| Early relegation odds 15:37 - May 23 with 2016 views | Vegtablue |
Not as pessimistic as I thought they'd be. We are between 8/11 and 10/11 from what I've seen.
Leicester are as short as 4/9, which must mean they're hopeful of a decent points deduction. Everton are the same odds as us with some firms, in preparation for possible administration and the points deduction that would entail. Man City's trial is expected to conclude in the autumn, so they are just above Brighton and Chelsea with early odds of 25/1. Slim chance of City receiving their just desserts then, even if they'd be 1000/1 in normal circumstances. I was hoping to see the Weakest Link Goodbye banner back on duty. |  | | |  |
| Early relegation odds on 15:44 - May 23 with 1910 views | backinbeige |
Leicester...
* Still need to sell this summer to meet PSR
* Thus can't afford to buy anyone new
* Can't afford to renew expiring deals, including Wilfred Ndidi and Kelechi Iheanacho
* Face a possible points deduction next season
... so it's not looking great for them. |  |
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| Early relegation odds on 15:52 - May 23 with 1848 views | Guthrum |
| Early relegation odds on 15:44 - May 23 by backinbeige |
Leicester...
* Still need to sell this summer to meet PSR
* Thus can't afford to buy anyone new
* Can't afford to renew expiring deals, including Wilfred Ndidi and Kelechi Iheanacho
* Face a possible points deduction next season
... so it's not looking great for them. |
Pretty sure they have a transfer embargo, so are not allowed to buy (or re-sign) anyone without prtmission. |  |
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| Early relegation odds on 15:56 - May 23 with 1785 views | hoppy |
As a non-betting man, my understanding of what the odds are isn't great... if going by those odds, what would the table look like, as an example? |  |
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| Early relegation odds on 16:28 - May 23 with 1611 views | Vegtablue |
| Early relegation odds on 15:56 - May 23 by hoppy |
As a non-betting man, my understanding of what the odds are isn't great... if going by those odds, what would the table look like, as an example? |
The relegation market focuses its lens on the likelihood of things going terribly wrong, so attempting to convert these figures into a detailed league table would typically lead to a distorted picture. 25/1 Man City, for instance, are also favourites to win the league, as they may not receive a meaningful punishment and may even be found innocent of the charges (🙄). We're also missing Leeds or Saints, presently.
Our likelihood of relegation is currently valued between 45% and 55%, is all we can infer, once the bookies' margins are factored in. I wondered if they'd be more pessimistic at this stage, so was pleasantly surprised. More accurately, this is what they're prepared to risk when a full summer still lies ahead. | | | |
| Early relegation odds on 16:36 - May 23 with 1538 views | hoppy |
| Early relegation odds on 16:28 - May 23 by Vegtablue |
The relegation market focuses its lens on the likelihood of things going terribly wrong, so attempting to convert these figures into a detailed league table would typically lead to a distorted picture. 25/1 Man City, for instance, are also favourites to win the league, as they may not receive a meaningful punishment and may even be found innocent of the charges (🙄). We're also missing Leeds or Saints, presently.
Our likelihood of relegation is currently valued between 45% and 55%, is all we can infer, once the bookies' margins are factored in. I wondered if they'd be more pessimistic at this stage, so was pleasantly surprised. More accurately, this is what they're prepared to risk when a full summer still lies ahead. |
Thanks. That's a helpful explanation. Better than expected - I'll be happy with that. | |
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| Early relegation odds on 16:44 - May 23 with 1465 views | slade1 |
But on the other hand we are 2000/1 to win the Premier league and 100/1 to finish in the top 4. | | | |
| Early relegation odds on 18:06 - May 23 with 1222 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Early relegation odds on 15:56 - May 23 by hoppy |
As a non-betting man, my understanding of what the odds are isn't great... if going by those odds, what would the table look like, as an example? |
Not the greatest when thinking about who is most likely to win the league as it isn't the same risk they are hedging against. Hence why Man City (4 consecutive wins in a row) are 7th, not 1st.
Relegation
1 - Liverpool: 200000
2 - Arsenal: 200000
3 - Tottenham: 25000
4 - Newcastle: 15000
5 - Man Utd: 15000
6 - Aston Villa: 10000
7 - Man City: 2500
8 - Chelsea: 2000
9 - Brighton: 2000
10 - West Ham: 1400
11 - Crystal Palace: 700
12 - Bournemouth: 700
13 - Fulham: 500
14 - Brentford: 350
15 - Wolverhampton: 333
16 - Nottingham Forest: 200
17 - Ipswich: -110
18 - Everton: -110
19 - Leicester: -225
20 - :
Champions
1 - Man City: -110
2 - Arsenal: 225
3 - Liverpool: 800
4 - Chelsea: 2000
5 - Man Utd: 2500
6 - Newcastle: 2500
7 - Tottenham: 3300
8 - Aston Villa: 5000
9 - Brighton: 15000
10 - West Ham: 25000
11 - Bournemouth: 35000
12 - Crystal Palace: 35000
13 - Brentford: 50000
14 - Fulham: 50000
15 - Wolverhampton: 50000
16 - Everton: 100000
17 - Nottingham Forest: 100000
18 - Ipswich: 150000
19 - Leicester: 150000
20 - : [Post edited 23 May 2024 18:08]
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| Early relegation odds on 18:32 - May 23 with 1096 views | urbanpenguin |
| Early relegation odds on 15:44 - May 23 by backinbeige |
Leicester...
* Still need to sell this summer to meet PSR
* Thus can't afford to buy anyone new
* Can't afford to renew expiring deals, including Wilfred Ndidi and Kelechi Iheanacho
* Face a possible points deduction next season
... so it's not looking great for them. |
And hopefully they will need to find a new manager. |  | | |
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