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Now I was looking at the table thinking win 2 games in hand and we're two points off second place, right in it.
However I just watched a video from MattSB youtuber (link below)
Quite alarmed by the maths he gave. To get 2nd place he extrapolated that you'd need to reach 86 points, which is Boro containing at their current rate of PPG (he also said that since Hellberg took over their ppg is even higher than that.
He then showed what each team needs to do from this point to reach that target. In order for Ipswich to reach 86 points from 15 games left to play, we'd need 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses
It sounds very daunting when put like that. I think we will need to win probably 4 or 5 games in a row to achieve that.
Looking at our next 6 games, you'd say this has to be the chance to go on a winning run. They are all very winnable and you'd be targeting wins in all of them maybe bar tonight where a draw and good performance to steady the ship would be acceptable. I think there's a real possibility we can win 4 or ideally 5 of the next 6 with draws from the other 2, but any less than that and it's probably settling for playoffs now.
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Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:52 - Feb 24 with 733 views
2 points off assuming we win both the games in hand. Seen a lot of people just +6 to our total which is in no way a given.
Agree with the rest of your post though - feels to me like we are looking at needing something like the W's, D's and L's you've outlined to make the top 2. It's time for the squad to stand up and be counted now.
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Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:57 - Feb 24 with 706 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:52 - Feb 24 by tractorboy1978
2 points off assuming we win both the games in hand. Seen a lot of people just +6 to our total which is in no way a given.
Agree with the rest of your post though - feels to me like we are looking at needing something like the W's, D's and L's you've outlined to make the top 2. It's time for the squad to stand up and be counted now.
Yeah, even if we do win the games in hand that still leaves a target of 8 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 13 games, still relatively daunting.
Squad definitely capable of it but if we waste this run of fixtures offering a great chance to get into top gear, and by that I mean probably anything less than 4 wins from 6, top 2 is cooked for me.
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Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:59 - Feb 24 with 685 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:57 - Feb 24 by ElderGrizzly
We've 'only' lost 7 all season, so 3 in the remaining games would mean continuing 'as is' across a season, or even seeing a slight drop off in form.
It's very achievable.
It's the ratio of wins and draws that is more problematic. These away draws in particular simply have to become wins from now on. Home form is good enough as is
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Points and results required to get 2nd place on 12:07 - Feb 24 with 620 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:52 - Feb 24 by tractorboy1978
2 points off assuming we win both the games in hand. Seen a lot of people just +6 to our total which is in no way a given.
Agree with the rest of your post though - feels to me like we are looking at needing something like the W's, D's and L's you've outlined to make the top 2. It's time for the squad to stand up and be counted now.
Ben Bloom always say that you should give your points per game total for the games in hand. So 1.74 x 2 = 3.5 points from those two games as an average. Either rounded down to 3 or rounded up to 4. Definitely not 6.
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Points and results required to get 2nd place on 12:14 - Feb 24 by GlasgowBlue
Ben Bloom always say that you should give your points per game total for the games in hand. So 1.74 x 2 = 3.5 points from those two games as an average. Either rounded down to 3 or rounded up to 4. Definitely not 6.
With that sort of thinking, how many points would Ben Bloom have realistically forecast for our two matches against Coventry in December based on both clubs PPG before we played them?
Matches are won and lost on football pitches and league positions are decided at the end of the season, otherwise we'd be content with simply doing computer simulations or stopping the season early after realising that we've seen enough matches in order to extrapolate the rest.
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 13:21 - Feb 24 by Pinewoodblue
Essential that Middlesbrough are not one of the lost games. Same could be said for games against Hull & Millwall.
This. We need to improve on our last 15 game form in the next 15. Turning a couple of losses into wins. We also need 2 of Boro Hull and Cov to achieve worse than their last 13 game form in their next 13. Boro, Hull and Millwall games ideally are must not lose games.
I’m sure the season has a twist or turn in store with the form books being ripped up by some teams - just hope that includes us!! In the positive direction.
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Points and results required to get 2nd place on 13:45 - Feb 24 with 77 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 12:28 - Feb 24 by Cafe_Newman
With that sort of thinking, how many points would Ben Bloom have realistically forecast for our two matches against Coventry in December based on both clubs PPG before we played them?
Matches are won and lost on football pitches and league positions are decided at the end of the season, otherwise we'd be content with simply doing computer simulations or stopping the season early after realising that we've seen enough matches in order to extrapolate the rest.
I think you're being unfair here, he's specifically talking about how to account for games in hand when comparing league positions.
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