| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. 00:16 - Oct 13 with 11125 views | unstableblue |
… In Brexit. And that Burnham is lying. When it’s proven they did.
What impact their social media influence - on scale - caused to the Leave vote is of course open to interpretation.
BUT - what is now emerging is that Ukraine have now bombed Russian server farms. And the level of Trump promoting accounts have significantly diminished.
It’s almost like our biggest security threat - Putin - is pro Trump/Reform.
It’s almost like Reform are bad for the UK?!
Letting that dangerous idiot into our club to use our brand remains a stain. [Post edited 13 Oct 12:07]
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:13 - Oct 16 with 518 views | GlasgowBlue |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:04 - Oct 16 by DJR |
I think the ambiguity is deliberate in order to win over Remainers who might have slipped away to the Greens or Lib Dems.
But at the same time is has its dangers because it could fire up the vote for those opposed to the EU which still makes up maybe around 46% in polling, if one combines the votes of the Tories and Reform.
And there is always the danger, if Reform continue to falter, that they will enter into some sort of alliance with the Tories based at least in part on opposition to the EU if Burnham pushes this too far |
Kemi has ruled out a coalition with Reform. Just as Burnham has ruled out a coalition with the Greens.
Which is awkward as we are heading into a hung parliament. |  |
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:14 - Oct 16 with 516 views | balcombeblue |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:04 - Oct 16 by DJR |
I think the ambiguity is deliberate in order to win over Remainers who might have slipped away to the Greens or Lib Dems.
But at the same time is has its dangers because it could fire up the vote for those opposed to the EU which still makes up maybe around 46% in polling, if one combines the votes of the Tories and Reform.
And there is always the danger, if Reform continue to falter, that they will enter into some sort of alliance with the Tories based at least in part on opposition to the EU if Burnham pushes this too far |
Away from the politics, debating rejoining under the political reality of where the EU is now, not least the debt issues facing France or Germany would be a waste of this parliament and the next.
I don't know why Labour strategists continue to try and pick their way around the electorate. Being clear on where they are with the EU and pursuing some sort of coherent economic strategy is clearly better than the daily, trivial press releases we are subjected to now.
The chancellor is in a total straight jacket for the budget in two weeks time. Rising costs of borrowing and an inability to do anything about spending is the reality of the next 3 years. Tax rises will totally restrict growth even further than now.
I will make the prediction that by next summer the Conservatives will be on top of the polls, basically switching the vote share with Reform. Labour second at around their current levels (25%) or maybe slightly below. |  | | |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:21 - Oct 16 with 499 views | Churchman |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 08:55 - Oct 16 by DJR |
Whilst he might be trying to suggest it (not least for popularity), I don't think Burnham has any intention of re-joining.
At best he is looking at the removal of certain trade barriers but even on that the EU is not in practical terms necessarily playing ball despite all the fine words.
And as I have said on here before, I am not sure I would want to join a club where the AfD and National Rally were in the driving seat. [Post edited 16 Oct 8:57]
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I agree DJR. Much as I might wish to see it, that ship has long since sailed.
However arrangements can be made for mutual benefit on Customs procedures and trade barriers, standards and many more elements of our relationship with the EU.
The previous government and others viewed being in the EU as all bad. It really wasn’t. The leave campaign was built on rhetoric, lies and plain ignorance. The stay campaign was built on ignorance, laziness and denial. What a mess. But progress can be made for a mutually beneficial relationship if there’s a will. [Post edited 16 Oct 12:05]
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:27 - Oct 16 with 478 views | WeWereZombies |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:04 - Oct 16 by DJR |
I think the ambiguity is deliberate in order to win over Remainers who might have slipped away to the Greens or Lib Dems.
But at the same time is has its dangers because it could fire up the vote for those opposed to the EU which still makes up maybe around 46% in polling, if one combines the votes of the Tories and Reform.
And there is always the danger, if Reform continue to falter, that they will enter into some sort of alliance with the Tories based at least in part on opposition to the EU if Burnham pushes this too far |
Given all the defections to 'Reform UK' over the last couple of years I don't think you can add the Conservatives into the anti European Union camp, they are probably a majority Remainer party now if that ancient term still had any relevance.
But there is a danger of reflux if the defectors abandon Farage to try and rejoin their old party. |  |
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:31 - Oct 16 with 459 views | redrickstuhaart |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:27 - Oct 16 by WeWereZombies |
Given all the defections to 'Reform UK' over the last couple of years I don't think you can add the Conservatives into the anti European Union camp, they are probably a majority Remainer party now if that ancient term still had any relevance.
But there is a danger of reflux if the defectors abandon Farage to try and rejoin their old party. |
They have divested themselves of most of the moderates surely? And with Badenoch as leader, they aren't about to attract more of them. |  |
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:32 - Oct 16 with 453 views | balcombeblue |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:13 - Oct 16 by GlasgowBlue |
Kemi has ruled out a coalition with Reform. Just as Burnham has ruled out a coalition with the Greens.
Which is awkward as we are heading into a hung parliament. |
https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/gb
Enjoy a smoothed 7-day rolling average.
Some great analytics in here. Gender, age, region. An Actuaries paradise. | | | |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:51 - Oct 16 with 416 views | GlasgowBlue |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:32 - Oct 16 by balcombeblue |
https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/gb
Enjoy a smoothed 7-day rolling average.
Some great analytics in here. Gender, age, region. An Actuaries paradise. |
That can’t be right. Burnham is the messiah and Kemi is rubbish. How can the Tories just be three points behind labour? | |
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:53 - Oct 16 with 409 views | DJR |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:13 - Oct 16 by GlasgowBlue |
Kemi has ruled out a coalition with Reform. Just as Burnham has ruled out a coalition with the Greens.
Which is awkward as we are heading into a hung parliament. |
I suppose I was looking more at some sort of one-sided arrangement whereby Reform chose only to contest some seats or even stood aside completely as in 2019 but it might only reach that stage if Burnham did seriously contemplate re-joining.
And despite what those two leaders say, I think they would be forced into some sort of (perhaps informal) alliance to ensure they could form a government of sorts. |  | | |
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 10:00 - Oct 16 with 372 views | WeWereZombies |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:31 - Oct 16 by redrickstuhaart |
They have divested themselves of most of the moderates surely? And with Badenoch as leader, they aren't about to attract more of them. |
There were moderates !?! | |
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 10:05 - Oct 16 with 352 views | balcombeblue |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:53 - Oct 16 by DJR |
I suppose I was looking more at some sort of one-sided arrangement whereby Reform chose only to contest some seats or even stood aside completely as in 2019 but it might only reach that stage if Burnham did seriously contemplate re-joining.
And despite what those two leaders say, I think they would be forced into some sort of (perhaps informal) alliance to ensure they could form a government of sorts. |
A confidence and supply arrangement? that would be one weird government.
I think the calculation for the Conservatives is to press ahead with their own strategy. Even if Reform win, say 50 seats, in 2029 then there is no long term gain there for the Conservatives.
Economics will continue to damage labour between now and 2029. That's the route back. | | | |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 12:46 - Oct 16 with 217 views | DJR |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 10:05 - Oct 16 by balcombeblue |
A confidence and supply arrangement? that would be one weird government.
I think the calculation for the Conservatives is to press ahead with their own strategy. Even if Reform win, say 50 seats, in 2029 then there is no long term gain there for the Conservatives.
Economics will continue to damage labour between now and 2029. That's the route back. |
I agree the Tories have no option.
And this is an interesting webpage from the site you linked which enables one to change each party's votes share and see its impact on seat numbers.
https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/de
Given the resilience of the Reform vote, and perhaps the greater propensity of Labour, Green and Lib Dem voters to vote tactically, it may well be more difficult for the Tories than Labour to get an overall majority. Indeed, the calculator gives you an option to find the vote share needed to get a majority which on the figures generated is lower for Labour than the Tories.
But we could end up with both main parties short of a majority, with (in the case of Labour in certain scenarios) a need to rely on the SNP which would be interesting. [Post edited 16 Oct 12:49]
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 12:52 - Oct 16 with 199 views | WeWereZombies |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 12:46 - Oct 16 by DJR |
I agree the Tories have no option.
And this is an interesting webpage from the site you linked which enables one to change each party's votes share and see its impact on seat numbers.
https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/de
Given the resilience of the Reform vote, and perhaps the greater propensity of Labour, Green and Lib Dem voters to vote tactically, it may well be more difficult for the Tories than Labour to get an overall majority. Indeed, the calculator gives you an option to find the vote share needed to get a majority which on the figures generated is lower for Labour than the Tories.
But we could end up with both main parties short of a majority, with (in the case of Labour in certain scenarios) a need to rely on the SNP which would be interesting. [Post edited 16 Oct 12:49]
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And who is Andy Burnham talking to today ? | |
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 13:10 - Oct 16 with 160 views | balcombeblue |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 12:46 - Oct 16 by DJR |
I agree the Tories have no option.
And this is an interesting webpage from the site you linked which enables one to change each party's votes share and see its impact on seat numbers.
https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/de
Given the resilience of the Reform vote, and perhaps the greater propensity of Labour, Green and Lib Dem voters to vote tactically, it may well be more difficult for the Tories than Labour to get an overall majority. Indeed, the calculator gives you an option to find the vote share needed to get a majority which on the figures generated is lower for Labour than the Tories.
But we could end up with both main parties short of a majority, with (in the case of Labour in certain scenarios) a need to rely on the SNP which would be interesting. [Post edited 16 Oct 12:49]
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Theoretically, if in your seat you had to vote Conservative to block reform, would you vote tactically in that way?
The seat where I am is about the 30th safest for Conservatives (about 8,500 majority). It's not a relevant question for me anyway as I would either vote Conservative or abstain again.
Most of my peers in the seat seem to vote Labour (you know the types, used to live in Clapham, have a Weber bbq and drive an EV that gives them Waitrose range anxiety). They'd rather split the vote down the middle than let a Liberal Democrat win, effectively acting as the Conservative party’s unofficial security blanket! | | | |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 13:48 - Oct 16 with 92 views | DJR |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 13:10 - Oct 16 by balcombeblue |
Theoretically, if in your seat you had to vote Conservative to block reform, would you vote tactically in that way?
The seat where I am is about the 30th safest for Conservatives (about 8,500 majority). It's not a relevant question for me anyway as I would either vote Conservative or abstain again.
Most of my peers in the seat seem to vote Labour (you know the types, used to live in Clapham, have a Weber bbq and drive an EV that gives them Waitrose range anxiety). They'd rather split the vote down the middle than let a Liberal Democrat win, effectively acting as the Conservative party’s unofficial security blanket! |
"(you know the types, used to live in Clapham, have a Weber bbq and drive an EV that gives them Waitrose range anxiety)"
You've got me down to a T. 
But if it came down to it, I would vote Tory to stop Reform.
As it is, my constituency is even more True Blue than yours and none of the council seats went Reform in May when Reform took much of the rest of Kent, so I'll never likely be put to the test.
Instead, I have the dubious pleasure of casting a wasted vote but I will always vote. [Post edited 16 Oct 13:48]
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 13:58 - Oct 16 with 71 views | DJR |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 09:14 - Oct 16 by balcombeblue |
Away from the politics, debating rejoining under the political reality of where the EU is now, not least the debt issues facing France or Germany would be a waste of this parliament and the next.
I don't know why Labour strategists continue to try and pick their way around the electorate. Being clear on where they are with the EU and pursuing some sort of coherent economic strategy is clearly better than the daily, trivial press releases we are subjected to now.
The chancellor is in a total straight jacket for the budget in two weeks time. Rising costs of borrowing and an inability to do anything about spending is the reality of the next 3 years. Tax rises will totally restrict growth even further than now.
I will make the prediction that by next summer the Conservatives will be on top of the polls, basically switching the vote share with Reform. Labour second at around their current levels (25%) or maybe slightly below. |
It's clearly not going to be a bed of roses but I heard this on the World Service whilst abroad which could be said to be counter-intuitive given the prevailing narrative in this country. Having said that, I doubt it got much publicity in the UK.
"On three occasions in the past 24 hours, top IMF officials have praised the UK's plans to reduce its annual levels of borrowing, bucking the trend of the rest of the G7 group of countries, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.
The IMF clearly seeing the UK in a different light to these major economies is very interesting.
"The UK is actually one country where action to reduce debt and deficit has been taken decisively and we see the UK in that sense enjoying a bit of a better growth prospect," managing director Kristalina Georgieva said earlier.
Her comments followed those of the IMF's chief economist Silvana Tenreyro who told me that UK borrowing reductions "stand out"." [Post edited 16 Oct 14:00]
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| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 14:13 - Oct 16 with 42 views | WeWereZombies |
| So the ‘visitor’ to our FOOTBALL club claims Russia didn’t interfere…. on 13:58 - Oct 16 by DJR |
It's clearly not going to be a bed of roses but I heard this on the World Service whilst abroad which could be said to be counter-intuitive given the prevailing narrative in this country. Having said that, I doubt it got much publicity in the UK.
"On three occasions in the past 24 hours, top IMF officials have praised the UK's plans to reduce its annual levels of borrowing, bucking the trend of the rest of the G7 group of countries, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.
The IMF clearly seeing the UK in a different light to these major economies is very interesting.
"The UK is actually one country where action to reduce debt and deficit has been taken decisively and we see the UK in that sense enjoying a bit of a better growth prospect," managing director Kristalina Georgieva said earlier.
Her comments followed those of the IMF's chief economist Silvana Tenreyro who told me that UK borrowing reductions "stand out"." [Post edited 16 Oct 14:00]
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I saw that on the BBC website but other things got in the way (literally, a deer stepped out right in front of my car on Saturday evening) so I am glad that you have posted, quite a different picture than the one we had in the early seventies when the Gnomes of Zurich handed over the task of squeezing the United Kingdom's testes to the International Monetary Fund post Nixon Shock.
John Healey's first budget will be a significant one and will require forensic study, not least because, like Rachel Reeves last one, I expect some detail...and a fair degree of misreporting. | |
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