| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths 00:49 - Mar 19 with 4152 views | StokieBlue |
Horrible for the Italians, 475 more deaths today so given the progression they will overtake China tomorrow (assuming you believe the Chinese numbers).
Really horrible situation over there. The perfect storm of widespread infections and multi-generational homes.
Shows what a virus like this can do to even a modern and developed country and why the advice given needs to be taken seriously given Italy has been in lockdown for 10 days now and the infections are still going up every day.
SB |  |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 07:10 - Mar 19 with 3251 views | Swansea_Blue |
No new domestic cases in China though - the only ones are those coming back in. Shows the importance of working together on this (at least through this first hump). |  |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 07:23 - Mar 19 with 3231 views | StokieBlue |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 07:10 - Mar 19 by Swansea_Blue |
No new domestic cases in China though - the only ones are those coming back in. Shows the importance of working together on this (at least through this first hump). |
Agreed.
Assuming you believe the Chinese numbers, they are on a huge propaganda drive at the moment to try and get the people back onside.
SB | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 07:23 - Mar 19 with 3228 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 07:23 - Mar 19 by StokieBlue |
Agreed.
Assuming you believe the Chinese numbers, they are on a huge propaganda drive at the moment to try and get the people back onside.
SB |
Well yes, there is that! | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 07:53 - Mar 19 with 3174 views | homer_123 |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 07:23 - Mar 19 by Swansea_Blue |
Well yes, there is that! |
And you've no idea if this thing will rebound for them, given the approach they took. |  |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:30 - Mar 19 with 3145 views | Guthrum |
The most significantly alarming thing about Italy is the mortality rate which, in two of the populous northern regions, is running at over 10% of known cases (Lombardy 11.06%, Emilia-Romagna 10.12%). Some others are recording over 5%. |  |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:47 - Mar 19 with 3117 views | StokieBlue |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:30 - Mar 19 by Guthrum |
The most significantly alarming thing about Italy is the mortality rate which, in two of the populous northern regions, is running at over 10% of known cases (Lombardy 11.06%, Emilia-Romagna 10.12%). Some others are recording over 5%. |
I assume that is still due to a larger number of older people getting infected due to Italian family housing arrangements.
SB | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 17:17 - Mar 20 with 2974 views | StokieBlue |
Another 627 deaths in Italy today, awful :(.
SB | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 17:39 - Mar 20 with 2939 views | Harry_Palmer |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 17:17 - Mar 20 by StokieBlue |
Another 627 deaths in Italy today, awful :(.
SB |
It really is terrible.
Stokie, do you know if cases are also still increasing there or are they starting to come down?
Also, do you have a view on whether this means the lockdown is not working or is it still too early to tell? |  | | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 17:41 - Mar 20 with 2933 views | longtimefan |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 17:39 - Mar 20 by Harry_Palmer |
It really is terrible.
Stokie, do you know if cases are also still increasing there or are they starting to come down?
Also, do you have a view on whether this means the lockdown is not working or is it still too early to tell? |
Not slowing down yet. Nearly 6000 new cases today  |  | | |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 17:51 - Mar 20 with 2916 views | BloomBlue |
I wouldn't believe the numbers from China
I keep hearing stories from the Chinese community near us of those in the Country who criticised the Governments approach to suppressing the news originally mysteriously disappearing.
Also don't forget the stories of the authorities threatening to shot people if they came onto the streets if Boris did that would people complain? |  | | |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 18:04 - Mar 20 with 2897 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 17:17 - Mar 20 by StokieBlue |
Another 627 deaths in Italy today, awful :(.
SB |
What was it yesterday...4 hundred and something?
I can't help but feel that given our response it may well be worse even with a younger demographic.
What happens if you project our current numbers 2 weeks ahead? |  |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 18:05 - Mar 20 with 2898 views | eireblue |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:47 - Mar 19 by StokieBlue |
I assume that is still due to a larger number of older people getting infected due to Italian family housing arrangements.
SB |
This is one of the reasons I personally don’t like people referring to the 1% overall figure.
It maybe behind some peoples casual attitude. |  | | |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 18:06 - Mar 20 with 2895 views | StokieBlue |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 17:39 - Mar 20 by Harry_Palmer |
It really is terrible.
Stokie, do you know if cases are also still increasing there or are they starting to come down?
Also, do you have a view on whether this means the lockdown is not working or is it still too early to tell? |
Still increasing daily unfortunately - was about 420 yesterday and the day before.
I don't think it's peaked yet, Italy has unique social demographics which mean that older generations who are much more at risk live in the same houses as two or even three other generations. It's a perfect storm for the virus.
Unfortunately another country which has a similar structure but to a lesser degree, Spain, seems to be increasing in deaths as well (>1000 now).
I don't think you can say the lockdown isn't working but if it's still going up in another week then people might need to start looking into it.
SB | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 18:22 - Mar 20 with 2872 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 07:53 - Mar 19 by homer_123 |
And you've no idea if this thing will rebound for them, given the approach they took. |
And there is that as well!
Presumably nobody has any idea about that for any country. And as this thing mutates are we going to be able to keep on top of the new strains each year for vaccines, etc., etc? Put's Towen's trials and tribulations into focus, that's for sure. I'd happily be laughing at videos of Jonathan Douglas walking around the centre circle instead! | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 19:48 - Mar 20 with 2848 views | Harry_Palmer |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 18:06 - Mar 20 by StokieBlue |
Still increasing daily unfortunately - was about 420 yesterday and the day before.
I don't think it's peaked yet, Italy has unique social demographics which mean that older generations who are much more at risk live in the same houses as two or even three other generations. It's a perfect storm for the virus.
Unfortunately another country which has a similar structure but to a lesser degree, Spain, seems to be increasing in deaths as well (>1000 now).
I don't think you can say the lockdown isn't working but if it's still going up in another week then people might need to start looking into it.
SB |
Thanks. Yes lets hope it starts having an effect soon so the numbers can improve. | | | |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 20:22 - Mar 20 with 2826 views | LeoMuff |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 18:06 - Mar 20 by StokieBlue |
Still increasing daily unfortunately - was about 420 yesterday and the day before.
I don't think it's peaked yet, Italy has unique social demographics which mean that older generations who are much more at risk live in the same houses as two or even three other generations. It's a perfect storm for the virus.
Unfortunately another country which has a similar structure but to a lesser degree, Spain, seems to be increasing in deaths as well (>1000 now).
I don't think you can say the lockdown isn't working but if it's still going up in another week then people might need to start looking into it.
SB |
It can’t just be demographics as other countries eg Japan have very elderly populations, and have kept numbers very low, the numbers there are very scary and their intensive care capabilities were greater than ours. They also were on lockdown quite some time ago so it does seem a bit of a mystery?
Let us hope and pray it’s not simply a case of them just being a month ahead in the cycle |  |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 22:06 - Mar 20 with 2778 views | StokieBlue |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 20:22 - Mar 20 by LeoMuff |
It can’t just be demographics as other countries eg Japan have very elderly populations, and have kept numbers very low, the numbers there are very scary and their intensive care capabilities were greater than ours. They also were on lockdown quite some time ago so it does seem a bit of a mystery?
Let us hope and pray it’s not simply a case of them just being a month ahead in the cycle |
That's not what I said.
In Japan you don't have multi-generational households as much as in Italy - I would suspect virtually none in comparison. In Italy the elderly are much more exposed to the virus due to this.
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:00 - Mar 21 with 2711 views | No9 |
LIstening to an Italian Dr from the North of Italy he said the most encouraging thing it that, while the number of deaths is distressing the recovery rate is encouraging as % wise they are running about the same level.
Germany is interesting, with X 2 the number of reported cases as the Uk the death rate is less than 1/2 | | | |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:29 - Mar 21 with 2685 views | LeoMuff |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 22:06 - Mar 20 by StokieBlue |
That's not what I said.
In Japan you don't have multi-generational households as much as in Italy - I would suspect virtually none in comparison. In Italy the elderly are much more exposed to the virus due to this.
SB |
Chill out fella
If that were the case why have different areas of the same country eg Italy experienced drastically different rates of infection, would suggest it’s not down to that. | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:45 - Mar 21 with 2670 views | StokieBlue |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:29 - Mar 21 by LeoMuff |
Chill out fella
If that were the case why have different areas of the same country eg Italy experienced drastically different rates of infection, would suggest it’s not down to that. |
I am fine, I replied to your post fairly - you were the one who didn't read my post properly and dismissed it.
"If that were the case why have different areas of the same country eg Italy experienced drastically different rates of infection, would suggest it’s not down to that."
I am not really sure what to say, you seem intent on dismissing everything. The reason a country like Italy hasn't experienced a blanket level of infection is because viruses move out in waves as the vectors meet new people to infect. Southern Italy is getting worse and they are expecting it to get much worse.
I think you need to go do some reading before pointing fingers at other people and telling them to chill out as you don't seem to grasp some of the concepts here.
SB | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:56 - Mar 21 with 2661 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 22:06 - Mar 20 by StokieBlue |
That's not what I said.
In Japan you don't have multi-generational households as much as in Italy - I would suspect virtually none in comparison. In Italy the elderly are much more exposed to the virus due to this.
SB |
And yet our sombrero is rising steepest of all! | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 09:32 - Mar 21 with 2644 views | StokieBlue |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:56 - Mar 21 by BanksterDebtSlave |
And yet our sombrero is rising steepest of all! |
Could be many reasons for that though:
- Many more flights come through the UK than Italy meaning there could have been more vectors.
- People are more densely packed in the UK - Rome only has a population of 2m and then next is Milan with just under 1m. Less scope for quick transmission without longer journeys in Italy.
- It's taken from the first recognised death - perhaps that was earlier in Italy than was actually recorded (in fact this is almost certainly true for both countries).
- Perhaps our response has been wrong.
I don't think you can jump straight to point 4 though which seems to be your implication?
SB | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 09:46 - Mar 21 with 2627 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 09:32 - Mar 21 by StokieBlue |
Could be many reasons for that though:
- Many more flights come through the UK than Italy meaning there could have been more vectors.
- People are more densely packed in the UK - Rome only has a population of 2m and then next is Milan with just under 1m. Less scope for quick transmission without longer journeys in Italy.
- It's taken from the first recognised death - perhaps that was earlier in Italy than was actually recorded (in fact this is almost certainly true for both countries).
- Perhaps our response has been wrong.
I don't think you can jump straight to point 4 though which seems to be your implication?
SB |
You are correct that I will be going with 4....time and further analysis will tell. | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 10:09 - Mar 21 with 2615 views | LeoMuff |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 08:45 - Mar 21 by StokieBlue |
I am fine, I replied to your post fairly - you were the one who didn't read my post properly and dismissed it.
"If that were the case why have different areas of the same country eg Italy experienced drastically different rates of infection, would suggest it’s not down to that."
I am not really sure what to say, you seem intent on dismissing everything. The reason a country like Italy hasn't experienced a blanket level of infection is because viruses move out in waves as the vectors meet new people to infect. Southern Italy is getting worse and they are expecting it to get much worse.
I think you need to go do some reading before pointing fingers at other people and telling them to chill out as you don't seem to grasp some of the concepts here.
SB |
I repeat, chill out o wise one.
Just having a general conversation on a forum, no need for the school teacher tone, you are coming across as a bit of a knob. | |
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| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 10:14 - Mar 21 with 2604 views | StokieBlue |
| Italy will overtake China tomorrow in deaths on 10:09 - Mar 21 by LeoMuff |
I repeat, chill out o wise one.
Just having a general conversation on a forum, no need for the school teacher tone, you are coming across as a bit of a knob. |
I would wager the only person coming across as a knob is you.
You posted two questions, I answered them both politely and you dismissed both answers. You're not having a "conversation on the forum" as you are unwilling to engage in the answers.
SB [Post edited 21 Mar 2020 10:15]
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