Forum | So...not really a lockdown then. by homer_123

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So...not really a lockdown then. 18:33 - Oct 31 with 11250 views

Still meet 1 person outdoors outside your bubble.

Schools and Unis stay open.

Take aways stay open.

	Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Poll:	As things stand, how confident are you we will get promoted this season?

So...not really a lockdown then. on 09:30 - Nov 2 with 506 views

jonbull88

So...not really a lockdown then. on 13:56 - Nov 1 by JDB23
How do you explain the excess death number then? Did we suddenly just accumulate an extra 50k people with fatal "chronic illness" than would be expected normally?

My biggest bug bearer is anyone who dies with or up to 28 days after a positive test is counted as a COVID death. It’s been stated previously that if patients have COVID no post-mortem is undertaken due to corona “being too contagious”. This means a potential real cause of death is being missed imo. I’m not saying that COVID isn’t the cause of death, however to “die of” or “die with” are two very different things.

So...not really a lockdown then. on 09:37 - Nov 2 with 480 views

bluelagos

So...not really a lockdown then. on 09:30 - Nov 2 by jonbull88

It will never be perfect.

At the moment, recover from CV, hit by a bus 2 weeks later and you are a CV death. Catch CV, spend 5 weeks sighting it / on a ventilator etc. die after 5 weeks and you are not a CV death.

So there will be under and over counting. Hence why the excess deaths is such a good statistic as it is not liable to intentional (or accidental) under/over counting. It simply measures how many more people have died this year than expected. It also enable country comparisons.

[Post edited 2 Nov 2020 9:39]

Poll:

This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

So...not really a lockdown then. on 09:38 - Nov 2 with 477 views

StokieBlue

So...not really a lockdown then. on 09:30 - Nov 2 by jonbull88

I am not sure they are that different at the moment for the majority of cases. C19 puts a massive strain on the body and thus any other conditions or issues are more likely to cause a fatality. That is why in the US deaths can be listed as pneumonia due to C19 or whatever.

Obviously there will be instances where this form of reporting will be incorrect but for the vast majority it will give an accurate picture and is further supported by looking at the excess deaths figures.

SB

SB - (not Simon Batford)

So...not really a lockdown then. on 09:43 - Nov 2 with 460 views

Swansea_Blue

So...not really a lockdown then. on 09:30 - Nov 2 by jonbull88

I'd have though the excess death toll is the perfect argument against their being major structural problems with the recording of deaths, be that uncertainty of the main cause of death, Covid deaths outside of hospitals not being counted, etc. It's the best way to look at the overall trend. The excess deaths around the world for this year diverged so significantly from the longer term baseline, it's hard to argue that Covid hasn't been a significant problem.

Poll:

Do you think Pert is key to all of this?

So...not really a lockdown then. on 11:55 - Nov 2 with 394 views

itfc_bucks

So...not really a lockdown then. on 13:47 - Nov 1 by airliner

They predicted in March 500,000 would die, it never happened. So I do have a sceptical image of the predictions that they coming out with now. I don’t support trump, I am not an anti vaxer, and wear a mask. Sometimes for 12 hours a time when on an aircraft. A lot of people who passed away in first wave were chronically ill and would not have survived. It was the virus that killed them but their conditions. But the scientist felt fit to put their deaths down to Covid and claim 44000 died of it.

Possibly the thickest posting I've seen on here.

And I've read some of your earlier efforts!

So...not really a lockdown then. on 14:17 - Nov 2 with 360 views

jonbull88

So...not really a lockdown then. on 09:43 - Nov 2 by Swansea_Blue

Is it though. I heard several things this last few weeks, I’m only going on what I’ve heard, so if anyone wishes to correct me go ahead please. But apparently something like 25000 women have had late breast cancer diagnoses since March, which have or will effect mortality down the line. Also that there has been a 24% increase the numbers of people dying of heart disease. Again since March lockdown. For me the excess deaths might give you a rough view of COVID deaths, but for me by not having a post-mortem on every suspected corona death your just lumping potential regular deaths in with that number.

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