| 25 wins to go 12:27 - Sep 20 with 3821 views | TMWWNGAS |
Looking back over seasons in the championship and all bar one season 91 points would get you promoted (automatically)
Even though we had the bonkers points last season..
Not that I'm getting carried away or anything, but keep chipping away at the wins and stay up there as long as we can... who knows |  | | |  |
| 25 wins to go on 13:00 - Sep 20 with 3715 views | Asa |
Sunderland took the final playoff place last season with 69 points. They lost 13 games in total. Middlesbrough finished two places above them and lost 15.
We have 18 points from 7 games. If we assume that 69 gets us in the top 6 then we'd need 51 points from 39 games. That's 1.3 points per game.
That means that over the course of the remainder of the season we already would only need the form of Norwich in 13th place in order to make the playoffs if the points tally was the same as last year.
That's 13 points every 10 games. W3, D4, L3 or W4, D1, L5. We can be average or below average and potentially make the top six. This team shows no signs of being average and that's before we assume that come January we will likely improve yet again.
It cannot be overstated how much of an incredible chance we have given ourselves already with that cushion. It's absolutely remarkable really.
In the opening month and a half, we've moved away from any potential relegation fears - not that anyone at ITFC would have had them, moved beyond mid-table aspirations, which would have been a great season really and all of a sudden we are on par with Burnley's start, who ended up romping to promotion.
I can't believe we will keep this up, but we only have to be average from hereonin to be in with a real chance of a promotion push. | | | |
| 25 wins to go on 13:49 - Sep 20 with 3608 views | tractorboy1978 |
| 25 wins to go on 13:00 - Sep 20 by Asa |
Sunderland took the final playoff place last season with 69 points. They lost 13 games in total. Middlesbrough finished two places above them and lost 15.
We have 18 points from 7 games. If we assume that 69 gets us in the top 6 then we'd need 51 points from 39 games. That's 1.3 points per game.
That means that over the course of the remainder of the season we already would only need the form of Norwich in 13th place in order to make the playoffs if the points tally was the same as last year.
That's 13 points every 10 games. W3, D4, L3 or W4, D1, L5. We can be average or below average and potentially make the top six. This team shows no signs of being average and that's before we assume that come January we will likely improve yet again.
It cannot be overstated how much of an incredible chance we have given ourselves already with that cushion. It's absolutely remarkable really.
In the opening month and a half, we've moved away from any potential relegation fears - not that anyone at ITFC would have had them, moved beyond mid-table aspirations, which would have been a great season really and all of a sudden we are on par with Burnley's start, who ended up romping to promotion.
I can't believe we will keep this up, but we only have to be average from hereonin to be in with a real chance of a promotion push. |
Burnley only picked up 12 points from their first 7 games! | | | |
| 25 wins to go on 13:55 - Sep 20 with 3578 views | TMWWNGAS |
| 25 wins to go on 13:00 - Sep 20 by Asa |
Sunderland took the final playoff place last season with 69 points. They lost 13 games in total. Middlesbrough finished two places above them and lost 15.
We have 18 points from 7 games. If we assume that 69 gets us in the top 6 then we'd need 51 points from 39 games. That's 1.3 points per game.
That means that over the course of the remainder of the season we already would only need the form of Norwich in 13th place in order to make the playoffs if the points tally was the same as last year.
That's 13 points every 10 games. W3, D4, L3 or W4, D1, L5. We can be average or below average and potentially make the top six. This team shows no signs of being average and that's before we assume that come January we will likely improve yet again.
It cannot be overstated how much of an incredible chance we have given ourselves already with that cushion. It's absolutely remarkable really.
In the opening month and a half, we've moved away from any potential relegation fears - not that anyone at ITFC would have had them, moved beyond mid-table aspirations, which would have been a great season really and all of a sudden we are on par with Burnley's start, who ended up romping to promotion.
I can't believe we will keep this up, but we only have to be average from hereonin to be in with a real chance of a promotion push. |
Some stats there! Shows how immense this start could prove to be! | | | |
| 25 wins to go on 13:59 - Sep 20 with 3553 views | Asa |
| 25 wins to go on 13:49 - Sep 20 by tractorboy1978 |
Burnley only picked up 12 points from their first 7 games! |
Fair enough! For some reason I had in my head that they flew out of the traps. | | | |
| 25 wins to go on 14:30 - Sep 20 with 3489 views | DanTheMan |
| 25 wins to go on 13:55 - Sep 20 by TMWWNGAS |
Some stats there! Shows how immense this start could prove to be! |
Interesting to look back over the previous few seasons after the first 7ish games.
2022-2023
1st Sheffield -> 2nd
2nd Norwich -> 13th
3rd Burnley -> 1st
4th Watford -> 11th
5th Blackburn -> 7th
6th Reading -> 20th
2021-2022
1st Fulham -> 1st
2nd Bournemouth -> 2nd
3rd West Brom - > 10th
4th Coventry -> 12th
5th Stoke -> 14th
6th Huddersfield -> 3rd
2020-2021
1st Reading -> 7th
2nd Bristol City -> 19th(!)
3rd Watford -> 2nd
4th Bournemouth -> 6th
5th Norwich City -> 1st
6th Millwall -> 11th
Very mixed bag. |  |
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| 25 wins to go on 14:35 - Sep 20 with 3434 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| 25 wins to go on 13:00 - Sep 20 by Asa |
Sunderland took the final playoff place last season with 69 points. They lost 13 games in total. Middlesbrough finished two places above them and lost 15.
We have 18 points from 7 games. If we assume that 69 gets us in the top 6 then we'd need 51 points from 39 games. That's 1.3 points per game.
That means that over the course of the remainder of the season we already would only need the form of Norwich in 13th place in order to make the playoffs if the points tally was the same as last year.
That's 13 points every 10 games. W3, D4, L3 or W4, D1, L5. We can be average or below average and potentially make the top six. This team shows no signs of being average and that's before we assume that come January we will likely improve yet again.
It cannot be overstated how much of an incredible chance we have given ourselves already with that cushion. It's absolutely remarkable really.
In the opening month and a half, we've moved away from any potential relegation fears - not that anyone at ITFC would have had them, moved beyond mid-table aspirations, which would have been a great season really and all of a sudden we are on par with Burnley's start, who ended up romping to promotion.
I can't believe we will keep this up, but we only have to be average from hereonin to be in with a real chance of a promotion push. |
I keep thinking we can't keep this up, and then we go and do it again! |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| 25 wins to go on 14:53 - Sep 20 with 3363 views | bluefunk |
| 25 wins to go on 14:30 - Sep 20 by DanTheMan |
Interesting to look back over the previous few seasons after the first 7ish games.
2022-2023
1st Sheffield -> 2nd
2nd Norwich -> 13th
3rd Burnley -> 1st
4th Watford -> 11th
5th Blackburn -> 7th
6th Reading -> 20th
2021-2022
1st Fulham -> 1st
2nd Bournemouth -> 2nd
3rd West Brom - > 10th
4th Coventry -> 12th
5th Stoke -> 14th
6th Huddersfield -> 3rd
2020-2021
1st Reading -> 7th
2nd Bristol City -> 19th(!)
3rd Watford -> 2nd
4th Bournemouth -> 6th
5th Norwich City -> 1st
6th Millwall -> 11th
Very mixed bag. |
Where did you get those stats Dan, I’d like to look up the points comparison to this year |  | | |
| 25 wins to go on 14:54 - Sep 20 with 3355 views | pennblue |
It still feels to me that we have an absolute tidal wave of support behind the team and club in general. 20 years of pain is quite powerful. I really hope we sell out every single game this season, we can't do much more than that. | |
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| 25 wins to go on 14:54 - Sep 20 with 3355 views | DanTheMan |
| 25 wins to go on 14:53 - Sep 20 by bluefunk |
Where did you get those stats Dan, I’d like to look up the points comparison to this year |
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/
I was using this (assume it's reliable!)
It's a bit fiddly to try and find the time where everyone has played 7 games but doable if not a bit manual. I was hoping to find one that just had a match week selector. [Post edited 20 Sep 2023 14:55]
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| 25 wins to go on 15:04 - Sep 20 with 3290 views | bluefunk |
| 25 wins to go on 14:54 - Sep 20 by DanTheMan |
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/
I was using this (assume it's reliable!)
It's a bit fiddly to try and find the time where everyone has played 7 games but doable if not a bit manual. I was hoping to find one that just had a match week selector. [Post edited 20 Sep 2023 14:55]
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Last year was very interesting as after 8 games Sheff U has 17 points, and of the teams in the top 6 2 ended up in automatic promotion, one got relegated, and the other 3 ended up out of the plays offs. That this is a long season is demonstrated by the eventual top 6 standings after 8 games, Luton in 17th with 9 points, and Middlesbrough on 6 and Coventry on.1 both in the bottom three. | | | |
| 25 wins to go on 15:07 - Sep 20 with 3280 views | ChampionsofInnsbruck |
The Championship always has one team that's usually ahead of everyone else, 7 or 8 playing lottery, a chunk of teams made up of clubs/players with next to no aspirations and 5 absolute turds near the bottom. If you can beat the passengers and the turds, you can usually end up in, or around the Playoffs. |  | | |
| 25 wins to go on 15:45 - Sep 20 with 3146 views | gringoblue |
| 25 wins to go on 14:30 - Sep 20 by DanTheMan |
Interesting to look back over the previous few seasons after the first 7ish games.
2022-2023
1st Sheffield -> 2nd
2nd Norwich -> 13th
3rd Burnley -> 1st
4th Watford -> 11th
5th Blackburn -> 7th
6th Reading -> 20th
2021-2022
1st Fulham -> 1st
2nd Bournemouth -> 2nd
3rd West Brom - > 10th
4th Coventry -> 12th
5th Stoke -> 14th
6th Huddersfield -> 3rd
2020-2021
1st Reading -> 7th
2nd Bristol City -> 19th(!)
3rd Watford -> 2nd
4th Bournemouth -> 6th
5th Norwich City -> 1st
6th Millwall -> 11th
Very mixed bag. |
What you can take from that is, for the past 3 seasons, the two automatic promotion teams have been in the Top 5 after 7 games... |  | | |
| 25 wins to go on 16:13 - Sep 20 with 3049 views | textbackup |
| 25 wins to go on 13:00 - Sep 20 by Asa |
Sunderland took the final playoff place last season with 69 points. They lost 13 games in total. Middlesbrough finished two places above them and lost 15.
We have 18 points from 7 games. If we assume that 69 gets us in the top 6 then we'd need 51 points from 39 games. That's 1.3 points per game.
That means that over the course of the remainder of the season we already would only need the form of Norwich in 13th place in order to make the playoffs if the points tally was the same as last year.
That's 13 points every 10 games. W3, D4, L3 or W4, D1, L5. We can be average or below average and potentially make the top six. This team shows no signs of being average and that's before we assume that come January we will likely improve yet again.
It cannot be overstated how much of an incredible chance we have given ourselves already with that cushion. It's absolutely remarkable really.
In the opening month and a half, we've moved away from any potential relegation fears - not that anyone at ITFC would have had them, moved beyond mid-table aspirations, which would have been a great season really and all of a sudden we are on par with Burnley's start, who ended up romping to promotion.
I can't believe we will keep this up, but we only have to be average from hereonin to be in with a real chance of a promotion push. |
I feel sick reading that
In a good way |  |
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| 25 wins to go on 16:22 - Sep 20 with 3009 views | HighgateBlue |
| 25 wins to go on 13:00 - Sep 20 by Asa |
Sunderland took the final playoff place last season with 69 points. They lost 13 games in total. Middlesbrough finished two places above them and lost 15.
We have 18 points from 7 games. If we assume that 69 gets us in the top 6 then we'd need 51 points from 39 games. That's 1.3 points per game.
That means that over the course of the remainder of the season we already would only need the form of Norwich in 13th place in order to make the playoffs if the points tally was the same as last year.
That's 13 points every 10 games. W3, D4, L3 or W4, D1, L5. We can be average or below average and potentially make the top six. This team shows no signs of being average and that's before we assume that come January we will likely improve yet again.
It cannot be overstated how much of an incredible chance we have given ourselves already with that cushion. It's absolutely remarkable really.
In the opening month and a half, we've moved away from any potential relegation fears - not that anyone at ITFC would have had them, moved beyond mid-table aspirations, which would have been a great season really and all of a sudden we are on par with Burnley's start, who ended up romping to promotion.
I can't believe we will keep this up, but we only have to be average from hereonin to be in with a real chance of a promotion push. |
I quite agree that we have put ourselves in a great position with our start, but it is worth noting that 69 is historically a pretty low number of points to sneak into the playoffs.
Just for a little more nuance in terms of stats, over the last 9 completed seasons, going back to when we finished 6th under Mick, the 6th placed teams have achieved the following numbers of points:
2022/23 69
2021/22 75
2020/21 77
2019/20 70
2018/19 74
2017/18 75
2016/17 80
2015/16 74
2014/15 78
The mean average of that lot is 74.67, and the median is 75.
In 2015/16 we got 69 points and missed out by 5. In 2014/15, Wolves missed out even with 78, and Derby with 77.
It might be argued that the world has changed and that there are now regularly one or two teams at the top taking lots of points off everyone, so we'll see 69 points as being sufficient more regularly. Maybe. I'm not sure the trends clearly bear that out yet though.
Here's the data for year/1st place/2nd place/total of 1st and second place, over the last 9 years:
2022/23 101 91 192
2021/22 90 88 178
2020/21 97 91 188
2019/20 93 83 176
2018/19 94 89 183
2017/18 99 90 189
2016/17 94 93 187
2015/16 93 89 182
2014/15 90 89 179
Last year's figures at present look like an outlier. The mean figure for first place is 94.56. If you remove last year, the mean is 93.75. For second place, the mean is 89.2, without last year it's 89.
Then if you look at the combined points totals of 1st and 2nd, the two lowest totals on the list have occurred in the last 4 years. Or to put it another way, the top two have scored fewer points in the last four years than in the previous four years, so I don't think they're increasingly depressing the totals gained by others.
So I don't yet think there's evidence that the number of points needed for sixth place is the subject of a continuing downward trend. It's true to say that the mean of the last 4 years is 3 points lower than for the previous four years, and nobody has needed 78 points at any time in the last 6 years, but I think the figure just varies naturally. I can't really be bothered to delve back too far, but in 2014 6th place only needed 72, and in 2013 it was 68 - we haven't seen a figure that low in the subsequent 10 years.
75 would have been good enough in 8 out of the last 11 seasons, and the mean average over that time is 73.8. To get to 74 points we'd need 1.44 PPG from here on in. I would suggest we're already overwhelmingly likely to finish in the top 6, and the skinny odds-on prices suggest that the market agrees.
Do with that what y'all will. |  | | |
| 25 wins to go on 16:28 - Sep 20 with 2980 views | _clive_baker_ |
| 25 wins to go on 16:13 - Sep 20 by textbackup |
I feel sick reading that
In a good way |
I've got an erection.
FWIW I don't think 69 points will be enough for top 6, that was something of an anomaly last year and the lowest total in the past decade to finish 6th. In some cases it's as much as 10 points more for 6th place.
75 points is a decent marker. 1.46 ppg from here on in. 57 more points from 39 games.
All too early to be talking about this innit, just got to keep doing what we're doing, and when we hit an inevitable bad patch we need to stick to our principles and trust the process like we did in February. |  | | |
| 25 wins to go on 16:54 - Sep 20 with 2903 views | Exiled2Surrey |
| 25 wins to go on 15:45 - Sep 20 by gringoblue |
What you can take from that is, for the past 3 seasons, the two automatic promotion teams have been in the Top 5 after 7 games... |
That was my take as well - you can't gain automatic promotion from the league in the first 7 games, but you can remove yourself from the conversation - which Southampton and possibly Leeds (depending on results this evening) appear to have done - remarkable really.
Edit: yup, Leeds not getting autos either…. [Post edited 20 Sep 2023 22:27]
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| 25 wins to go on 20:46 - Sep 20 with 2606 views | PhilsAngels |
Another way to look at this if we gain the same number of points over the next 7 games we will be 1 point short of not being relegated, on average. So the next 8 games and we could be sure of staying in the Championship | | | |
| 25 wins to go on 06:33 - Sep 21 with 2377 views | PioneerBlue |
One game at a time. Don’t do this to yourself. | |
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