| Premier League thoughts. 16:32 - May 13 with 928 views | dirtyboy |
Grab a cuppa.....
The dust is settling on the achievement of getting back to the Premier League at the first time of asking.
And I think, it's worth saying this, maybe we were all a little guilty of expecting this team to walk the league with the money spent.
There was a feeling, especially after relegation, that we’d drop back down, keep most of the group together, and simply be too strong for the Championship, but I don’t think it was ever quite that simple. The league may not have had a runaway Leicester/Leeds/Southampton, but I’m not convinced it was “poor” either.
If anything, I think the Championship was smarter.
Clubs are becoming much more savvy with managerial appointments. We’re seeing fewer of the same old names being in and out of poistions and more clubs appointing coaches with clear tactical ideas, strong technical knowledge, and a defined style of play. That makes the league harder.
You’re not just turning up against “organised Championship sides” anymore , you’re facing teams with proper structures, proper pressing and managers who can make life awkward with players who on paper are not at the same level.
Oxford are a good example. They finished 22nd and were relegated, but they still ended on 47 points, only one point behind Leicester, despite Leicester having far better players. Oxford’s home record was actually respectable too, 29 points from 23 home games. They weren’t bad, they were just operating on fine margins in a competitive league.
Then you look at the top end.
Coventry won the league with 95 points, 97 goals and a +52 goal difference.
We finished second with 84 points, 80 goals and a +33 goal difference.
Millwall were one point behind us on 83, Southampton and Middlesbrough both finished on 80, and Hull came sixth with 73. That is a properly compressed top six/top seven, not a league where second place was gifted to us.
Hellberg and Eckert look like two very good appointments, both playing exciting football and both getting their teams right to the top of the league. In a way, it’s probably similar to what McKenna did with us a couple of years ago, overachievement against budget, but not by accident. It’s the result of structure, coaching and clarity.
On the numbers, we were still very good. I’ve seen the Opta-type figures putting us right at the top. That figures to me on the eye test, we weren’t a bad side at all, but it was a different Ipswich to the one that blew teams away before.
McKenna was far more pragmatic this year. Less swashbuckling, less chaos, fewer games where we simply decided to outscore people. The emphasis seemed to shift towards controlling risk, limiting transitions, and not giving up the sort of chances that kill you over a long season. Our home record probably tells the story, 14 wins, 8 draws and just 1 defeat at Portman Road. We scored 43 and conceded only 17 at home. That is not “lucky promotion” form, that is a team that knows what it is doing.
Away from home we were less dominant, but still solid, 9 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, 37 scored and 30 conceded. Again, not spectacular, but controlled enough. Overall we were a team that became harder to beat, even if some of the excitement had gone.
Looking forward, the obvious question is, who do we need to be better than next season?
As things stand, Wolves and Burnley are already gone, and West Ham are the likely third casualty unless they can overhaul Spurs in the final two games. The current Premier League table has Spurs on 38 points, West Ham on 36, Burnley on 21 and Wolves on 18. Above that, Forest are on 43, Palace and Leeds are on 44, and Newcastle are on 46. That feels like the clubs we we need to be looking at (perhaps not Newcastle!)
I don’t for one second think Spurs will be in a relegation fight again next season if they survive. De Zerbi is an excellent coach, and Spurs still have enough individual quality to be much further up the table than this. He has come in late, in a mess, and even then they’ve picked up just enough to get out of jail, I think, never know with Spurse though lol!
What’s interesting, though, is the clamour by some Ipswich fans for the Sunderland style approach to recruitment.
I understand the logic, be bold, be athletic, recruit upside, don’t just buy “Premier League experience” for the sake of it.
However, from what I see, the warning is that Sunderland’s results appear to have run ahead of their underlying numbers. If they have outperformed expected points by around 10, as has been suggested, that doesn’t mean they’re bad, but it does mean there’s variance in there.
That’s the key point with expected points. They don’t predict the league perfectly, and football isn’t played on a spreadsheet, but over longer periods, big overperformance or underperformance usually tells you something.
It might be elite finishing, elite goalkeeping, set pieces, game state, luck, or all of the above. But if you’re building a survival model, you’d rather be the team whose performances support the points than the team relying on everything continuing to break your way.
The same works in reverse. Palace, for example, look close enough to the bottom group on actual points, but if their performances have been better than the table suggests, you’d expect them to pull away over time. That’s why it’s dangerous to only look at the league table and say, “they’re catchable.” Some teams are catchable because they’re genuinely poor. Others are only catchable because they’ve had a bad run of finishing, injuries or the variance due to the above.
So, being fairly unscientific about it, next season we probably need to be better than Coventry, Hull or Southampton, and one other.
That “one other” is the real battle.
It could be Sunderland if their numbers regress. It could be Forest if they lose key players or momentum. It could be Everton if finances and squad depth bite. It could be Bournemouth, Palace, Leeds or Fulham if they have a poor summer or a bad run.
Realistically, we need three teams to be worse than us, and one of those probably has to be an established Premier League side.
To stay up, I think the route is fairly clear.
We probably need something like 38 points.
Home: 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats = 25 points
Away: 3 wins, 4 draws, 12 defeats = 13 points
That gets you to 38.
It sounds simple, but the home record is the key. Seven home wins is a big ask, but it’s not ridiculous.
Realistically, who could we beat at home?
Coventry.
Hull or Southampton.
Forest.
Sunderland.
Possibly Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leeds or Fulham.
That’s the group. We don’t need to beat Arsenal, City, Liverpool or Chelsea at Portman Road to stay up. We need to consistently take points off the sides from roughly 10th downwards, and then nick the odd mad result somewhere else.
Last time in the Premier League, we drew with Chelsea, Fulham, Villa and Manchester United. Fine margins. A bit more quality, a bit more belief, a little more Premier League knowhow, and some of those draws can become wins. Likewise, some of the narrow defeats can become draws.
Recruitment will obviously be key!
We need more athleticism, more pace, more power, and probably more goals from midfield areas, that right side needs to contribute as well as the left.
We also need players who can survive without the ball, lots of running needed as there will be long spells where we're pinned in and where one lapse gets punished, as we know from our last visit!
I do think we’re better equipped this time.
The manager knows more. The club knows more. The players who remain will know more. The recruitment team has had another year of data, mistakes, learning and scouting.
.........And the fans will approach it differently too.....
Last time, there was a sense that we were all just happy to be there. Portman Road was positive, but there was also an acceptance that most weeks we might simply get tonked!
This time, I don’t think that attitude will be the same.
There should be more belief, not arrogance, we're way short of that, but belief should be allowed.
We’ve been there, we’ve taken the hits, we’ve regrouped, and we’ve come straight back. The next step is not to admire the Premier League. It’s to compete in it.
Survival won’t require miracles every week. It’ll require a good home record against the right sides, better game management, and a transfer window that gives McKenna a bit more physical and technical quality to turn fine margins our way.
Seven home wins, a handful of draws, and a few scruffy away results.
Then a European tour in 27/28.
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| Premier League thoughts. on 16:41 - May 13 with 833 views | Radlett_blue |
Great, thoughtful post.
As I see it, we need to recruit far better than 2 years ago, but this will involve more risk in each case i.e. we won't be buying largely known, very good youngish Championship players in the hope they can step up.
We will also need some different tactics. We were too easy to score against last season. We might need better defenders (Kipre will not be one of those) but also a different system, maybe 4-3-3 or wing backs (the latter would benefit Davis). |  |
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| Premier League thoughts. on 16:56 - May 13 with 744 views | dirtyboy |
| Premier League thoughts. on 16:41 - May 13 by Radlett_blue |
Great, thoughtful post.
As I see it, we need to recruit far better than 2 years ago, but this will involve more risk in each case i.e. we won't be buying largely known, very good youngish Championship players in the hope they can step up.
We will also need some different tactics. We were too easy to score against last season. We might need better defenders (Kipre will not be one of those) but also a different system, maybe 4-3-3 or wing backs (the latter would benefit Davis). |
Thanks, have been sitting on it a bit the past few days, wasn't going to post, but thought I would.
I know on the face of it, it looked like we went down without much fight last time, but if you take the top 6 that season, Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Newcastle, they all beat us by 3 goals or more. 16 conceded in 4 games to Newcastle and City.
We all know to ignore those games and it's picking up points elswhere which will make the difference.
The only other losses by more than 2 goals were to Spurs and West Ham.
There were 10 games which we lost by a single goal. That, in my mind, is a pretty slim margin.
Quite a few of those we went ahead in too (Brentford, Bournemouth, Fulham, Man Utd, Wolves, Chelsea)
So not massive thumping losses, really fine margins being punished.
I really think we'll be in with a shout of staying up. Not saying we will, but it'll be close and I think we'll have better go.
100% we're better geared up for it. | | | |
| Premier League thoughts. on 17:31 - May 13 with 625 views | Radlett_blue |
| Premier League thoughts. on 16:56 - May 13 by dirtyboy |
Thanks, have been sitting on it a bit the past few days, wasn't going to post, but thought I would.
I know on the face of it, it looked like we went down without much fight last time, but if you take the top 6 that season, Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Newcastle, they all beat us by 3 goals or more. 16 conceded in 4 games to Newcastle and City.
We all know to ignore those games and it's picking up points elswhere which will make the difference.
The only other losses by more than 2 goals were to Spurs and West Ham.
There were 10 games which we lost by a single goal. That, in my mind, is a pretty slim margin.
Quite a few of those we went ahead in too (Brentford, Bournemouth, Fulham, Man Utd, Wolves, Chelsea)
So not massive thumping losses, really fine margins being punished.
I really think we'll be in with a shout of staying up. Not saying we will, but it'll be close and I think we'll have better go.
100% we're better geared up for it. |
Agreed that the thumpings by the big clubs were near irrelevant, although they may have worsened morale. I hope McKenna sets us up differently in these games e.g. I went to Arsenal away & while we were defensive & didn't really look like scoring, we kept in the game at 1-0 & could have nicked a late equaliser.
The margins in most of the games against the middling clubs were small, but the pattern was very similar - Town very competitive for 60 minutes but pushed aside once the subs came on. More judicious use of subs (and a better bench!) might help. | |
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| Premier League thoughts. on 17:40 - May 13 with 574 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
Great post, although I think you are giving too much credence to Oxford's players over performing rather than Leicester just being totally sh it. |  |
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| Premier League thoughts. on 17:52 - May 13 with 504 views | burnbudgiesburn |
We took 2 points from the 4 games against fellow relegated sides, was very tough to survive doing that. |  | | |
| Premier League thoughts. on 17:57 - May 13 with 491 views | Radlett_blue |
| Premier League thoughts. on 17:52 - May 13 by burnbudgiesburn |
We took 2 points from the 4 games against fellow relegated sides, was very tough to survive doing that. |
If Hull go up, I hope we will exceed that total next season. Or, let Southampton go up but give them a 10 point deduction for next season. | |
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| Premier League thoughts. on 18:19 - May 13 with 416 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
Great post, enjoyed that. Got me all pumped up at the end there.
I have said on a couple of posts already that I was largely ok with lots of our performances last time we were in the Prem it was just so evident our personnel couldn't carry us through a game. I got faith in KM to keep us up with the right recruitment. |  |
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| Premier League thoughts. on 18:27 - May 13 with 399 views | TheBoyBlue |
My expectation is still relegation, but hoping we can make more of a fight of it. I fact anything similar to the first half of 24/25 repeated in the second half would be more like it. The second half of the season was so disappointing. We have better scouting networks, the training facilities should be a big plus now, we haven't got to expend so much money and effort on getting the ground upto scratch, etc.
However, as for what we will actually achieve is almost impossible to predict. We still don't know who is coming up with us from the play-offs, who will take the final relegation place. Who will we sign? Will we know much about them when we do sign them?
Therefore I am still enjoying the afterglow of promotion, the anticipation of the Premier League before it actually starts and hope I can enjoy the ride a bit more. [Post edited 13 May 20:59]
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| POST OF THE WEEK - but I found this a little sobering… on 18:40 - May 13 with 362 views | unstableblue |
… when you outlined the results we need for survival:
“We probably need something like 38 points.
Home: 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats = 25 points
Away: 3 wins, 4 draws, 12 defeats = 13 points
Realistically, who could we beat at home?:
Coventry.
Hull or Southampton.
Forest.
Sunderland.
Possibly Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leeds or Fulham.”
SEVEN WINS AT HOME! We managed one last season and 4 in total. 10 is quite a ramp up.
Comes back to the old ‘MUST WIN’ paradox, you need wins early, not when they’re mathematically essential. That Saints away game when they were quite poor, but so were we, was must win early in the campaign. And we needed one win from those strong home performances against Fulham and Villa.
I do think McKenna has learnt, the squad is better, and Pragmatic FC will be more suited.
We do need to be more clinical in transition and on the break. Delap, Ensico and Hutchinson would often run down rabbit holes.
As for who we can beat, think it will be interesting to see how Fulham, palace and Bournemouth get on with new managers, but they are well run with strong squads.
Coventry needs to be 2 wins.
All very exciting - COYFB |  |
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| POST OF THE WEEK - but I found this a little sobering… on 23:47 - May 13 with 97 views | Illinoisblue |
| POST OF THE WEEK - but I found this a little sobering… on 18:40 - May 13 by unstableblue |
… when you outlined the results we need for survival:
“We probably need something like 38 points.
Home: 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats = 25 points
Away: 3 wins, 4 draws, 12 defeats = 13 points
Realistically, who could we beat at home?:
Coventry.
Hull or Southampton.
Forest.
Sunderland.
Possibly Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leeds or Fulham.”
SEVEN WINS AT HOME! We managed one last season and 4 in total. 10 is quite a ramp up.
Comes back to the old ‘MUST WIN’ paradox, you need wins early, not when they’re mathematically essential. That Saints away game when they were quite poor, but so were we, was must win early in the campaign. And we needed one win from those strong home performances against Fulham and Villa.
I do think McKenna has learnt, the squad is better, and Pragmatic FC will be more suited.
We do need to be more clinical in transition and on the break. Delap, Ensico and Hutchinson would often run down rabbit holes.
As for who we can beat, think it will be interesting to see how Fulham, palace and Bournemouth get on with new managers, but they are well run with strong squads.
Coventry needs to be 2 wins.
All very exciting - COYFB |
We need to win 1 of every 3 games. It’s going to be very very difficult. |  |
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| Premier League thoughts. on 00:40 - May 14 with 51 views | Churchman |
This is an interesting, thought provoking post, most of which I agree with.
I don’t think our recruitment 24/25 was all bad. There were good signings and some not so good. How it felt from the outside was a bit scattergun as an approach resulting in a lopsided squad and areas of the team that couldn’t compete.
It needs to be better and I hope the recruitment team is stronger than last time. I believe we have a much better base to work from and the club far more settled, but we do need to get right those people we bring in.
Yes, it’ll be tough. Very tough, but all aspects of the club are in a better place than two years ago and that’s important. |  | | |
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