| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? 18:20 - Dec 8 with 3157 views | Dubtractor |
We're considering a move, and obviously house prices have gone crackers in the last 18 months, so if a likely depression of prices is likely we'd rather hold off for now.
Or conversely if prices are likely to still keep rising we prob ought to get on with it!
I know that the stamp duty 'holiday' will have played a part in the higher prices, but I'm not going to pretend to understand the overall impact. |  |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:25 - Dec 8 with 2355 views | Lord_Lucan |
Hey Dubs.
Let’s get this straight. You are thinking of basing a lifetime decision on comments and advice from TW4TD? |  |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:26 - Dec 8 with 2340 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Yes. They are high. The stamp duty break ended and they remain high.
What will cause them to come down and when is another question. Long term property always appreciates but there are spells where it does drop for a time.
Sorry that doesn't answer your question but I suspect no one can with any great certainty. |  |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:27 - Dec 8 with 2334 views | Dubtractor |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:25 - Dec 8 by Lord_Lucan |
Hey Dubs.
Let’s get this straight. You are thinking of basing a lifetime decision on comments and advice from TW4TD? |
Oh christ no, just adding to my existing knowledge, to help inform a decision.
And amongst the large collection of knob ends (me included) on here, there is always the occasional useful nugget of info. | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:30 - Dec 8 with 2298 views | Illinoisblue |
A few footballing scousers might be looking to offload their Suffolk homes |  |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:33 - Dec 8 with 2262 views | clive_baker |
Going to be a tough one for anyone to answer. I would say if anyone is waiting for house prices to drop before buying, there's a risk they might be waiting a long time. The general trend of course is only in one direction over a period of time, so there's inherantly more risk in that.
If you can, I think it's always prudent to buy somewhere as 'future proofed' as possible, somewhere you'll be happy to sit in in the event of a period of deflation, so you would only have to hold any losses on paper, and not realise them in the event of needing to sell. |  |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:36 - Dec 8 with 2239 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:30 - Dec 8 by Illinoisblue |
A few footballing scousers might be looking to offload their Suffolk homes |
There will be an equal number of new footballing notaries replacing their money. | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:40 - Dec 8 with 2230 views | belgablue |
A non expert but I would say that over the last 30 years house prices have risen consistently, with the blip in 2008. Governments here and abroad have shown in that time that they will happily prop up the housing market with support schemes, and for the last decade, incredibly low interest rates. In my view if prices drop too far it becomes electorally a problem - therefore you could expect government intervention. So in my view, maybe they will drop a bit, but I don’t think policy makers / BoE would let things go too far |  |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:42 - Dec 8 with 2203 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:27 - Dec 8 by Dubtractor |
Oh christ no, just adding to my existing knowledge, to help inform a decision.
And amongst the large collection of knob ends (me included) on here, there is always the occasional useful nugget of info. |
Ok.
Well this knob says - buy. | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:43 - Dec 8 with 2198 views | bluefunk |
Accepting Lucans comment, house prices, like any other are a function of supply and demand, there’s not much supply, and demand is high. I have 2 estate agent contacts who tell me that houses that they sell just don’t reach the open market, they are snapped up by buyers who they have waiting.
That doesn’t look like changing and while there’s new builds available they are often overpriced to take account of the incentives around.
Hope that helps (my business is loosely related to the mortgage market) [Post edited 8 Dec 2021 18:44]
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:56 - Dec 8 with 2094 views | gordon |
I would say that if you're looking to buy in a market where there's 5-10 buyers going for each house, you're going to be e.g. paying 20% more than if there's just a few or you're the only person offering - so I'd talk to estate agents first and get a sense of how crazy it is where you're looking - markets can be completely different in two areas really near to each other.
But basically if you don't need to move, then there's no point getting into it a crazy bidding war - things could calm down a fair bit next year. |  | | |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:57 - Dec 8 with 2082 views | chicoazul |
House prices will not come down, house prices are now effectively an insurance policy against getting old and sick. They are how we as a society pay for social care. Timing the market is impossible and has been for years. Covid and 2008 have not affected house prices so nothing ever will short of all out war in Europe. |  |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:59 - Dec 8 with 2061 views | azuremerlangus |
Not sure about house but pork belly prices have been dropping all morning - I would buy when they reach 64… |  |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:00 - Dec 8 with 2046 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:40 - Dec 8 by belgablue |
A non expert but I would say that over the last 30 years house prices have risen consistently, with the blip in 2008. Governments here and abroad have shown in that time that they will happily prop up the housing market with support schemes, and for the last decade, incredibly low interest rates. In my view if prices drop too far it becomes electorally a problem - therefore you could expect government intervention. So in my view, maybe they will drop a bit, but I don’t think policy makers / BoE would let things go too far |
Unless, of course, you had a Government that was not made up of landlords and in the pay of landowners.
It is dangerous to always expect things to play out exactly how they always have done before. | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:01 - Dec 8 with 2039 views | giant_stow |
Sorry if this is an obvious comment, but have you checked the various indices like Rightmove's?
I had a very quick peep the other day and it looked like prices are levelling off. Mind you, that was a London centric view.
Weirdly though against that, my mate got his place valued the other day and the Estate agent told him it was back to Open Days and multiple offers, so totally contradicting myself in one post - well played me! |  |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:01 - Dec 8 with 2037 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:59 - Dec 8 by azuremerlangus |
Not sure about house but pork belly prices have been dropping all morning - I would buy when they reach 64… |
What about orange juice? | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:03 - Dec 8 with 2030 views | pennblue |
Interest rates went up to 15% in the 1990's:
https://www.allagents.co.uk/house-prices-adjusted/
So the only question mark right now is how high will inflation go, and how long will it remain high. That will have most bearing on prices. If interest rates go up high, lots of people won't be able to pay their mortgages. Especially as a lot of people would be on very low rates right now, even relatively small movements of 1-2% can have a major effect on peoples ability to pay.
The Bank of England are well aware of this though of course, and with a fragile economy any decision on rates will take this into consideration.
So, in a nutshell, any such purchase should be a long term decision, and therefore, unless you try and predict specifically when the prices bottom out (which is tricky to do of course), then you probably better off just going for it.
I would probably fix your rate for 5 years so you cover yourself if there are short term fluctuations in interest rates. You might pay a bit more, but you can sleep at night that you know what your mortgage payment will be. Then, in 3.5 / 4 years time, if rates have risen, then at least you have that final year (5) of your mortgage to prepare for any potential uplift and can plan accordingly. |  |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:05 - Dec 8 with 2019 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 18:43 - Dec 8 by bluefunk |
Accepting Lucans comment, house prices, like any other are a function of supply and demand, there’s not much supply, and demand is high. I have 2 estate agent contacts who tell me that houses that they sell just don’t reach the open market, they are snapped up by buyers who they have waiting.
That doesn’t look like changing and while there’s new builds available they are often overpriced to take account of the incentives around.
Hope that helps (my business is loosely related to the mortgage market) [Post edited 8 Dec 2021 18:44]
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Hey Funky.
Seems at the moment houses are being offered as “Offers in excess of xxxx” and then it’s a bloodbath with prices ending up over 10% above the guide. | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:14 - Dec 8 with 1954 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:03 - Dec 8 by pennblue |
Interest rates went up to 15% in the 1990's:
https://www.allagents.co.uk/house-prices-adjusted/
So the only question mark right now is how high will inflation go, and how long will it remain high. That will have most bearing on prices. If interest rates go up high, lots of people won't be able to pay their mortgages. Especially as a lot of people would be on very low rates right now, even relatively small movements of 1-2% can have a major effect on peoples ability to pay.
The Bank of England are well aware of this though of course, and with a fragile economy any decision on rates will take this into consideration.
So, in a nutshell, any such purchase should be a long term decision, and therefore, unless you try and predict specifically when the prices bottom out (which is tricky to do of course), then you probably better off just going for it.
I would probably fix your rate for 5 years so you cover yourself if there are short term fluctuations in interest rates. You might pay a bit more, but you can sleep at night that you know what your mortgage payment will be. Then, in 3.5 / 4 years time, if rates have risen, then at least you have that final year (5) of your mortgage to prepare for any potential uplift and can plan accordingly. |
From memory they went up to 15% for about a day, wasn’t it all about the ERM black Monday - or something like that.
Daughter Lucan is just moving and has obviously upped her borrowing, I have mentioned to her that the interest rates are so low and to be careful but when you think about it - if rates went back to what they historically were averaged out at then you would have maybe half a million people going bankrupt overnight. Maybe we are in the new normal with interest rates. | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:15 - Dec 8 with 1943 views | giant_stow |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:05 - Dec 8 by Lord_Lucan |
Hey Funky.
Seems at the moment houses are being offered as “Offers in excess of xxxx” and then it’s a bloodbath with prices ending up over 10% above the guide. |
That's nothing - I paid 20% over asking for my place 5 or 6 years back. Got outbid on another before that, despite offering 25% over. | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:22 - Dec 8 with 1906 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:15 - Dec 8 by giant_stow |
That's nothing - I paid 20% over asking for my place 5 or 6 years back. Got outbid on another before that, despite offering 25% over. |
Yeah but you live in a caravan. | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:23 - Dec 8 with 1902 views | chicoazul |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:14 - Dec 8 by Lord_Lucan |
From memory they went up to 15% for about a day, wasn’t it all about the ERM black Monday - or something like that.
Daughter Lucan is just moving and has obviously upped her borrowing, I have mentioned to her that the interest rates are so low and to be careful but when you think about it - if rates went back to what they historically were averaged out at then you would have maybe half a million people going bankrupt overnight. Maybe we are in the new normal with interest rates. |
Interest rates are as low as they are because the BoE don’t want you to save, they want you to spend and speculate. This is because our economy is entirely reliant on consumption. Any rise in interest rates will be informed by inflation and will be small. Mortgage rates are so low at the moment that one could look at this moment as a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy a great home.
I’m not a financial advisor. I am an anon idiot on a message board. Seek professional advice before buying. | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:28 - Dec 8 with 1872 views | giant_stow |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:22 - Dec 8 by Lord_Lucan |
Yeah but you live in a caravan. |
Its a luxury caravan though, in fairness. | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:36 - Dec 8 with 1844 views | Dubtractor |
Cheers for all the responses - some useful stuff and some confirming that what I thought is prob about right.
Ulla's point about prices levelling off is something that I'd noticed, and part of the reason for my question in the first place. I'm also acutely aware of the current crazy inflation levels through my job, coupled with the interest rate being on the floor for years now. All of these play a part in my nervousness - I'm naturally conservative (with a small c!) on anything that looks like a significant financial risk, much to Mrs Dub's frustration at times as it takes me an age to make decisions! | |
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| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:59 - Dec 8 with 1796 views | bluefunk |
| Anyone on here got any inside knowledge on house prices? on 19:05 - Dec 8 by Lord_Lucan |
Hey Funky.
Seems at the moment houses are being offered as “Offers in excess of xxxx” and then it’s a bloodbath with prices ending up over 10% above the guide. |
Evening Lucan
That’s definitely the case in Mid and South Essex ATM, my daughter had to go above the asking price on a house that unexpectedly came back on the market, house appeared one day, the next they had 3 other offers, luckily hers was top, about 5% above asking. She can now move out!! | | | |
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