| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. 17:35 - Mar 2 with 1911 views | MattinLondon |
I’m not an expert on the human condition or modern warfare so if anyone can answer a couple of questions then I’ll be grateful.
The Russians were massing their armies for some time so why didn’t sanctions come into play straight away? Wouldn’t it have made sense for the west, NATO, the EU, to have discussed the possibility of sanctions some weeks prior and implemented them as soon as tanks started to roll into the Ukraine? Also, Putin seems to be like the sort of person who only takes notice of brute force, be it militarily or financial. So why didn’t the west go in hard straight away?
Is it simply down to the need for Russian gas as well billions of rubles being in western economies to why the west seemed to have been caught off guard?
Sorry if these questions appear simplistic. |  | | |  |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:07 - Mar 2 with 1819 views | gtsb1966 |
A nutter and nuclear bombs might have something to do with it. |  | | |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:13 - Mar 2 with 1803 views | factual_blue |
All we can say for certain is that the West weren't talking about sanctions publicly ahead of the attack. That would have allowed putain to plan ahead.
I think he's already looking for a way out; it's plainly not going the way he wanted militarily, and every weapon blowing up a civilian target worsens his international standing. The sanctions are, I suspect, making things very bad very quickly for Russia. This sort of economic warfare takes far longer to recover from than it does to inflict, and the speed of Russia's recovery will be slowed the longer the war* continues.
More talks are scheduled for tomorrow, apparently. The Russian foreign minister has said that (a) they want guarantees about weapons that won't ever be allowed in Ukraine; and (b) they recognise Zelensky as a legitimate president. I'd like to think this is positive stuff, but we'll have to wait and see.
*Sorry Phil. I of course mean 'Special Military Operation'. Or have you already been whisked away to a gulag? |  |
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| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:13 - Mar 2 with 1792 views | MattinLondon |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:07 - Mar 2 by gtsb1966 |
A nutter and nuclear bombs might have something to do with it. |
I forgot about the nukes. | | | |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:18 - Mar 2 with 1782 views | MattinLondon |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:13 - Mar 2 by factual_blue |
All we can say for certain is that the West weren't talking about sanctions publicly ahead of the attack. That would have allowed putain to plan ahead.
I think he's already looking for a way out; it's plainly not going the way he wanted militarily, and every weapon blowing up a civilian target worsens his international standing. The sanctions are, I suspect, making things very bad very quickly for Russia. This sort of economic warfare takes far longer to recover from than it does to inflict, and the speed of Russia's recovery will be slowed the longer the war* continues.
More talks are scheduled for tomorrow, apparently. The Russian foreign minister has said that (a) they want guarantees about weapons that won't ever be allowed in Ukraine; and (b) they recognise Zelensky as a legitimate president. I'd like to think this is positive stuff, but we'll have to wait and see.
*Sorry Phil. I of course mean 'Special Military Operation'. Or have you already been whisked away to a gulag? |
Oh I see. I always thought in potential war situations the aggressor would have taken into account worst case scenarios - sanctions being quite obvious - allowing them to plan ahead and tell his allies to take their money out etc. But suppose there’s only so much a billionaire can do before the authorities are alerted.
Thanks. | | | |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:19 - Mar 2 with 1782 views | MattinLondon |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:13 - Mar 2 by factual_blue |
All we can say for certain is that the West weren't talking about sanctions publicly ahead of the attack. That would have allowed putain to plan ahead.
I think he's already looking for a way out; it's plainly not going the way he wanted militarily, and every weapon blowing up a civilian target worsens his international standing. The sanctions are, I suspect, making things very bad very quickly for Russia. This sort of economic warfare takes far longer to recover from than it does to inflict, and the speed of Russia's recovery will be slowed the longer the war* continues.
More talks are scheduled for tomorrow, apparently. The Russian foreign minister has said that (a) they want guarantees about weapons that won't ever be allowed in Ukraine; and (b) they recognise Zelensky as a legitimate president. I'd like to think this is positive stuff, but we'll have to wait and see.
*Sorry Phil. I of course mean 'Special Military Operation'. Or have you already been whisked away to a gulag? |
And I suppose any withdrawal/ peace deal will have to allow strongman Putin the opportunity to save face and claim some sort of victory. | | | |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:22 - Mar 2 with 1774 views | factual_blue |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:19 - Mar 2 by MattinLondon |
And I suppose any withdrawal/ peace deal will have to allow strongman Putin the opportunity to save face and claim some sort of victory. |
He'll be able to paint the weapons restrictions as a victory, as it presumably effectively prevents Ukraine joining NATO. And he can present recognising Zelensky as proof of his magnanimous nature.
But the reality will be he loses every which way | |
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| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:26 - Mar 2 with 1760 views | MattinLondon |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:22 - Mar 2 by factual_blue |
He'll be able to paint the weapons restrictions as a victory, as it presumably effectively prevents Ukraine joining NATO. And he can present recognising Zelensky as proof of his magnanimous nature.
But the reality will be he loses every which way |
In your opinion will his standing amongst his generals and financial backers be damaged as a result of this conflict? If it continues as it does.
One thing fooling the public but another thing the people in the know. | | | |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:30 - Mar 2 with 1730 views | gtsb1966 |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:26 - Mar 2 by MattinLondon |
In your opinion will his standing amongst his generals and financial backers be damaged as a result of this conflict? If it continues as it does.
One thing fooling the public but another thing the people in the know. |
I think the west are hoping his inner circle will be the people who bring him down. | | | |
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| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:36 - Mar 2 with 1696 views | positivity |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:18 - Mar 2 by MattinLondon |
Oh I see. I always thought in potential war situations the aggressor would have taken into account worst case scenarios - sanctions being quite obvious - allowing them to plan ahead and tell his allies to take their money out etc. But suppose there’s only so much a billionaire can do before the authorities are alerted.
Thanks. |
i think putin underestimated the severity of the sanctions, the unity of the west and the sacrifices they were willing to take (europe's reliance on russian gas is way too high, particularly in germany).
one of his old speechwriters was on the radio earlier and he thought putin expected it to be more like crimea (very little fighting, swift retreat of a vastly outgunned ukrainian army) |  |
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| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:37 - Mar 2 with 1684 views | jaykay |
*i think some were busy getting their money out of russia, they didn't have time to think of sanctions
* my opinion with a little bit of truth no doubt |  |
| forensic experts say footers and spruces fingerprints were not found at the scene after the weekends rows |
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| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 20:08 - Mar 2 with 1565 views | Guthrum |
Partly the threat of sanctions was supposed to deter the invasion. But mainly because these things take time to set up - political decisionmaking, changing the rules, maybe rewriting software, giving legitimate people warning of what's happening. |  |
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| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 22:00 - Mar 2 with 1477 views | ClareBlue |
Historically the West has never formed a strong political consensus on how to react with sanctions.
There was no precedent for the unilateral decision making and decisiveness of the West that has happened this week.
It was perfectly reasonable for Putin to think the West would acts as they always had done - take time to decide on watered down sanctions with no real will to properly implement them, and not everyone being in agreement.
The difference is that this has not happened and it has caught everyone by surprise.
Plus the strength of Russian support in Ukraine is not as he thought and the strength of the Ukrainians to fight was underestimated by everybody.
I was in Kiev when it was under Martial Law after the Russians seized the ships in December 2018 in the Kerch Straight (which they actually returned in Nov 2019) and there was plenty of political support for Russia and the 2014 uprising was definitely not agreed by everyone.
This political support seems to have evaporated and is not manifesting itself on the ground. The very serious corruption in the Ukraine political class seems to have been targeted at the Russian sector of it. It is far from the case that the issues they have with corruption are solely down to the Russian part of the ruling elite.
Ukraine is not a democracy as we know it, journalists get assassinated, political opponents disappear, media outlets are banned and shut down, 8 years ago an elected President (within their system) was over thrown by violent protest.
Even if Ukraine keeps it's perceived independence, it will still have a long way to go.
The EU rush to sign it up will piss off the other ascension States who have been trying to meet joining conditions for years.
But I am surprised that Putin has underestimated their fighting capacity. He must remember most of the Serious KGB Agents were Ukrainian and the level of sacrifices they made when fighting Hitler. Maybe old age fades the memories.
I have travelled extensively in Eastern Europe and there is no doubt in my mind the most lawless place I have ever been to is Odessa, literally a clearing ground for humans, drugs, and weapons prior to shipment into Europe. [Post edited 2 Mar 2022 22:07]
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| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 22:33 - Mar 2 with 1410 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 22:00 - Mar 2 by ClareBlue |
Historically the West has never formed a strong political consensus on how to react with sanctions.
There was no precedent for the unilateral decision making and decisiveness of the West that has happened this week.
It was perfectly reasonable for Putin to think the West would acts as they always had done - take time to decide on watered down sanctions with no real will to properly implement them, and not everyone being in agreement.
The difference is that this has not happened and it has caught everyone by surprise.
Plus the strength of Russian support in Ukraine is not as he thought and the strength of the Ukrainians to fight was underestimated by everybody.
I was in Kiev when it was under Martial Law after the Russians seized the ships in December 2018 in the Kerch Straight (which they actually returned in Nov 2019) and there was plenty of political support for Russia and the 2014 uprising was definitely not agreed by everyone.
This political support seems to have evaporated and is not manifesting itself on the ground. The very serious corruption in the Ukraine political class seems to have been targeted at the Russian sector of it. It is far from the case that the issues they have with corruption are solely down to the Russian part of the ruling elite.
Ukraine is not a democracy as we know it, journalists get assassinated, political opponents disappear, media outlets are banned and shut down, 8 years ago an elected President (within their system) was over thrown by violent protest.
Even if Ukraine keeps it's perceived independence, it will still have a long way to go.
The EU rush to sign it up will piss off the other ascension States who have been trying to meet joining conditions for years.
But I am surprised that Putin has underestimated their fighting capacity. He must remember most of the Serious KGB Agents were Ukrainian and the level of sacrifices they made when fighting Hitler. Maybe old age fades the memories.
I have travelled extensively in Eastern Europe and there is no doubt in my mind the most lawless place I have ever been to is Odessa, literally a clearing ground for humans, drugs, and weapons prior to shipment into Europe. [Post edited 2 Mar 2022 22:07]
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Fascinating insight!
On the EU point I can’t imagine they really expect any fast-track accession, but assume it’s like a finger up to Moscow. On a related note, I saw that Georgia also formally applied today - the Lremlin must be stewing! | | | |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 23:11 - Mar 2 with 1364 views | ClareBlue |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 22:33 - Mar 2 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Fascinating insight!
On the EU point I can’t imagine they really expect any fast-track accession, but assume it’s like a finger up to Moscow. On a related note, I saw that Georgia also formally applied today - the Lremlin must be stewing! |
Yes, Georgia seeing an opportunity. It's an old, but effective, way of changing constitutional status. Do it whilst your opposition is war weary or actually at war or completely skint from war. Ireland did it (almost) after the 1st WW, India after 2nd WW, numerous examples of it working. I would suspect the birth country of Stalin wanting to join a non Slav institution like the EU is especially galling to an advocate of a greater Slavic Union such as Putin.
It's the Baltic States that are feeling the immediate pressure. I was in Lithuania before Christmas and they thought they would be before Ukraine. If the movement for the 4th Baltic State (Kalingrad) gets any momentum then we will have a serious situation there too. Some people say the Russians tried to sell it to Germany for a 50 Billion debt right off when the EU enlarged to include the Baltic Countries. But this is denied.
In theory, Germany has a valid claim to Kalingard, but they go out of their way to say they don't want it ever. To the extent they have put legal instruments in place to never have a territorial claim east of the Oder.
So the commentary that the Ukraine might be the start of further Russian territorial aims could be seen as having substance.
And these involve NATO and EU Countries. The unified and substantial response to Ukraine might well be because if the message does not go out now, it might have to go out with full NATO response when a NATO country is invaded, which is basically declaring war on Russia.
So maybe it is not because NATO and EU love Ukraine (there is no reason they should really), or that democracy needs protecting (it isn't one really and there are plenty of other democracies that we could support from aggressive neighbours), but more who is next and what we then have to do is likely to be much worse than what we have to do now.
So for those who say why isn't the same response against Israel, of USA in Iraq or Syria or any other conflict with an aggressor, the answer is that by not intervening in those there is unlikely to be a requirement for higher level interventions down the road. So the EU and Western Countries basically let them get on with in - be it the USA, UK, France or whoever is aggressive to a foreign Country.
But if Putin wins this then there is a real risk the Baltic Countries will be next, and that means us sending our children to fight in a foreign Country, for and against Countries we have little understanding about. | | | |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 08:09 - Mar 3 with 1250 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Yes indeed. It seems at least the EU and the USA did plan ahead a bit whilst after a week of war crimes and mass murder we are being asked to believe that the UK is still making a list of money launderers to be targeted - and giving them time to sell off assets. | |
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| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 08:24 - Mar 3 with 1231 views | Swansea_Blue |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:18 - Mar 2 by MattinLondon |
Oh I see. I always thought in potential war situations the aggressor would have taken into account worst case scenarios - sanctions being quite obvious - allowing them to plan ahead and tell his allies to take their money out etc. But suppose there’s only so much a billionaire can do before the authorities are alerted.
Thanks. |
Most of Putin’s wealth is in Russia. They were also planning ahead and had built up massive central bank reserves at the cost of austerity and hardship for the a Russian people. The US sanctions have stopped them accessing that. It seems that Putin was caught out by how severe the Western response has been, even though it may seem we haven’t done that much.
Worth remembering the sanctions will take time to but too. The currency valuation has been badly hit and interests rates are rising. It won’t be until they resume market trading and their people look to remortgage, etc., that there’ll be a huge impact on society as a whole.
I suspect there’s an element of not wanting to be the aggressor too. Putin doesn’t need an excuse, but if we have him one it suddenly becomes a lot easier for him to justify his attacks to his people. As it is, his justification for the invasion is built on lies and (hopefully) will trip him up at some point. The same goes for the international community. If we can be painted as the aggressor he’ll get support from some of the many countries who still haven’t condemned his action (something like 35 countries at the UN Security Council yesterday abstained from calling him out). |  |
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| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 02:08 - Jun 22 with 896 views | ClareBlue |
bumping this because as stated:
accelerated Ukraine membership of EU is now a reality
the real threat to us is Kalingrad and invasion of Lithuania, a NATO state
Lithuania have implemented EU sanctions, as required by EU, which prevent Russia transporting essentials to their territory and Russia have reacted by saying there will be serious consequences. Poland are the other country bordering Kalingrad and they have had their energy supply cut for not paying roubles as required by EU.
Yet Germany continue to look after German interest as the expense of the rest of Europe. which is nothing new in a historical context - 400 years not just 80.
I was in Budapest just before their elections in April and Hungry are again on the wrong side of History for the 3rd time in a hundred years.
I was in Poland recently and yet again the Polish are stepping up, but the EU think they are all evil because they don't understand the progressive gender inclusivity agenda, but take in 5 million refugees whilst the EU sells a European Project of inclusivity but spends billions on Russian oil that finances killing of Ukrainian children, to ensure Germans don't get cold this winter and cars can be manufactured that might, or might not, kill thousands by illegal emissions.
And despite the UK being lead by a narcissistic buffoon and a society that is perpetually criticised for actions the of the past, they have supported a country against an oppressor for no other reason that it is the right thing to do, and not even considered we might not be able to manufacture or sell our expensive cars as a consequence. | | | |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 07:04 - Jun 22 with 813 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Because Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014 and the west was supine in its response. All western countries, including the UK were effectively Russia’s allies. It you recall, our main concern, four years later in 2018, was Southgate’s obsession with 5 at the back at the World Cup, in, ahem, Russia.
Having been laundering Russian cash for two decades, the UK made any effective sanctions at the time pointless - even if anyone cared about Ukraine, which they didn’t. All requests for arms were totally ignored. Ukraine was considered a mafia state. In many ways it still is. Even Saint Zelensky has a starring role In embezzling state assets in the Panama Papers.
Fast forward eight years and an emboldened Putin expected Ukraine and the West to allow him to walk into the rest of the country en route to Moldova and Kalingrad. The exercises were designed to test the water, albeit at the cost of any surprise. After eight years of inaction, Putin rightly assumed the west would do very little - for the simple treason that they can’t. If anything this war has been welcomed by the west and China. It provides a real time arms selling symposium, drains Russia of fighting capability and dosh. And most importantly provides failing politicians to posture at another country’s expense - whilst blaming the war for all economic problems. By way of illustration - the UK army (the best in the world of course) now musters something like 70,000 troops, of which 15,000 are probably capable of fighting on the front line against Russia, albeit without the equipment to do so. | |
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| [Redacted] on 07:46 - Jun 22 with 755 views | victorywilhappen |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 18:26 - Mar 2 by MattinLondon |
In your opinion will his standing amongst his generals and financial backers be damaged as a result of this conflict? If it continues as it does.
One thing fooling the public but another thing the people in the know. |
[Redacted] |  | | |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 08:07 - Jun 22 with 715 views | WeWereZombies |
| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 02:08 - Jun 22 by ClareBlue |
bumping this because as stated:
accelerated Ukraine membership of EU is now a reality
the real threat to us is Kalingrad and invasion of Lithuania, a NATO state
Lithuania have implemented EU sanctions, as required by EU, which prevent Russia transporting essentials to their territory and Russia have reacted by saying there will be serious consequences. Poland are the other country bordering Kalingrad and they have had their energy supply cut for not paying roubles as required by EU.
Yet Germany continue to look after German interest as the expense of the rest of Europe. which is nothing new in a historical context - 400 years not just 80.
I was in Budapest just before their elections in April and Hungry are again on the wrong side of History for the 3rd time in a hundred years.
I was in Poland recently and yet again the Polish are stepping up, but the EU think they are all evil because they don't understand the progressive gender inclusivity agenda, but take in 5 million refugees whilst the EU sells a European Project of inclusivity but spends billions on Russian oil that finances killing of Ukrainian children, to ensure Germans don't get cold this winter and cars can be manufactured that might, or might not, kill thousands by illegal emissions.
And despite the UK being lead by a narcissistic buffoon and a society that is perpetually criticised for actions the of the past, they have supported a country against an oppressor for no other reason that it is the right thing to do, and not even considered we might not be able to manufacture or sell our expensive cars as a consequence. |
This is very interesting insight to add to your first post (and second post although, if I may say, that included a little too much opinion in comparison.)
Would you say that Russia is now pushing on with a process of slow strangulation of Eastern Ukraine that will see most of Donbas added to Crimea irrespective of sanctions that, whilst operating widely, do not have full Global effect? |  |
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| A couple of questions about the Ukrainian crisis. on 09:02 - Jun 22 with 693 views | Churchman |
Lack of political will, differing agendas, weakness, fear, mixed messaging, silent respect for Europe’s strongman.
Putin is perfectly clear on what he wants. It’s obvious, but the weak apologists will bury their heads in the sand when Ukraine is eaten and the stopcock on Nord2 squeaks open. Putin is fully aware of the many weaknesses of his enemies and of their strengths. He’s been able to play them all for the fools they are and as a nifty sideline crush any opposition in his own country.
His threat of nuclear weapons worked beautifully. The west ran for cover and the first battle was won. Putin knows now that the west will never use them and that they believe he might. That is why a no fly zone was not put in place the day before the invasion. It could and should have been. There was no political will to do it. If it had been, Russia would have been powerless to oppose it..
Supine Biden virtually opened the door for Russia, Ukraine went into denial, the U.K. was happy with the river of dirty money flowing through it (and the Tory party) and the EU? Cheap energy, a big trading partner and a totally misguided reading of Putin based on fear..
https://metro.co.uk/2022/04/23/ukraine-france-and-germany-sents-arms-to-russia-d
Sanctions have always been an easy panacea in that they look like you are doing something. The reality is they’ve blown up in the west’s faces. Putin’s one failure is the time the war is taking. He doesn’t care about the cost. The west is paying for that handsomely. However, it’ll take him time to rebuild his new province and his armed forces which at 69, he’s short of.
This article focuses on Germany and France, but rightly mentions US and U.K. failures and goes some way in my view to explaining your second to last paragraph.
https://www.epc.eu/en/Publications/The-EU-has-been-sleepwalking-into-war--But-it
All this propaganda about Putin being ill is nonsense in my view. Paranoid? Yes. At 69 he’s also time short so I think he will move on his next targets quite quickly. |  | | |
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