| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:29 - Jan 29 with 2052 views | Ryorry |
Apologies I'm too tired to read the links & if the info's contained in them, but couldn't it just pop back in a mutated form? |  |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:30 - Jan 29 with 2040 views | gordon |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:29 - Jan 29 by Ryorry |
Apologies I'm too tired to read the links & if the info's contained in them, but couldn't it just pop back in a mutated form? |
Yes, we're not going to eradicate influenza. |  | | |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:42 - Jan 29 with 1998 views | Lord_Lucan |
I was listening to the radio today as I was in the middle of a bloody mind sapping 5 hour drive and Mr Whitty was saying some stuff. Basically he said thus - if this pandemic had happened 10 years ago then there would actually be no way that we could have developed a vaccine. Basically we would all be in a bit of a pickle.
Thing is - makes me wonder a bit. What have we had, 100k deaths? Most of those people (the absolute majority by a mile) have been people who were on their way out. If you really took a step back this pandemic is just a warning as it's not that severe. If we had 5 million deaths then it's panic stations Arizona - but it's not. However - I do have a feeling that the virus is going to beat the vaccine, whether we can tweek it I don't know but I really believe that we are still in very early stages of this sh1t.
I think Callis had a very valid point some time back, the way we are destroying our planet is exactly why this stuff is happening and unless we change our ways we are gonna feel the repercussions.
Hopefully man will find the answer before it's too late, as I think it will do with climate change but - hold on to your seatbelts baby. |  |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:47 - Jan 29 with 1948 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:29 - Jan 29 by Ryorry |
Apologies I'm too tired to read the links & if the info's contained in them, but couldn't it just pop back in a mutated form? |
The graph shows other years in blue and 2020 in red. In the other years flu is widely present in the population during winter months, then falls back to a low residual level through Spring and Summer before climbing in Autumn and peaking in Winter again.
This graph (for the Northern Hemisphere) shows that in 2020 it dropped to historically low levels in Spring and Summer and then didn't rise during winter. At all. And it will go into Spring from a historically low level and onto Summer, and people may well still be maintaining Covid hygiene worldwide.
So if influenza viruses are hosted in historically low numbers for two summers in a row, they will be almost eradicated. If they aren't parasitically hitching a ride in a host then they die. And if they aren't transmitted on from a host before that host's immune system overwhelms them, or they kill the host, then they die. We are talking an incredibly small R number here. So we are talking about any possible transmissions coming from a tiny base, and therefore the potential reach being much smaller during the peak, winter, season, before the die off with warmer weather. IF people maintain good hygiene practices then eradication could be possible.
No flights (or at least less flights) between North and South hemisphere countries will help. The Chartr article says similar results were recorded in the Southern hemisphere winter. People moving from one hemisphere at the end of the peak (early spring) to the other hemisphere as it is about to enter the peak (Autumn) keep reinforcing the latent virus population.
It's remarkable stuff! |  | | |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:48 - Jan 29 with 1945 views | J2BLUE |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:42 - Jan 29 by Lord_Lucan |
I was listening to the radio today as I was in the middle of a bloody mind sapping 5 hour drive and Mr Whitty was saying some stuff. Basically he said thus - if this pandemic had happened 10 years ago then there would actually be no way that we could have developed a vaccine. Basically we would all be in a bit of a pickle.
Thing is - makes me wonder a bit. What have we had, 100k deaths? Most of those people (the absolute majority by a mile) have been people who were on their way out. If you really took a step back this pandemic is just a warning as it's not that severe. If we had 5 million deaths then it's panic stations Arizona - but it's not. However - I do have a feeling that the virus is going to beat the vaccine, whether we can tweek it I don't know but I really believe that we are still in very early stages of this sh1t.
I think Callis had a very valid point some time back, the way we are destroying our planet is exactly why this stuff is happening and unless we change our ways we are gonna feel the repercussions.
Hopefully man will find the answer before it's too late, as I think it will do with climate change but - hold on to your seatbelts baby. |
I think we'll beat this virus but yes it's probably a warning shot before the true pandemic if we don't change our ways.
We're destroying the oceans, rainforests, natural habitats and producing mega amounts of greenhouse gases. It's quite an achievement what humanity is collectively doing to the world.
We need to rapidly put it right.
You can start by going vegan Lucan  |  |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:52 - Jan 29 with 1924 views | lowhouseblue |
yeah, but then collectively we all lose our immunity over a couple of years and when the influenza does come back it wipe's us out 1918 style. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:52 - Jan 29 with 1921 views | jeera |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:48 - Jan 29 by J2BLUE |
I think we'll beat this virus but yes it's probably a warning shot before the true pandemic if we don't change our ways.
We're destroying the oceans, rainforests, natural habitats and producing mega amounts of greenhouse gases. It's quite an achievement what humanity is collectively doing to the world.
We need to rapidly put it right.
You can start by going vegan Lucan |
Or on his next visit to China take some Western 'Chinese' food along to convince them that, although not as authentic, sticky spare ribs are much nicer than brains and intestines or whatever some of that stuff is they seem to like.
Maybe Lucan could even open a takeaway in Wuhan as an inside job effort.
With chips and curry sauce on the menu. |  |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:53 - Jan 29 with 1916 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:30 - Jan 29 by gordon |
Yes, we're not going to eradicate influenza. |
But we may well have knocked it back in a way which means it will take it years to reach the same distribution amongst the human population. And with continued emphasis on hygiene, it being socially normalised to isolate when symptomatic, and more home working, this suppression of the influenza virus may see it not recover to similar levels of prevalence in decades. | | | |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:54 - Jan 29 with 1912 views | Guthrum |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:42 - Jan 29 by Lord_Lucan |
I was listening to the radio today as I was in the middle of a bloody mind sapping 5 hour drive and Mr Whitty was saying some stuff. Basically he said thus - if this pandemic had happened 10 years ago then there would actually be no way that we could have developed a vaccine. Basically we would all be in a bit of a pickle.
Thing is - makes me wonder a bit. What have we had, 100k deaths? Most of those people (the absolute majority by a mile) have been people who were on their way out. If you really took a step back this pandemic is just a warning as it's not that severe. If we had 5 million deaths then it's panic stations Arizona - but it's not. However - I do have a feeling that the virus is going to beat the vaccine, whether we can tweek it I don't know but I really believe that we are still in very early stages of this sh1t.
I think Callis had a very valid point some time back, the way we are destroying our planet is exactly why this stuff is happening and unless we change our ways we are gonna feel the repercussions.
Hopefully man will find the answer before it's too late, as I think it will do with climate change but - hold on to your seatbelts baby. |
Thing is, the vaccine is not conscious of what's going on, in a position to actively beat the vaccine. Any mutations making it more resistant will only happen by random chance. And the more people get vaccinated, the fewer times it gets to roll the dice.
It isn't like the diseases which have become more resistant to treatments (particularly antibiotics). They are already in the system, thus more hardy versions survive the experience and are passed on. With a vaccinated person, the virus doesn't get that foothold, so the resistance is not gained. |  |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:57 - Jan 29 with 1890 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:52 - Jan 29 by lowhouseblue |
yeah, but then collectively we all lose our immunity over a couple of years and when the influenza does come back it wipe's us out 1918 style. |
That's also a possible outcome. But not guaranteed. More likely that a much less virulent strain will prevail, and those with severe symptoms will see a rapid response from Governments and a general populace much better informed in how to protect themselves.
But the real answer lies in much, much less air travel. | | | |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 20:00 - Jan 29 with 1863 views | jeera |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:53 - Jan 29 by ArnoldMoorhen |
But we may well have knocked it back in a way which means it will take it years to reach the same distribution amongst the human population. And with continued emphasis on hygiene, it being socially normalised to isolate when symptomatic, and more home working, this suppression of the influenza virus may see it not recover to similar levels of prevalence in decades. |
Will there then be people going about saying flu isn't real and is just a hoax?
Maybe Trump can reemerge with his own YouTube channel to convince Americans the cure is to inject liquid paracetamol into their eyeballs.
I wonder how this decrease in flu has affected the number of strains. Even if it cannot be eradicated is it possible that a few of the existing strains may struggle to continue.
Edit: I see you've mentioned that already. [Post edited 29 Jan 2021 20:01]
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 20:03 - Jan 29 with 1840 views | Illinoisblue |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:42 - Jan 29 by Lord_Lucan |
I was listening to the radio today as I was in the middle of a bloody mind sapping 5 hour drive and Mr Whitty was saying some stuff. Basically he said thus - if this pandemic had happened 10 years ago then there would actually be no way that we could have developed a vaccine. Basically we would all be in a bit of a pickle.
Thing is - makes me wonder a bit. What have we had, 100k deaths? Most of those people (the absolute majority by a mile) have been people who were on their way out. If you really took a step back this pandemic is just a warning as it's not that severe. If we had 5 million deaths then it's panic stations Arizona - but it's not. However - I do have a feeling that the virus is going to beat the vaccine, whether we can tweek it I don't know but I really believe that we are still in very early stages of this sh1t.
I think Callis had a very valid point some time back, the way we are destroying our planet is exactly why this stuff is happening and unless we change our ways we are gonna feel the repercussions.
Hopefully man will find the answer before it's too late, as I think it will do with climate change but - hold on to your seatbelts baby. |
I’m intrigued by his claim about 10 years we couldn’t have made a vaccine. Did he elaborate why on what tech or logistical breakthroughs have happened in the last decade to make it so? |  |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 20:07 - Jan 29 with 1826 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:54 - Jan 29 by Guthrum |
Thing is, the vaccine is not conscious of what's going on, in a position to actively beat the vaccine. Any mutations making it more resistant will only happen by random chance. And the more people get vaccinated, the fewer times it gets to roll the dice.
It isn't like the diseases which have become more resistant to treatments (particularly antibiotics). They are already in the system, thus more hardy versions survive the experience and are passed on. With a vaccinated person, the virus doesn't get that foothold, so the resistance is not gained. |
Yes I appreciate this and once more you demonstrate that you shouldn't be a painter and decorator.
I am assuming you mean that the VIRUS is not conscious. I also agree that one the vaccine takes hold then the virus will be on shaky ground but here's the thing - if we have found 3 or 4 mutations then I bet there are 10, most of which we are obviously unaware of.
This is not going to be a walk in the park. | |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 20:10 - Jan 29 with 1802 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 20:03 - Jan 29 by Illinoisblue |
I’m intrigued by his claim about 10 years we couldn’t have made a vaccine. Did he elaborate why on what tech or logistical breakthroughs have happened in the last decade to make it so? |
He basically said that we didn't have the wherewith-all and he was quite adamant on this. I get the feeling that very recently (possibly just before Corona 19) they have cracked some kind of code.
This is just a guess, I don't proclaim to have the foggiest. | |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 20:32 - Jan 29 with 1740 views | gordon |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:53 - Jan 29 by ArnoldMoorhen |
But we may well have knocked it back in a way which means it will take it years to reach the same distribution amongst the human population. And with continued emphasis on hygiene, it being socially normalised to isolate when symptomatic, and more home working, this suppression of the influenza virus may see it not recover to similar levels of prevalence in decades. |
No, we'll have much lower levels of resistance due to 2 or 3 years of lower prevalence, and then the virus will bounce back quickly. | | | |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 21:02 - Jan 29 with 1620 views | Blue_Heath |
Corona virus is the new flu and more people will die from it each year even with a vaccine. It's hear to stay and life expectancy in years to come will fall considerably. | | | |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 21:22 - Jan 29 with 1584 views | Steve_M |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 20:03 - Jan 29 by Illinoisblue |
I’m intrigued by his claim about 10 years we couldn’t have made a vaccine. Did he elaborate why on what tech or logistical breakthroughs have happened in the last decade to make it so? |
It’s because the vaccines are mRNA ones that target the spike protein in the coronavirus (the one that binds to healthy cells) rather than using a deactivated virus like a traditional vaccine.
I think that’s broadly right anyway. The technology is different and hopefully more effective. |  |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 22:57 - Jan 29 with 1482 views | Guthrum |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 20:07 - Jan 29 by Lord_Lucan |
Yes I appreciate this and once more you demonstrate that you shouldn't be a painter and decorator.
I am assuming you mean that the VIRUS is not conscious. I also agree that one the vaccine takes hold then the virus will be on shaky ground but here's the thing - if we have found 3 or 4 mutations then I bet there are 10, most of which we are obviously unaware of.
This is not going to be a walk in the park. |
There are about 30,000 base pairs in Covid 19's RNA strand. Only a few short sequences affect how infectious, unpleasant and/or lethal it is. All the rest are either irrelevant* (most of them) or actually harmful to the virus itself.
Given mutations are virtually random (nothing more than copying errors), there's quite a small chance of hitting the bullseye and making it nastier than it already is.
Mutations happen every time it is passed on, so there are thousands of different variants around (technically, to qualify as a new "strain" there has to be significant differences, more than just a mutation or two - but the terminology is loosely used). But the vast majority are no more harmful than the "basic" disease. And they are not going to be more vaccine resistant, either**.
Happen to have a friend whose worked on some of this stuff, not my own research.
* The equivalent to having different coloured hair or eyes, rather than an extra arm.
** Tho some of the vaccines work in different ways (e.g. affecting how the viral "spores" attach to human cells), making them perhaps more susceptible to outflanking. | |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 22:58 - Jan 29 with 1467 views | Guthrum |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 20:07 - Jan 29 by Lord_Lucan |
Yes I appreciate this and once more you demonstrate that you shouldn't be a painter and decorator.
I am assuming you mean that the VIRUS is not conscious. I also agree that one the vaccine takes hold then the virus will be on shaky ground but here's the thing - if we have found 3 or 4 mutations then I bet there are 10, most of which we are obviously unaware of.
This is not going to be a walk in the park. |
And yes, I did mean virus not vaccine. | |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 23:05 - Jan 29 with 1454 views | Guthrum |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 20:10 - Jan 29 by Lord_Lucan |
He basically said that we didn't have the wherewith-all and he was quite adamant on this. I get the feeling that very recently (possibly just before Corona 19) they have cracked some kind of code.
This is just a guess, I don't proclaim to have the foggiest. |
Code cracking is right: One of the things they have now, but which was in its infancy a decade ago is genome (DNA/RNA) sequencing. Nowadays they can do it pretty much in real time, which gives a lot more information about the virus - and any new versions which appear. Also some of the gene editing tools we have nowadays are extremely effective. | |
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| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 23:07 - Jan 29 with 1446 views | Guthrum |
| Some very, very, very, very, very good news on 19:57 - Jan 29 by ArnoldMoorhen |
That's also a possible outcome. But not guaranteed. More likely that a much less virulent strain will prevail, and those with severe symptoms will see a rapid response from Governments and a general populace much better informed in how to protect themselves.
But the real answer lies in much, much less air travel. |
Covid primarily spread by air.
Mind you, the Black Death travelled on cargo ships. It was slower, but just as effective. | |
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