| Ukraine Latest 15:56 - Jul 6 with 3590 views | Kropotkin123 |
It's incredible right now what we are seeing.
If you are still following the news you'll have this context. But for those that aren't:
- Ukraine has been focusing heavily on energy infrastructure, particularly oil.
- There are fuel restrictions, massive queues for fuel, abandoned cars. It looks like the stuff from Zombie films where you see gridlock cars.
- Crimea has no real defense left
- Russia has been doing small scale attacks and provocations on NATO territories (hitting cables, aerial incursions, naval incursions, drone incursions).
- Poland and Ukraine have recently fallen out as Ukraine named something after a ww2 unit that performed genocide against poles. This unit was also important in Ukrainian liberation.
What is expected to come next:
- Russian farmers don't have the fuel to harvest food. They are saying their food that will harvest now will drop in August, and then be lost to mice.
- Russia may start struggling to transport what food it can move and the price of that food will spiral because of the rising cost of oil to transport it.
- Russia has 100 regions. Intelligence suggests Russia is planning on forcibly mobilizating 5000 men from each region. This is 500,000 men. They structure it like this to have disproportionately lower impact on their big cities like Moscow.
- Crimea and the western part of Occupied Kherson (Kherson Oblast) is becoming harder to maintain occupation. Russia have withdrawn some troops from positions they can't resupply. These positions don't provide Ukraine with tactical advantages, or Ukrainian civilians, so Ukraine hasn't attempted to reoccupy. It doesn't look like this will change soon, but who knows how this will change. Worth keeping an eye on as Russian society continues it's decline. How long can they divert resources to the warfront and away from food?
- The USA has provided intelligence that suggests Russia plan to attack Poland. This will not be an invasion of an army, but maybe stray drones hitting Polish land, small groups of saboteurs, etc. The idea being to further create a rift between Poland and Ukraine. |  |
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| Ukraine Latest on 18:35 - Jul 9 with 330 views | Kievthegreat |
| Ukraine Latest on 14:52 - Jul 9 by ArnoldMoorhen |
If Putin attacks a Baltic State, NATO takes Kaliningrad.
He won't, there will just be an increase in drone incursions and disposable agent fire bombing attacks, and the like. |
I agree he won't. If he was to try, God knows what he'd be able to gather in terms of forces. He can't weaken the front line in Ukraine and the forces on duty elsewhere are weakened in terms of manpower, but especially equipment. NATO in Europe has a real issue with a shooting engagement going beyond a few weeks before running out of critical ammo stocks, but I don't think Russian forces on the front would survive that long.
In a full throated confrontation I'd wager Russia's forces currently not in Ukraine would put up as much resistance as Gulf War Iraq.
Putin missed his window last year to get some pretty massive concessions from Ukraine. If he didn't get greedy, I think there could have been a deal to recognise all his occupations. Now he's stuck with a really crap hand after going all in. |  | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 18:45 - Jul 9 with 323 views | Kievthegreat |
| Ukraine Latest on 13:55 - Jul 9 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Thanks for the thread. We have a Ukrainian family living with us, so I keep up to date daily with Ukrainian Pravda, Ukrinform and EuroMaidan, as well as a couple of military analysis YouTube channels.
We are now in the extraordinary position where, although Zelensky can't say it publicly, it is to Ukraine's strategic advantage if the war doesn't end today.
The "long range sanctions" against the oil industry have now seen every single major oil refinery and processing plant in Russia hit.
The Ukrainian Magyar's Birds Squadron have turned their attention to the shadow fleet tankers hiding in the Sea of Azov, and are picking them off at will.
Putin has moved his personal yacht from St Petersburg, under escort from two Navy warships, because it isn't safe there. (This use of military resources (and fuel) will play terribly with the MilBloggers) It was off the coast of Norway heading for the Arctic Circle the last report I saw.
And crucially, as posts in this thread demonstrate, the situation in Crimea has changed beyond all recognition.
Ukrainian tactics in the South, and towards Crimea have shifted noticeably. In Zaporhizia and the other Southern Oblasts where the front is most active, the Ukrainians now sacrifice land as the Russians sacrifice vast numbers of men to gain it. The Ukrainian strategy is to kill or incapacitate more than 1000 Russians a day, which is above the number at which the Russian military can (force ahoy) recruit, (haphazardly) train and (poorly) equip new soldiers.
The Ukrainians then periodically attack the now overstretched new positions held by the Russians and take them back.
In Crimea we have seen a shift towards a siege strategy. Ukraine has treated Crimea as a giant moated Medieval Castle. They have destroyed every (draw)bridge in and out and are able to hit any supply corridors Russia uses in contested regions of Ukraine. Russia as a whole is suffering fuel shortages, but Crimea is exponentially worse off, and the soldiers there are no longer being re-supplied.
So Zelensky is able to make his joke about not going to Moscow because he knows that the greatest weapon that Ukraine has right now is time. Eventually the Crimea garrison will have to fully withdraw, and the seemingly impossible result is becoming possible:
Ukraine could restore it's 2014 borders.
That is where the momentum is currently headed.
And that is before the possibility of an uprising of any kind within Russia (whether a groundswell of public anger or a coup from the Generals) which could swiftly lead to a negotiated peace.
My biggest concern is that we could be about to witness a humanitarian catastrophe in Russia itself if the war continues. There is no diesel for farm machinery and harvest is coming. |
I would love Ukraine to take back Crimea. It would be the ultimate humiliation of Putin and watching the Black Sea become NATO/Ukraine's lake would be glorious.
Alas I think it's premature. Crimea is in a state and it's clear the campaign is severely hampering logistics. I think there are 2 problems with Crimea falling just yet. Firstly that the Kerch Bridge is still open. Reduced capacity on both road and rail crossings, but still active. Destroy that bridge while keeping up pressure in Occupied Kherson road and railway lines, then Russia will be truly snookered.
The other obstacle is that Russia will never just leave Crimea unless Ukraine puts boots on the ground. That likely means making a bridgehead over the Dnieper from Kherson province. Even with Russia weakened logistically, that would be a huge undertaking and would cost a lot of materiel and lives, commodities that Ukraine doesn't have in abundance.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong and that you and the family staying with you laugh in my face, but I think it's a bridge too far. | | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 22:13 - Jul 9 with 218 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Ukraine Latest on 13:55 - Jul 9 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Thanks for the thread. We have a Ukrainian family living with us, so I keep up to date daily with Ukrainian Pravda, Ukrinform and EuroMaidan, as well as a couple of military analysis YouTube channels.
We are now in the extraordinary position where, although Zelensky can't say it publicly, it is to Ukraine's strategic advantage if the war doesn't end today.
The "long range sanctions" against the oil industry have now seen every single major oil refinery and processing plant in Russia hit.
The Ukrainian Magyar's Birds Squadron have turned their attention to the shadow fleet tankers hiding in the Sea of Azov, and are picking them off at will.
Putin has moved his personal yacht from St Petersburg, under escort from two Navy warships, because it isn't safe there. (This use of military resources (and fuel) will play terribly with the MilBloggers) It was off the coast of Norway heading for the Arctic Circle the last report I saw.
And crucially, as posts in this thread demonstrate, the situation in Crimea has changed beyond all recognition.
Ukrainian tactics in the South, and towards Crimea have shifted noticeably. In Zaporhizia and the other Southern Oblasts where the front is most active, the Ukrainians now sacrifice land as the Russians sacrifice vast numbers of men to gain it. The Ukrainian strategy is to kill or incapacitate more than 1000 Russians a day, which is above the number at which the Russian military can (force ahoy) recruit, (haphazardly) train and (poorly) equip new soldiers.
The Ukrainians then periodically attack the now overstretched new positions held by the Russians and take them back.
In Crimea we have seen a shift towards a siege strategy. Ukraine has treated Crimea as a giant moated Medieval Castle. They have destroyed every (draw)bridge in and out and are able to hit any supply corridors Russia uses in contested regions of Ukraine. Russia as a whole is suffering fuel shortages, but Crimea is exponentially worse off, and the soldiers there are no longer being re-supplied.
So Zelensky is able to make his joke about not going to Moscow because he knows that the greatest weapon that Ukraine has right now is time. Eventually the Crimea garrison will have to fully withdraw, and the seemingly impossible result is becoming possible:
Ukraine could restore it's 2014 borders.
That is where the momentum is currently headed.
And that is before the possibility of an uprising of any kind within Russia (whether a groundswell of public anger or a coup from the Generals) which could swiftly lead to a negotiated peace.
My biggest concern is that we could be about to witness a humanitarian catastrophe in Russia itself if the war continues. There is no diesel for farm machinery and harvest is coming. |
An illuminating article on the Siege of Crimea:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/inte |  | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 23:06 - Jul 9 with 178 views | Churchman |
I recommend a read of this. It neatly summarises the bind Russia is in at the moment. As a sub story it also describes how America has weakened its position.
https://www.persuasion.communi |  | | |
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