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Well, 'likely' comes from Old English and Old Norse, whereas 'probably' comes from Latin.
So 'quite a long time' would be my guess. It's probable that the common folk used 'likely, and the Norman aristocracy would have been more likely to use 'probably'.
Depends on context, if something is *likely* then it is expected to happen and can often be used when discussing past events with a known outcome, while *probably* indicates more doubt or less nearness. *Probably* is used more with reference to future events.
It's a suitably vague and interchangeable difference to be honest.
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When did we start saying 'likely' instead of 'probably' and... on 08:53 - Nov 20 with 482 views