By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions. We in turn value your personal details in accordance with our Privacy Policy.
Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:42 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
Well here's an expert -
"If those numbers are quite large then actually the reported mortality rates could be very much over estimated."
2 minute mark -
[Post edited 14 Mar 2020 14:47]
Nobody has disagreed that the mortality figures are likely overestimated.
I still don't know what point you are trying to make? Virtually all experts agree the r0 and the mortality rate of Covid is higher than flu, in fact the mortality rate from the WHO estimate is 60x that of flu.
So once again, what point are you trying to make and why are you making unhelpful comparisons to flu?
SB
0
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:54 - Mar 14 with 2218 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:49 - Mar 14 by StokieBlue
Nobody has disagreed that the mortality figures are likely overestimated.
I still don't know what point you are trying to make? Virtually all experts agree the r0 and the mortality rate of Covid is higher than flu, in fact the mortality rate from the WHO estimate is 60x that of flu.
So once again, what point are you trying to make and why are you making unhelpful comparisons to flu?
SB
You knowingly quoted overestimated guesswork -
"That document cites 5,290,000 cases of flu. Given the mortality rate in Italy of Covid 19 that would be nearly 400,000 deaths."
-2
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:11 - Mar 14 with 2194 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:54 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
You knowingly quoted overestimated guesswork -
"That document cites 5,290,000 cases of flu. Given the mortality rate in Italy of Covid 19 that would be nearly 400,000 deaths."
No.
That is an extrapolation based on the best numbers we currently have for Italy. One can only work with the number available.
Whereas you posted whatabouterry about another disease with a far lower mortality rate and r0 in some attempt to play down the current issues.
You've still not said what your actual point is despite being asked 3 times. Why did you decide to draw parallels to the flu when virtually all experts say that is an incorrect comparison and that Covid 19 is a more dangerous virus?
Can you please answer this time? It's rather rude to keep ignoring peoples questions.
SB
0
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:23 - Mar 14 with 2174 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:11 - Mar 14 by StokieBlue
No.
That is an extrapolation based on the best numbers we currently have for Italy. One can only work with the number available.
Whereas you posted whatabouterry about another disease with a far lower mortality rate and r0 in some attempt to play down the current issues.
You've still not said what your actual point is despite being asked 3 times. Why did you decide to draw parallels to the flu when virtually all experts say that is an incorrect comparison and that Covid 19 is a more dangerous virus?
Can you please answer this time? It's rather rude to keep ignoring peoples questions.
SB
My point is the possibly very much over estimated mortality rate which the epidemiologist in the clip explained are based on assumptions which ties in also with what J2Blue mentioned earlier that many more might have it but their symptoms might be so mild that they don't even know it.
Epidemiologist -
"What we don't know still is how many individuals are in the population and may be infected but have very mild symptoms".
0
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:26 - Mar 14 with 2167 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:23 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
My point is the possibly very much over estimated mortality rate which the epidemiologist in the clip explained are based on assumptions which ties in also with what J2Blue mentioned earlier that many more might have it but their symptoms might be so mild that they don't even know it.
Epidemiologist -
"What we don't know still is how many individuals are in the population and may be infected but have very mild symptoms".
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 20:23 - Mar 13 by BloomBlue
I'm not talking about it from political or ideology sense I'm talking about it from saving people's lives, if all these EU countries believe locking down and stopping movement will reduce the spread and deaths doesnt it make sense for the EU to suspend free movement.
These decisions are a matter for national governments, not the EU. Perhaps if people understood what the EU does and doesn't do they wouldn't have voted to leave. Shame people can't be arsed to educate themselves really.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:23 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
My point is the possibly very much over estimated mortality rate which the epidemiologist in the clip explained are based on assumptions which ties in also with what J2Blue mentioned earlier that many more might have it but their symptoms might be so mild that they don't even know it.
Epidemiologist -
"What we don't know still is how many individuals are in the population and may be infected but have very mild symptoms".
What does that have to do with your initial post:
"Yes but worth bearing in mind though is that in Italy in the winter of 2016/2017 it was estimated that there were over 24,000 deaths due to a flu epidemic."
You still aren't answering the question. Why did you want to draw this equivalence when most experts say it's false? It's simply a way of playing down the virus. I have no idea why you would want to do that.
SB
0
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:34 - Mar 14 with 2156 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:26 - Mar 14 by StokieBlue
What does that have to do with your initial post:
"Yes but worth bearing in mind though is that in Italy in the winter of 2016/2017 it was estimated that there were over 24,000 deaths due to a flu epidemic."
You still aren't answering the question. Why did you want to draw this equivalence when most experts say it's false? It's simply a way of playing down the virus. I have no idea why you would want to do that.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:34 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
For perspective.
Which nearly all experts in the field have said is exactly what we shouldn't be doing.
Adding your "perspective" plays down the risk. They are trying to stop Covid becoming as big as the flu because if it does it will kill a lot more people.
SB
0
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:57 - Mar 14 with 2132 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:49 - Mar 14 by StokieBlue
Which nearly all experts in the field have said is exactly what we shouldn't be doing.
Adding your "perspective" plays down the risk. They are trying to stop Covid becoming as big as the flu because if it does it will kill a lot more people.
SB
We shouldn't play down a risk, we should remain as grounded as we can all the time being aware of the possibility of a very much over estimated mortality rate.
0
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:09 - Mar 14 with 2114 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:57 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
We shouldn't play down a risk, we should remain as grounded as we can all the time being aware of the possibility of a very much over estimated mortality rate.
That's basically been Stoke's mission statement since this whole thing started.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 15:57 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
We shouldn't play down a risk, we should remain as grounded as we can all the time being aware of the possibility of a very much over estimated mortality rate.
You're not actually making any point are you?
You're telling people what they already know and trying to look clever.
As others say, for those who aren't grasping the possibilities this pandemic may bring, it's not helpful to spread rumours that it's f*ck all to worry about.
I have been to a local shop this morning and the chap behind the till (who must speak with tons of people every day) is still saying out loud that it's "all a fuss over nothing" and then quoting sh1t about flu.
His younger colleague was telling punters only yesterday that face masks come form China anyway.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:09 - Mar 14 by J2BLUE
That's basically been Stoke's mission statement since this whole thing started.
The possibility of a very much over estimated current mortality rate means we should refrain from making guesstimates regarding the possible future mortality rate.
0
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:24 - Mar 14 with 2090 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:24 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
The possibility of a very much over estimated current mortality rate means we should refrain from making guesstimates regarding the possible future mortality rate.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:21 - Mar 14 by jeera
You're not actually making any point are you?
You're telling people what they already know and trying to look clever.
As others say, for those who aren't grasping the possibilities this pandemic may bring, it's not helpful to spread rumours that it's f*ck all to worry about.
I have been to a local shop this morning and the chap behind the till (who must speak with tons of people every day) is still saying out loud that it's "all a fuss over nothing" and then quoting sh1t about flu.
His younger colleague was telling punters only yesterday that face masks come form China anyway.
I hate some people.
Wtf, lol, are you for real or what?
Show me where i have tried to spread rumours that it's f*ck all to worry about -
0
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:38 - Mar 14 with 2066 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:28 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
Wtf, lol, are you for real or what?
Show me where i have tried to spread rumours that it's f*ck all to worry about -
Wtf hur hur.
You've been countering anything that's been said trying to play it down.
It's like the fool I mentioned in the shop. You make comparisons with the flu, trying to normalise the issue comparing it with something we're all familiar with.
You accuse others of sensationalising but then do the opposite and deliberately play it down.
Over-estimates, if that's what they turn out to be, play a greater benefit of making people think about their actions and behaving accordingly.
I see it everyday. The last thing needed is to reinforce the notion it's not so bad after all.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:21 - Mar 14 by jeera
You're not actually making any point are you?
You're telling people what they already know and trying to look clever.
As others say, for those who aren't grasping the possibilities this pandemic may bring, it's not helpful to spread rumours that it's f*ck all to worry about.
I have been to a local shop this morning and the chap behind the till (who must speak with tons of people every day) is still saying out loud that it's "all a fuss over nothing" and then quoting sh1t about flu.
His younger colleague was telling punters only yesterday that face masks come form China anyway.
I hate some people.
Absolutely this.
Everyone I've been speaking to seems to be very level-headed and keeping in good spirits, following the advice given and all that. But then some loons are just spouting off mad theories. If you don't know, shut up and say nothing.
Dear old footers KC - Private Counsel to Big Farmer - Liberator of Vichy TWTD
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:38 - Mar 14 by jeera
Wtf hur hur.
You've been countering anything that's been said trying to play it down.
It's like the fool I mentioned in the shop. You make comparisons with the flu, trying to normalise the issue comparing it with something we're all familiar with.
You accuse others of sensationalising but then do the opposite and deliberately play it down.
Over-estimates, if that's what they turn out to be, play a greater benefit of making people think about their actions and behaving accordingly.
I see it everyday. The last thing needed is to reinforce the notion it's not so bad after all.
Flu epidemics are deadly, nothing normalizing about them, over 24,000 deaths in Italy in one winter isn't something we're all familiar with.
The epidemiologist in the clip then who mentioned the possibility of a very much over estimate, is he a "bad" expert in your view then?
-2
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:51 - Mar 14 with 2040 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:39 - Mar 14 by footers
Absolutely this.
Everyone I've been speaking to seems to be very level-headed and keeping in good spirits, following the advice given and all that. But then some loons are just spouting off mad theories. If you don't know, shut up and say nothing.
I've got the hump partly because I've spent the past couple of weeks trying to drum this into my elderly mother that maybe she needs to be rethinking some of her routine.
Mondays, she does here, Tuesdays there...It's great she gets out at her age but I worry she's not listening. At 82 she's in the most vulnerable group and not in top health.
I get annoyed when I hear people like that tw@t in the store telling his [mostly elderly] customers there's nothing to worry about.
Does he think entire nations are in shut down because they think it's funny?
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:50 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
Flu epidemics are deadly, nothing normalizing about them, over 24,000 deaths in Italy in one winter isn't something we're all familiar with.
The epidemiologist in the clip then who mentioned the possibility of a very much over estimate, is he a "bad" expert in your view then?
You've entirely missed the point which I did spent some time trying to get through to you.
Nobody is saying flu isn't bad, everyone knows it kills. It's also endemic in the human population and thus many people get infected every year. We also have effective vaccines for some types of flu.
Covid-19 is not yet endemic and that is what governments are trying to stop. If it becomes endemic then it will kill more people than flu. All experts agree on this regardless of whether the mortality rate is lower than current WHO estimates it's still higher than flu by a long way and it's still more infectious as well.
This is why you pushing the flu angle is unhelpful and it could actually cause harm. You are downplaying it just through your insistence to compare. Pleases stop it.
SB
0
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 17:03 - Mar 14 with 2015 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 18:15 - Mar 13 by catch74
I’m just trying to get my head around the figures in Italy. 15000 cases, 1400 recovered, 1200 dead so far!! I’m assuming there must be a lot of unreported cases - but that’s a huge % surely??
I think pretty much all of the stats need to be taken with a pretty large pinch of salt at the moment. Certainly in terms of comparing one country with another, where testing frequencies, infrastructure, openness etc. are going to vary wildly.
I'd only view the numbers as significant in terms of trends within what I'd subjectively consider to be a relatively reliable regime (e.g. Germany) and even then you need to be aware of any step changes in that country's measurement systems etc. over time.
I don't think ANYBODY will know the true picture with any degree of accuracy until after it all calms down a lot, and so basing any assumptions of death or survival rates on the sort of crude data that is being presented at the moment is not really sound.
We tend to get desperate for all the latest facts and figures these days to make us feel that 'the scientists' are in control of it all, but often that's just a sop, and we could do with a more robust qualitative as opposed to quantitative attitude.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 17:15 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
"is he a "bad" expert in your view then?"
I haven't decided anything for you.
See that question mark above?, means it's a question, ok?
[Post edited 14 Mar 2020 17:20]
I've just listened to what the guy had to say and he seems a perfectly reasonable chap who knowledgeably repeats there what we've already been told repeatedly.
For some bizarre reason you've leapt excitedly on the part where he's told us what we already know, that there may be many people who unknowingly have the disease but with mild symptoms, which would therefore bring down the current estimates of the mortality rate percentage.
That's your point? So what?
As if you think that simple point that everyone already knows makes you smart.
You utter tool. You're more an idiot than I dared think.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 16:51 - Mar 14 by jeera
I've got the hump partly because I've spent the past couple of weeks trying to drum this into my elderly mother that maybe she needs to be rethinking some of her routine.
Mondays, she does here, Tuesdays there...It's great she gets out at her age but I worry she's not listening. At 82 she's in the most vulnerable group and not in top health.
I get annoyed when I hear people like that tw@t in the store telling his [mostly elderly] customers there's nothing to worry about.
Does he think entire nations are in shut down because they think it's funny?
To be fair to him, it could be the biggest Gotcha! Noel has ever done.
Dear old footers KC - Private Counsel to Big Farmer - Liberator of Vichy TWTD
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
