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As has been apparent for some time, it seems Trump wants to play as little a part as possible in the defence of Ukraine, but he has no objection to the rest of NATO buying weapons from the US to carry on the fight.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:00 - Sep 24 with 3234 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 09:15 - Sep 24 by DJR
As has been apparent for some time, it seems Trump wants to play as little a part as possible in the defence of Ukraine, but he has no objection to the rest of NATO buying weapons from the US to carry on the fight.
Trump just doesn't want the USA to spend any money on Ukraine*, but he's perfectly happy for others to do so - especially if it increases income for American arms manufacturers. Putin and Netanyahu aren't going to drop the Nobel Peace Prize into his lap, so fk 'em. Trump would rather be on the winning side if he can't end the war.
This does put Orban in a rather tricky position, if Trump is going to start pressuring him to give up Russian oil and gas. Hungary is a land-locked country (can't rapidly build LPG terminals like Germany did) and all the pipeline infrastructure comes from the east. With various mountain ranges, there are extremely limited routes to quickly and easily put new supply lines in. It's simply not an option to switch off useage on Trump timelines.
But Orban also relies on conservative US backing to maintain his struggle with the (relatively liberal) EU. Offending Trump would severely damage his position, leaving him entirely at the behest of Putin, who is weaker, has almost no political leverage in Europe and is likely to be more ruthless about demanding stuff in return. Not sure he fancies being Lukashenko.
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:00 - Sep 24 by Guthrum
Trump just doesn't want the USA to spend any money on Ukraine*, but he's perfectly happy for others to do so - especially if it increases income for American arms manufacturers. Putin and Netanyahu aren't going to drop the Nobel Peace Prize into his lap, so fk 'em. Trump would rather be on the winning side if he can't end the war.
This does put Orban in a rather tricky position, if Trump is going to start pressuring him to give up Russian oil and gas. Hungary is a land-locked country (can't rapidly build LPG terminals like Germany did) and all the pipeline infrastructure comes from the east. With various mountain ranges, there are extremely limited routes to quickly and easily put new supply lines in. It's simply not an option to switch off useage on Trump timelines.
But Orban also relies on conservative US backing to maintain his struggle with the (relatively liberal) EU. Offending Trump would severely damage his position, leaving him entirely at the behest of Putin, who is weaker, has almost no political leverage in Europe and is likely to be more ruthless about demanding stuff in return. Not sure he fancies being Lukashenko.
* It's all needed to give tax cuts to the rich.
My off the wall, 50 to 1 shot, early doors prediction is that in two years time the war has n Ukraine ends and almost simultaneously Orban leaves NATO and the EU and falls in fully with Putin's Russia.
Putin has his victory over the West and the Special Military Operation can be quietly forgotten.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:20 - Sep 24 with 3191 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:05 - Sep 24 by ArnoldMoorhen
My off the wall, 50 to 1 shot, early doors prediction is that in two years time the war has n Ukraine ends and almost simultaneously Orban leaves NATO and the EU and falls in fully with Putin's Russia.
Putin has his victory over the West and the Special Military Operation can be quietly forgotten.
Hungary and to a lesser extent Slovakia, are useful thorns in the EU's side for Putin. Orban taking Hungary out of the EU (or being kicked out which feels more plausible) is bad for Russia. During Brexit we saw the impact of a large country leaving the EU, the pain was felt on both sides, but far more so on the UK side in part because of the imbalance of size.
A small country like Hungary would face a far greater turmoil. I doubt Putin wants to be shelling out to help Orban in Hungary to the extent he already helps Lukashenko. Hungary begging on his doorstep outside the EU would be a PR win but a strategic defeat.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:23 - Sep 24 with 3172 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:05 - Sep 24 by ArnoldMoorhen
My off the wall, 50 to 1 shot, early doors prediction is that in two years time the war has n Ukraine ends and almost simultaneously Orban leaves NATO and the EU and falls in fully with Putin's Russia.
Putin has his victory over the West and the Special Military Operation can be quietly forgotten.
Problem being that Budapest and the EU have a mutually dependent relationship. Without funding, trade links and support from the bloc, Hungary's economy is in trouble. In the other direction, the country sits in a vital strategic position, in the heart of the continent and across the River Danube.
Leaving NATO would also be tricky*. There is no direct route for Russia to send help in an emergency. Even if they trust Putin to do so. Serbia on their southern flank is politically volatile, but could one day flip to joining the EU and maybe even NATO, leaving Hungary completely surrounded.
* Austria's position is different, because it was never in. The Swiss have been neutral since the early 19th century.
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:20 - Sep 24 by Kievthegreat
Hungary and to a lesser extent Slovakia, are useful thorns in the EU's side for Putin. Orban taking Hungary out of the EU (or being kicked out which feels more plausible) is bad for Russia. During Brexit we saw the impact of a large country leaving the EU, the pain was felt on both sides, but far more so on the UK side in part because of the imbalance of size.
A small country like Hungary would face a far greater turmoil. I doubt Putin wants to be shelling out to help Orban in Hungary to the extent he already helps Lukashenko. Hungary begging on his doorstep outside the EU would be a PR win but a strategic defeat.
But the war is bleeding Russia dry and there has to be a face-saving way out.
I don't think there is currently a mechanism for the EUs other nations to kick out a member state (which is lunacy in itself) but Orban's constant provocations might lead to more of a push from the Western EU nations.
Withdrawal of budgetary aid?
Hungary is part of the Schengen Area, which makes it a frighteningly easy back door for Russian bad faith actors.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:59 - Sep 24 with 3099 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:00 - Sep 24 by Guthrum
Trump just doesn't want the USA to spend any money on Ukraine*, but he's perfectly happy for others to do so - especially if it increases income for American arms manufacturers. Putin and Netanyahu aren't going to drop the Nobel Peace Prize into his lap, so fk 'em. Trump would rather be on the winning side if he can't end the war.
This does put Orban in a rather tricky position, if Trump is going to start pressuring him to give up Russian oil and gas. Hungary is a land-locked country (can't rapidly build LPG terminals like Germany did) and all the pipeline infrastructure comes from the east. With various mountain ranges, there are extremely limited routes to quickly and easily put new supply lines in. It's simply not an option to switch off useage on Trump timelines.
But Orban also relies on conservative US backing to maintain his struggle with the (relatively liberal) EU. Offending Trump would severely damage his position, leaving him entirely at the behest of Putin, who is weaker, has almost no political leverage in Europe and is likely to be more ruthless about demanding stuff in return. Not sure he fancies being Lukashenko.
* It's all needed to give tax cuts to the rich.
He takes a different line in relation to Israel, but probably what this does show is that Trump et al see US strategic and political interests these days as focused particularly on the Middle East and the western Pacific, especially China.
As regards Orban, I took the view that (without criticising Orban specifically) he knows Orban won't stop importing oil, so effectively this means further US sanctions against Russia are off the table.
[Post edited 24 Sep 2025 11:17]
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 12:46 - Sep 24 with 2850 views
This is the thing about the orange one, his speech at the UN taken at face value actually has compelling moments, and many in the UK of the Farage leaning type will love his messaging of the immigration scourge of Europe for example.
The problem is he doesn’t bring any honesty about the state of the USA which is completely broken. Gun purchasing has gone exponential, mass shootings normalised, toxic division in politics and society, huge and unsustainable wealth divide, major deficit issues (deficit has massively increased since his new term) set to worsen under the big beautiful deal, healthcare collapse, climate change an adaptation issues, huge impact of tariffs on the economy, rise of white christian nationalism (almost state sponsored), major breakdown in department of justice, department of health and FBI… etc etc etc
But the US remains a huge market and attractive to foreign economies, and the tariffs have scared inward investment - one of Trump’s compelling. The Paradigm is the reputational damage to the US as a rule of law based, stable, and fair state is causing some serious shifts in global relationships. Which may have real long term issues, both economically and geopolitically.
But to your point - Trump is renowned for not understanding or wanting to understand complex international issues and conflicts. More concerning is he doesn’t listen to intelligence or expert advice, and also flip flops on his position. His original position on the Israeli state and his appalling position on Gaza, is having long term impacts - his much vaunted Abraham accord in tatters.
Trump doesn’t understand that we buy oil and gas still from Russia because it is an embedded system that would take decades to switch. His flip flopping on Putin has extended the war, and emboldened a clearly dangerous regime - that World Cup photo fawning the other day for someone who is meddling in European security is ridiculous.
If Trump had come in, ramped up sanctions, funded Ukraine minimally, crucially maintained intelligence cover (rather than feckin around) and just ostracised Putin the war would be over.
People need to start seeing through what this style of government leads to, and the longer term issues.
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 13:11 - Sep 24 by GlasgowBlue
Putin is going to regret not taking what was a very favourable deal last month.
To be fair to Putin (!), he couldn't really. Didn't offer him anything he doesn't already have and carried the threat of NATO troops - "peacekeepers " - on even more of Russia's western border. Plus if he believes his army is winning, albeit slowly and bloodily, why stop?
Putin isn't superhuman. He's as capable of misjudging Trump's reaction as anyone else. Being a little too casual with the US President's goodwill can eventually backfire. Especially as Europe has been mounting a charm/military finance counteroffensive.
I was alerted to this by an item on the World Service but it seems Trump's recent meeting with Zelensky was fairly tempestuous.
From the FT
"Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms or be ‘destroyed’ by Russia
US president tossed aside maps of Ukraine front line in volatile White House meeting
Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning that Vladimir Putin had said he would “destroy” Ukraine if it did not agree.
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents descended many times into a “shouting match”, with Trump “cursing all the time”, people familiar with the matter said.
They added that the US president tossed aside maps of the front line in Ukraine, insisted Zelenskyy surrender the entire Donbas region to Putin, and repeatedly echoed talking points the Russian leader had made in their call a day earlier.
Though Trump later endorsed a freeze of the current front lines, the acrimonious meeting appeared to reflect the US president’s shifting position on the war and his willingness to endorse Putin’s maximalist demands."
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 00:02 - Feb 2 with 1029 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 20:58 - Oct 20 by DJR
I was alerted to this by an item on the World Service but it seems Trump's recent meeting with Zelensky was fairly tempestuous.
From the FT
"Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms or be ‘destroyed’ by Russia
US president tossed aside maps of Ukraine front line in volatile White House meeting
Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning that Vladimir Putin had said he would “destroy” Ukraine if it did not agree.
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents descended many times into a “shouting match”, with Trump “cursing all the time”, people familiar with the matter said.
They added that the US president tossed aside maps of the front line in Ukraine, insisted Zelenskyy surrender the entire Donbas region to Putin, and repeatedly echoed talking points the Russian leader had made in their call a day earlier.
Though Trump later endorsed a freeze of the current front lines, the acrimonious meeting appeared to reflect the US president’s shifting position on the war and his willingness to endorse Putin’s maximalist demands."
Record breaking missile bombardment on Ukraine, Russia appear to be ramping up attacks ahead of ‘peace talks’.
Separately last month Ukrainian intelligence claimed the Chinese were providing targets to Russia via their satellites. I wonder if that was discussed by Starmer when he was cosying up to them for a new trade deal. Laughable that people think we should pivot to China and they’d be a reliable partner.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 15:24 - Feb 3 with 704 views
Record breaking missile bombardment on Ukraine, Russia appear to be ramping up attacks ahead of ‘peace talks’.
Separately last month Ukrainian intelligence claimed the Chinese were providing targets to Russia via their satellites. I wonder if that was discussed by Starmer when he was cosying up to them for a new trade deal. Laughable that people think we should pivot to China and they’d be a reliable partner.
And this suggests it's rather vindictive: of course, everything Russia has done is vindictive but hopefully you know what I mean.
Thousands without heating on icy night in Ukraine as Russia attacks before talks
Zelenskyy says Putin ‘taking advantage of the coldest days of winter to terrorise people’, as Kyiv hits lows of -20C
[Post edited 3 Feb 15:24]
A Ukrainian on the World Service said that it is the Soviet-era blocks that are suffering the most from a lack of heating because the plans showing services (including heating} are still in Russian.
More modern blocks are less affected not least because they have heat pumps and solar panels.
[Post edited 4 Feb 21:09]
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 17:30 - Feb 4 with 476 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 15:31 - Feb 4 by DJR
A Ukrainian on the World Service said that it is the Soviet-era blocks that are suffering the most from a lack of heating because the plans showing services (including heating} are still in Russian.
More modern blocks are less affected not least because they have heat pumps and solar panels.
[Post edited 4 Feb 21:09]
If only "Russia" hadn't blown up their own money-making pipeline, providing warm living conditions to millions of people.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 19:28 - Feb 4 with 408 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 17:30 - Feb 4 by Cafe_Newman
If only "Russia" hadn't blown up their own money-making pipeline, providing warm living conditions to millions of people.
Nordstream doesn’t even run through Ukraine. The US and Poland both warned Germany against going ahead with the project, Russia had a history of weaponising energy supplies to its neighbours. Alas the complacent Germans went ahead with the promise of ‘cheap gas’ to power their industry.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 20:50 - Feb 4 with 354 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 19:28 - Feb 4 by SuperKieranMcKenna
Nordstream doesn’t even run through Ukraine. The US and Poland both warned Germany against going ahead with the project, Russia had a history of weaponising energy supplies to its neighbours. Alas the complacent Germans went ahead with the promise of ‘cheap gas’ to power their industry.
Until 2021, Nord Stream 1 was operating at high capacity. As you point out, Germany’s gas grid was largely supplied by cheap Nord Stream gas. Poland actually imported gas from Germany and in turn Poland re‑exported gas to Ukraine following the introduction of reverse-flow systems from April 2014. Therefore, any Polish gas sent to Ukraine between 2014 and 2021 could include Nord Stream gas, because all gas in the EU grid mixes together.
But the problem is not really a question of gas availability, but rather electricity supply to transfer gas to Ukrainian homes and industry.
This thread (and the previous one) has been an almost 4-year-long account of Russia's failed "Special Military Operation" in terms of weaponry shortages, low Russian military personel motivation and supplies, general military incompetence and Ukrainian land gains resulting from "game-changing" military hardware supplied from Ukraine's western allies.
Why then aren't we supporting Ukraine to get their electricity supplies up and running again to prevent these poor people freezing? Who is actually winning this war?
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 21:01 - Feb 4 with 344 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 20:50 - Feb 4 by Cafe_Newman
Until 2021, Nord Stream 1 was operating at high capacity. As you point out, Germany’s gas grid was largely supplied by cheap Nord Stream gas. Poland actually imported gas from Germany and in turn Poland re‑exported gas to Ukraine following the introduction of reverse-flow systems from April 2014. Therefore, any Polish gas sent to Ukraine between 2014 and 2021 could include Nord Stream gas, because all gas in the EU grid mixes together.
But the problem is not really a question of gas availability, but rather electricity supply to transfer gas to Ukrainian homes and industry.
This thread (and the previous one) has been an almost 4-year-long account of Russia's failed "Special Military Operation" in terms of weaponry shortages, low Russian military personel motivation and supplies, general military incompetence and Ukrainian land gains resulting from "game-changing" military hardware supplied from Ukraine's western allies.
Why then aren't we supporting Ukraine to get their electricity supplies up and running again to prevent these poor people freezing? Who is actually winning this war?
It’s not a question of availability of gas/electricity being supplied by Europe, it’s a question of infrastructure. Europe was able to replace a lot of its supplies by shipping in LPG, that’s not an option for Ukraine given Russia control its most important ports. It’s difficult to transport in the necessary quantities overland whilst Russia incessantly targets energy infrastructure with drones and missiles. Currently Ukraine is having to store a lot of it’s gas inventory underground (most of it supplied by Europe) and there is some ability to move it underground too but what good is gas if your power stations are targeted. Russia cannot win the war militarily so they are effectively laying siege to the poor people of Ukraine. It’s leverage ahead of the peace talks.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 21:25 - Feb 4 with 321 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 21:01 - Feb 4 by SuperKieranMcKenna
It’s not a question of availability of gas/electricity being supplied by Europe, it’s a question of infrastructure. Europe was able to replace a lot of its supplies by shipping in LPG, that’s not an option for Ukraine given Russia control its most important ports. It’s difficult to transport in the necessary quantities overland whilst Russia incessantly targets energy infrastructure with drones and missiles. Currently Ukraine is having to store a lot of it’s gas inventory underground (most of it supplied by Europe) and there is some ability to move it underground too but what good is gas if your power stations are targeted. Russia cannot win the war militarily so they are effectively laying siege to the poor people of Ukraine. It’s leverage ahead of the peace talks.
You say "Russia cannot win the war militarily" but neither, it seems can Ukraine with all its Western support, superior weapons and military in the face of Russia's strategic incompetence and ammunition and military personnel shortages. According to this thread, Russia has been losing this week since the second month of this 4-year conflict.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 22:09 - Feb 4 with 277 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 21:25 - Feb 4 by Cafe_Newman
You say "Russia cannot win the war militarily" but neither, it seems can Ukraine with all its Western support, superior weapons and military in the face of Russia's strategic incompetence and ammunition and military personnel shortages. According to this thread, Russia has been losing this week since the second month of this 4-year conflict.
The US haven’t really given full support, and Europe takes ages to decide on anything. It looks like the next round of sanctions will target Kyrgyzstan which Russia has used as a back door to import from the EU. Russia’s war aim was to quickly capture Kyiv and consolidate the entire country into to Russia. It does not have capacity to do so. It’s taken 4 years to capture an area smaller than Iceland and over a million casualties in a huge country. US and European investment and trade is still going on in western Ukraine, there’s no real risk of any Russian advance beyond the Dniper (and even reaching that is unlikely).
Ukraine will likely lose Crimea and probably most of Lukansk and Donetsk. There are no winners really but that would be a favourable outcome to the West. Russia will emerge with a shattered army, almost all its liquid cash reserves gone, soaring interest rates, and China looting its natural resources.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 22:35 - Feb 4 with 234 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 22:09 - Feb 4 by SuperKieranMcKenna
The US haven’t really given full support, and Europe takes ages to decide on anything. It looks like the next round of sanctions will target Kyrgyzstan which Russia has used as a back door to import from the EU. Russia’s war aim was to quickly capture Kyiv and consolidate the entire country into to Russia. It does not have capacity to do so. It’s taken 4 years to capture an area smaller than Iceland and over a million casualties in a huge country. US and European investment and trade is still going on in western Ukraine, there’s no real risk of any Russian advance beyond the Dniper (and even reaching that is unlikely).
Ukraine will likely lose Crimea and probably most of Lukansk and Donetsk. There are no winners really but that would be a favourable outcome to the West. Russia will emerge with a shattered army, almost all its liquid cash reserves gone, soaring interest rates, and China looting its natural resources.
"Russia’s war aim was to quickly capture Kyiv and consolidate the entire country into to Russia."
Was that Russia's stated aim, or our interpretation of what their initial actions were?
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