| Back to playing for 6th place again? 16:55 - Feb 26 with 928 views | Vic |
5 place has opened to 6 points - too far I think. |  |
| |  |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 16:58 - Feb 26 with 898 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
We have always been playing to try to sneak into 6th since McKenna came in. We need to get another 21 points - 7 wins from 11 games which is a big ask (but also McKenna's record so far) and trust that one of those currently 5th or 6th drop off enough for that to make it. |  |
| |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 16:59 - Feb 26 with 886 views | pointofblue |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 16:58 - Feb 26 by Nthsuffolkblue |
We have always been playing to try to sneak into 6th since McKenna came in. We need to get another 21 points - 7 wins from 11 games which is a big ask (but also McKenna's record so far) and trust that one of those currently 5th or 6th drop off enough for that to make it. |
These were two key matches - we should have got at least four if not six from them. This has hurt us badly. [Post edited 26 Feb 2022 16:59]
|  |
| |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 17:01 - Feb 26 with 845 views | Kievthegreat |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 16:58 - Feb 26 by Nthsuffolkblue |
We have always been playing to try to sneak into 6th since McKenna came in. We need to get another 21 points - 7 wins from 11 games which is a big ask (but also McKenna's record so far) and trust that one of those currently 5th or 6th drop off enough for that to make it. |
I've assumed we'll need 25 points, so 8 wins and draw or 7 wins and 4 draws, although it would great if we needed less.
The last 2 games haven't completely killed our chances, but I think we're at the stage where we can only afford 2 more defeats till the end of the season with a healthy amount of wins in the other games. Basically zero margin for error now. |  | | |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 17:02 - Feb 26 with 829 views | billlm |
And 6th sheff have 5 points and two games on us, |  | | |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 17:05 - Feb 26 with 807 views | Vic |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 17:01 - Feb 26 by Kievthegreat |
I've assumed we'll need 25 points, so 8 wins and draw or 7 wins and 4 draws, although it would great if we needed less.
The last 2 games haven't completely killed our chances, but I think we're at the stage where we can only afford 2 more defeats till the end of the season with a healthy amount of wins in the other games. Basically zero margin for error now. |
It’s a goos run we’re on, but I think there is too little margin for error, and we’re relying too much on other dropping away.
Confident fo4 next season - especially a I think we’ll get a couple of better strikers in. | |
| |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 17:06 - Feb 26 with 796 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 16:58 - Feb 26 by Nthsuffolkblue |
We have always been playing to try to sneak into 6th since McKenna came in. We need to get another 21 points - 7 wins from 11 games which is a big ask (but also McKenna's record so far) and trust that one of those currently 5th or 6th drop off enough for that to make it. |
Innit. And 6th is only an outside chance. |  |
| |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 17:32 - Feb 26 with 723 views | MeltonBlue |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 17:06 - Feb 26 by Swansea_Blue |
Innit. And 6th is only an outside chance. |
Sheffield Wednesday are in great form so will probably win at least one of their games in hand.. play offs are now gone on the back of the last two games.. disappointing but with strikers who are unable to convert chances from 2 yards out on a regular basis it was always going to be difficult. | | | |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 17:36 - Feb 26 with 703 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 17:32 - Feb 26 by MeltonBlue |
Sheffield Wednesday are in great form so will probably win at least one of their games in hand.. play offs are now gone on the back of the last two games.. disappointing but with strikers who are unable to convert chances from 2 yards out on a regular basis it was always going to be difficult. |
It is always a hope that the games in hand become as much of a problem as a bonus as tired legs and suspensions kick in.
I thought we had no hope of the play-offs when McKenna was appointed. I think we have a very outside chance of it now. The fact that if we had won these two matches we would be right on the heels of 6th is testament to how well McKenna has got us doing. Much as dropping 4 points is disappointing, those 2 points might prove to be just enough at the end.
COYB! | |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 19:02 - Feb 26 with 619 views | HARRY10 |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 16:58 - Feb 26 by Nthsuffolkblue |
We have always been playing to try to sneak into 6th since McKenna came in. We need to get another 21 points - 7 wins from 11 games which is a big ask (but also McKenna's record so far) and trust that one of those currently 5th or 6th drop off enough for that to make it. |
Another 21 points ?
That would leave us well short
6th place has been averaging 81 points since Xmas (with varying teams) ie their points per game at 33 games v 46 games. At the moment it would give
5. Sheff Weds 81 points
6. Plymouth 78
7. Sunderland 77.5
8. Wycombe 74.4
9. Ipswich 69
Obviously we are currently picking up more points than our season average has, but we still need 26 out of the final 33 (which would have us finishing on 109 over 46 games).
We have picked up 21 points from the 13 games under McK
Whilst there are many variables, which depend on the 13 teams we have played, and how one goal in a couple of games would put those figures massively out (either way) we are not on target, and games are getting fewer.
It is not the mathematics that will stop us hitting 6th. But the fact that we have not found that one goal in 5 games under McK, which would have earned us points in those 5 games.
Nil desperandum as the Chinese would say, the fat lady has not even warmed up yet and it is still in our hands.................
....................................but I fear it will be our strikers boots that fail us. | | | |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 19:30 - Feb 26 with 588 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 19:02 - Feb 26 by HARRY10 |
Another 21 points ?
That would leave us well short
6th place has been averaging 81 points since Xmas (with varying teams) ie their points per game at 33 games v 46 games. At the moment it would give
5. Sheff Weds 81 points
6. Plymouth 78
7. Sunderland 77.5
8. Wycombe 74.4
9. Ipswich 69
Obviously we are currently picking up more points than our season average has, but we still need 26 out of the final 33 (which would have us finishing on 109 over 46 games).
We have picked up 21 points from the 13 games under McK
Whilst there are many variables, which depend on the 13 teams we have played, and how one goal in a couple of games would put those figures massively out (either way) we are not on target, and games are getting fewer.
It is not the mathematics that will stop us hitting 6th. But the fact that we have not found that one goal in 5 games under McK, which would have earned us points in those 5 games.
Nil desperandum as the Chinese would say, the fat lady has not even warmed up yet and it is still in our hands.................
....................................but I fear it will be our strikers boots that fail us. |
That's based on form over a short part of the season. As I say, it will require one of those currently 5th or 6th to drop off. Teams often do.
Last season 6th place: Oxford 74 pts
2018/19: 73 pts
2017/18: 71 pts
2016/17: 73 pts
2015/16: 74 pts
2014/15: 69 pts
2013/14: 74 pts
2012/13: 74 pts
2011/12: 73 pts
So it would be highly unusual for 6th to end up with 75 or more points. Of course it is also possible that every team in the top six wins every match apart from when they play each other and then we would need in excess of 90 points to finish 6th. | |
| |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 20:26 - Feb 26 with 536 views | HARRY10 |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 19:30 - Feb 26 by Nthsuffolkblue |
That's based on form over a short part of the season. As I say, it will require one of those currently 5th or 6th to drop off. Teams often do.
Last season 6th place: Oxford 74 pts
2018/19: 73 pts
2017/18: 71 pts
2016/17: 73 pts
2015/16: 74 pts
2014/15: 69 pts
2013/14: 74 pts
2012/13: 74 pts
2011/12: 73 pts
So it would be highly unusual for 6th to end up with 75 or more points. Of course it is also possible that every team in the top six wins every match apart from when they play each other and then we would need in excess of 90 points to finish 6th. |
Those places do not factor in where teams were with 11 games to go, so they arem't really any comparison.
There has not been any 11 home period this season without at least two draws, so down to 29 points. Split the points against the top 4 we play, and you are down to 23 points.
That's just working on probability, based on seasons form - though I have factored in our recent form and upped the points total against the top four.
Whether we have sacrificed a more free scoring team for one who are now fairly solid at the back is a moot point, though the goals for and against do suggest that. | | | |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 20:57 - Feb 26 with 501 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Back to playing for 6th place again? on 20:26 - Feb 26 by HARRY10 |
Those places do not factor in where teams were with 11 games to go, so they arem't really any comparison.
There has not been any 11 home period this season without at least two draws, so down to 29 points. Split the points against the top 4 we play, and you are down to 23 points.
That's just working on probability, based on seasons form - though I have factored in our recent form and upped the points total against the top four.
Whether we have sacrificed a more free scoring team for one who are now fairly solid at the back is a moot point, though the goals for and against do suggest that. |
I'll let you research that but I would be surprised if they had many fewer points. Why would this season be especially different from every other season for the past decade?
EDIT: If you do take the current table and form over the past however many matches each team has left then you get the following:
Currently 4th - Oxford - 81
5th - Sunderland - 69
6th - Sheff Wed - 83
7th - Plymouth - 76
8th - Wycombe - 68
9th ITFC 74
So, on current form, we would miss out by 2 points and it would take 76 to make it. It would take a draw instead of a win for Plymouth as the fixtures pile up and pressure builds on them. They have 13 matches left in 9 weeks. I would expect 74 points to make it. Whether that is us, Plymouth or Sunderland time will tell. Oxford could take a dive in form too. [Post edited 26 Feb 2022 21:08]
| |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
