| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? 10:28 - Dec 28 with 786 views | unstableblue |
Statistically Town are doing well, and we’ve seen moments of the brilliant team we can be. And half-way through the season, 5 points off second with superior goal difference.
Our stats reveal a side who dominate games and create chances and threat.
3rd in goals per match; 2nd in least goals conceded; 2nd on average posession; 5th on clean sheets; 3rd on expected goals; 3rd on shots on target; 1st on big chances; 3rd on touches in opposition box; 1st for the least XG conceded;
But no one of feeling that upbeat, despite the above. For me it’s simply down to 4 things:
1. Teams are playing up against the leagues favourite and best funded club, and they are sitting deep and pressing us hard.
2. Despite the league feeling inferior this campaign there are good manager who are getting their game plans right against us - see Boxing Day - interestingly Lampard did not
3. We lack confidence, energy and belief to really sustain pressure, move the ball quicker, this is in part due to 1 and 2
4. Our striker, number 10 and right attacking side are just not being effective enough in getting goals
5. The fan base has just not yet connected with this team, and there is apathy in the stands, and at times negativity which is transferring to the players - in part caused by missing the old guard, and mainly because of 1-4 above, and perhaps influencing 3 and 4
In short the season is stuttering along, but needs to catch fire.
We need Azon, Akpom, Egeli to find true form - Nunez is doing OK, but as the team isn’t gelling with the nine - OR we do some great January business. Burns return could be key, but a full recovery from his injury make this a bonus, rather than something to bank.
By fixing the attack, perhaps this will fix the fan base?
Coventry will be interesting as Lampard made the error of trying to play openly against us and got punished - he’ll really want a win tomorrow as a marker for the Prem.
COYFB |  |
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| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 10:36 - Dec 28 with 732 views | bobbyramsey |
"By fixing the attack, perhaps this will fix the fan base?"
This would go a long way to resolving a lot of the problems...
Start banging a few of the "big chances" in. |  | | |
| Yes indeed look at those Big Chances Missed stats on 10:52 - Dec 28 with 669 views | unstableblue |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 10:36 - Dec 28 by bobbyramsey |
"By fixing the attack, perhaps this will fix the fan base?"
This would go a long way to resolving a lot of the problems...
Start banging a few of the "big chances" in. |
We top the table of big chances missed:
1) Ipswich 43 big chances missed with 38 goals scored
Coventry are 6th with 33 big chances missed, but with 54 goals scored
Convert a third of those were probably comfortably second and with a buzz in the fan base
Let’s hope the goals start coming more regularly Bobby, I do think Akpom, Azon and Egeli have it in them… but we need them now. I do think McAteer can also ‘make it’ but none are league ready today. | |
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| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 10:52 - Dec 28 with 669 views | Herbivore |
If more of the right games had gone our way - thinking particularly games like Boxing Day, the home games with Wrexham and Watford - then we'd be feeling a bit better about life. Not ecstatic, but in each of those games we've had enough about us to have won and we've not got it over the line.
Despite not playing well consistently and not being where we'd like to be in the league, we should still have more points than we do based off what we all agree have been fairly underwhelming performances. I think there'd be less frustration if we were tucked in behind Coventry, which is where all of the data suggests we should be. But we haven't managed to get there because something is lacking, whether that's belief or confidence, or just not being good enough in the big moments in games. If we'd found ways to win more often it'd be easier to cope with performances being imperfect, there'd be some optimism that when things do really click we'll blow the league away. But the same issues keep recurring while we wait for that clicking to happen and that's causing anxiety in the fans. |  |
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| McKenna must shoulder some responsibility on 10:58 - Dec 28 with 651 views | unstableblue |
Yes these are good manager he’s putting himself against, yes these teams are playing up against us, yes they are going deep, yes our fan base aren’t doing our job…
BUT Akpom, Azon, Egeli, McAteer must have been signed off by him… with the knowledge that Hirst can be injury and form prone. I actually think all of them can be effective and can be be good purchases but we need form now in December. Albeit with the caveats that 50% of transfers fail and Philogene, Matusiwa and Clarke have been good.
More importantly McKenna has to try and fire some energy into the players and find patterns to break down these dogged defences.
Having said all that for me the number one issue is confidence, if this team can play to its best (and we’ve seen glimpses through the season) we can definitely secure second.
COYFB | |
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| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 11:04 - Dec 28 with 641 views | unstableblue |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 10:52 - Dec 28 by Herbivore |
If more of the right games had gone our way - thinking particularly games like Boxing Day, the home games with Wrexham and Watford - then we'd be feeling a bit better about life. Not ecstatic, but in each of those games we've had enough about us to have won and we've not got it over the line.
Despite not playing well consistently and not being where we'd like to be in the league, we should still have more points than we do based off what we all agree have been fairly underwhelming performances. I think there'd be less frustration if we were tucked in behind Coventry, which is where all of the data suggests we should be. But we haven't managed to get there because something is lacking, whether that's belief or confidence, or just not being good enough in the big moments in games. If we'd found ways to win more often it'd be easier to cope with performances being imperfect, there'd be some optimism that when things do really click we'll blow the league away. But the same issues keep recurring while we wait for that clicking to happen and that's causing anxiety in the fans. |
Happy New Year Herbie.
Yeah, a good point of view.
If the Millwall away performance had been taken in isolation and/or if we’d secured 6 points against Wrexham/Watford with us ‘tucked in’ behind Coventry - then I think fans would be lauding a solid away performance and point.
I do think Alex Neil did a job on us yesterday.
But this spluttering season needs to fire up soon; either via getting a tune out of Akpom/Azon or a big signing. | |
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| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 11:08 - Dec 28 with 639 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
A good summary, the only thing I would challenge is :
"2. Despite the league feeling inferior this campaign"
The numbers don't stack up with this at all. I posted about this yesterday :
We're in a league where the points distribution is pretty much on par with the median for the past 15 years, so a fairly normal Championship. In the last 15 years the only big outlier was 23/24, and even then only the top 4.
There really is nothing to indicate that this year is a particularly poor league. |  | | |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 11:47 - Dec 28 with 550 views | Smoresy |
Support in the stands has been great in quantity, crap in quality. There's plenty more spirit and bottle on the pitch that's for sure. I distinguish been support in the stands and verdicts outside the ground, specifically referring to the lack of character shown during games by people who then moan about a lack of character in front of them. "Chiselled in each other's image" would do a slight disservice to those running around in front of us.
On the team, a simple observation from me is home vs away form:
At home we've won 7, drawn 4, had the mother of all sucker punches once. We've had games like Watford, where shooters were psychically linked to voodoo dolls owned by Elton John. Still we average just over 2 PPG and we typically create enough that we should win.
Away from home we've won 3, drawn 4, lost 4, averaging just under 1.2 PPG. Did we deserve a draw against Oxford? Probably. Did we deserve a loss against Blackburn? Probably. Did we deserve a win against Millwall? Definitely not. We didn't create a good chance in the game, just a ball blasted into Azón's body and a pass Nunez didn't see. Meanwhile Walton found himself at full stretch.
Fix away performances, that's key. | | | |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 12:31 - Dec 28 with 452 views | Smoresy |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 11:08 - Dec 28 by SuffolkPunchFC |
A good summary, the only thing I would challenge is :
"2. Despite the league feeling inferior this campaign"
The numbers don't stack up with this at all. I posted about this yesterday :
We're in a league where the points distribution is pretty much on par with the median for the past 15 years, so a fairly normal Championship. In the last 15 years the only big outlier was 23/24, and even then only the top 4.
There really is nothing to indicate that this year is a particularly poor league. |
Notable that you needed to stretch comparison to the past 15 years, I'd suggest. The uncompetitive financial discrepancies in this league have increasingly widened during that time. Let's take the top three standings this decade:
Our season
Coventry 51
Boro 43
Ipswich 38
24/25 halfway table
Sheff Utd 50
Leeds 48
Burnley 47
23/24 halfway table
Leicester 58
Ipswich 52
Leeds 45
22/23 halfway table
Burnley 47
Sheff Utd 44
Blackburn 39
21/22 halfway table
Fulham 45
Bournemouth 43
Blackburn 42
20/21 halfway table
Norwich 47
Brentford 44
Swansea 43
The crucial difference for me isn't just in points, where we are closest to the 22/23 season. It's the makeup of the top three teams. We all know that Coventry and Boro can't afford the depth of parachute clubs. In that 22/23 season, Burnley finished on 101 and Sheff Utd 91: packed squads bearing down on the rest. A Leeds or Burnley 24/25 vintage would again be demolishing this league, that's in little doubt. Will Boro continue apace? That's in greater doubt, far thinner on the ground.
We have good Championship XIs, sparse squads, at the top this season, because the parachute clubs have largely fallen into two categories. 1) well put together, exited the division (Leeds and Burnley). 2) total bin fire, x managers in y months, double relegation, running from FFP, shot themselves in the foot (Luton, Leicester, Sheff Utd and Southampton). Normally stability isn't even required, such is the gulf in funding between the haves and have nots, but poor decisions have this year resulted in a generationally bad crop of those with money. We are category 3) stable and normal, but we haven't reached normal performance levels yet for a club with our advantage over others. | | | |
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| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 12:31 - Dec 28 with 451 views | Herbivore |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 11:08 - Dec 28 by SuffolkPunchFC |
A good summary, the only thing I would challenge is :
"2. Despite the league feeling inferior this campaign"
The numbers don't stack up with this at all. I posted about this yesterday :
We're in a league where the points distribution is pretty much on par with the median for the past 15 years, so a fairly normal Championship. In the last 15 years the only big outlier was 23/24, and even then only the top 4.
There really is nothing to indicate that this year is a particularly poor league. |
There's also been a fairly hefty amount of money spent in the Championship this season, even by our feathered friends up the road. There's not many genuinely poor sides in the league this season, albeit the level generally at this level isn't great. We're fortunate that neither of the other parachute sides are strong this year but otherwise it's a pretty standard Championship, not particularly poor as others are making out. | |
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| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 12:38 - Dec 28 with 421 views | NthQldITFC |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 12:31 - Dec 28 by Herbivore |
There's also been a fairly hefty amount of money spent in the Championship this season, even by our feathered friends up the road. There's not many genuinely poor sides in the league this season, albeit the level generally at this level isn't great. We're fortunate that neither of the other parachute sides are strong this year but otherwise it's a pretty standard Championship, not particularly poor as others are making out. |
I think in comparing this season with two years ago, as the Blue Monday boys pointed out in the latest podcast, that while the quality at the top doesn't seem to be very good, a lot more middling to lower teams have a better physicality and organisation that can neutralise the better teams like us unless we are really on our game. |  |
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| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 12:49 - Dec 28 with 380 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 12:31 - Dec 28 by Smoresy |
Notable that you needed to stretch comparison to the past 15 years, I'd suggest. The uncompetitive financial discrepancies in this league have increasingly widened during that time. Let's take the top three standings this decade:
Our season
Coventry 51
Boro 43
Ipswich 38
24/25 halfway table
Sheff Utd 50
Leeds 48
Burnley 47
23/24 halfway table
Leicester 58
Ipswich 52
Leeds 45
22/23 halfway table
Burnley 47
Sheff Utd 44
Blackburn 39
21/22 halfway table
Fulham 45
Bournemouth 43
Blackburn 42
20/21 halfway table
Norwich 47
Brentford 44
Swansea 43
The crucial difference for me isn't just in points, where we are closest to the 22/23 season. It's the makeup of the top three teams. We all know that Coventry and Boro can't afford the depth of parachute clubs. In that 22/23 season, Burnley finished on 101 and Sheff Utd 91: packed squads bearing down on the rest. A Leeds or Burnley 24/25 vintage would again be demolishing this league, that's in little doubt. Will Boro continue apace? That's in greater doubt, far thinner on the ground.
We have good Championship XIs, sparse squads, at the top this season, because the parachute clubs have largely fallen into two categories. 1) well put together, exited the division (Leeds and Burnley). 2) total bin fire, x managers in y months, double relegation, running from FFP, shot themselves in the foot (Luton, Leicester, Sheff Utd and Southampton). Normally stability isn't even required, such is the gulf in funding between the haves and have nots, but poor decisions have this year resulted in a generationally bad crop of those with money. We are category 3) stable and normal, but we haven't reached normal performance levels yet for a club with our advantage over others. |
When I looked at the stats, I looked at not only points needed for the top of the table, but to make a play-off spot, mid-table and be outside the relegation spots.
A much broader analysis than the top few, and the mean is remarkable static and this season very much in line with it.
This is a better measure of the Championship as a whole (since people talk about the league being poor as a whole). With that analysis, it didn't make any significant different whether it was 10 or 15 years. | | | |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 12:57 - Dec 28 with 353 views | Smoresy |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 12:31 - Dec 28 by Herbivore |
There's also been a fairly hefty amount of money spent in the Championship this season, even by our feathered friends up the road. There's not many genuinely poor sides in the league this season, albeit the level generally at this level isn't great. We're fortunate that neither of the other parachute sides are strong this year but otherwise it's a pretty standard Championship, not particularly poor as others are making out. |
Fully agree on this point, albeit Norwich shed a couple of their best and made a transfer profit. I'd guess the 12th best team is a bit better than normal, aided by atypically funded newcomers in Wrexham and Brum. It really is just at the top where the normal contenders aren't there. | | | |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 13:16 - Dec 28 with 337 views | itfcsuth |
Well on the face of it the back 6/7 is fairly well balanced and stable, and have largely performed well, with a couple of errors in there but nothing you wouldn’t expect from a Championship side.
Walton
Furlong - O’Shea - Kipre - Davis
Matusiwa - Taylor
Alternatives: Palmer, Greaves, Young, Cajuste
That is in essence a well balanced collection of players, that can consistently perform.
The flip side is the front 4, the lack balance, lack of connection, consistency, but that has been evident from very early in the season, but outside of a transfer window we haven’t been able to balance it out.
We’ve seen 4 options from the right (Sindre, Kasey, Wes, J.Clarke), 5 options in the 10 (Nunez, Sammie, Sindre, J.Clarke and Chuba), 2 from the left largely and 3 as 9 (Hirst, Azon, Chuba).
Where we were so consistent and connected (Burns, Broadhead, Chaplin, Hirst), we are a little bit of a mess in that area at the moment, and it shows in performances. |  | | |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 13:17 - Dec 28 with 332 views | Smoresy |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 12:49 - Dec 28 by SuffolkPunchFC |
When I looked at the stats, I looked at not only points needed for the top of the table, but to make a play-off spot, mid-table and be outside the relegation spots.
A much broader analysis than the top few, and the mean is remarkable static and this season very much in line with it.
This is a better measure of the Championship as a whole (since people talk about the league being poor as a whole). With that analysis, it didn't make any significant different whether it was 10 or 15 years. |
Oh right. I think most are remarking on the automatic promotion fight honestly when they make those comments. After all that's what's relevant to us this year, touch wood. And because you'd normally see two or three meatier squads in the top six at this stage, or top three even, a Millwall wouldn't normally have had as many points as they did when we played them; stronger squads would have hoovered up more points.
I'm not sure how conclusive points distribution analysis is for gauging the quality of teams within a league over time, but I imagine it does a good job at gauging competitiveness over time. [Post edited 28 Dec 13:19]
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| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 13:32 - Dec 28 with 282 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 13:17 - Dec 28 by Smoresy |
Oh right. I think most are remarking on the automatic promotion fight honestly when they make those comments. After all that's what's relevant to us this year, touch wood. And because you'd normally see two or three meatier squads in the top six at this stage, or top three even, a Millwall wouldn't normally have had as many points as they did when we played them; stronger squads would have hoovered up more points.
I'm not sure how conclusive points distribution analysis is for gauging the quality of teams within a league over time, but I imagine it does a good job at gauging competitiveness over time. [Post edited 28 Dec 13:19]
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I don't think there is any real way to measure the 'quality' of a league, especially between years. Trying something rather than relying on instinct or the 'eye-test' seems sensible though.
As you say, it's probably more a measure of competitiveness, and maybe that actually is more meaningful than some arbitrary measure of 'quality'.
With regard to our position, surely the quality (or maybe more accurately, competitiveness) of the entire league is material to the size of our challenge? What defines success is taking points off the entire league, not just those pushing for promotion, and if the entire league is competitive, that makes the push for the top even harder. | | | |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 13:53 - Dec 28 with 247 views | Smoresy |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 13:32 - Dec 28 by SuffolkPunchFC |
I don't think there is any real way to measure the 'quality' of a league, especially between years. Trying something rather than relying on instinct or the 'eye-test' seems sensible though.
As you say, it's probably more a measure of competitiveness, and maybe that actually is more meaningful than some arbitrary measure of 'quality'.
With regard to our position, surely the quality (or maybe more accurately, competitiveness) of the entire league is material to the size of our challenge? What defines success is taking points off the entire league, not just those pushing for promotion, and if the entire league is competitive, that makes the push for the top even harder. |
Quality is more pertinent than closeness. If you parachute us into the 100th best league in the world, in which all other teams are incredibly competitive with each other, you should expect us to do exceedingly well.
In respect to measuring quality, Opta attempts to do so with its 'power rankings' tables, for both teams and leagues, although it must be challenging to accurately track performance levels below elite level. It's also isn't something I pay regular attention to. Quality measured arbitrarily, i.e. without reason, would give no insight at all other than on the quality of the measurer lol. | | | |
| I do think Egeli and Azon can come good, and also McAteer.. BUT on 18:57 - Dec 28 with 110 views | unstableblue |
| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 13:16 - Dec 28 by itfcsuth |
Well on the face of it the back 6/7 is fairly well balanced and stable, and have largely performed well, with a couple of errors in there but nothing you wouldn’t expect from a Championship side.
Walton
Furlong - O’Shea - Kipre - Davis
Matusiwa - Taylor
Alternatives: Palmer, Greaves, Young, Cajuste
That is in essence a well balanced collection of players, that can consistently perform.
The flip side is the front 4, the lack balance, lack of connection, consistency, but that has been evident from very early in the season, but outside of a transfer window we haven’t been able to balance it out.
We’ve seen 4 options from the right (Sindre, Kasey, Wes, J.Clarke), 5 options in the 10 (Nunez, Sammie, Sindre, J.Clarke and Chuba), 2 from the left largely and 3 as 9 (Hirst, Azon, Chuba).
Where we were so consistent and connected (Burns, Broadhead, Chaplin, Hirst), we are a little bit of a mess in that area at the moment, and it shows in performances. |
We need them to click now… not in the spring… or perhaps in mcateers, case next season!
I do think Nunez is performing but needs more movement around him.
Think we’ll hit the Jan market to fix this issue… but mean we may have a lot of attackers on the sidelines outside of matchday squad.
Let’s go and smash a more open Coventry and give our current attackers a much needed boost. | |
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| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 19:16 - Dec 28 with 73 views | Vic |
So basically it supports that our league position is exactly right for all our stats, and what we all know - that the 2nd half of the season needs to be a bit better than the 1st half. Do that and there's no reason to think we won't be there or there abouts. |  |
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| Season stats, so close yet so far - fix the attack and support? on 19:26 - Dec 28 with 56 views | vilanovablue |
All this tells me is we are in a scrap for the autos. |  | | |
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