| Ipswich never stood a chance on 08:27 - Apr 26 with 685 views | Axeldalai_lama |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 21:32 - Apr 25 by ITFCson |
We did stand a chance, in fact we stood a very good chance. We were around evens to get relegated. We had a around 50% chance of staying up. It is only with the benefit of hindsight the truer chance may of actually been less. Anyone who genuinely thought we had zero chance at the start of the season as well as being psychic could of made a fortune.
Southampton were even greater odds to get relegated. It is a lot easier to speak about the chances of things happening after they have actually happened. |
I'd like to see any odds that said we stood a very good chance of staying up, and any that we weren't odds on to be in the bottom 3. At any point. Surely evens were still the shortest, or in the shortest of the 3, to go down. I'm also guessing those 4th shortest odds were probably 2/1 or longer, so twice as long as us. So saying we stood a very good chance is really really stretching it. We were twice as likely, at least, than the next safe team.
Of course we technically stood a chance, but barring them not taking bets on us evens to go down is quite overwhelming favourites in most measures. |  | |  |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 08:46 - Apr 26 with 658 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 21:32 - Apr 25 by ITFCson |
We did stand a chance, in fact we stood a very good chance. We were around evens to get relegated. We had a around 50% chance of staying up. It is only with the benefit of hindsight the truer chance may of actually been less. Anyone who genuinely thought we had zero chance at the start of the season as well as being psychic could of made a fortune.
Southampton were even greater odds to get relegated. It is a lot easier to speak about the chances of things happening after they have actually happened. |
I don't know where you got your figures from but 50% chance of staying up sounds like nonsense. |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
| |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 09:52 - Apr 26 with 592 views | algy |
Good article on the difficulty, virtual impossibility of a promoted club avoiding immediate relegation.
The early paragraphs on the actual game are perceptive too - "you must at least try and do the basics half right...... allow wingers past with embarrassing ease...... blue shirts just watching as if they are standing in the stands...".
As he rightly says "the talent gap to Arsenal cannot be bridged" but have the players, as Johnson said "done the club proud" or are they just going "down with a whimper"?
Somewhere in between, I think. |  |
| Veni Vidi Participatur. Now we can get back to competing. |
| |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 18:21 - Apr 26 with 505 views | ITFCson |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 08:27 - Apr 26 by Axeldalai_lama |
I'd like to see any odds that said we stood a very good chance of staying up, and any that we weren't odds on to be in the bottom 3. At any point. Surely evens were still the shortest, or in the shortest of the 3, to go down. I'm also guessing those 4th shortest odds were probably 2/1 or longer, so twice as long as us. So saying we stood a very good chance is really really stretching it. We were twice as likely, at least, than the next safe team.
Of course we technically stood a chance, but barring them not taking bets on us evens to go down is quite overwhelming favourites in most measures. |
They were the odds as I pointed out. 1.99 in fact to stay up. I have the losing slip to prove it. So its not stretching it, it is a fact we had around 51% chance of staying up. | | | |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 18:23 - Apr 26 with 503 views | ITFCson |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 08:46 - Apr 26 by The_Flashing_Smile |
I don't know where you got your figures from but 50% chance of staying up sounds like nonsense. |
Did you not read my post, I was stating facts. Thousands was traded around evens on us staying up. | | | |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 18:26 - Apr 26 with 494 views | Axeldalai_lama |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 18:21 - Apr 26 by ITFCson |
They were the odds as I pointed out. 1.99 in fact to stay up. I have the losing slip to prove it. So its not stretching it, it is a fact we had around 51% chance of staying up. |
That's not how it works though, Shirley?
If every other team has longer odds to be relegated, or at least bar the other two, then we're still favourites, and if we're evens and Everton or whoever were next closest are 2-1 or 3-1 then they are two or three times more likely to stay up. No? | | | |
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 19:14 - Apr 26 with 466 views | E_I_E_I_E_I_O |
As usual it sounds many people just do not understand odds and probability. Yes we were 3rd favourites to go down but it does not mean we were more than 50%. I also bet on Ipswich to stay up on the exchanges at almost exactly evens. With so much liquidity that is a true gage. As it goes during the entire season we were odds against to go down after the Fulham game and just before they scored their equalizer is the exact point we were the longest odds during the entire season at about 6/4 (2.5) to be relegated.
On the flip side I also bet on Leeds at exactly evens at the exchanges so they were about 50% to get promoted. However with hindsight and the way it's played out it's easy to think there was more chance of Leeds getting promoted than us getting relegated but there was not even if the mind thinks there was. | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Ipswich never stood a chance on 11:39 - Apr 27 with 342 views | MVBlue |
Interesting share that is. And some neutral observation on our lack of competing against Arsenal.
Its an obvious story, and yes he is right we are waiting for a calamity club:
"Effectively, anyone promoted is now left crossing their fingers for a calamity club. That’s not so unusual: Southampton and Leicester themselves count as examples from 2022-23. West Ham and Everton have been basket case clubs for periods of this season. So too have Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.
But the squads of the latter two cost around £1.5bn combined to sign. West Ham spent £120m on new players last summer and more than that in each of the last two seasons. Everton used 11 senior internationals in their last league fixture. These are the weakest other clubs and the gap is still gaping." |  |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
