons being unfit for purpose | |
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| Prediction Thread on 10:14 - Jan 15 with 1477 views | wkj |
| Prediction Thread on 10:10 - Jan 15 by jjblue84 |
So I haven’t shot down every scenario then...try and get it right for once!! |
No need to try when I am so damn good at it naturally. | |
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| Prediction Thread on 10:15 - Jan 15 with 1475 views | wkj |
| Prediction Thread on 10:09 - Jan 15 by connorscontract |
Yes. The sitting President has to win the Republican nomination to stand as the Republican candidate.
In reality that is a formality, usually. But these are unusual times!
It could open the possibility of Trump losing the Republican nomination but then standing for re-election as an independent. That would be interesting! |
That would be so destructive it would be painful. If that happened I do think a lot of his current republican pals would suddenly about face. | |
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| Prediction Thread on 10:32 - Jan 15 with 1452 views | Guthrum |
| Prediction Thread on 10:12 - Jan 15 by wkj |
I was reading up on this the other day regarding the Queen. Would it be that unconstitutional if it is on the grounds the May has failed to live up to her promise to the monarchy to form a functioning government? If the tories go into full rebellion meltdown; you cant help but thing such intervention might be appropriate.
Of course this would likely be seen as the 'nuclear option' - but I don't think we're that far off of the members of commons being unfit for purpose |
Under the FTPA2011, the Queen no longer has the right to simply dissolve Parliament and call a General Election upon her own authority. That's gone.
However, given the PM is really only the informal leader of Her Majesty's Government (with no formal constitutional status), it is theoretically possible for her to be recalled and dismissed. But it would create one heck of a row. And to whom would HM offer the chance of forming a new administration? Upon whose advice* would she do such a thing?
* If Parliament were inclined to petition her to do so, it would be far simpler to just pass a simple motion of no confidence under FTPA2011. Tho perhaps if the entire Conservative party and allies wanted a change of leader without an election, it might work. | |
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| Prediction Thread on 13:07 - Jan 15 with 1409 views | ZedRodgers |
1. Government lose vote on withdrawal agreement in record breaking fashion.
2. No alternative WA is offered and Labour table vote of no confidence in government
3. Government win vote of no confidence and Labour are left to decide whether to continue mounting pressure for a GE to break the deadlock or to appease mounting pressure from its own remain supporting members and gain a new consensus on the way forward with regards to a 2nd referendum
4. May and cabinet toy between switching official government policy to no deal, continuing to run down the clock in an attempt to change minds of those (blackmail) who voted down the WA, or offering a people's vote just on her deal or no deal (with the knowledge that opposition would be able to add the remain option) to back Labour into a corner.
It's very difficult to make baseless and hypothetical predictions beyond that. My fear is that things will become even uglier if we go from the current deadlock situation straight into a 2nd referendum campaign. We need a new government who are brave enough to unite people on the issues that Brexit has become a emblem for and one that offers compromise on the faux-choices that Brexit offers.
There is no majority for no deal, May's deal, a left wing Brexit, or even a 2nd referendum - especially in the HoC, despite how difficult that is for Remainers to accept. A large percentage of the country share Neil Warnock's opinions.
IMO, a general election is not only the preferable way out of this, but the ONLY way out of this. I suspect Labour will be the ones that are savvy enough to build a manifesto that looks at the bigger picture, whilst offering its members a choice between a campaign-to-remain approach, or attempting to heal the nation's wounds by meeting on the middle on various issues. |  |
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| Prediction Thread on 13:47 - Jan 15 with 1385 views | Championship |
Deal voted down by a massive margin. Politicians will want to look like they are on the winning side and it is definitely going to lose so nothing to lose. May will rise like a phenom to shouts and taunts from the opposition benches. She will look Rees-Mogg right in the eye as she announces referendum 2, hard Brexit vs no Brexit.
Farage live on the BBC will be livid and claim that is what the first referendum was. A remainer will be claiming sanity has prevailed. Both will predict landslides for their side.
Meanwhile, back at ERG HQ, there will be mutiny. Half of them will announce plans to get May to change her mind and bring her vote back to parliament. They'll hang their hat on a very minor amendment. She will refuse. They will panic. Rees-Mogg will go quiet and won't be seen for a couple of months. Gove will become a remainer. Boris will go silent and disappear for a while. Farage will announce his comeback to lead the remain campaign as the first lot realise there's nothing in it for them and refuse to run the campaign again. We'll have a toxic campaign centred around immigration. Leave will be defeated 68-32.
Juncker and Tusk will emerge from the depths of EU HQ all smiles. They will embrace. Tusk will whisper "i'm sorry" in Juncker's ear and throw him through a nearby barbershop window. Tony Blair will emerge to the GOT theme tune and they will embrace before making the New World Order hand gesture. |  | | |
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