| Bond vigilantes. on 10:30 - May 12 with 873 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
No because as it stands most of our regulation is still aligned with the EU, if that is torn up we could lose our position as a major financial centre (there is still loads of trade with Europe in the City). On a wider point our banks ate held to very strict capital requirements which makes them appealing to international investors. As always it’s a case of a small amount of people might benefit, but overall it would be damaging (see also US tariffs). |  | |  |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:31 - May 12 with 866 views | nrb1985 |
Not sure you’ve entirely understood what a bond vigilante is. | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:35 - May 12 with 839 views | surreyblue |
Bond yields will already be pricing in a percentage chance of a future reform government, particularly for long-dated government bonds. Much of what is currently in Reform's manifesto is paper thin or breaks down in the real world, and a government elected without a credible financial plan is going to get destroyed in the bond market. | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:39 - May 12 with 820 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:31 - May 12 by nrb1985 |
Not sure you’ve entirely understood what a bond vigilante is. |
It's a fair point, I probably don't. Might they not be selling though, to force yields up and increase the chances of the current government falling? |  |
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| Bond vigilantes. on 10:41 - May 12 with 800 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:30 - May 12 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
No because as it stands most of our regulation is still aligned with the EU, if that is torn up we could lose our position as a major financial centre (there is still loads of trade with Europe in the City). On a wider point our banks ate held to very strict capital requirements which makes them appealing to international investors. As always it’s a case of a small amount of people might benefit, but overall it would be damaging (see also US tariffs). |
So you don't expect much in the way of deregulation in the financial sector once Nige is PM? For the avoidance of doubt these are genuine questions. | |
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| Bond vigilantes. on 10:44 - May 12 with 793 views | nrb1985 |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:39 - May 12 by BanksterDebtSlave |
It's a fair point, I probably don't. Might they not be selling though, to force yields up and increase the chances of the current government falling? |
Literally the opposite. | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:45 - May 12 with 772 views | giant_stow |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:39 - May 12 by BanksterDebtSlave |
It's a fair point, I probably don't. Might they not be selling though, to force yields up and increase the chances of the current government falling? |
I think they're selling cos they're less confident about the UK's prospects - cold, hard financial calculation of risks / rewards. Much of the money involved is probably foreign too, I'd guess. |  |
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| Bond vigilantes. on 10:48 - May 12 with 753 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:44 - May 12 by nrb1985 |
Literally the opposite. |
They're buying and yields are going down?
Edit ....or are you saying that vigilantes aren't involved and it's just the normal bond market? [Post edited 12 May 10:50]
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| Bond vigilantes. on 10:49 - May 12 with 742 views | nrb1985 |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:48 - May 12 by BanksterDebtSlave |
They're buying and yields are going down?
Edit ....or are you saying that vigilantes aren't involved and it's just the normal bond market? [Post edited 12 May 10:50]
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They are selling bonds because they don’t like the uncertainty of a possible change of government. | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:52 - May 12 with 730 views | TheMoralMajority |
Very disappointed to discover that this is not a thread about Blofeld |  |
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| Bond vigilantes. on 10:52 - May 12 with 728 views | homer_123 |
I can't see Odd Job being allowed into the country. |  |
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| Bond vigilantes. on 10:53 - May 12 with 722 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:49 - May 12 by nrb1985 |
They are selling bonds because they don’t like the uncertainty of a possible change of government. |
Uppied your answer but don't these higher yields make a change more likely? Isn't that what did for Truss? Maybe that was short dated bonds? | |
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| Bond vigilantes. on 10:54 - May 12 with 720 views | nrb1985 |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:52 - May 12 by TheMoralMajority |
Very disappointed to discover that this is not a thread about Blofeld |
Was the only reason I logged in to be honest.
Any mention of Bloefeld is also a good opportunity to re read this - one of my favourite ever anecdotes;
https://www.independent.co.uk/ | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:56 - May 12 with 712 views | nrb1985 |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:53 - May 12 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Uppied your answer but don't these higher yields make a change more likely? Isn't that what did for Truss? Maybe that was short dated bonds? |
Very different context but yes, higher yields aren’t great for anyone - except savers.
Whatever people think of Starmer and Reeves, the markets quite like them. | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:58 - May 12 with 700 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:41 - May 12 by BanksterDebtSlave |
So you don't expect much in the way of deregulation in the financial sector once Nige is PM? For the avoidance of doubt these are genuine questions. |
I didn’t say I don’t expect it, he’s hardly a Europhile - just clarifying that it wouldn’t be beneficial to the wider City. It’s probably quite likely Farage would slash regulation to benefit a few of his backers, particularly in the murky Crypto world I would think, possibly lower capital requirements and limitations around remuneration (all speculation on my part).
Still can’t see Reform getting a majority, personally I think a coalition with the Tories is the only way they’d get control of Parliament. | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 11:07 - May 12 with 658 views | MattinLondon |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:54 - May 12 by nrb1985 |
Was the only reason I logged in to be honest.
Any mention of Bloefeld is also a good opportunity to re read this - one of my favourite ever anecdotes;
https://www.independent.co.uk/ |
What a lovely story. |  | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 11:14 - May 12 with 622 views | surreyblue |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:53 - May 12 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Uppied your answer but don't these higher yields make a change more likely? Isn't that what did for Truss? Maybe that was short dated bonds? |
That was long dated bonds - but driven by actions Truss took. Bond markets didn't like Truss or her economic plans, which drove significant bond yield increases. Those increases were wildly outsized versus history, which meant the risk models used by pension schemes to assess and appropriate level of borrowing within their risk management portfolios broke down causing a doom loop for a few days.
Context here is different. The bond market quite likes Starmer and Reeves. They have proven themselves to be financially responsible. Now they are reacting to the uncertainty that the plot to oust Starmer creates - effectively pricing in the potential for a Truss Mk II type event, whether of unfunded tax cuts for the rich under a reform govt or unfunded increase in spending under a harder-left labour leader. | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 11:29 - May 12 with 561 views | iamatractorboy |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:54 - May 12 by nrb1985 |
Was the only reason I logged in to be honest.
Any mention of Bloefeld is also a good opportunity to re read this - one of my favourite ever anecdotes;
https://www.independent.co.uk/ |
That is absolutely brilliant, can't believe I've never read that before. Thanks for sharing. I bloody love Roger Moore, what a lovely man he was. | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 11:42 - May 12 with 527 views | nrb1985 |
| Bond vigilantes. on 11:29 - May 12 by iamatractorboy |
That is absolutely brilliant, can't believe I've never read that before. Thanks for sharing. I bloody love Roger Moore, what a lovely man he was. |
Agreed - it is absolutely brilliant.
And still the best Bond in my book. | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 08:52 - May 13 with 268 views | Radlett_blue |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:49 - May 12 by nrb1985 |
They are selling bonds because they don’t like the uncertainty of a possible change of government. |
Indeed, and a more voter friendly set of policies, which invariably involves borrowing more money. UK governments (whether Labour or Tory) are too scared to put up income tax. |  |
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| Bond vigilantes. on 08:55 - May 13 with 262 views | Leaky |
| Bond vigilantes. on 10:54 - May 12 by nrb1985 |
Was the only reason I logged in to be honest.
Any mention of Bloefeld is also a good opportunity to re read this - one of my favourite ever anecdotes;
https://www.independent.co.uk/ |
Bloefeld + Oddjob doe's that = Bloejob |  | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 09:24 - May 13 with 227 views | Radlett_blue |
| Bond vigilantes. on 08:55 - May 13 by Leaky |
Bloefeld + Oddjob doe's that = Bloejob |
Henry Blofeld's father was at Eton with Ian Fleming & his name is supposed to have been the origin of the Bond villain. | |
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| Bond vigilantes. on 09:26 - May 13 with 210 views | nrb1985 |
| Bond vigilantes. on 09:24 - May 13 by Radlett_blue |
Henry Blofeld's father was at Eton with Ian Fleming & his name is supposed to have been the origin of the Bond villain. |
This is true.
Many of the Bond villains were named after people he didn't like.
Goldfinger is after an architect whose style Fleming hated! | | | |
| Bond vigilantes. on 09:32 - May 13 with 189 views | nrb1985 |
| Bond vigilantes. on 08:42 - May 13 by DJR |
The latest from the bond markets.
"UK bond yields fall after Streeting challenge to Starmer fails to materialise
UK government bond prices are rallying at the start of trading, pulling down borrowing costs.
Investors appear relieved that Sir Keir Starmer is holding onto power this morning, after a challenge from health secretary Wes Streeting failed to materialise."
Whilst this might be a temporary respite (and perhaps evidence of the short-termism that dominates the financial markets), it seems to me that a lame duck Starmer hanging on will only increase the prospects of a Reform victory at the next election, when I imagine the bond markets would go into panic mode, if not much earlier if it becomes clear Labour are doomed.
In my view, it would be better to take the temporary shock now of a change of leader if it improves the chances of there being no Reform victory and thus no greater shock then. And don't forget not all government debt needs funding at once.
But the Labour party certainly have got themselves into an mess when it comes to the bond markets because they are damned if they do and damned if they don't (change leader).
Of course, it may be that I am talking nonsense because I am not an expert in this area, but if I am there will no doubt be someone along to tell me that is the case.  [Post edited 13 May 8:48]
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Not sure you can say that the bond market is showing short termism here.
The front end of the bond curve, i.e. the shorter maturity gilts, have remained reasonably well anchored.
It's the longer duration bonds that have sold off because of concerns about what a new more left leaning fiscal regime will do to the UK's ability to pay down it's debt in the long run.
If Starmer wanted to really bring bond yields down he should be far bolder on Europe. He has nothing to lose now so may as well put deeper integration if not rejoining fully on the table. I'd vote for that! | | | |
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