| Town defence now doing rather well! 11:47 - Dec 6 with 1580 views | jungleboy |
In the last five games the Town defence has only let in one goal in each game. This is a really positive improvement - especially after the West Ham and Brentford games. In particular, Muric has now settled in well.
What we have to do now is build on our solid defence and score a few goals. Maybe Leif can get up the wing a bit more and we should try Johnson on the right wing again (he was good against Spurs).
So it is not all doom and gloom! |  | | |  |
| Town defence now doing rather well! on 12:34 - Dec 6 with 1424 views | Nutkins_Return |
Greaves and O'Shea is the best centre defensive partnership we have had in decades. I think they can become outstanding. We're not far away from a good team. We are 2-3 players away from being a team that would be on double the points. The problem is those game changing 2-3 would probably cost £60-100 mil and I don't think we have that option in Jan. | |
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| Town defence now doing rather well! on 13:00 - Dec 6 with 1346 views | itfc_statman |
This is where statman comes in!
It's important to not just judge the end result but the performance itself and we can use stats to do that. good news is it generally backs up the result.
Over the last 5 games we average a xGA (expected goals against) of 1.44 per game. The 5 games prior to that we averaged 2.58 xGA, which is guaranteed relegation.
Unfortunately we've only created more than our opponents twice, and it was relatively marginal, and that was conversely United and Spurs!
That's why when I've seen people bemoaning our terrible luck, which I've generally agreed with at the time, taking a step back you realise that actually we weren't so unlucky.
Our next problem is our xG created over the last 5 games is just 1.05
Which basically means we can't afford not to take a big chance, the pressure is high on the offensive players and if we concede more than one goal we've probably lost.
I'd still say overall it's positive improvement and going in the right direction assuming that Palace and Forest are blips rather than a sign to come (both those games we created less than 0.6 xG and fully deserved to lose both) | | | |
| Town defence now doing rather well! on 13:52 - Dec 6 with 1229 views | ArnieM |
...which makes me ask the question, why the hell is Szmodics spending so much time kn the bench, given the amount of goals he s owed last season. Yes it was at Championship level, but so were Delaps. SS won't score many goals sat on the bench! goals. |  |
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| Town defence now doing rather well! on 14:04 - Dec 6 with 1193 views | JammyDodgerrr |
| Town defence now doing rather well! on 13:52 - Dec 6 by ArnieM |
...which makes me ask the question, why the hell is Szmodics spending so much time kn the bench, given the amount of goals he s owed last season. Yes it was at Championship level, but so were Delaps. SS won't score many goals sat on the bench! goals. |
You mean the one game in like the last four he's spent on the bench? |  |
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| Town defence now doing rather well! on 14:12 - Dec 6 with 1175 views | victorysquad |
what a very positive, and sensible post. | |
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| Town defence now doing rather well! on 14:13 - Dec 6 with 1165 views | RonFearonsHair |
| Town defence now doing rather well! on 13:00 - Dec 6 by itfc_statman |
This is where statman comes in!
It's important to not just judge the end result but the performance itself and we can use stats to do that. good news is it generally backs up the result.
Over the last 5 games we average a xGA (expected goals against) of 1.44 per game. The 5 games prior to that we averaged 2.58 xGA, which is guaranteed relegation.
Unfortunately we've only created more than our opponents twice, and it was relatively marginal, and that was conversely United and Spurs!
That's why when I've seen people bemoaning our terrible luck, which I've generally agreed with at the time, taking a step back you realise that actually we weren't so unlucky.
Our next problem is our xG created over the last 5 games is just 1.05
Which basically means we can't afford not to take a big chance, the pressure is high on the offensive players and if we concede more than one goal we've probably lost.
I'd still say overall it's positive improvement and going in the right direction assuming that Palace and Forest are blips rather than a sign to come (both those games we created less than 0.6 xG and fully deserved to lose both) |
Can I ask an unrelated question about xG?
When a penalty is saved and the rebound is scored do both chances count towards the xG total? |  | | |
| Town defence now doing rather well! on 14:14 - Dec 6 with 1163 views | Swansea_Blue |
Johnson’s just not right again yet, otherwise I expect we’d have seen a bit more from him. It sounds like he’s very close though based on Phil’s Presser thread. |  |
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| Town defence now doing rather well! on 14:27 - Dec 6 with 1060 views | itfc_statman |
| Town defence now doing rather well! on 14:13 - Dec 6 by RonFearonsHair |
Can I ask an unrelated question about xG?
When a penalty is saved and the rebound is scored do both chances count towards the xG total? |
No, they're not included in most models - that I look at anyway. Oddly it does get included in the more specific Non-Penalty xG figure that some models count.
On another note, our struggles re creating chances is demonstrated quite well in this graphic:
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| Town defence now doing rather well! on 16:04 - Dec 8 with 669 views | itfc_statman |
Again, we unfortunately deserve to lose today on chances created. We've conceded 6 "big chances" in this game and only created 1. It effectively guarantees relegation | | | |
| Town defence now doing rather well! on 16:05 - Dec 8 with 648 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Town defence now doing rather well! on 16:04 - Dec 8 by itfc_statman |
Again, we unfortunately deserve to lose today on chances created. We've conceded 6 "big chances" in this game and only created 1. It effectively guarantees relegation |
We scored two.... | | | |
| Town defence now doing rather well! on 16:13 - Dec 8 with 576 views | itfc_statman |
| Town defence now doing rather well! on 16:05 - Dec 8 by redrickstuhaart |
We scored two.... |
I request you look at the confirmed scoreline... | | | |
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