| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:01 - Nov 21 with 909 views | GlasgowBlue |
It’s in places like Hartlepool, Stoke and Bolsover where BP votes can do most damage to Labour. [Post edited 21 Nov 2019 9:02]
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| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:11 - Nov 21 with 882 views | Guthrum |
Altho I do wonder whether that direct transposition of voters from BP to Con (and LD to Lab) is as much an effect of the pollsters' mathematical modelling as reality. On the Telegraph comments, many disenfranchised BP supporters are declaring they plan not to vote at all, or to go UKIP/Independent/other Brexity parties where available.
It's interesting to note the marked shift in trends (Con and Lab up, LD and BP down) from the point where the election was actually called (29th Oct). Says something about the way people respond to polling, perhaps?
Plus there is a certain base percentage for UKIP/BP, around 10%, which is not far off the difference between Lab and Con. |  |
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| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:12 - Nov 21 with 879 views | StokieBlue |
Interesting to see the correlations but whether it gives insight into the final results is up for debate.
Some thoughts:
- Averaging lots of polls isn't helpful as it likely smooths out any real effects that are highlighted and you get a "fit" which is almost certainly wrong.
- The national trend is pretty pointless. It's specific constituencies where the trend and correlation really matters and that is lost in national polling. Given this the Brexit party certainly could have a large effect in some constituencies.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:18 - Nov 21 with 846 views | Guthrum |
| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:01 - Nov 21 by GlasgowBlue |
It’s in places like Hartlepool, Stoke and Bolsover where BP votes can do most damage to Labour. [Post edited 21 Nov 2019 9:02]
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They can, but will also be eroding support for Conservative challengers in those places. They being the seats Johnson needs to win in order to get any kind of majority. | |
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| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:20 - Nov 21 with 831 views | itfcjoe |
| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:18 - Nov 21 by Guthrum |
They can, but will also be eroding support for Conservative challengers in those places. They being the seats Johnson needs to win in order to get any kind of majority. |
How many of these intending to vote for Brexit Party would have supported JC and voted Labour in 2017? They’d already stopped voting Labour |  |
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| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:23 - Nov 21 with 819 views | Dubtractor |
| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:20 - Nov 21 by itfcjoe |
How many of these intending to vote for Brexit Party would have supported JC and voted Labour in 2017? They’d already stopped voting Labour |
This. In a nutshell.
Fully appreciate the points about national trends being a blunt instrument for individual constituencies, but no one who thinks Farage and co are a good thing voted for Corbyn in 2017.
I mean, none of it really matters as it looks to me that Johnson will win anyway, which is just hugely depressing. |  |
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| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:29 - Nov 21 with 794 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:20 - Nov 21 by itfcjoe |
How many of these intending to vote for Brexit Party would have supported JC and voted Labour in 2017? They’d already stopped voting Labour |
Not sure about thst Joe, Labour went into the last election with s promise to respect the outcome of the referendum. |  |
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| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:39 - Nov 21 with 764 views | Guthrum |
| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:20 - Nov 21 by itfcjoe |
How many of these intending to vote for Brexit Party would have supported JC and voted Labour in 2017? They’d already stopped voting Labour |
I think there has been greater polarisation since 2017, given the much increased chance since then that Brexit may be thwarted. In the last election, Labour advocated a negotiated withdrawal, pretty similar to the Tories. UKIP had largely ceased to be a major power, with the Referendum won and Farage having stepped down. The present scenario is considerably changed.
In Bolsover, the Labour vote has remained pretty consistent (between 22k and 26k) every election since 2001. His total count actually rose between 2015 and 2017, despite the reduced majority. However, in that period the turnout has bounced back from around 38k to nearly pre-1997 levels of 43-46k. Which accounts for a lot of the difference. Most of the other vote share has shifted LibDem => UKIP => Con, altho with only just over 60% turnout (well below average for a GE), that probably represents different groups of people choosing to vote or not. | |
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| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:56 - Nov 21 with 732 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 09:39 - Nov 21 by Guthrum |
I think there has been greater polarisation since 2017, given the much increased chance since then that Brexit may be thwarted. In the last election, Labour advocated a negotiated withdrawal, pretty similar to the Tories. UKIP had largely ceased to be a major power, with the Referendum won and Farage having stepped down. The present scenario is considerably changed.
In Bolsover, the Labour vote has remained pretty consistent (between 22k and 26k) every election since 2001. His total count actually rose between 2015 and 2017, despite the reduced majority. However, in that period the turnout has bounced back from around 38k to nearly pre-1997 levels of 43-46k. Which accounts for a lot of the difference. Most of the other vote share has shifted LibDem => UKIP => Con, altho with only just over 60% turnout (well below average for a GE), that probably represents different groups of people choosing to vote or not. |
Get your natural support to vote and you win. Turnout is difficult to understand. It was lower in Ipswich, where it mattered as far as the overall outcome, than in Suffolk South where the result was never in doubt. | |
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| Interesting graph on here on voting intentions on 10:40 - Nov 21 with 695 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Far too simplistic an interpretation. Traditionally LibDem votes go to Conservative as much as Labour. There is a strong argument Labour voters would be happy with Brexit Party but not Conservative.
What is happening to the remain Conservative vote share? Are they trusting the Conservative Party overall to continue to procrastinate and frustrate so it just rumbles on and on or do they just vote for their party regardless? |  |
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