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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… 21:49 - Dec 29 with 4572 viewsunstableblue

20 games to go… I reckon 38 points needed, it won’t be a low survival total this season

We have 12 points, from 18 games - 2 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses - 0.67 PPG

26 points needed from 20 games

1.3 PPG to the end of season, double the rate we’ve had so far

6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses the potential need - daunting!

Our best chances of wins at home are Brighton, Saints, Wolves, Brentford and West Ham - 5 of the 6 needed!

That would still mean a number of good results at home and away.

For those who thought Leicester at home wasn’t a MUST win, sadly mistaken! And we came so close. The loss of Axel and Hirst has been huge. Those ridiculous saves by Onana such fine margins.

And it has been fine margins… we’ve only really been blown away by Newcastle, we’ve only been non competitive at West Ham, and home to Everton/Palace… but these were due to our own issues. A strong January and some players fit and the season could flip. McKenna is good enough.

Just a few wins over Jan/Feb would be massive and would turn the dial. We have to beat Saints on 1st Feb, it’s a MUST win. Probably Brighton as well before that.

But let’s go through the season fighting and enjoying the ride as fans. We’ll get some great results and performances along the way. Players need our support. No more no shows from the Portman Road terraces.

COYB

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 21:51 - Dec 29 with 3945 viewsNutkins_Return

That puts the task in perspective

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:00 - Dec 29 with 3872 viewsunstableblue

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 21:51 - Dec 29 by Nutkins_Return

That puts the task in perspective


The survival points needed in recent seasons are as follows:

23/24 27
22/23 35
21/22 36
20/21 27
19/20 35

So maybe 1 win less than I suggest
And don’t forget any points deductions for any other teams

Poll: How do you rate the new home kit out of 5?

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:11 - Dec 29 with 3779 viewsgainsboroughblue

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:00 - Dec 29 by unstableblue

The survival points needed in recent seasons are as follows:

23/24 27
22/23 35
21/22 36
20/21 27
19/20 35

So maybe 1 win less than I suggest
And don’t forget any points deductions for any other teams


Talk about picking our seasons. We'd have nearly been halfway to our target if it had been last season!

Forest and Everton struck gold getting their deductions when they did.

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:35 - Dec 29 with 3616 viewsITFCBlues

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:11 - Dec 29 by gainsboroughblue

Talk about picking our seasons. We'd have nearly been halfway to our target if it had been last season!

Forest and Everton struck gold getting their deductions when they did.


Hardly. If they got them this season, the current bottom 3 are just as hopeless!

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:48 - Dec 29 with 3530 viewsunstableblue

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:35 - Dec 29 by ITFCBlues

Hardly. If they got them this season, the current bottom 3 are just as hopeless!


Strongly disagree. All three promoted teams are superior to last seasons promoted/relegated.

And I think Town are significantly better than Burnley, Sheff U and Luton. And two of those had parachutes.

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:52 - Dec 29 with 3508 viewsITFCBlues

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:48 - Dec 29 by unstableblue

Strongly disagree. All three promoted teams are superior to last seasons promoted/relegated.

And I think Town are significantly better than Burnley, Sheff U and Luton. And two of those had parachutes.


The points on the board says otherwise I'm afraid

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 23:03 - Dec 29 with 3420 viewsFrimleyBlue

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:48 - Dec 29 by unstableblue

Strongly disagree. All three promoted teams are superior to last seasons promoted/relegated.

And I think Town are significantly better than Burnley, Sheff U and Luton. And two of those had parachutes.


Unfortunately we aren't as yet showing we are better than any of those 3 previously promoted sides.

It's not over yet. But if we are to have any chance of staying up we somehow need 3/4, new signings inside 2 weeks. Time isn't on our side.

a niche perspective
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 23:16 - Dec 29 with 3341 viewsTonytown

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 23:03 - Dec 29 by FrimleyBlue

Unfortunately we aren't as yet showing we are better than any of those 3 previously promoted sides.

It's not over yet. But if we are to have any chance of staying up we somehow need 3/4, new signings inside 2 weeks. Time isn't on our side.


Plus a fit and ready to play Hirst for the games after the FA Cup and Axel back before the end of January too
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 23:46 - Dec 29 with 3231 viewsGuthrum

I don't see why you think it will be such a high bar for survival this season. The teams around the bottom are not accruing points at that rate and some just above are struggling, too.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 06:36 - Dec 30 with 2870 viewstextbackup

We aren’t staying up. It’s so obvious we aren’t good enough to. 2 wins all season and for some reason some think that the second half of the season will be different.

We’ll be good again... one day
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 07:29 - Dec 30 with 2799 viewsBenters

17th is the target I reckon we will just about do that.

Gentlybentley
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 07:53 - Dec 30 with 2743 viewsITFCBlues

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 23:46 - Dec 29 by Guthrum

I don't see why you think it will be such a high bar for survival this season. The teams around the bottom are not accruing points at that rate and some just above are struggling, too.


Just above are starting to pick up points though.

Palace are pulling clear, Wolves with 7 points in 3 & Everton keep on plucking points in games you wouldn't expect. See Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City games.

We just don't have anywhere near enough firepower to stay up. Where will the goals come from? We look completely toothless. This is unless we have a huge January window of course, but it's hard to see us getting in the required quality unless we have another 50m plus to spend and we surely don't have that?

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 08:07 - Dec 30 with 2682 viewsC_HealyIsAPleasure

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:11 - Dec 29 by gainsboroughblue

Talk about picking our seasons. We'd have nearly been halfway to our target if it had been last season!

Forest and Everton struck gold getting their deductions when they did.


On this day last season, Luton were 3rd bottom with 14pts from 19 games, exactly the same as last year. 17th had a point more however had played an extra game, but stepping them back to the same number of games saw them on 16pts, again same as this season

It’s trending the same way, however the OP is wrong with those totals as 27pts wouldn’t have seen any of the relegated teams survive, they needed 32 to overhaul Forest - and that’s after a points deduction

Highlighting crass stupidity since sometime around 2010
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 08:10 - Dec 30 with 2666 viewsWeWereZombies

Agree with most of that but this is football and we cannot rely on results,either our own or the other teams in the league. So I suggest we forget about Brighton and Southampton as 'must win' games and just focus on the next game for the rest of the season as the game we need to win. Bring on the Chelsea.

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 08:38 - Dec 30 with 2590 viewsthorpedo

I don't think it will a high total needed to survive. We are now half way through the season - if the points totals are all doubled Wolves would currently survive on 32 points. Teams at the bottom often grab 'unexpected' results near the end of the season as desperation kicks in, but I think 33-35 points would be enough to stay up.

Thorpedo

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 08:45 - Dec 30 with 2560 viewsBlue_Heath

I have accepted we are down, realistically there is no chance. The points total will likely exceed 40 to stay up given the seasons Bournemouth, Forest etc are having. The Wolves and Everton's along with Palace will pull away over next 6-8 games. I am just trying to 'enjoy' it which is difficult to be honest.

I am more concerned about next season, what happens to the non starters will they want to stay knowing if we are promoted they are bench warmers? Also not so sure the Delap's/Davis's/Hutch's are as saleable as people think. The most important issue for me is can we bounce back straight away?
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 08:57 - Dec 30 with 2501 viewstextbackup

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 08:45 - Dec 30 by Blue_Heath

I have accepted we are down, realistically there is no chance. The points total will likely exceed 40 to stay up given the seasons Bournemouth, Forest etc are having. The Wolves and Everton's along with Palace will pull away over next 6-8 games. I am just trying to 'enjoy' it which is difficult to be honest.

I am more concerned about next season, what happens to the non starters will they want to stay knowing if we are promoted they are bench warmers? Also not so sure the Delap's/Davis's/Hutch's are as saleable as people think. The most important issue for me is can we bounce back straight away?


Bournemouth and forest aren’t even remotely considered relegation threats, so their current tally/season they are having doesn’t matter at all

We’ll be good again... one day
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 09:01 - Dec 30 with 2441 viewsGuthrum

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 07:53 - Dec 30 by ITFCBlues

Just above are starting to pick up points though.

Palace are pulling clear, Wolves with 7 points in 3 & Everton keep on plucking points in games you wouldn't expect. See Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City games.

We just don't have anywhere near enough firepower to stay up. Where will the goals come from? We look completely toothless. This is unless we have a huge January window of course, but it's hard to see us getting in the required quality unless we have another 50m plus to spend and we surely don't have that?


Spurs and Brentford only got draws. ManU lost, WHam got thumped. We picked up points only a couple of matches ago, came close to getting something at Arsenal.

Our "firepower"is no less than it was. Likely to get better with injury returns and a signing or two in January (which we can afford).

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 09:05 - Dec 30 with 2417 viewsWeWereZombies

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 08:57 - Dec 30 by textbackup

Bournemouth and forest aren’t even remotely considered relegation threats, so their current tally/season they are having doesn’t matter at all


Tally may not be relevant to us but how they perform against the teams immediately above us is quite important. See also Newcastle. I prefer Amorim ball to Howe ball but am still hoping for a comfortable away win today just in case Man. Utd. completely fall apart during the rest of the season.

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 09:21 - Dec 30 with 2299 viewsBlue_Heath

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 08:57 - Dec 30 by textbackup

Bournemouth and forest aren’t even remotely considered relegation threats, so their current tally/season they are having doesn’t matter at all


At the start of the season they would have been, hence my point. Other than Liverpool it seems anyone can beat anyone above the bottom 3.
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 09:35 - Dec 30 with 2224 viewsBloomBlue

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 22:00 - Dec 29 by unstableblue

The survival points needed in recent seasons are as follows:

23/24 27
22/23 35
21/22 36
20/21 27
19/20 35

So maybe 1 win less than I suggest
And don’t forget any points deductions for any other teams


Are those totals technically correct?

Surely to survive you have to finish 4th from the bottom, meaning the correct survival points total should be higher than the team who finished 4th from bottom.

For example in 23/24 Forest finish 17th with 32 points so to survive that season means we would require 33 points. 27 points would mean us finishing 3rd bottom

In 22/23 Everton finish 17th with 36 points, meaning to survive in 17th we would need 37 points. If we had finished that season with 35 points we would have been relegated.
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 09:42 - Dec 30 with 2182 viewsNthQldITFC

It must be really cold outside; everybody's balls seem to have shrunk.

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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 09:48 - Dec 30 with 2159 viewsGuthrum

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 08:45 - Dec 30 by Blue_Heath

I have accepted we are down, realistically there is no chance. The points total will likely exceed 40 to stay up given the seasons Bournemouth, Forest etc are having. The Wolves and Everton's along with Palace will pull away over next 6-8 games. I am just trying to 'enjoy' it which is difficult to be honest.

I am more concerned about next season, what happens to the non starters will they want to stay knowing if we are promoted they are bench warmers? Also not so sure the Delap's/Davis's/Hutch's are as saleable as people think. The most important issue for me is can we bounce back straight away?


Don't understand how anyone could have given up when not even half-way through the season. Quite apart from the number of points available, all sorts of other things could happen. Who in August would have predicted ManC's crash?

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 09:58 - Dec 30 with 2114 viewsbilllm

26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 07:53 - Dec 30 by ITFCBlues

Just above are starting to pick up points though.

Palace are pulling clear, Wolves with 7 points in 3 & Everton keep on plucking points in games you wouldn't expect. See Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City games.

We just don't have anywhere near enough firepower to stay up. Where will the goals come from? We look completely toothless. This is unless we have a huge January window of course, but it's hard to see us getting in the required quality unless we have another 50m plus to spend and we surely don't have that?


Correct attack is woeful,
Why were going down
Wasting time on that Broja deal has cost so much,
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26 points from 20 games?! Where we need the wins… on 10:18 - Dec 30 with 2025 views_clive_baker_

If we take a step back and look at it objectively we're just some way short of being good enough sadly. Its not overly surprising when you consider how hard promoted teams have found life at this level in recent seasons, and the gap only seems to be growing. Then you factor in the rapid ascent we've made and that we're not only carrying L1 financials but L1 players I would argue in some cases. At best Championship players, but a few we've had to rely on this season aren't even particularly proven at that level.

Its a massive jump, and that's been evident. What we've done well is we're really well set up, disciplined, tactically sound, we're doing what we can with what we've got IMO, and we've remained competitive in most games but lacked a real cutting edge, and that bit of quality and depth just isn't there. No other club at this level looks to their bench to bring on an Al-Hamadi or a Harry Clarke, with the greatest of respect to those players.

I'm pretty much resigned to a 2nd half of the season where we'll remain dogged and committed, we'll keep giving teams a game and we'll pick up points, but I don't think we've got it in us to outperform the likes of Wolves and Palace by 4 or 5 points over 19 games.

Progress isn't always linear though, come May whatever happens we'll be a damn sight stronger than we were 2 years prior. I think we've bought well for the future, and if we are to be relegated then we have the nucleus of a good side that has a very good chance to come back stronger. You only have to look at Burnley and Sheff United to see how strong they are off the back of limp relegations, the gap between a middling PL side like Man United or Brentford and a middling Championship one like Bristol City or Preston is huge.

No doubt 1 or 2 big ticket players will move on, but even if we lose Delap and Davis for example and trade 1 or 2 like Ben Johnson, maybe Axel will move on, we could still have most of the likes of O'Shea, Greaves, Hutchinson, J. Clarke, Burns, Chaplin, Szmodics, Broadhead, Morsy, Hirst, Ogbene next season, which is the basis of a strong side. Jack Taylor, Humphreys, Burgess, Woofly also in the mix. Plus a few choice additions and we should be a force and an opportunity to come back and build again from a higher base.
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