Forum | 20 points needed from 19 games - 5 wins needed - things look less daunting by unstableblue

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20 points needed from 19 games - 5 wins needed - things look less daunting 11:48 - Jan 4 with 1218 views

Following on from my original post below - latest musings on points required for survival.

I had thought 38 points would be needed, but suggest 35 should be enough. What do you think?

19 games to go and Chelsea win has had a big impact.

We have 15 points from 19 games - 3 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses - 0.79PPG (up from 0.67)

20 points needed from 19 games

1.05 PPG to the end of season, 0.26 up on what we did in the first half of the season.

And crucially this is a team that has gelled now, found a tweaked system and selection that works and seem ready to be active in the transfer window.

5 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses the potential need - and still a challenge but much less daunting

Our best chances of wins at home are Brighton, Saints, Wolves, Brentford and West Ham - the 5 wins right there… but we have the ability to get further results in unexpected games.

Or am I being too optimist?!

Last prediction:

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… by unstableblue 29 Dec 2024 21:49
20 games to go… I reckon 38 points needed, it won’t be a low survival total this season

We have 12 points, from 18 games - 2 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses - 0.67 PPG

26 points needed from 20 games

1.3 PPG to the end of season, double the rate we’ve had so far

6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses the potential need - daunting!

Our best chances of wins at home are Brighton, Saints, Wolves, Brentford and West Ham - 5 of the 6 needed!

That would still mean a number of good results at home and away.

For those who thought Leicester at home wasn’t a MUST win, sadly mistaken! And we came so close. The loss of Axel and Hirst has been huge. Those ridiculous saves by Onana such fine margins.

And it has been fine margins… we’ve only really been blown away by Newcastle, we’ve only been non competitive at West Ham, and home to Everton/Palace… but these were due to our own issues. A strong January and some players fit and the season could flip. McKenna is good enough.

Just a few wins over Jan/Feb would be massive and would turn the dial. We have to beat Saints on 1st Feb, it’s a MUST win. Probably Brighton as well before that.

But let’s go through the season fighting and enjoying the ride as fans. We’ll get some great results and performances along the way. Players need our support. No more no shows from the Portman Road terraces.

COYB

Poll:

How do you rate the new home kit out of 5?

20 points needed from 19 games - 5 wins needed - things look less daunting on 11:57 - Jan 4 with 1146 views

GlasgowBlue

I think that is entirely reasonable.

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20 points needed from 19 games - 5 wins needed - things look less daunting on 12:10 - Jan 4 with 1070 views

billlm

Your not being optimistic at all,
That one win at the right time (doesn't matter who it was) has brought us right back in our mini league,
Need to keep pushing atm 6 points out of 9 isn't relegation form is it,
The next two league games are crucial,
Looking forward to your update after these two games, fingers crossed,

20 points needed from 19 games - 5 wins needed - things look less daunting on 12:11 - Jan 4 with 1063 views

Guthrum

Other significant fixtures:

We've played an in-form ManC at the Etihad, which is a very different prospect to our home game, with their current situation, in just a couple of weeks.

If we can slightly improve on Arsenal (A) at Portman Road.

Will Postecoglou still be struggling at Spurs on 22nd February? Or will his replacement have been able to turn things around? Same with Amorim four days later.

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20 points needed from 19 games - 5 wins needed - things look less daunting on 12:13 - Jan 4 with 1052 views

Vic

It’s going to be a tough ask - but I’m more optimistic now than a few weeks ago. Our ppg is trending upwards and for me that’s the main thing. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to hope/expect that we’ll continue that trend in the 2nd half of the season. If we do there’s every chance we will survive by the skin of our teeth.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t need more than 35 pts though. And depending on who we sign this month injuries to Key players - chiefly Delap - could cripple us. He seems pretty robust but it’s a huge ask to expect him to play and be at the top of his game. It will be good to get Hirst back to share the load (even if it’s 20 mins at the end of each game) and another forward to help them.

Poll:

Right now, who would you rather have as Prime Minister?

Amorim and United under huge pressure on 12:24 - Jan 4 with 988 views

unstableblue

20 points needed from 19 games - 5 wins needed - things look less daunting on 12:11 - Jan 4 by Guthrum

As discussed on some other threads I originally thought talk of United getting sucked into the relegation battle was ridiculous

But they have Liverpool away in the league next, then Arsenal in the cup… I expect them to lose both - that would be SIX losses in a row.

They then have Saints at home on a Thurs night. That will be a MUST win. Under huge pressure.

Amorim’s decision to start Casemiro and Erickson in the middle against Newcastle has really unsettled the United fan base. A ridiculous decision. Which meant Zirksee was humiliated in being subbed very early to patch up the poor central midfield.

Putting two ageing and slow centre mids against Newcastle’s brilliant central 3 would concern me.

Doubt United will actually get drawn in - but certainly Town can go to United with some confidence - especially as we deserved to beat them clearly at PR

Poll:

How do you rate the new home kit out of 5?

Amorim and United under huge pressure on 12:32 - Jan 4 with 941 views

gainsboroughblue

Amorim and United under huge pressure on 12:24 - Jan 4 by unstableblue

Who'd have thought we'd have been rooting for Soton against Man Utd a few weeks ago.

Poll:

Favourite Norwich Relegation?

MUST wins and Delap competition on 12:34 - Jan 4 with 935 views

unstableblue

20 points needed from 19 games - 5 wins needed - things look less daunting on 12:13 - Jan 4 by Vic

Yes agree 35 points a minimum - a lot will depend on how Wolves prosper under their new manager and whether Cunha gets sold. Still convinced Everton may stay down in the fight, they normally have a better second half of the season, but don’t have money for Jan.

The club wanted three central strikers in the summer, and Hirst cannot be relied on due to injury record. His return will have a huge impact though.

With OShea beginning to thrive in the key Axel role, and Wolfie doing well alongside him, and with Broadhead emerging… striker is the key target this window (Sounds like we will bring in Godfrey for Axel competition).

Delap won’t be able to keep this up, and we’re on injury away from being screwed. Similarly with Hutchinson / hence Philiogene loan seems likely.

PS - we need to start making games NOW a MUST result… can’t wait given the points total discussed in this thread - Brighton home is perhaps a MUST draw; Saints at home is a MUST win

[Post edited 4 Jan 12:35]

Poll:

How do you rate the new home kit out of 5?

20 points needed from 19 games - 5 wins needed - things look less daunting on 12:58 - Jan 4 with 796 views

Daninthecampo

Definitely feasible as we are
Bring in a new no9 and right sided forward and it will look even better
If we continue playing 3 at the back,I can see Leicester, Everton, Fulham, Palace and Bournemouth could all be away wins

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