| Latest 538 League One Prediction on 18:47 - Apr 1 with 1662 views | Ryorry |
Maybe I don't understand how it works, but they have us as 2nd on 93 pts whilst SW are 3rd on 94 🤔 |  |
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| Latest 538 League One Prediction on 18:57 - Apr 1 with 1608 views | JohnTy |
| Latest 538 League One Prediction on 18:47 - Apr 1 by Ryorry |
Maybe I don't understand how it works, but they have us as 2nd on 93 pts whilst SW are 3rd on 94 🤔 |
They give us 69% chance of getting promoted - 72% for Plymouth, 63% Sheff Wed, 50% Barnsley.
We are currently rated the strongest team in the division, Barnsley second. Seems about right to me. |  | | |
| Latest 538 League One Prediction on 18:58 - Apr 1 with 1608 views | NthQldITFC |
| Latest 538 League One Prediction on 18:47 - Apr 1 by Ryorry |
Maybe I don't understand how it works, but they have us as 2nd on 93 pts whilst SW are 3rd on 94 🤔 |
I think that view is sorted on the rightmost column 'win league one'. |  |
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| Latest 538 League One Prediction on 18:59 - Apr 1 with 1603 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Latest 538 League One Prediction on 18:47 - Apr 1 by Ryorry |
Maybe I don't understand how it works, but they have us as 2nd on 93 pts whilst SW are 3rd on 94 🤔 |
The most likely scenaro is the league points. But probability wise we have more of a chance of finishing first that Sheff Wed.
I assume they'll be doing something different to include play-off chance. But the gist is:
Top 2 probability:
- Plymouth 1st: 40% + 2nd: 27% = Top 2: 67%
- Ipswich 1st: 26% + 2nd: 26% = Top 2: 56%
- Sheff Wed 1st: 23% + 2nd: 28% = Top 2: 55%
But the most likely league positions are:
- Plymouth 1st: 40%
- Sheff Wed 2nd: 28% [Post edited 1 Apr 2023 19:00]
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| Latest 538 League One Prediction on 19:07 - Apr 1 with 1547 views | Ryorry |
| Latest 538 League One Prediction on 18:59 - Apr 1 by Kropotkin123 |
The most likely scenaro is the league points. But probability wise we have more of a chance of finishing first that Sheff Wed.
I assume they'll be doing something different to include play-off chance. But the gist is:
Top 2 probability:
- Plymouth 1st: 40% + 2nd: 27% = Top 2: 67%
- Ipswich 1st: 26% + 2nd: 26% = Top 2: 56%
- Sheff Wed 1st: 23% + 2nd: 28% = Top 2: 55%
But the most likely league positions are:
- Plymouth 1st: 40%
- Sheff Wed 2nd: 28% [Post edited 1 Apr 2023 19:00]
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Ah, ta.
Must say it seems unnecessarily complicated to me, think I'll stick to my instincts! (albeit it is of course interesting, so thanks for the info on the stats). [Post edited 1 Apr 2023 19:09]
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