| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? 01:31 - Sep 15 with 863 views | Kropotkin123 |
Recent Escalations
• A train that was carrying diplomats was targeted on the Polish border.
• This month, Russian drones entered Moldova
• This month, Russia sent a Shahed drone 50km into Romanian airspace.
• In August, Drones with explosives were found in Leipzig, which Germany attributed to Russia.
• In August, Romania had to scramble military jets to destroy a Russian naval drone.
• In May, a drone hit a Romanian apartment.
This is all after intelligence said Russia were planning escalations against NATO.
Reactions
• Trump doesn't want Zelensky hitting diesel targets (the reason for the increase in prices, nothing to do with his war on Iran)
• Trump's diplomats want Ukraine to give up the Donbas, so Russia can end the war.
• Some think the train attack was a deliberate attempt to kill diplomats
• Some think it is to intimidate people from visiting and supporting
Options on how to Respond
• Same old, same old. Promise more sanctions, promise more money, close more cultural centres.
• Commit European aircrafts to defending Ukrainian airspace. Russia wants to mobilize 500,000-600,000 more solders through forced conscription. This would give them an easy excuse to do that with more unity from their population.
• Move European defences closer to the borders to protect against incursions, overlapping into Ukraine to give them more defensive capabilities. I agree with this suggestion.
What do you think? [Post edited 15 Sep 2:08]
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| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 07:53 - Sep 15 with 644 views | MattinLondon |
Can this act be seen as a sign of increased desperation by Russia? |  | | |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 08:49 - Sep 15 with 595 views | Guthrum |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 07:53 - Sep 15 by MattinLondon |
Can this act be seen as a sign of increased desperation by Russia? |
If Steve Rosenberg's digests of the Russian newspapers are anything to go by, the fuel war is making things visibly uncomfortable (for the first time) in Moscow and St Petersburg, the most important and influential parts of Russia. Desperation is putting it much too strongly, Putin has a fair bit of leeway yet. However, there is the beginnings of a risk to stability and a change in public attitude, something he cannot allow to develop too far.
It seems likely that Putin (tho not a fool) still thinks Russia can win the war, or at least end it on terms very favourable to them*. So it is worth trying to frighten off Ukraine's European backers and test Trump's commitment to NATO. He's recently lost an ally in Orban, so is looking to tilt other elections in favour of Moscow-friendly parties.
The traditional sabre-rattle of alluding to nuclear weapons isn't that effective. It's not something you can show a little of, supposedly "by accident", like drone incursions. It's pretty much wholesale mutual destruction or nothing (or, at least, a very slippery slope in that direction). Minor prodding and a bit of deniable(ish) covert action allows a lot more flexibility in terms of the response provoked, while still creating a good deal of alarm.
* He is certainly correct in that Ukraine is not, as things stand, capable of driving the Russians out of post-2022 occupied territory, let alone the Donbas or Crimea. |  |
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| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 08:52 - Sep 15 with 579 views | Guthrum |
Other than better self-defence (including internal intelligence/security), I'm not sure it needs a response. After all, it is an indication that what is already being done is having an effect.
Putin wants the West to have a more direct entanglement in Ukraine, as it would allow him to exert more direct pressure against that country's backers. We should not be giving him the satisfaction. | |
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| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 09:15 - Sep 15 with 543 views | bsw72 |
Small point of order, if Russia had targetted the train carrying the diplomats, they would have hit it - more likely they deliberately targetted the following train as a clear sign to deter foreign diplomats travelling to and from Romania without the political fallout of high profile casualties . . . |  | | |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? (n/t) on 09:21 - Sep 15 with 528 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 07:53 - Sep 15 by MattinLondon |
Can this act be seen as a sign of increased desperation by Russia? |
A wider conscription in Russia would be fairly controversial. Rosenberg said domestic support for the war was dropping as the strikes on Russian soil brought home the reality. The only way Putin can continue to find more manpower without protests is to keep people scared of the ‘NATO boogey man’.
[Post edited 15 Sep 9:24]
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| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 09:29 - Sep 15 with 504 views | OldFart71 |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 08:52 - Sep 15 by Guthrum |
Other than better self-defence (including internal intelligence/security), I'm not sure it needs a response. After all, it is an indication that what is already being done is having an effect.
Putin wants the West to have a more direct entanglement in Ukraine, as it would allow him to exert more direct pressure against that country's backers. We should not be giving him the satisfaction. |
I think if there had been more done by NATO when Russia first invaded Ukraine maybe they wouldn't have gone in like they did.
Ukraine gained independence due to the collapse of Russia.
Many of these oligarchs became rich by getting their hands on oil and suchlike for next to nothing.
In fact Roman Abramovich was basically given the money to buy Sjbneft in a type of lottery where purely by chance his ticket was drawn out.
I have been to a couple of places in Ukraine. Yalta is quite grey, probably typically Russian. But Odessa was very Western like with cafe's and designer shops.
For the people of Ukraine I understand their need to remain independent. | | | |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 09:35 - Sep 15 with 486 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 09:29 - Sep 15 by OldFart71 |
I think if there had been more done by NATO when Russia first invaded Ukraine maybe they wouldn't have gone in like they did.
Ukraine gained independence due to the collapse of Russia.
Many of these oligarchs became rich by getting their hands on oil and suchlike for next to nothing.
In fact Roman Abramovich was basically given the money to buy Sjbneft in a type of lottery where purely by chance his ticket was drawn out.
I have been to a couple of places in Ukraine. Yalta is quite grey, probably typically Russian. But Odessa was very Western like with cafe's and designer shops.
For the people of Ukraine I understand their need to remain independent. |
Interesting place to visit!
“For the people of Ukraine I understand their need to remain independent.”
And of course they have good reason to, given that the Russian communists stole their grain causing the death of millions in the Holomodor. | | | |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 09:39 - Sep 15 with 476 views | Guthrum |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 09:15 - Sep 15 by bsw72 |
Small point of order, if Russia had targetted the train carrying the diplomats, they would have hit it - more likely they deliberately targetted the following train as a clear sign to deter foreign diplomats travelling to and from Romania without the political fallout of high profile casualties . . . |
That's not strictly true. It would have required very good, live intelligence to identify which was the correct train. Plus the prominent individuals seem to have been distributed across more than one train*.
Also, the drone hit the engine, making the likelihood of casualties among passengers quite low.
In any case, they weren't diplomats, but a selection of advisors/interested parties, having no official status in their countries of origin. It would have created a storm, but not a causus belli.
* Accounts by some of them refer to not having been on the same train as others. [Post edited 15 Sep 9:40]
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| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 09:58 - Sep 15 with 433 views | baxterbasics |
Missed out a further response option: Drop a couple of ICBMs on Moscow. May as well at this point, eh? |  |
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| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 10:00 - Sep 15 with 423 views | bsw72 |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 09:39 - Sep 15 by Guthrum |
That's not strictly true. It would have required very good, live intelligence to identify which was the correct train. Plus the prominent individuals seem to have been distributed across more than one train*.
Also, the drone hit the engine, making the likelihood of casualties among passengers quite low.
In any case, they weren't diplomats, but a selection of advisors/interested parties, having no official status in their countries of origin. It would have created a storm, but not a causus belli.
* Accounts by some of them refer to not having been on the same train as others. [Post edited 15 Sep 9:40]
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Of course Russian intelligence has the ability to live track those individuals, it would be naive to think otherwise.
I realise the term diplomats was used loosely but the train was specifically designated under diplomatic charter for transport of attendees including foreign diplomats, security officials and similar to and from the Yalta European Strategy conference.
Not sure that the killing of a former British prime minister would only have "created a storm" . . . the Russian authorities would not have risked that - they are pushing the boundaries but still avoiding a wider conflict beyond the region. | | | |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 10:25 - Sep 15 with 369 views | bluester |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 10:00 - Sep 15 by bsw72 |
Of course Russian intelligence has the ability to live track those individuals, it would be naive to think otherwise.
I realise the term diplomats was used loosely but the train was specifically designated under diplomatic charter for transport of attendees including foreign diplomats, security officials and similar to and from the Yalta European Strategy conference.
Not sure that the killing of a former British prime minister would only have "created a storm" . . . the Russian authorities would not have risked that - they are pushing the boundaries but still avoiding a wider conflict beyond the region. |
i think you’re overestimating Russian intelligence there. | | | |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 10:32 - Sep 15 with 361 views | Guthrum |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 10:00 - Sep 15 by bsw72 |
Of course Russian intelligence has the ability to live track those individuals, it would be naive to think otherwise.
I realise the term diplomats was used loosely but the train was specifically designated under diplomatic charter for transport of attendees including foreign diplomats, security officials and similar to and from the Yalta European Strategy conference.
Not sure that the killing of a former British prime minister would only have "created a storm" . . . the Russian authorities would not have risked that - they are pushing the boundaries but still avoiding a wider conflict beyond the region. |
You'd need people on the ground, with inside knowlege of scheduling and so on, plus real-time communications and perhaps target designators. Not impossible, but a major operation and a lot of assets potentially used up for relatively little gain.
The fact they struck the engine says they were not risking killing any of the prominent individuals. It is a warning, a statement, nothing more. | |
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| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 14:48 - Sep 15 with 201 views | Kropotkin123 |
| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 09:15 - Sep 15 by bsw72 |
Small point of order, if Russia had targetted the train carrying the diplomats, they would have hit it - more likely they deliberately targetted the following train as a clear sign to deter foreign diplomats travelling to and from Romania without the political fallout of high profile casualties . . . |
A point of order is an objection, but I'm presenting other people's opinions.
I tend to agree with you, if their intelligence was good enough to target them, they probably wouldn't have. It doesn't seem consistent with their other escalations. | |
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| How to Respond to Putin's Escalation? on 19:41 - Sep 15 with 86 views | OldFootball |
Does anyone actually want peace? Asking for a friend |  | | |
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