| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports 13:19 - Apr 25 with 3573 views | StokieBlue |
From Guardian:
The World Health Organization said on Saturday there was currently “no evidence” that people who have recovered from coronavirus are protected from a second infection — even if they now have antibodies against it.
In a statement, the UN health agency warned against issuing “immunity passports” or “risk-free certificates” to people who have been infected, saying the practice may actually increase the risk of spread as they may ignore standard advice.
It also warned that the accuracy and reliability of tests for antibodies to coronavirus were not certain.
“Inaccurate immunodiagnostic tests may falsely categorise people in two ways,” the WHO’s latest scientific brief said. “The first is that they may falsely label people who have been infected as negative, and the second is that people who have not been infected are falsely labelled as positive. Both errors have serious consequences and will affect control efforts.”
That essentially goes against what most countries seem to be planning to do to ease or lift the lockdowns.
SB |  | | |  |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:20 - Apr 25 with 2168 views | monytowbray |
“Herd immunity”. |  |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:27 - Apr 25 with 2151 views | Trequartista |
Does that mean you probably are protected but it cannot be proven, or does it mean you're probably not? If the latter, doesn't that make vaccines obsolete and we're done for? |  |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:27 - Apr 25 with 2150 views | StokieBlue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:20 - Apr 25 by monytowbray |
“Herd immunity”. |
When that was said that they didn't have the information published today. The problem with it then was that it would lead to too many deaths in the shorter term rather than herd immunity not being possible over the longer term so I don't think your post is entirely fair.
Most scientists have been saying that herd immunity would need to be part of the long term solution and this statement casts some doubt on that although more studies need to be done.
SB | | | |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:31 - Apr 25 with 2131 views | StokieBlue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:27 - Apr 25 by Trequartista |
Does that mean you probably are protected but it cannot be proven, or does it mean you're probably not? If the latter, doesn't that make vaccines obsolete and we're done for? |
Good question, I take it to mean that there is "no evidence" at the moment that it protects you from a second batch of C19 and given this, letting people out who have had it could increase infection rates and start another wave.
There has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine but 80 are being developed at the moment - that is an unprecedented research effort so I feel we need to remain positive that a vaccine will be found and will work.
SB | | | |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:32 - Apr 25 with 2113 views | Ely_Blue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:27 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
When that was said that they didn't have the information published today. The problem with it then was that it would lead to too many deaths in the shorter term rather than herd immunity not being possible over the longer term so I don't think your post is entirely fair.
Most scientists have been saying that herd immunity would need to be part of the long term solution and this statement casts some doubt on that although more studies need to be done.
SB |
Ultimately if we are to believe a lot of the info we are being fed either by WHO, UN , scientists, virologists then nobody really has a clue as to what will happen, the other thing is that lockdown will only suppress this for so long, so either every country locks down and locks their borders down until a vaccine is found or we will end up with the same infection and mortality rates the world over, they will just happen at different times |  |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:34 - Apr 25 with 2112 views | Trequartista |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:31 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
Good question, I take it to mean that there is "no evidence" at the moment that it protects you from a second batch of C19 and given this, letting people out who have had it could increase infection rates and start another wave.
There has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine but 80 are being developed at the moment - that is an unprecedented research effort so I feel we need to remain positive that a vaccine will be found and will work.
SB |
Thanks, i do ask daft questions from time to time. Oxford University seem quite confident, i'm reading about their vaccine trials rather than the death counts, feels much better. I would imagine the reason there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine is because it's not worth pumping in millions to vaccinate against the common cold? | |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:35 - Apr 25 with 2107 views | StokieBlue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:32 - Apr 25 by Ely_Blue |
Ultimately if we are to believe a lot of the info we are being fed either by WHO, UN , scientists, virologists then nobody really has a clue as to what will happen, the other thing is that lockdown will only suppress this for so long, so either every country locks down and locks their borders down until a vaccine is found or we will end up with the same infection and mortality rates the world over, they will just happen at different times |
"lockdown will only suppress this for so long".
I am not sure this is true, lockdown has been proven to lower the r0 to less than 1 which means it will eventually reduce infections to a small amount. It's whether it's palatable or possible to keep people in lockdown until 2021 for instance.
I think for many people it's simply not something that can be accomplished.
SB | | | |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:37 - Apr 25 with 2094 views | longtimefan |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:31 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
Good question, I take it to mean that there is "no evidence" at the moment that it protects you from a second batch of C19 and given this, letting people out who have had it could increase infection rates and start another wave.
There has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine but 80 are being developed at the moment - that is an unprecedented research effort so I feel we need to remain positive that a vaccine will be found and will work.
SB |
I’d have thought given the lifting of lockdown and reinstatement of transport links in Wuhan, there would be evidence by now whether or not some sort of immunity exists? |  | | |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:39 - Apr 25 with 2082 views | monytowbray |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:27 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
When that was said that they didn't have the information published today. The problem with it then was that it would lead to too many deaths in the shorter term rather than herd immunity not being possible over the longer term so I don't think your post is entirely fair.
Most scientists have been saying that herd immunity would need to be part of the long term solution and this statement casts some doubt on that although more studies need to be done.
SB |
No sh1t. Some of us said that 6 weeks ago and you were amongst those giving it pelters. | |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:42 - Apr 25 with 2073 views | StokieBlue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:34 - Apr 25 by Trequartista |
Thanks, i do ask daft questions from time to time. Oxford University seem quite confident, i'm reading about their vaccine trials rather than the death counts, feels much better. I would imagine the reason there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine is because it's not worth pumping in millions to vaccinate against the common cold? |
Money is spent on trying to find a vaccine for the common cold but those strains of coronavirus mutate quickly and regularly but are luckily not very dangerous as you've pointed out.
I believe C19 has a self-correcting mechanism built into it's RNA which means the mutations don't happen as quickly as in the common cold but they are happening. Hopefully this will make it possible to make a vaccine but it could still mutate at any time (for better or worse).
At the moment though, information is key and the world doesn't have enough of it.
SB | | | |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:49 - Apr 25 with 2049 views | StokieBlue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:39 - Apr 25 by monytowbray |
No sh1t. Some of us said that 6 weeks ago and you were amongst those giving it pelters. |
Your post was flippant and unfair in the context of the opening post.
I don't believe I was giving anyone "pelters" with regards to herd immunity. I've just looked through BlueLagos 7 page thread on herd immunity and I didn't give any pelters and even said it wasn't the best solution.
Care to link to where that happened please so I can see?
SB [Post edited 25 Apr 2020 13:51]
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:56 - Apr 25 with 2024 views | Bluesquid |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:34 - Apr 25 by Trequartista |
Thanks, i do ask daft questions from time to time. Oxford University seem quite confident, i'm reading about their vaccine trials rather than the death counts, feels much better. I would imagine the reason there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine is because it's not worth pumping in millions to vaccinate against the common cold? |
"Oxford University seem quite confident"
Oh i'm sure they are what with the millions in funding that they have received from Bill Gates and also the sponsorship and/or funding by vaccine manufacturers. | | | |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:58 - Apr 25 with 2021 views | StokieBlue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:56 - Apr 25 by Bluesquid |
"Oxford University seem quite confident"
Oh i'm sure they are what with the millions in funding that they have received from Bill Gates and also the sponsorship and/or funding by vaccine manufacturers. |
What does the source of the funding have to do with their confidence on making a vaccine?
Research takes money, having more of it would make one more confident.
Perhaps you want to spell out why it's an issue rather than posting a sentence laden with hidden innuendo?
SB | | | |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:59 - Apr 25 with 2016 views | Bluesquid |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:58 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
What does the source of the funding have to do with their confidence on making a vaccine?
Research takes money, having more of it would make one more confident.
Perhaps you want to spell out why it's an issue rather than posting a sentence laden with hidden innuendo?
SB |
Bill Gates has poured millions into Oxford University. | | | |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 15:33 - Apr 25 with 1942 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:37 - Apr 25 by longtimefan |
I’d have thought given the lifting of lockdown and reinstatement of transport links in Wuhan, there would be evidence by now whether or not some sort of immunity exists? |
You would think so wouldn't you....along with other countries that suppressed the initial wave. |  |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 16:34 - Apr 25 with 1896 views | Guthrum |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:59 - Apr 25 by Bluesquid |
Bill Gates has poured millions into Oxford University. |
Pretty unsurprising. He's poured tens of millions into medical causes worldwide. |  |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 16:40 - Apr 25 with 1889 views | StokieBlue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:49 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
Your post was flippant and unfair in the context of the opening post.
I don't believe I was giving anyone "pelters" with regards to herd immunity. I've just looked through BlueLagos 7 page thread on herd immunity and I didn't give any pelters and even said it wasn't the best solution.
Care to link to where that happened please so I can see?
SB [Post edited 25 Apr 2020 13:51]
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Are you going to link to these "pelters" I was giving with regards to herd immunity?
I am getting older and perhaps I have forgotten them, however I am pretty sure they don't exist.
SB | | | |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 16:48 - Apr 25 with 1876 views | Guthrum |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:32 - Apr 25 by Ely_Blue |
Ultimately if we are to believe a lot of the info we are being fed either by WHO, UN , scientists, virologists then nobody really has a clue as to what will happen, the other thing is that lockdown will only suppress this for so long, so either every country locks down and locks their borders down until a vaccine is found or we will end up with the same infection and mortality rates the world over, they will just happen at different times |
Partly depends on how much of the population has it. If a very low number, as some random sampling studies are suggesting, then the disease could be, if not eradicated, at least forced into abeyance. After all, infection numbers fell in China and South Korea - and are doing so in a number of other places - without, apparently, most of the population having caught it.
South Korea had a very vigourous testing regime, particularly centered in the city of Daegu, where the main outbreak was. They have had 10,700 cases in the whole country. The population of Daegu alone is nearly 2.5m. That means either 99.5% of people in the city caught it and were asymptomatic/missed by testing, or they did not catch it and the disease died down to to social distancing making it hard to transmit. Starved of new victims, if you like.
Why did this not happen in Italy, Spain and the UK? Perhaps there the disease got a bit more of a head start (much of the Daegu outbreak was within a large, but exclusive, church, making it easier to contain). In the first two of those, numbers are beginning to reduce. Also, in this country we keep going to supermarkets, which appear to be the primary transmission locations and perhaps why are numbers are not reducing. | |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 16:51 - Apr 25 with 1869 views | Guthrum |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:31 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
Good question, I take it to mean that there is "no evidence" at the moment that it protects you from a second batch of C19 and given this, letting people out who have had it could increase infection rates and start another wave.
There has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine but 80 are being developed at the moment - that is an unprecedented research effort so I feel we need to remain positive that a vaccine will be found and will work.
SB |
Precisely that. There is no direct evidence having caught it confers immunity and some evidence it can be caught again, or "reactivated" in some way. It also seems to last a lot longer after most symptoms have disappeared than they thought, tho it may not be infectious in that phase. | |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 17:00 - Apr 25 with 1849 views | No9 |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:27 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
When that was said that they didn't have the information published today. The problem with it then was that it would lead to too many deaths in the shorter term rather than herd immunity not being possible over the longer term so I don't think your post is entirely fair.
Most scientists have been saying that herd immunity would need to be part of the long term solution and this statement casts some doubt on that although more studies need to be done.
SB |
A scientist on the radio, the other day, was explaining that 'herd immunity' is unlikely with this type of virus reminding everyone the evidence to suggest there will never be 'herd immunity' is down to the fact they modify which is why a Flu vacine has to be given to many people each winter | | | |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 17:09 - Apr 25 with 1841 views | monytowbray |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 16:40 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
Are you going to link to these "pelters" I was giving with regards to herd immunity?
I am getting older and perhaps I have forgotten them, however I am pretty sure they don't exist.
SB |
I’ve told you already, you can get answers from me to questions from me when you acknowledge you lied about who raised ventilators in a thread. Until then, you can read and you know how to use the internet.
The option is there but someone doesn’t like what they might have to admit if they even acknowledge what I’ve asked you multiple times. Ammarite? | |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 17:15 - Apr 25 with 1827 views | StokieBlue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 17:09 - Apr 25 by monytowbray |
I’ve told you already, you can get answers from me to questions from me when you acknowledge you lied about who raised ventilators in a thread. Until then, you can read and you know how to use the internet.
The option is there but someone doesn’t like what they might have to admit if they even acknowledge what I’ve asked you multiple times. Ammarite? |
Unbelievable hypocrisy given your clearly wrong here, and you were wrong when I asked you to link posts the other day.
You won't because you can't.
I didn't bring you into this thread, I'm giving you a wide berth. You responded to my post with something that was wrong then followed it up with a post lying about my previous views.
I'm sick of you just making up stuff about me and other posters yet you are the first to yell and scream if you think you've been wronged.
SB [Post edited 25 Apr 2020 17:21]
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 18:05 - Apr 25 with 1769 views | Ely_Blue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 13:35 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
"lockdown will only suppress this for so long".
I am not sure this is true, lockdown has been proven to lower the r0 to less than 1 which means it will eventually reduce infections to a small amount. It's whether it's palatable or possible to keep people in lockdown until 2021 for instance.
I think for many people it's simply not something that can be accomplished.
SB |
Sorry I think I miss represented what I meant, what I meant to say was that lockdown will suppress this but it can’t stay as it is forever giving the r0 to less than 1, what I meant was that as soon as lockdown is eased in any way that surely the same numbers that were going to catch it or die from it will do so unless the virus either disappears or reaches saturation point | |
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 18:06 - Apr 25 with 1768 views | monytowbray |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 17:15 - Apr 25 by StokieBlue |
Unbelievable hypocrisy given your clearly wrong here, and you were wrong when I asked you to link posts the other day.
You won't because you can't.
I didn't bring you into this thread, I'm giving you a wide berth. You responded to my post with something that was wrong then followed it up with a post lying about my previous views.
I'm sick of you just making up stuff about me and other posters yet you are the first to yell and scream if you think you've been wronged.
SB [Post edited 25 Apr 2020 17:21]
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Look who ignored my very simple question again.
I will happily answer you if you address what you’ve spent two weeks swerving and if you were THAT desperate for answers and to not deflect instead.
I suppose you could always run off crying to the admins again though. [Post edited 25 Apr 2020 18:09]
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| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 18:08 - Apr 25 with 1769 views | Ely_Blue |
| WHO not keen on easing lockdowns with immunity passports on 16:48 - Apr 25 by Guthrum |
Partly depends on how much of the population has it. If a very low number, as some random sampling studies are suggesting, then the disease could be, if not eradicated, at least forced into abeyance. After all, infection numbers fell in China and South Korea - and are doing so in a number of other places - without, apparently, most of the population having caught it.
South Korea had a very vigourous testing regime, particularly centered in the city of Daegu, where the main outbreak was. They have had 10,700 cases in the whole country. The population of Daegu alone is nearly 2.5m. That means either 99.5% of people in the city caught it and were asymptomatic/missed by testing, or they did not catch it and the disease died down to to social distancing making it hard to transmit. Starved of new victims, if you like.
Why did this not happen in Italy, Spain and the UK? Perhaps there the disease got a bit more of a head start (much of the Daegu outbreak was within a large, but exclusive, church, making it easier to contain). In the first two of those, numbers are beginning to reduce. Also, in this country we keep going to supermarkets, which appear to be the primary transmission locations and perhaps why are numbers are not reducing. |
A very sensible post, thanks for the very informative info, I hadn’t thought about it that way in that the virus could get to the stage where it literally has no new hosts to pass to.
I guess it depends on how virilant it is when it gets down to a handful infected and lockdown is lifted so to speak | |
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