| This weeks update on play off chances... 21:02 - Mar 27 with 1346 views | itfcjoe |
75 points - 3W 2D 1L - 1% (No change)
76 points - 4W 2L or 3W 3D - 2-3% (-2%)
77 points - 4W 1D 1L - 9% (-4%)
78 points - 4W 2D - 21% (-8%)
79 points - 5W 1L - 40% (-9%)
80 points - 5W 1D - 63% (-10%)
81 points - N/A
82 points - 6W - 94% (-3%)
So basically despite winning, we are now less likely to make the play offs at each amount of points.... |  |
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| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:13 - Mar 27 with 1267 views | unstableblue |
Oooh love this
Let me understand/confirm Joe. So despite the chance of play-offs being downgraded... if we win 5 and draw 1 we have a greater chance of getting into the pay-offs than not?
And if we win all our remaining games we have an almost certain chance of the play-offs?
How is this calculated does it consider the games of our rivals in detail? e.g. Sheff Weds = Bolton away; Sunderland at home; MK Dons at home; Rotherham away
Or is it current PPG of rivals?
I await your response, with excitement and anticipation |  |
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| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:18 - Mar 27 with 1234 views | itfcjoe |
| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:13 - Mar 27 by unstableblue |
Oooh love this
Let me understand/confirm Joe. So despite the chance of play-offs being downgraded... if we win 5 and draw 1 we have a greater chance of getting into the pay-offs than not?
And if we win all our remaining games we have an almost certain chance of the play-offs?
How is this calculated does it consider the games of our rivals in detail? e.g. Sheff Weds = Bolton away; Sunderland at home; MK Dons at home; Rotherham away
Or is it current PPG of rivals?
I await your response, with excitement and anticipation |
I don't know a huge amount about the model and simulator but is sportsclubstats.com....
But what you have said in paras 2 and 3 is correct - so lets keep winning and see where it gets us | |
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| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:31 - Mar 27 with 1128 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:18 - Mar 27 by itfcjoe |
I don't know a huge amount about the model and simulator but is sportsclubstats.com....
But what you have said in paras 2 and 3 is correct - so lets keep winning and see where it gets us |
I’d have it way lower than 94% with 6 wins. |  | | |
| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:33 - Mar 27 with 1116 views | unstableblue |
| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:18 - Mar 27 by itfcjoe |
I don't know a huge amount about the model and simulator but is sportsclubstats.com....
But what you have said in paras 2 and 3 is correct - so lets keep winning and see where it gets us |
We’re going up Joe!! | |
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| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:38 - Mar 27 with 1089 views | textbackup |
77 points - 4W 1D 1L - 9% (-4%)
imagine we get 6th with the above..... 4%, the bloke who made the stats who need to retire |  |
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| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:40 - Mar 27 with 1062 views | unstableblue |
| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:31 - Mar 27 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I’d have it way lower than 94% with 6 wins. |
Sheff Weds basically will go 8 points clear if they win their game in hand
So we need to win all ours. And they need to lose 2 and draw 1, and we need to get some goals as well in our remaining fixtures. Bolton away; Sunderland at home; MK Dons at home; Rotherham away
Hmmmmmm… 94% does seem bullish | |
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| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:46 - Mar 27 with 1026 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Less likely to be 6th at each set of points but more likely to get to each set of points.
I still can't believe that there is a 37% probability of a team reaching 80 points and finishing outside the top 6. I think teams will start slipping up (but then I have been expecting that for some time now and thought 75 points ought to be enough).
All we can do is keep winning and getting as many points as we can. |  |
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| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:48 - Mar 27 with 1020 views | textbackup |
| This weeks update on play off chances... on 21:46 - Mar 27 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Less likely to be 6th at each set of points but more likely to get to each set of points.
I still can't believe that there is a 37% probability of a team reaching 80 points and finishing outside the top 6. I think teams will start slipping up (but then I have been expecting that for some time now and thought 75 points ought to be enough).
All we can do is keep winning and getting as many points as we can. |
absolutely convinced there will be THAT one weekend when we've just won, and others above have all slipped up, and we sht our pants in excitement | |
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| This weeks update on play off chances... on 22:51 - Mar 27 with 801 views | bluestandard |
We certainly are capable of winning all the remaining games…..in all likelihood we will probably drop points against either Rotherham or Wigan (4 points from those two games would be good going). Of the remaining games, Ive got a small concern about the Shrewsbury game. They are keeping lots of clean sheets, have an in form goalkeeper and two strikers with 14 and 12 goals so far this season. Factor in the recent history with Hurst/transfers etc gives this game an unwelcome edge.
We’re still in it though, so COYBs!! |  | | |
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