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Whatever happens in Ukraine, China and Iran are closely monitoring. Noticed China after Taiwan and Iran considering other steps. Its going to be a game changer one way or another.
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World order changing....... on 15:56 - Feb 15 with 1120 views
World order changing....... on 13:37 - Feb 15 by bazza
From annexing crimea to building a bridge which is the longest in Europe in 4 years…, takes longer than that to get planning on anything bigger than 3m3 in you back garden in this country. There’s a really good video on YouTube of them building it. Putin aside, those Russians can build stuff .
They have their pirate base ready for when the traffic gets heavy on the Northern Sea Route:
Nothing more than another bout of sabre rattling. Goes on all the time to a more, or less degree. At this time it suits both sides to play up the other side as being the 'baddie'. Distracts from problems at home.
The Russkies naturally feel aggrieved. A few decades back their 'border' was East Germany, now the west is on the borders with Russia itself, more so if Ukraine joins Nato.
Crimea is 60% Russian and 25 % Ukraine - probably higher and lower respectively now. They were welcomed.
As Palmerston said in the mid 19th century, Britain does not have friends, it has interests, (as with other countries I should imagine). These interests change, daily, monthly, yearly. It is not a new world order, just politics, as ever.
World order changing....... on 13:32 - Feb 15 by Guthrum
Cyber is part of military nowadays (as things like radio and radar jamming were before). The problem there is that buildup is a lot harder to observe and can wait quietly in place for years, ready to activate.
I suspect strongly that defences will have been beefed up in that sector, too. Just not as obviously as planeloads of anti-tank missiles.
World order changing....... on 16:33 - Feb 15 by HARRY10
Nothing more than another bout of sabre rattling. Goes on all the time to a more, or less degree. At this time it suits both sides to play up the other side as being the 'baddie'. Distracts from problems at home.
The Russkies naturally feel aggrieved. A few decades back their 'border' was East Germany, now the west is on the borders with Russia itself, more so if Ukraine joins Nato.
Crimea is 60% Russian and 25 % Ukraine - probably higher and lower respectively now. They were welcomed.
As Palmerston said in the mid 19th century, Britain does not have friends, it has interests, (as with other countries I should imagine). These interests change, daily, monthly, yearly. It is not a new world order, just politics, as ever.
[Redacted]
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World order changing....... on 19:04 - Feb 15 with 1012 views
World order changing....... on 09:29 - Feb 15 by Guthrum
Taiwan is a different scenario. There are specific and long-standing pledges by the US to defend the island. Moreover, that region (particularly the South China Sea) is a core area for Washington's current foreign policy. None of that is the case with Ukraine.
Beijing would be extremely foolish to think a determination not to commit military forces in the Ukraine situation implies the same for Taiwan.
An inherent weakness (if you want to call it that) of modern democracies when facing authoritarian regimes is that the former will usually go to great lengths to avoid war. Their leaders are regularly accountable to the citizenry, whose sons and daughters will die in the fighting. They also have to carry the majority of the political body with them. Whereas the authoritarian ruler makes the decision themselves, without fear of electoral consequences.
That is perceived as weakness by the authoritarian and leads them into thinking they can push things and the democracies (particularly where they are not unified) will always back down.
[Post edited 15 Feb 2022 9:33]
That's interesting and I know you are the authority on here for history, but didn't the Falklands conflict give Thatcher an election victory when she was otherwise trailing? Was that due to the lack of loss of British life involved (if 255 deaths can be described as that)? I wonder what sort of likely losses would be anticipated in conflict in Ukraine.
Ah yes, I see. Separate enclaves of Russkies., I suppose.
What you do not grasp is that Russian speaking dos not equate to being Russian. Before those countries independent Russian was the official language. While most youngsters now speak English, the older generation still speak what they were taught.
Russia will seek to occupy (as does the 'west') if there is a strategic reason - not some guff about supposed s'stateless' Russians.
Cyber attacks are not done for fun. They are part of a consistent demonstration of what can be done.
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World order changing....... on 20:24 - Feb 15 with 914 views
World order changing....... on 20:23 - Feb 15 by HARRY10
Ah yes, I see. Separate enclaves of Russkies., I suppose.
What you do not grasp is that Russian speaking dos not equate to being Russian. Before those countries independent Russian was the official language. While most youngsters now speak English, the older generation still speak what they were taught.
Russia will seek to occupy (as does the 'west') if there is a strategic reason - not some guff about supposed s'stateless' Russians.
Cyber attacks are not done for fun. They are part of a consistent demonstration of what can be done.
[Redacted]
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World order changing....... on 20:34 - Feb 15 with 902 views
World order changing....... on 20:23 - Feb 15 by HARRY10
Ah yes, I see. Separate enclaves of Russkies., I suppose.
What you do not grasp is that Russian speaking dos not equate to being Russian. Before those countries independent Russian was the official language. While most youngsters now speak English, the older generation still speak what they were taught.
Russia will seek to occupy (as does the 'west') if there is a strategic reason - not some guff about supposed s'stateless' Russians.
Cyber attacks are not done for fun. They are part of a consistent demonstration of what can be done.
I was in Daugavpils a couple of years ago as a guest of a friend and his family
They are actually ethnic Poles, but are fully integrated into the local Russian community in the countryside near the city
The native Latvians seemed to treat them very badly, always seemed boorish and rude...so my friend always used to talk to them in Russian which probably didn't help the situation
I got the impression that there was a lot of tension between the two communities
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World order changing....... on 20:38 - Feb 15 with 891 views
World order changing....... on 19:51 - Feb 15 by Nthsuffolkblue
That's interesting and I know you are the authority on here for history, but didn't the Falklands conflict give Thatcher an election victory when she was otherwise trailing? Was that due to the lack of loss of British life involved (if 255 deaths can be described as that)? I wonder what sort of likely losses would be anticipated in conflict in Ukraine.
The Falklands Conflict was one factor in the 1983 election, but so were an improving economy, Labour moving to the left* and the SDP splitting off then going into alliance with the Liberals.
The speed and completeness of victory in the Falklands to some extent masked the casualty toll for the public, as did the "justness" of the cause. Many of the bad things (e.g. PTSD in those who had fought) did not come out until some time later.
A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a much bigger conflict, hundreds of thousands engaged. Casualties could easily run into the tens of thousands estimated by sources being mentioned in the press. The Russian military is considerably stronger and better equipped (of the forces deployed, mostly better trained, too) than the Ukraine's, but there would still be heavy fighting. That's without considering the bombardment of cities like Kiev and Kharkov.
* Against the mood of much of the country. Their manifesto was described by a Labour MP as 'the longest suicide note in history'.
World order changing....... on 20:34 - Feb 15 by EdwardStone
I was in Daugavpils a couple of years ago as a guest of a friend and his family
They are actually ethnic Poles, but are fully integrated into the local Russian community in the countryside near the city
The native Latvians seemed to treat them very badly, always seemed boorish and rude...so my friend always used to talk to them in Russian which probably didn't help the situation
I got the impression that there was a lot of tension between the two communities
[Redacted]
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World order changing....... on 20:45 - Feb 15 with 863 views
World order changing....... on 20:38 - Feb 15 by Guthrum
The Falklands Conflict was one factor in the 1983 election, but so were an improving economy, Labour moving to the left* and the SDP splitting off then going into alliance with the Liberals.
The speed and completeness of victory in the Falklands to some extent masked the casualty toll for the public, as did the "justness" of the cause. Many of the bad things (e.g. PTSD in those who had fought) did not come out until some time later.
A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a much bigger conflict, hundreds of thousands engaged. Casualties could easily run into the tens of thousands estimated by sources being mentioned in the press. The Russian military is considerably stronger and better equipped (of the forces deployed, mostly better trained, too) than the Ukraine's, but there would still be heavy fighting. That's without considering the bombardment of cities like Kiev and Kharkov.
* Against the mood of much of the country. Their manifesto was described by a Labour MP as 'the longest suicide note in history'.
Makes sense, thanks.
I was surprised at the death toll when I Googled it just now. It didn't feel like it was anything like that high.
Interesting about the Labour moving left and the impact of the SDP/Liberals as well.
I saw that. However, it seems to mostly be public-facing parts of the sites damaged. So could be script-kiddies (albeit possibly Russian ones) causing some trouble rather than a full-on military/intel-scale attack.
Plus the latter would target things like power supplies and communications, not a handful of web pages.
World order changing....... on 20:45 - Feb 15 by Nthsuffolkblue
Makes sense, thanks.
I was surprised at the death toll when I Googled it just now. It didn't feel like it was anything like that high.
Interesting about the Labour moving left and the impact of the SDP/Liberals as well.
Tony Benn, mostly. Michael Foot was a very clever man, but was more sympathetic to the Bennite agenda and couldn't stop the right wing of the party (Shirley Williams, David Owen et al) breaking away. Which then split the centre-and-left vote, thus, due to the vagaries of the electoral system, robbing both the Alliance of the seats its share of the voter justified and Labour of any chance of victory.
Foot was also mercilessly pilloried in the press - largely for things which were calumnies (e.g. the infamous "donkey jacket" incident).
World order changing....... on 21:24 - Feb 15 by Guthrum
Tony Benn, mostly. Michael Foot was a very clever man, but was more sympathetic to the Bennite agenda and couldn't stop the right wing of the party (Shirley Williams, David Owen et al) breaking away. Which then split the centre-and-left vote, thus, due to the vagaries of the electoral system, robbing both the Alliance of the seats its share of the voter justified and Labour of any chance of victory.
Foot was also mercilessly pilloried in the press - largely for things which were calumnies (e.g. the infamous "donkey jacket" incident).
I shall make the effort to visit next time I am there....
I found Daugavpils a very interesting place because of the under-population. We are used to the stresses and negative impacts of overcrowding here in the South of England, but to see places falling apart because of lack of people was an eye=opener for me
The Mayor in the local village about 20 minutes from City centre would give you a house for free apparently.... literally free. You just had to pledge to live there and pay your Council Tax
He had all sorts available, big houses in the village, rural with land, trendy apartments.... all for zero rent... all stopped empty because the people had drifted off elsewhere
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