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Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 14:54 - Apr 8 by SuperKieranMcKenna
That last bit isn’t correct though - insurance is available and has been taken up but it’s simply too risky for ships to pass several cargo shops and tankers have been hit. To date there’s been movement of (mainly non western shipping).
Volume is military power though, the Gulf states would not be able to shut the straights in the way Iran have. Technology doesn’t always equate to military superiority, the Ukrainians have been out in the Gulf states demonstrating some incredibly low tech counter capabilities for drones and missiles (and has been a welcome financial boost for them).
I'll bow to any superior knowledge you have on the insurance but the last report I read from Lloyds says insurance costs for tankers was up 500%. I can dig it out if required but that is a significant increase even if you can get it.
I agree that volume is military power to a point, however it is not equal military power. Iran has huge geographical benefits which means it can close the straights with very low tech equipment and be highly effective.
That wasn't the debate being had though, that was around equality in military terms, something that is clearly not the case given Israel and the US have total air superiority and can bomb anything they like in Iran when it's not the case the other way around. Shutting the straights does little to the US or Israel in any military terms.
SB
Avatar - M101 - Pinwheel Galaxy
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Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:18 - Apr 8 with 334 views
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:06 - Apr 8 by StokieBlue
It was the discussion I was having with GB - he cited direct number of military assets in his analysis as an example of near equality between Israel and Iran which simply isn't the case. In those examples Iran's tech is outdated in comparison, MiG 29's don't compare to F35's etc.
As for economic damage, I don't think Iran could have imagined it being as successful as it has been.
SB
Fairy ‘nuff.
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Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:28 - Apr 8 with 320 views
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:06 - Apr 8 by StokieBlue
It was the discussion I was having with GB - he cited direct number of military assets in his analysis as an example of near equality between Israel and Iran which simply isn't the case. In those examples Iran's tech is outdated in comparison, MiG 29's don't compare to F35's etc.
As for economic damage, I don't think Iran could have imagined it being as successful as it has been.
SB
Someone on the World at One said it had been known for decades that Iran had the power to close the Straits of Hormuz.
I think they said that Iran had done something similar during the Iran-Iraq war, which was limited to those two countries, and so probably didn't affect much the other Gulf states.
The US has no excuse for not knowing this. And I am not convinced Netanyahu cares.
[Post edited 8 Apr 15:29]
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Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:28 - Apr 8 with 316 views
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 14:54 - Apr 8 by SuperKieranMcKenna
That last bit isn’t correct though - insurance is available and has been taken up but it’s simply too risky for ships to pass several cargo shops and tankers have been hit. To date there’s been movement of (mainly non western shipping).
Volume is military power though, the Gulf states would not be able to shut the straights in the way Iran have. Technology doesn’t always equate to military superiority, the Ukrainians have been out in the Gulf states demonstrating some incredibly low tech counter capabilities for drones and missiles (and has been a welcome financial boost for them).
Also worth remembering that Iran has been arming Russia with Shahed drones for the past three years.
“What is a club in any case? Not the buildings or the directors or the people who are paid to represent it........."
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 14:54 - Apr 8 by SuperKieranMcKenna
That last bit isn’t correct though - insurance is available and has been taken up but it’s simply too risky for ships to pass several cargo shops and tankers have been hit. To date there’s been movement of (mainly non western shipping).
Volume is military power though, the Gulf states would not be able to shut the straights in the way Iran have. Technology doesn’t always equate to military superiority, the Ukrainians have been out in the Gulf states demonstrating some incredibly low tech counter capabilities for drones and missiles (and has been a welcome financial boost for them).
This is from the Guardian on insurance.
"The US-Israeli ceasefire with Iran is unlikely to lead to a swift exit for the hundreds of oil and gas tankers trapped in the Gulf, according to shipping experts.
One seafarer who is aboard an oil tanker stranded behind the strait of Hormuz told the Guardian that shipping companies would require more certainty before they attempt to transit the strait.
“We’re at anchor, near dozens of loaded tankers. No one has moved an inch,” they said.
The seafarer said that bulk carriers, loaded with dry bulk such as cars and containers, had begun to move towards the Gulf but that major shipping companies would be unlikely to move oil and gas tankers without the go-ahead from insurance companies.
“No reputable company, with any links to EU countries, will risk moving without Lloyds and major insurers saying that they can,” they said.
“Transiting the strait will require more certainty; insurers will need to agree to insure these cargoes and there would need to be a better understanding of how to pay “toll fees” to a country which is still officially sanctioned.”
Of course, the situation may be less problematic for tankers which don't have any link to the EU or Lloyds, such as ships bound for China or India.
EDIT: and then there is this, which once again may favour certain ships of certain nations, depending on where they are headed.
"The Iranian navy threatened ships attempting to pass through the strait of Hormuz without Tehran’s permission with destruction, adding that transit through the waterway remained shut, according to several shipping sources.
“Any vessel trying to travel into the sea ... will be targeted and destroyed...” the message said."
In any event, this isn't the opening up of the Straits which was the aime of one of Trump's hyperbolic threats.
[Post edited 8 Apr 15:46]
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Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:44 - Apr 8 with 269 views
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:28 - Apr 8 by DJR
Someone on the World at One said it had been known for decades that Iran had the power to close the Straits of Hormuz.
I think they said that Iran had done something similar during the Iran-Iraq war, which was limited to those two countries, and so probably didn't affect much the other Gulf states.
The US has no excuse for not knowing this. And I am not convinced Netanyahu cares.
[Post edited 8 Apr 15:29]
Totally agree they knew it could happen.
I think to markets though it was far more shockingly effective than many would have thought. It's been worse than the previous 3 oil shocks combined [1].
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:28 - Apr 8 by GlasgowBlue
Also worth remembering that Iran has been arming Russia with Shahed drones for the past three years.
Not any more. Russia took the basic Iranian drone, upgraded all aspects of it and now make more than 90% of their own. That’s how they are able to devastate Ukraine every night, not that many people are particularly interested now.
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:31 - Apr 8 by DJR
This is from the Guardian on insurance.
"The US-Israeli ceasefire with Iran is unlikely to lead to a swift exit for the hundreds of oil and gas tankers trapped in the Gulf, according to shipping experts.
One seafarer who is aboard an oil tanker stranded behind the strait of Hormuz told the Guardian that shipping companies would require more certainty before they attempt to transit the strait.
“We’re at anchor, near dozens of loaded tankers. No one has moved an inch,” they said.
The seafarer said that bulk carriers, loaded with dry bulk such as cars and containers, had begun to move towards the Gulf but that major shipping companies would be unlikely to move oil and gas tankers without the go-ahead from insurance companies.
“No reputable company, with any links to EU countries, will risk moving without Lloyds and major insurers saying that they can,” they said.
“Transiting the strait will require more certainty; insurers will need to agree to insure these cargoes and there would need to be a better understanding of how to pay “toll fees” to a country which is still officially sanctioned.”
Of course, the situation may be less problematic for tankers which don't have any link to the EU or Lloyds, such as ships bound for China or India.
EDIT: and then there is this, which once again may favour certain ships of certain nations, depending on where they are headed.
"The Iranian navy threatened ships attempting to pass through the strait of Hormuz without Tehran’s permission with destruction, adding that transit through the waterway remained shut, according to several shipping sources.
“Any vessel trying to travel into the sea ... will be targeted and destroyed...” the message said."
In any event, this isn't the opening up of the Straits which was the aime of one of Trump's hyperbolic threats.
[Post edited 8 Apr 15:46]
Yes totally agree it’s the threat of Iran that’s stopped movement rather than insurance per se, Lloyd’s had confirmed coverage is available, they’ve said around 72 ships have transited but many shipping and energy firms will decide it’s not worth the risk (plus there’s an estimated 1,000+ backlog waiting to pass).
Of course this is a war that Iran have planned for years, knowing the West would not have appetite for the economic damage or boots on the ground. Saudi also prepared a pipeline to bypass Hormuz but obviously not at the same volume. Asia has been the hardesr hit given their reliance on the route, despite it not being their conflict.
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Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 16:10 - Apr 8 with 214 views
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:44 - Apr 8 by StokieBlue
Totally agree they knew it could happen.
I think to markets though it was far more shockingly effective than many would have thought. It's been worse than the previous 3 oil shocks combined [1].
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 15:44 - Apr 8 by StokieBlue
Totally agree they knew it could happen.
I think to markets though it was far more shockingly effective than many would have thought. It's been worse than the previous 3 oil shocks combined [1].
Sorry to be a pedant- but that’s the *oil market. Natural Gas prices haven’t hit anywhere near the volitility they did after Russia/Ukraine (whereby the price quadrupled), it will probably mean the impacts won’t be felt quite so severely across Europe. In fact the US has continued to benefit from the post Russia diversification of supplies to Europe, furthermore some of their financially vulnerable small and medium domestic producers have probably been saved by the oil price rises (they were losing money very rapidly at ~$60bbl).
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Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 16:33 - Apr 8 with 165 views
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 16:27 - Apr 8 by SuperKieranMcKenna
Sorry to be a pedant- but that’s the *oil market. Natural Gas prices haven’t hit anywhere near the volitility they did after Russia/Ukraine (whereby the price quadrupled), it will probably mean the impacts won’t be felt quite so severely across Europe. In fact the US has continued to benefit from the post Russia diversification of supplies to Europe, furthermore some of their financially vulnerable small and medium domestic producers have probably been saved by the oil price rises (they were losing money very rapidly at ~$60bbl).
I specifically said oil shocks later in the post, I just missed it out at the start, sorry about that.
Agree that internally to the US, smaller producers (things like fracking etc). I don't think we're disagreeing.
In the US a lot of it is perceptions with the public though and I saw earlier than the average cost of a gallon is now above 4 USD which I believe has long been a pivot point for the public and puts quite a lot of pressure on Trump.
SB
Avatar - M101 - Pinwheel Galaxy
0
Israel jumping the gun after the deranged orange senile toddler's latest rant on 20:11 - Apr 8 with 81 views
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