| Expectations, reality and normalcy 08:07 - Mar 22 with 3630 views | bsw72 |
I think there is a peculiar distortion affecting how many supporters are currently assessing this season. The benchmark being applied, consciously or not, is drawn from the two most extraordinary consecutive seasons in the division’s modern history.
In 2023-24, Leicester claimed the title on 97 points while we finished runners-up on 96. The following year, Leeds and Burnley both crossed the 100-point mark. These were not high-water marks. They were freakish anomalies that have no business serving as a baseline for what promotion requires.
The historical reality is rather dull. Champions have lifted the trophy on as few as 87 points. A runners-up spot has been secured on 79. Across fifteen seasons, exceeding 95 points happened only 40% of the time at the summit.
The current campaign, by contrast, looks entirely typical of a normal, competitive Championship year. That context was conspicuously absent when bookmakers installed Town as pre-season favourites and sections of the fanbase arrived in August declaring “100 points, 100 goals” as a realistic ambition. That was always magical thinking dressed up as expectation.
What compounds the distortion is the sheer turbulence this club has absorbed since 2022. Back-to-back promotions, while extraordinary achievements, has brought profound disruption. Premier League infrastructure, staffing, scouting, medical provision and playing philosophy all had to be rebuilt almost instantly. Relegation then triggered another wave of upheaval, with significant player turnover as contracted Premier League talent departed and a largely new squad was assembled at considerable cost. A lot of supporters see that outlay and expect instant cohesion, but football has never worked that way.
A collection of expensively acquired individuals is not a team. Shared understanding, tactical familiarity and the slow accumulation of trust between players cannot be purchased. The truth is that the club has not known anything resembling normalcy since 2022, and a settled, functional squad identity takes time to build.
The 25-26 season is not underperformance. It is a club and new team still finding its feet. We just forgot what normal looks like. |  | | |  |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 19:53 - Mar 22 with 571 views | HighgateBlue |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 15:24 - Mar 22 by waveneyblue |
You've got your opinion (mainly critical) the OP and many others have theirs. I dont know if its your style of posting but you always give the vibe that yours is the correct one. (Not a dig before you call me out)
As has been mentioned a zillion times, money is a major advantage but its not the be all and end all.
We've been in constant flux for 4 seasons now, mostly for good reasons, why people cant see that and think that the cheque book is the answer to everything puzzles the life out of me. |
I think anyone sensible accepts that the chequebook is not a magic wand. But of course it's a modern fan disease to obsess over transfers and fees. We're all guilty of that- certainly I am.
But in fairness, it's not just frustrated fans who think that the chequebook is the answer. Kieran and Ashton had a lot of questions to answer in relation to personnel at the end of last season. They could have kept more of the core of the side together, or opt for the chequebook. They opted for the chequebook. Twist rather than stick. I don't criticise them for that as a matter of principle.
But why be surprised that fans think that the chequebook is the answer, when that is the very answer that the club has chosen in response to the questions as to what our squad would look like this season?
Whilst appreciating that money isn't a panacea, I do think it's reasonable to judge a manager's or a team's performance by reference to its budget. But certainly judgement needs to wait until the end of the season. When we may all be cheering together. That would be nice. |  | | |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 19:53 - Mar 22 with 574 views | bsw72 |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 19:33 - Mar 22 by solemio |
The word 'normalcy' was incorrect, but is one of those words where so many people got it wrong that it has become correct.
Normality is still the preferred word. |
Actually, on this one you are factually incorrect on every count, might I say wrong even, which is unfortunate given the confidence with which you have delivered the correction.
“Normalcy” is not a word that became acceptable through widespread misuse. It has a perfectly legitimate etymology and has never been considered incorrect. The distinction between normalcy and normality is one of register and geography, not correctness, both are listed without qualification in mainstream dictionaries, none of which treat one as inferior to the other.
The notion that normalcy is simply a mistake that accumulated enough repetitions to achieve reluctant acceptance is itself the mistake. It was never wrong, it’s a legitimate variant.
So to summarise, the article’s word choice was entirely appropriate, the supposed error was not an error, and the correction was itself incorrect. A gentle suggestion to verify before correcting would seem appropriate here. | | | |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 19:58 - Mar 22 with 551 views | armchaircritic59 |
Interesting post and some good points made, I happen to disagree with the final sentence, but the the game is all about opinions isn't it, and non of us has a monoply on the right ones! |  | | |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 20:09 - Mar 22 with 523 views | bsw72 |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 13:20 - Mar 22 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
No - it’s an underperformance in a weak league.
Since the parachute payments of the last decade (which have only increased year on year) you’ve needed 88 points or more to get promoted all but one time which was West Brom in 2019. If we don’t hit 88+ this season, that’s poor.
How you’ve written all that without acknowledging parachute payments is ridiculous. |
I reference the amount spent on the squad a couple of times. Didn’t realise I had to implicitly call out parachute payments but apologies if you failed to comprehend what was implied, I’ll make it more obvious in future.
Yes, parachute payments are real and have influenced the Championship for years. Nobody serious disputes that. But you have taken a narrow, selectively framed data point, dressed it up as a universal truth, and then declared me ridiculous for not referencing. So let us examine what you have actually argued.
Your 88-point threshold holds up reasonably well as a runners-up benchmark across the last decade, but it is a product of the same anomaly seasons the post already addressed. Strip out 2023-24 and 2024-25, two seasons so statistically exceptional they distort any rolling average, and the picture looks considerably less dramatic.
QPR were promoted as champions on 88 points in 2011. Cardiff went up on 87. Hull secured automatic promotion on 79. West Brom, as you yourself acknowledge, went up on 83 in 2020.
The argument that failing to reach 88 points in the current environment represents straightforward underperformance, reducible to a single financial variable, is considerably more simplistic than the picture actually warrants. | | | |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 20:24 - Mar 22 with 509 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 11:03 - Mar 22 by bsw72 |
The other thing is that parachute money is not the difference it used to be with financial fair play evening the field in the Championship more than it does in the Prem.
Wrexham, Coventry, Middlesbrough, Preston, WBA, Brum even Swansea all have significant private investors generally worth over £500m who are investing more and more in their clubs. |
I’m not sure about that. We had a new media deal last year that’s allowed clubs to spend a bit more than previously, but parachute payments still make a massive difference to a club’s finances.
Wrexham have a lot of headroom from being promoted (as we did). Swansea don’t have a lot to piss in; there’s no significant money committed from their investors and they’ve got one of the lowest wage bills in the league. Coventry spent about £10m this season on transfers and also have a very low wage bill (20th of you believe what’s reported, just 1 place higher than Swansea). Preston have spent almost nothing, almost one of the lowest wage bills. Brum had a net spend of about £10m, not massive. WBA had a negative net spend by about £8m. Both have mid-table wage bills.
The wage bills and spend of the parachute clubs is still 3-4 times everyone else. It’s a massive advantage. |  |
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| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 20:29 - Mar 22 with 500 views | Blue_Heath |
But spending £200m is not normal either hence the expectations. | |
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| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 20:47 - Mar 22 with 481 views | Churchman |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 16:48 - Mar 22 by waveneyblue |
It fascinates me how so many "supporters" will argue so hard against the club when trying to do them down. This fella being the ultimate example.
I remember when it was the norm to defend your club to the hilt.
This modern world is "well weird" |
You are right. Well weird. It saddens the heck out of me. [Post edited 23 Mar 15:48]
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| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 22:11 - Mar 22 with 438 views | Smoresy |
Much of that is very good imo. We're very much a work in progress still.
I'm not sure which is the greater distortion re normal points totals tbh. 24/25: 100 & 100. 23/24: 97 & 96. 22/23: 101 & 91. 21/22: 90 & 88. 20/21: 97 & 91. Evidently the further back you travel, the less common 95+ points was for the title winner, which we were heavily fancied to be. High totals have been the norm of late though, for 1st and 2nd.
Then to the on-pitch turbulence: I think our relative calmness and stability is what made us favourites in the eyes of many, above other parachute clubs. We've had the same manager for over 4 years, while most Championship managers have been in post for under 1 year. I'd be curious to know if our player churn makes us an outlier; my supposal has long been that turnover is quite high at this level. If you've been working at the same club with the same tactics for over a year then you're in an unusually helpful position, as a Championship player I'd guess. | | | |
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| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 22:49 - Mar 22 with 401 views | Whos_blue |
A good, well considered post.
Not everyone will agree of course, but that's always healthy just as long as the counter position is equally well considered. (It isn't always)
The OP has captured my thoughts.
Also the obligatory downy from Earnest, so all good. |  |
| Distortion becomes somehow pure in its wildness. |
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| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 23:54 - Mar 22 with 363 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 20:09 - Mar 22 by bsw72 |
I reference the amount spent on the squad a couple of times. Didn’t realise I had to implicitly call out parachute payments but apologies if you failed to comprehend what was implied, I’ll make it more obvious in future.
Yes, parachute payments are real and have influenced the Championship for years. Nobody serious disputes that. But you have taken a narrow, selectively framed data point, dressed it up as a universal truth, and then declared me ridiculous for not referencing. So let us examine what you have actually argued.
Your 88-point threshold holds up reasonably well as a runners-up benchmark across the last decade, but it is a product of the same anomaly seasons the post already addressed. Strip out 2023-24 and 2024-25, two seasons so statistically exceptional they distort any rolling average, and the picture looks considerably less dramatic.
QPR were promoted as champions on 88 points in 2011. Cardiff went up on 87. Hull secured automatic promotion on 79. West Brom, as you yourself acknowledge, went up on 83 in 2020.
The argument that failing to reach 88 points in the current environment represents straightforward underperformance, reducible to a single financial variable, is considerably more simplistic than the picture actually warrants. |
I haven’t taken a narrow selectively framed data points at all.
I’ve taken since the start of parachute payments and you are talking about promotions from over 13-14 years ago because you think it supports your viewpoint. When mine is data of a decade, more current and more relevant (as we are one!). |  |
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| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 00:03 - Mar 23 with 353 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 22:11 - Mar 22 by Smoresy |
Much of that is very good imo. We're very much a work in progress still.
I'm not sure which is the greater distortion re normal points totals tbh. 24/25: 100 & 100. 23/24: 97 & 96. 22/23: 101 & 91. 21/22: 90 & 88. 20/21: 97 & 91. Evidently the further back you travel, the less common 95+ points was for the title winner, which we were heavily fancied to be. High totals have been the norm of late though, for 1st and 2nd.
Then to the on-pitch turbulence: I think our relative calmness and stability is what made us favourites in the eyes of many, above other parachute clubs. We've had the same manager for over 4 years, while most Championship managers have been in post for under 1 year. I'd be curious to know if our player churn makes us an outlier; my supposal has long been that turnover is quite high at this level. If you've been working at the same club with the same tactics for over a year then you're in an unusually helpful position, as a Championship player I'd guess. |
Burnley lost an absolute tone of players when they last went down, around the time we signed O’Shea. In fact they had 17 in and 21 out during that summer window, 21!
They assembled an entire new squad going into September. Obviously then went on to score 100 points.
Yes it’s unusual to have coach for this long that’s managed the squad through the league changes. [Post edited 23 Mar 0:17]
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| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 00:28 - Mar 23 with 319 views | Smoresy |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 00:03 - Mar 23 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Burnley lost an absolute tone of players when they last went down, around the time we signed O’Shea. In fact they had 17 in and 21 out during that summer window, 21!
They assembled an entire new squad going into September. Obviously then went on to score 100 points.
Yes it’s unusual to have coach for this long that’s managed the squad through the league changes. [Post edited 23 Mar 0:17]
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Parker is the goat of Championship promotions in fairness, man doesn't miss.
Quick check of rivals - staff at club for over 18 months:
Cov - 17 players, manager 16 months.
Boro - 13 players, manager 4 months.
Wall - 11 players, manager 15 months.
Town - 11 players, manager 51 months.
Given that, I'd place us 2nd behind Cov for stability myself. | | | |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 08:26 - Mar 23 with 280 views | waveneyblue |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 22:49 - Mar 22 by Whos_blue |
A good, well considered post.
Not everyone will agree of course, but that's always healthy just as long as the counter position is equally well considered. (It isn't always)
The OP has captured my thoughts.
Also the obligatory downy from Earnest, so all good. |
I take downvotes from Earnest like a badge of honour.
If ive annoyed him even slightly, then it makes me happy. |  | | |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 14:48 - Mar 23 with 216 views | ernie |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 16:48 - Mar 22 by waveneyblue |
It fascinates me how so many "supporters" will argue so hard against the club when trying to do them down. This fella being the ultimate example.
I remember when it was the norm to defend your club to the hilt.
This modern world is "well weird" |
Yes, because in your world it really would make for such interesting and lively debate on here if each person posted the view that “Ipswich Town are the greatest team ever, let’s talk about what it is exactly that makes us so good?”. You really are a complete donut. | | | |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 16:01 - Mar 23 with 194 views | Churchman |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 14:48 - Mar 23 by ernie |
Yes, because in your world it really would make for such interesting and lively debate on here if each person posted the view that “Ipswich Town are the greatest team ever, let’s talk about what it is exactly that makes us so good?”. You really are a complete donut. |
Well one thing is for sure - limitless negativity and bleating on doesn’t make for any debate at all.
Here’s a challenge. Try saying something positive about the current club, management and team. Something you like. Just one thing about it that makes you think ‘oooh that’s good’. | | | |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 16:35 - Mar 23 with 170 views | waveneyblue |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 14:48 - Mar 23 by ernie |
Yes, because in your world it really would make for such interesting and lively debate on here if each person posted the view that “Ipswich Town are the greatest team ever, let’s talk about what it is exactly that makes us so good?”. You really are a complete donut. |
Alright Ernest hun? You seem to get really upset with me, which is weird as loads of other posters think you are a pillock too
If you ever need a hug, please let me know.
Ps, ive just noted my other mucker algy has upvoted you... please stop you two, its too funny. Just need BigAl to join in and I can shout Bingo [Post edited 23 Mar 16:39]
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| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 16:37 - Mar 23 with 164 views | waveneyblue |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 16:01 - Mar 23 by Churchman |
Well one thing is for sure - limitless negativity and bleating on doesn’t make for any debate at all.
Here’s a challenge. Try saying something positive about the current club, management and team. Something you like. Just one thing about it that makes you think ‘oooh that’s good’. |
Not a hope.
Old Ernie has never gotten over his milk cart being decommissioned.
Made him all sad and bitter ever since. | | | |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 16:46 - Mar 23 with 153 views | Churchman |
| Expectations, reality and normalcy on 16:37 - Mar 23 by waveneyblue |
Not a hope.
Old Ernie has never gotten over his milk cart being decommissioned.
Made him all sad and bitter ever since. |
Not even a ‘I thought Bluey looked well on Saturday’ or ‘the cones on which the footballs sit look nice and clean’? Oh well, never mind. | | | |
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