| Ukraine Latest 15:56 - Jul 6 with 4142 views | Kropotkin123 |
It's incredible right now what we are seeing.
If you are still following the news you'll have this context. But for those that aren't:
- Ukraine has been focusing heavily on energy infrastructure, particularly oil.
- There are fuel restrictions, massive queues for fuel, abandoned cars. It looks like the stuff from Zombie films where you see gridlock cars.
- Crimea has no real defense left
- Russia has been doing small scale attacks and provocations on NATO territories (hitting cables, aerial incursions, naval incursions, drone incursions).
- Poland and Ukraine have recently fallen out as Ukraine named something after a ww2 unit that performed genocide against poles. This unit was also important in Ukrainian liberation.
What is expected to come next:
- Russian farmers don't have the fuel to harvest food. They are saying their food that will harvest now will drop in August, and then be lost to mice.
- Russia may start struggling to transport what food it can move and the price of that food will spiral because of the rising cost of oil to transport it.
- Russia has 100 regions. Intelligence suggests Russia is planning on forcibly mobilizating 5000 men from each region. This is 500,000 men. They structure it like this to have disproportionately lower impact on their big cities like Moscow.
- Crimea and the western part of Occupied Kherson (Kherson Oblast) is becoming harder to maintain occupation. Russia have withdrawn some troops from positions they can't resupply. These positions don't provide Ukraine with tactical advantages, or Ukrainian civilians, so Ukraine hasn't attempted to reoccupy. It doesn't look like this will change soon, but who knows how this will change. Worth keeping an eye on as Russian society continues it's decline. How long can they divert resources to the warfront and away from food?
- The USA has provided intelligence that suggests Russia plan to attack Poland. This will not be an invasion of an army, but maybe stray drones hitting Polish land, small groups of saboteurs, etc. The idea being to further create a rift between Poland and Ukraine. |  |
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| Ukraine Latest on 16:05 - Jul 6 with 3449 views | Steve_M |
The other thing still happening is that Russia continues to target Ukrainian cities with heavy attacks that are causing regular casualties. Ukraine have run out of interceptor missiles because the US spaffed them up the wall in the Gulf.
The impact on the Russian population is important, even an authoritarian state can't hide that and this can still only end when Russia stops attacking - maybe that needs Putin to drink some tea or fall out of a window but the conditions for that are probably greater than for a while. |  |
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| Ukraine Latest on 16:26 - Jul 6 with 3306 views | StokieBlue |
| Ukraine Latest on 16:05 - Jul 6 by Steve_M |
The other thing still happening is that Russia continues to target Ukrainian cities with heavy attacks that are causing regular casualties. Ukraine have run out of interceptor missiles because the US spaffed them up the wall in the Gulf.
The impact on the Russian population is important, even an authoritarian state can't hide that and this can still only end when Russia stops attacking - maybe that needs Putin to drink some tea or fall out of a window but the conditions for that are probably greater than for a while. |
St. Petersburg is being hit fairly regularly now by the Ukrainians and apparently the airport is regularly closed.
They might try and hide the conscription by targeting the rural areas but when drones are hitting your largest cities it's going to be harder to hide what's really going on.
Whether that is enough to make any difference is highly debatable.
SB |  |
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| Ukraine Latest on 18:04 - Jul 6 with 3114 views | Guthrum |
| Ukraine Latest on 16:26 - Jul 6 by StokieBlue |
St. Petersburg is being hit fairly regularly now by the Ukrainians and apparently the airport is regularly closed.
They might try and hide the conscription by targeting the rural areas but when drones are hitting your largest cities it's going to be harder to hide what's really going on.
Whether that is enough to make any difference is highly debatable.
SB |
Which is why the Ukrainians are doing it. Clouds of black smoke from burning refinieries and fuel depots on the outskirts of Moscow and St Petersburg are unhideable. |  |
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| Ukraine Latest on 18:13 - Jul 6 with 3060 views | djgooder |
Thanks for the summary. I had followed it little since Iran (and even less since the World Cup 😕).
I have a Russian wife so don’t generally wish to discuss it at home. Even though she knows what has happened is horrible it is still unpleasant for her. |  | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 18:26 - Jul 6 with 2995 views | Mark |
It seems things are moving in Ukraine's favour, but I fully expect Russia to hit more residential areas as a result. So many people are dying needlessly and having their lives destroyed. I follow the news in Ukraine every day and we should never forget Europe is under attack. |  | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 08:53 - Jul 7 with 2620 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
The fuel crisis is so bad Russia are looking at banning diesel exports which is also a vital source of war funding, and they are already rationing fuel to prioritise the military. The industry estimates Russian oil and gas production is down by between 30% and 40% (from a base much lower than pre invasion).
This isn’t infrastructure that Russia can quickly (or cheaply) replace, and given Venezuela now fall under western influence, and Iranian exports still severely disrupted - it’s going to be hard for Russia to secure external sources. Hard to see this not putting pressure on Putin to do a deal or face increasing domestic unpopularity. |  | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 15:14 - Jul 8 with 2364 views | Kropotkin123 |
Visual context for the progress in Crimea. This shows the difference in lights between January and July
It's worth noting that these aren't blackouts, they aren't going to come back online quickly.
Big Update:
Ukraine hit the Omsk refinery. Omsk won't grab the media attention like a hit on Moscow's but it is significant for two main reasons.
1. It is their biggest. Twice as big as Moscow. It account for around 10%
2. It was hit before, but in a creative, yet limited way, not with precision drones. The reason for this is it is around 1300km from Ukraine. Hitting this with drones is a massive advancement. When they were asked - You can strike this distance now, they said no, 3400km. That's a third of the way into Russia and puts pretty much all current offensive targets targets in range.
The defence around Omsk was merely Kalashnikovs. They aren't going to be able to stop repeated attacks. Even if they did try to pivot some modern defensive systems there, there is a good chance Ukraine can take them out before they become operational.
Ukraine isn't having all their own way. We really need to help them to get Patriot missiles. They are struggling to repel ballistic missiles, and took the biggest monthly civilian losses of the war. | |
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| Ukraine Latest on 16:10 - Jul 8 with 2214 views | Churchman |
Thank you for this and the other posts. It’s a fascinating situation that nobody could have predicted before Russia launched its grab over 4 years ago. Most people thought it’d be over in days, me included. Attached is an interesting article on the dynamics. Worth a read because whether it proves right or wrong, the dynamics of power are changing.
https://theconversation.com/pu
So here we are. Russia’s advance has largely stalled. Losses of men? Not really a concern to Putin. He doesn’t care and cannon fodder is easily come by. But not forever. He’s emptied the prisons and has tapped eastern Russia - the people from there don’t count, but the losses are eye watering.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/
Sustainable? Well Putin controls the media so short term yes, but for how much longer? Ukraine is also suffering huge losses - a war of attrition.
The game changer has been Ukraine’s resilience and its innovation with drones. The technology is going through the roof and is changing the face of war. Firing at Moscow and St Petersburg in addition to attacking oil infrastructure is something Putin cannot hide. Even the most rabid Putin supporter cannot ignore it.
Crimea? It doesn’t need to spill blood invading it. Cut it off. It only has the large bridge to go and the occupants will have nowhere to go.
So what would I do if I was Putin? Invade Poland? A possible but they need to do it quickly. Nuke Kiev? It’s using ballistic missiles and it’s only a short step to wiping it off the planet. The trouble is China. They won’t let him do that.
The key I think is Trump. He’s obviously in favour of Russia as he sees a deal there. But has that gone up in smoke? Is he somebody that just likes winners? If so, he might turn against his mate Vlad. Who knows?
One thing is clear. Every month that goes by strengthens European countries hand, with the exception of U.K. and Spain both of whom do not see defence as any sort of priority.
The world is changing, all due to a nutter in Moscow, another nutter in the White House and a country whose resistance is truly extraordinary. They deserve Europe’s support. |  | | |
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| Ukraine Latest on 16:34 - Jul 8 with 2131 views | hype313 |
Putin is now incredibly paranoid, has over 800 security staff around him, all of whom have cameras in thier homes to make sure they don't rebell, more and more lookalikes, he doesn't even post videos with his inner circle as he doesn't want them knowing where he is.
It's starting to resemble Hitlers final days, when paranoia got the better of him. |  |
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| Ukraine Latest on 16:49 - Jul 8 with 2091 views | mellowblue |
| Ukraine Latest on 16:10 - Jul 8 by Churchman |
Thank you for this and the other posts. It’s a fascinating situation that nobody could have predicted before Russia launched its grab over 4 years ago. Most people thought it’d be over in days, me included. Attached is an interesting article on the dynamics. Worth a read because whether it proves right or wrong, the dynamics of power are changing.
https://theconversation.com/pu
So here we are. Russia’s advance has largely stalled. Losses of men? Not really a concern to Putin. He doesn’t care and cannon fodder is easily come by. But not forever. He’s emptied the prisons and has tapped eastern Russia - the people from there don’t count, but the losses are eye watering.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/
Sustainable? Well Putin controls the media so short term yes, but for how much longer? Ukraine is also suffering huge losses - a war of attrition.
The game changer has been Ukraine’s resilience and its innovation with drones. The technology is going through the roof and is changing the face of war. Firing at Moscow and St Petersburg in addition to attacking oil infrastructure is something Putin cannot hide. Even the most rabid Putin supporter cannot ignore it.
Crimea? It doesn’t need to spill blood invading it. Cut it off. It only has the large bridge to go and the occupants will have nowhere to go.
So what would I do if I was Putin? Invade Poland? A possible but they need to do it quickly. Nuke Kiev? It’s using ballistic missiles and it’s only a short step to wiping it off the planet. The trouble is China. They won’t let him do that.
The key I think is Trump. He’s obviously in favour of Russia as he sees a deal there. But has that gone up in smoke? Is he somebody that just likes winners? If so, he might turn against his mate Vlad. Who knows?
One thing is clear. Every month that goes by strengthens European countries hand, with the exception of U.K. and Spain both of whom do not see defence as any sort of priority.
The world is changing, all due to a nutter in Moscow, another nutter in the White House and a country whose resistance is truly extraordinary. They deserve Europe’s support. |
The days of Macron/ Starmer peace attempts are long gone. Unfortunately there is absolutely no advantage for European countries to help negotiate a peace deal. With the new cold war, Baltic states feeling threatened, Trump reducing the US effort in NATO etc, Europe needs Russia completely weakened for their own safeguarding with preferably Putin removed from power internally. If it takes a few more years of stalemate war so be it. Real pity for a generation of young Ukrainian and Russian men who are being maimed and killed on a daily basis. | | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 17:10 - Jul 8 with 2037 views | Churchman |
| Ukraine Latest on 16:49 - Jul 8 by mellowblue |
The days of Macron/ Starmer peace attempts are long gone. Unfortunately there is absolutely no advantage for European countries to help negotiate a peace deal. With the new cold war, Baltic states feeling threatened, Trump reducing the US effort in NATO etc, Europe needs Russia completely weakened for their own safeguarding with preferably Putin removed from power internally. If it takes a few more years of stalemate war so be it. Real pity for a generation of young Ukrainian and Russian men who are being maimed and killed on a daily basis. |
Germany, France along with Scandinavia are crucial as is the speed Poland is rearming. It needs to. Russia still has a huge military and of course can threaten with nuclear. But time is now against Putin unless he wins Ukraine, is given it by Trump or a time buying peace deal that gives them to rebuild.
I don’t see how the attrition war can last any length of time, but I never thought it could last this long.
Give Ukraine what it needs to fight off Russia. Come to some sort of deal and strengthen European military to completely dissuade Putin for the immediate future in the peace time before Russia tries again. One thing always overestimated is the Russian economy. It’s large and great for fossil fuels and resources (which is why Trump is interested in a deal), but not sufficient to keep this up forever.
Economics always wins out. It’s a fundamental reason why the Kaiser and later Hitler lost. The Nazis were bankrupt by 1941. | | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 17:17 - Jul 8 with 2022 views | Kievthegreat |
| Ukraine Latest on 16:10 - Jul 8 by Churchman |
Thank you for this and the other posts. It’s a fascinating situation that nobody could have predicted before Russia launched its grab over 4 years ago. Most people thought it’d be over in days, me included. Attached is an interesting article on the dynamics. Worth a read because whether it proves right or wrong, the dynamics of power are changing.
https://theconversation.com/pu
So here we are. Russia’s advance has largely stalled. Losses of men? Not really a concern to Putin. He doesn’t care and cannon fodder is easily come by. But not forever. He’s emptied the prisons and has tapped eastern Russia - the people from there don’t count, but the losses are eye watering.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/
Sustainable? Well Putin controls the media so short term yes, but for how much longer? Ukraine is also suffering huge losses - a war of attrition.
The game changer has been Ukraine’s resilience and its innovation with drones. The technology is going through the roof and is changing the face of war. Firing at Moscow and St Petersburg in addition to attacking oil infrastructure is something Putin cannot hide. Even the most rabid Putin supporter cannot ignore it.
Crimea? It doesn’t need to spill blood invading it. Cut it off. It only has the large bridge to go and the occupants will have nowhere to go.
So what would I do if I was Putin? Invade Poland? A possible but they need to do it quickly. Nuke Kiev? It’s using ballistic missiles and it’s only a short step to wiping it off the planet. The trouble is China. They won’t let him do that.
The key I think is Trump. He’s obviously in favour of Russia as he sees a deal there. But has that gone up in smoke? Is he somebody that just likes winners? If so, he might turn against his mate Vlad. Who knows?
One thing is clear. Every month that goes by strengthens European countries hand, with the exception of U.K. and Spain both of whom do not see defence as any sort of priority.
The world is changing, all due to a nutter in Moscow, another nutter in the White House and a country whose resistance is truly extraordinary. They deserve Europe’s support. |
Putin attacking Poland at this point would be ludicrously desperate. Poland have the biggest army in Europe besides Russia and Ukraine. Plus, unless it's a quick knockout blow (which given the abysmal failure in Ukraine is far fetched against a NATO country), he'd open up a frontline 1000s miles long and if he can't open up a corridor to Kaliningrad in the first week, would create an untenable situation.
Baltics is more plausible because Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia would be easier to overrun, but similar situation again, if he fails to link up with Kaliningrad, it's a strategic disaster.
Although your assessment of UK and Spain not taking it seriously is a bit off the mark, but not entirely wrong. The UK is still spending more in GDP terms than 17 other European member countries and significantly outspends countries like France. Spain is closer to France in terms of GDP spend than France is to us. The UK is however trying to do it on the cheap in the short term and is pouring a lot of spend into things like GCAP which won't enter service for a decade. They're clearly banking on it being a big export winner given the shift away from America (assuming F47 or whatever comes next is even exported) and the collapse of the Franco German project, leaves it as the only 6th gen option for most European countries and likely Canada too.
https://www.nato.int/content/d |  | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 17:55 - Jul 8 with 1929 views | BlueNomad |
The weekly Battleground podcast is very good. |  | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 17:57 - Jul 8 with 1922 views | Perublue |
On the Crimea light photos .. obviously January and July are going to be different,I’m not sure how much can be taken from that.
Apart from that loving your work [Post edited 8 Jul 17:58]
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| Ukraine Latest on 18:05 - Jul 8 with 1886 views | Churchman |
| Ukraine Latest on 17:57 - Jul 8 by Perublue |
On the Crimea light photos .. obviously January and July are going to be different,I’m not sure how much can be taken from that.
Apart from that loving your work [Post edited 8 Jul 17:58]
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Not much from that, but you can from the petrol queues and that there’s only one way in and one way out and if you are a driver, best not to look up with the drone activity.
I suspect holiday bookings for Crimea might be a little down this year. | | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 18:18 - Jul 8 with 1847 views | Perublue |
| Ukraine Latest on 18:05 - Jul 8 by Churchman |
Not much from that, but you can from the petrol queues and that there’s only one way in and one way out and if you are a driver, best not to look up with the drone activity.
I suspect holiday bookings for Crimea might be a little down this year. |
Much like Dubai,Abu Dhabi,etc | |
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| Ukraine Latest on 18:26 - Jul 8 with 1824 views | EdwardStone |
| Ukraine Latest on 17:55 - Jul 8 by BlueNomad |
The weekly Battleground podcast is very good. |
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_
This is my go-to for excellent coverage by people who really seem to know what they are talking about
Highly recommended |  | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 18:32 - Jul 8 with 1802 views | Perublue |
Oh I got a personalised/own name penis beaker off that site. | |
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| Ukraine Latest on 18:40 - Jul 8 with 1766 views | Perublue |
Putin to penis beakers in less than one page I hang my head in shame and leave the thread. | |
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| Ukraine Latest on 01:47 - Jul 9 with 1310 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Ukraine Latest on 17:57 - Jul 8 by Perublue |
On the Crimea light photos .. obviously January and July are going to be different,I’m not sure how much can be taken from that.
Apart from that loving your work [Post edited 8 Jul 17:58]
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I looked back personally to the previous July and it is still a big difference, though it does highlight the seasonal difference that you suggested.
This is from 01-July-2025
Update
- US gave Ukraine the licence to produce Patriot missiles. Although this is a hugely significant change for the defence against ballistic missiles, it will take time to get production going. [Post edited 9 Jul 1:48]
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| Ukraine Latest on 10:47 - Jul 9 with 1060 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Ukraine Latest on 01:47 - Jul 9 by Kropotkin123 |
I looked back personally to the previous July and it is still a big difference, though it does highlight the seasonal difference that you suggested.
This is from 01-July-2025
Update
- US gave Ukraine the licence to produce Patriot missiles. Although this is a hugely significant change for the defence against ballistic missiles, it will take time to get production going. [Post edited 9 Jul 1:48]
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If they can produce them in volume it will also be a crucial source of revenue for Ukraine since the Gulf states have used a huge amount of their inventory (incidentally it looks like some of the damage sustained there from Iran may be worse than they reported - I.e to downplay fears around tourism and viability as a commercial centre). Ukraine have already been selling their lower tech anti missile defences and training to those states. [Post edited 9 Jul 10:48]
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| Ukraine Latest on 13:55 - Jul 9 with 948 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
Thanks for the thread. We have a Ukrainian family living with us, so I keep up to date daily with Ukrainian Pravda, Ukrinform and EuroMaidan, as well as a couple of military analysis YouTube channels.
We are now in the extraordinary position where, although Zelensky can't say it publicly, it is to Ukraine's strategic advantage if the war doesn't end today.
The "long range sanctions" against the oil industry have now seen every single major oil refinery and processing plant in Russia hit.
The Ukrainian Magyar's Birds Squadron have turned their attention to the shadow fleet tankers hiding in the Sea of Azov, and are picking them off at will.
Putin has moved his personal yacht from St Petersburg, under escort from two Navy warships, because it isn't safe there. (This use of military resources (and fuel) will play terribly with the MilBloggers) It was off the coast of Norway heading for the Arctic Circle the last report I saw.
And crucially, as posts in this thread demonstrate, the situation in Crimea has changed beyond all recognition.
Ukrainian tactics in the South, and towards Crimea have shifted noticeably. In Zaporhizia and the other Southern Oblasts where the front is most active, the Ukrainians now sacrifice land as the Russians sacrifice vast numbers of men to gain it. The Ukrainian strategy is to kill or incapacitate more than 1000 Russians a day, which is above the number at which the Russian military can (force ahoy) recruit, (haphazardly) train and (poorly) equip new soldiers.
The Ukrainians then periodically attack the now overstretched new positions held by the Russians and take them back.
In Crimea we have seen a shift towards a siege strategy. Ukraine has treated Crimea as a giant moated Medieval Castle. They have destroyed every (draw)bridge in and out and are able to hit any supply corridors Russia uses in contested regions of Ukraine. Russia as a whole is suffering fuel shortages, but Crimea is exponentially worse off, and the soldiers there are no longer being re-supplied.
So Zelensky is able to make his joke about not going to Moscow because he knows that the greatest weapon that Ukraine has right now is time. Eventually the Crimea garrison will have to fully withdraw, and the seemingly impossible result is becoming possible:
Ukraine could restore it's 2014 borders.
That is where the momentum is currently headed.
And that is before the possibility of an uprising of any kind within Russia (whether a groundswell of public anger or a coup from the Generals) which could swiftly lead to a negotiated peace.
My biggest concern is that we could be about to witness a humanitarian catastrophe in Russia itself if the war continues. There is no diesel for farm machinery and harvest is coming. | | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 14:41 - Jul 9 with 870 views | EdwardStone |
Genuinely, the sooner we can get Ukraine into NATO and EU the better
Brave as Lions, work like Trojans and clever as can be....they will be a major asset to both organisations
I was thinking that we could swap them for Hungary, but now Orban has faded away ... maybe not | | | |
| Ukraine Latest on 14:52 - Jul 9 with 855 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Ukraine Latest on 17:17 - Jul 8 by Kievthegreat |
Putin attacking Poland at this point would be ludicrously desperate. Poland have the biggest army in Europe besides Russia and Ukraine. Plus, unless it's a quick knockout blow (which given the abysmal failure in Ukraine is far fetched against a NATO country), he'd open up a frontline 1000s miles long and if he can't open up a corridor to Kaliningrad in the first week, would create an untenable situation.
Baltics is more plausible because Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia would be easier to overrun, but similar situation again, if he fails to link up with Kaliningrad, it's a strategic disaster.
Although your assessment of UK and Spain not taking it seriously is a bit off the mark, but not entirely wrong. The UK is still spending more in GDP terms than 17 other European member countries and significantly outspends countries like France. Spain is closer to France in terms of GDP spend than France is to us. The UK is however trying to do it on the cheap in the short term and is pouring a lot of spend into things like GCAP which won't enter service for a decade. They're clearly banking on it being a big export winner given the shift away from America (assuming F47 or whatever comes next is even exported) and the collapse of the Franco German project, leaves it as the only 6th gen option for most European countries and likely Canada too.
https://www.nato.int/content/d |
If Putin attacks a Baltic State, NATO takes Kaliningrad.
He won't, there will just be an increase in drone incursions and disposable agent fire bombing attacks, and the like. | | | |
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