| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies 22:02 - May 13 with 2075 views | gordon |
If anywhere near accurate, this is very low given the Spanish death toll. Means a second wave is pretty much inevitable in the UK (we can't be at anymore than 10%ish if the Spanish data is roughly accurate) given the premature easing of restrictions here and the absence of any meaningful way of identifying and suppressing outbreaks in a timely fashion.
The German data on antibody prevalence was coming from a town at the centre of their outbreak, whereas this is (supposedly) a large randomised sample. Not very good news at all.
[Post edited 13 May 2020 22:03]
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:15 - May 13 with 1600 views | Trequartista |
27 thousand deaths from 2.3 million infected sounds about right doesn't it - just over 1% death rate? |  |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:17 - May 13 with 1595 views | StokieBlue |
Not that surprising and in line with the German study which as you say was more focused.
Awful news really.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:25 - May 13 with 1561 views | homer_123 |
The question is .... is that 5% more or less than you would have expected?
Second wave has always been inevitable. History demonstrates this. |  |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:25 - May 13 with 1563 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:15 - May 13 by Trequartista |
27 thousand deaths from 2.3 million infected sounds about right doesn't it - just over 1% death rate? |
Yes - the important thing is that the only way this was going to be over much quicker than we thought was if the serology studies were showing e.g 30 - 40% of people had been infected with loads of asymptomatic carriers. The extremely low levels of infection basically mean that we're now not in a substantively different position to where we were in late March, in terms of getting things back to normal etc. | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:26 - May 13 with 1556 views | homer_123 |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:17 - May 13 by StokieBlue |
Not that surprising and in line with the German study which as you say was more focused.
Awful news really.
SB |
Sadly...not surprising. | |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:27 - May 13 with 1550 views | homer_123 |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:25 - May 13 by gordon |
Yes - the important thing is that the only way this was going to be over much quicker than we thought was if the serology studies were showing e.g 30 - 40% of people had been infected with loads of asymptomatic carriers. The extremely low levels of infection basically mean that we're now not in a substantively different position to where we were in late March, in terms of getting things back to normal etc. |
So...are you saying the Govs original Herd Immunity approach would have been better? | |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:28 - May 13 with 1549 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:25 - May 13 by homer_123 |
The question is .... is that 5% more or less than you would have expected?
Second wave has always been inevitable. History demonstrates this. |
That isn't the case, it's only inevitable without adequate public health measures: rapid testing, tracing and isolation. | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:34 - May 13 with 1535 views | homer_123 |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:28 - May 13 by gordon |
That isn't the case, it's only inevitable without adequate public health measures: rapid testing, tracing and isolation. |
South Korea? Germany?
Both meet your criteria but both are seeing significant rises in cases. China has the best approach to preventing one. Total lockdown and a plan test 10m Wuhan residents in 10 days. | |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 23:00 - May 13 with 1482 views | Plums |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:34 - May 13 by homer_123 |
South Korea? Germany?
Both meet your criteria but both are seeing significant rises in cases. China has the best approach to preventing one. Total lockdown and a plan test 10m Wuhan residents in 10 days. |
I think my 12 year old daughter has the best idea. Shut absolutely everything down for three weeks. Track and trace any resulting cases. |  |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 23:04 - May 13 with 1469 views | homer_123 |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 23:00 - May 13 by Plums |
I think my 12 year old daughter has the best idea. Shut absolutely everything down for three weeks. Track and trace any resulting cases. |
If you want the population to develop natural anti bodies...locking the population up isn't going to do it.
This is a balancing act between so many people catching it that health systems can't cope but still having enough people catch the virus to develop a wide natural immunity. Very difficult situation.
That said..the natural anti bodies generated may only provide short term immunity anyway. As per the flu for example.
WHO this evening have stated that this could be here to stay. | |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 00:03 - May 14 with 1389 views | Girthyguy |
I think based on statistics. The UK population to have had covid is about 11-12 percent. |  | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 05:35 - May 14 with 1263 views | tonybied |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 00:03 - May 14 by Girthyguy |
I think based on statistics. The UK population to have had covid is about 11-12 percent. |
Based on what statistics? Didn't Patrick
Valance say last week that it was believed in London around 10% of the population had caught the virus and somewhere around 4% for the rest of the country? |  | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 06:37 - May 14 with 1230 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:34 - May 13 by homer_123 |
South Korea? Germany?
Both meet your criteria but both are seeing significant rises in cases. China has the best approach to preventing one. Total lockdown and a plan test 10m Wuhan residents in 10 days. |
26 cases in South Korea yesterday - they suppressed a super-spreader event in a couple of days. There will be flare ups like that for months, but they will manage them. We wouldn't even know. | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 06:40 - May 14 with 1226 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 22:27 - May 13 by homer_123 |
So...are you saying the Govs original Herd Immunity approach would have been better? |
You've misunderstood. There was always a chance it was much less lethal than we thought. The government gambled on this being the case, and it being more like flu. As far as I can see this is pretty conclusive evidence that they lost their gamble.
Given the lethality, Suppressing the virus spread aggressively is the only reasonable approach. | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 07:19 - May 14 with 1185 views | homer_123 |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 06:40 - May 14 by gordon |
You've misunderstood. There was always a chance it was much less lethal than we thought. The government gambled on this being the case, and it being more like flu. As far as I can see this is pretty conclusive evidence that they lost their gamble.
Given the lethality, Suppressing the virus spread aggressively is the only reasonable approach. |
No...not miss understood.
Just asking a question. | |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 07:22 - May 14 with 1168 views | homer_123 |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 06:37 - May 14 by gordon |
26 cases in South Korea yesterday - they suppressed a super-spreader event in a couple of days. There will be flare ups like that for months, but they will manage them. We wouldn't even know. |
Yes...they've got testing as well organised as any country.
I'm not convinced it will halt a second wave.
Given the global population hasn't been in lockdown (full lockdown) long enough to stop this before spreading. It's only a matter of time. | |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 07:27 - May 14 with 1160 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 07:19 - May 14 by homer_123 |
No...not miss understood.
Just asking a question. |
Sorry, didn't mean to be flippant.
The limited intervention approach would've been broadly correct if these studies were coming back showing much higher levels of antibodies than expected, if they were coming back in the 40 - 50% range, and there were loads of asymptomatic carriers building up immunity. Then the lockdowns and the aggressive measures might have, in hindsight, been unnecessary.
The very low levels of antibody prevalence confirm that the original strategy would have led to hundreds of thousands of deaths in the UK. | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:05 - May 14 with 1110 views | Guthrum |
Assuming some sort of herd immunity is the way to go (or even works). It may be that we are closer to suppressing the disease by starving it of easily-accessed hosts.
Take the South Korean city of Daegu which was the centre of their worst outbreak and where a lot of concentrated testing took place. Less than 7,000 people tested positive in the Daegu region, containing a city of 2.5 million. That's 0.28%, a tiny fraction of the figure needed for herd immunity. And yet the disease died down, without treatment or vaccine. |  |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:11 - May 14 with 1092 views | Radlett_blue |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 23:00 - May 13 by Plums |
I think my 12 year old daughter has the best idea. Shut absolutely everything down for three weeks. Track and trace any resulting cases. |
You cannot shut everything down for 3 weeks, unless you are proposing that the country goes without energy, water, food & hospitals for 3 weeks. So the virus will not be completely eradicated & will inevitably reappear once the country emerges from lockdown. The more severe the lockdown, the harder it is to emerge. |  |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:26 - May 14 with 1068 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:05 - May 14 by Guthrum |
Assuming some sort of herd immunity is the way to go (or even works). It may be that we are closer to suppressing the disease by starving it of easily-accessed hosts.
Take the South Korean city of Daegu which was the centre of their worst outbreak and where a lot of concentrated testing took place. Less than 7,000 people tested positive in the Daegu region, containing a city of 2.5 million. That's 0.28%, a tiny fraction of the figure needed for herd immunity. And yet the disease died down, without treatment or vaccine. |
Not sure I follow, there's no evidence anywhere of the disease just dying down - if you want to achieve what happened in Daegu, for example, you have to aggressively go after the virus. We aren't doing that. | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:34 - May 14 with 1058 views | Guthrum |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:26 - May 14 by gordon |
Not sure I follow, there's no evidence anywhere of the disease just dying down - if you want to achieve what happened in Daegu, for example, you have to aggressively go after the virus. We aren't doing that. |
How did they 'go after the virus'? There is no means to attack it other than social distancing.
Our infection figures are also declining, albeit slowly, without treatment, vaccine or herd immunity. As they have also in Spain, Italy, Australia, New Zealand and China (that last almost completely, even if the figures are possibly suspect). | |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:43 - May 14 with 1040 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:34 - May 14 by Guthrum |
How did they 'go after the virus'? There is no means to attack it other than social distancing.
Our infection figures are also declining, albeit slowly, without treatment, vaccine or herd immunity. As they have also in Spain, Italy, Australia, New Zealand and China (that last almost completely, even if the figures are possibly suspect). |
Rapid testing, contact tracing and then isolating known and suspected cases is the way to suppress the virus.
If the antibody data from Spain and Germany is accurate, as measures are lifted in the UK then its inevitable that infection rates will start to go up again. | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:46 - May 14 with 1035 views | StokieBlue |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 06:37 - May 14 by gordon |
26 cases in South Korea yesterday - they suppressed a super-spreader event in a couple of days. There will be flare ups like that for months, but they will manage them. We wouldn't even know. |
They have suppressed it very well but what are your thoughts on how it was done and the civil liberty implications?
Speaking to my friend whose wife is from SK and reading this morning it seems the outbreak was at gay nightclubs, something which is frowned upon in SK according to my friend. People have had their identity found via credit card payments at the clubs and now a whole load of homophobic content has been published in the papers along with some names and people think they will lose their jobs. Some of the people will be "outed" as being gay and that will have loads of complications for their lives.
There were other issues originally with people being outed for things online with armchair detectives having access to quite a lot of data.
They have done incredibly well and I am all for track, test and isolate - I think it's the only really viable way but good to highlight the crossfire which can arise with it's use.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:55 - May 14 with 1020 views | Guthrum |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:43 - May 14 by gordon |
Rapid testing, contact tracing and then isolating known and suspected cases is the way to suppress the virus.
If the antibody data from Spain and Germany is accurate, as measures are lifted in the UK then its inevitable that infection rates will start to go up again. |
Which is why we would be stupid to lift too far, too quickly. Doubly so as we are behind countries like Spain in the progress of the disease.
The hope is that by careful easing of some restrictions, while taking strict precautions and - yes - being alert (!), the increases can be kept under control and fresh outbreaks spotted, isolated and dealt with. This will be easier to do second time around, as we now know what we're looking for and much more about how the virus behaves. | |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:00 - May 14 with 1013 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:46 - May 14 by StokieBlue |
They have suppressed it very well but what are your thoughts on how it was done and the civil liberty implications?
Speaking to my friend whose wife is from SK and reading this morning it seems the outbreak was at gay nightclubs, something which is frowned upon in SK according to my friend. People have had their identity found via credit card payments at the clubs and now a whole load of homophobic content has been published in the papers along with some names and people think they will lose their jobs. Some of the people will be "outed" as being gay and that will have loads of complications for their lives.
There were other issues originally with people being outed for things online with armchair detectives having access to quite a lot of data.
They have done incredibly well and I am all for track, test and isolate - I think it's the only really viable way but good to highlight the crossfire which can arise with it's use.
SB |
Absolutely, I think there are obvious civil liberties issues, there's no getting away from that. The SK model involves a publicly viewable database for example, where you can check to see records e.g. a 58 year old banker was staying at xxx motel and has tested positive.
There are trade-offs though - so in SK they have clubs open, and really aggressive tracing, while in the UK, if we don't open pubs, gyms and nightclubs for example, we could have a less intrusive system. Having said that, if we did want to open nightclubs, for example, then it would be reasonable for that to be on the condition that everyone who enters consents to being traced should there be a confirmed infection.
The biggest failing at the moment is that we aren't planning to integrate the testing with the contact tracing, because we don't think we can do the testing quickly enough, so the app is based on poeple self-reported symptoms of cold/flu.
The consequence of this is that if the prevalence of the virus was fairly low (which hopefully it will be!), then the majority of the alerts would be false alarms, so people would understandably disregard it.
The model works if you get rapid information to people that they have been in contact with a definite positive case. They then self-isolate until they are tested. But speed is the critical thing - the difference between a 24 hour turn-around and a 48 hour turn-around is massive in terms of virus spread.
In one of the early Imperial models, they modelled a contact tracing approach, but they assumed that the quickest you could get someone a test result was 3 days. As such, the model showed that it wouldn't significantly slow spread. At that time, in SK they were already getting results to people within 24 hours. | | | |
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