| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. 10:04 - Feb 25 with 3188 views | TractorFrog |
Based on the Axel Tuanzebe thread , here are those stats for every player who has started a game this year. I have calculated PPG in games they started, PPG in games they didn't start (sub appearances count here), then done the first number minus the second. So if the score is greater than 0, we get more points with them, and for a score less than 0, we get more points without them. Note that this exercise is most useful for players who have done about half the games, as if they have only played 1 or 2 games then it can be heavily influenced by a freak result, and the same if they have only missed 1 or 2 games. So here are the results
EDIT: (in brackets is the number of games played out of 26, or the number of games missed: whichever is fewer. To demonstrate that the higher the number, the more useful the data is. So the maximum number here is 13):
1. Liam Delap +0.708 (2)
2. Sam Morsy +0.562 (5)
3. Jens Cajuste +0.413 (10)
4. Nathan Broadhead +0.409 (4)
5. Dara O'Shea +0.362 (3)
6. Conor Townsend +0.360 (1)
7. Cameron Burgess +0.238 (10)
8. Wes Burns +0.179 (12)
9. Axel Tuanzebe +0.179 (12)
10. Omari Hutchinson +0.167 (2)
11. Harry Clarke +0.114 (4)
12. Sammie Szmodics +0.077 (13)
13. Aro Muric +0.042 (8)
14. Ben Johnson +0.020 (9)
15. Christian Walton +0.017 (6)
16. Cheo Ogbene +0.014 (3)
17. Luke Woolfenden -0.042 (8)
18. Conor Chaplin -0.113 (7)
19. Julio Enciso -0.167 (2)
20. Alex Palmer -0.167 (2)
21. Jacob Greaves -0.238 (10)
22. Leif Davis -0.360 (1)
23. Kalvin Phillips -0.440 (12)
24. Jack Clarke -0.633 (6)
25. George Hirst -0.680 (1)
26. Jack Taylor -0.680 (1)
27. Massimo Luongo -0.708 (2)
28. Jaden Philogene -0.708 (2)
29. Ben Godfrey -0.708 (2)
I would say these numbers make the best reading for Sam Morsy, Jens Cajuste and Cameron Burgess, and are not so good for Kalvin Phillips, Jacob Greaves and Jack Clarke. [Post edited 25 Feb 11:05]
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| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 10:11 - Feb 25 with 3128 views | positivity |
interesting, but the sub impact is so important that you miss a lot by excluding it. it's a tricky one to calculate |  |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 10:27 - Feb 25 with 3057 views | Chris_ITFC |
Surprised Delap and Davis are so far apart, having presumably started very similar games.
Harsh on Taylor considering he single-handedly won us 2 of our 17 points!  |  |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 10:39 - Feb 25 with 3003 views | TractorFrog |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 10:11 - Feb 25 by positivity |
interesting, but the sub impact is so important that you miss a lot by excluding it. it's a tricky one to calculate |
This is true, but unlike last season, I'm not sure there are many games where you can say a substitute has made a significant difference to the result to the point that it is unfair not to include them in these stats.
The Jack Taylor example at Wolves as referenced above is probably the only really significant one, although I think that goal was more down to Jack Clarke's delivery, also a sub of course. Also, I felt bad for not giving Woolfenden the point for Villa away, but giving it to Enciso, for example. And it seemed very harsh to give Ogbene a loss for Brentford when we were 2-0 up when he went off. But I don't think the sub impact makes a massive difference here. | |
| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 10:42 - Feb 25 with 2983 views | TractorFrog |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 10:27 - Feb 25 by Chris_ITFC |
Surprised Delap and Davis are so far apart, having presumably started very similar games.
Harsh on Taylor considering he single-handedly won us 2 of our 17 points! |
Liam Delap only missed Brentford and Newcastle, both defeats, so his PPG against is 0. Leif Davis only missed Aston Villa, so his PPG against is 1. That is why Delap's overall score is approximately 1 higher than Davis' (a massive difference). It demonstrates why the system isn't so useful if players only missed 1 or 2 games, as it is the same as if a player only played 1 or 2 games. But maybe you could suggest that Delap not starting contributed to the defeats at Brentford and Newcastle, while we had a better chance against Villa because of Townsend starting rather than Davis. There needs to be more games without Delap and Davis to get an idea whether those games were anomalous results or if it was significant.
Once you get to about five games, I think that is enough for a pattern to begin to emerge. That we have only picked up one point in the five games that Sam Morsy didn't start feels quite significant. [Post edited 25 Feb 10:47]
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| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 11:07 - Feb 25 with 2892 views | TrumptonBlue |
While we're on stats, I have been looking at the number of minutes played by the old boys and the new signings in each game. Here are our games ranked by the number of minutes played by the promotion winners (so, for example, against Liverpool, 777 of the 990 (11x90) minutes were played by players who were here last season). Above the line are games in which the old players have played the majority of the minutes, below the line are games in which the new players have. Home games in caps.
777 LIVERPOOL L 0-2
630 Wolves W 2-1
630 NEWCASTLE L 0-4
614 CHELSEA W 2-0
597 EVERTON L 0-2
574 MAN UTD D 1-1
565 Man City L 1-4
565 BRIGHTON L 0-2
556 Nottm For L 0-1
548 BOURNEMOUTH L 1-2
519 MAN CITY L 0-6
509 C PALACE L 0-1
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488 Southampton D 1-1
471 Tottenham W 2-1
470 Fulham D 2-2
467 Brentford L 3-4
461 FULHAM D 1-1
456 LEICESTER D 1-1
450 Brighton D 0-0
445 Liverpool L 1-4
435 SOUTHAMPTON L 1-2
403 A VILLA D 2-2
366 West Ham L 1-4
306 TOTTENHAM L 1-4
300 Arsenal L 0-1
195 A Villa D 1-1
Results in games with more minutes from 'old' players
P12 W2 D1 L9 F7 A26
Results in games with more minutes from 'new' players
P14 W1 D7 L6 F17 A28
I don't think you can draw many conclusions from this, as there are good and bad performances across the board, but, hey, it passed some time.
It's noticeable that two of our three wins, along with decent displays against Liverpool and Manchester United, are at the top of the list, and that we haven't won any of the 12 games in which the new players have contributed the most minutes. On the other hand, PPG is higher in the new-player dominated games (0.71 vs 0.58), and we seem less likely to score and easier to beat when using the old players. |  | | |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 11:58 - Feb 25 with 2768 views | TractorFrog |
This is last season, based on the same formula. Here, there are 46 games rather than 26 which makes it more useful, but the fact that substitutes were so crucial last year is a flaw in this method.
1. Janoi Donacien +0.977 (3)
2. Sam Morsy +0.643 (4)
3. George Hirst +0.515 (22)
4. Lewis Travis +0.452 (4)
5. Leif Davis +0.450 (3)
6. Nathan Broadhead +0.418 (17)
7. Brandon Williams +0.349 (8)
8. Luke Woolfenden +0.292 (6)
9. Omari Hutchinson +0.288 (20)
10. Kieffer Moore +0.286 (14)
11. Cameron Burgess +0.257 (8)
12. Axel Tuanzebe +0.058 (16)
13. Wes Burns -0.069 (15)
14. Freddie Ladapo -0.091 (2)
15. Jack Taylor -0.103 (7)
16. Massimo Luongo -0.168 (9)
17. George Edmundson -0.239 (10)
18. Marcus Harness -0.271 (7)
19. Conor Chaplin -0.452 (4)
20. Harry Clarke -0.629 (21)
21. Jeremy Sarmiento -0.771 (5)
22. Kayden Jackson -0.799 (9)
23. Lee Evans -1.111 (1)
24. Dominic Ball -1.111 (1)
25. Cameron Humphreys -1.111 (1)
26. Ali Al-Hamadi -1.111 (1)
This one particularly shows how important George Hirst and Nathan Broadhead were last season, while it isn't great for Harry Clarke. Janoi Donacien is at the top because he played just three games, and we won all three when he was there. | |
| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 12:22 - Feb 25 with 2714 views | EsherBlueStu |
This would lead to an optimum team of:
Muric
Tuanzebe O’Shea Burgess Townsend
Morsy Cajuste
Burns Hutchinson Broadhead
Delap
What do we think? | | | |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 12:47 - Feb 25 with 2642 views | EuanTown |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 12:22 - Feb 25 by EsherBlueStu |
This would lead to an optimum team of:
Muric
Tuanzebe O’Shea Burgess Townsend
Morsy Cajuste
Burns Hutchinson Broadhead
Delap
What do we think? |
Other than the keeper I would agree that team is not bad. Good mix for a draw? |  | | |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 12:57 - Feb 25 with 2619 views | bsw72 |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 11:58 - Feb 25 by TractorFrog |
This is last season, based on the same formula. Here, there are 46 games rather than 26 which makes it more useful, but the fact that substitutes were so crucial last year is a flaw in this method.
1. Janoi Donacien +0.977 (3)
2. Sam Morsy +0.643 (4)
3. George Hirst +0.515 (22)
4. Lewis Travis +0.452 (4)
5. Leif Davis +0.450 (3)
6. Nathan Broadhead +0.418 (17)
7. Brandon Williams +0.349 (8)
8. Luke Woolfenden +0.292 (6)
9. Omari Hutchinson +0.288 (20)
10. Kieffer Moore +0.286 (14)
11. Cameron Burgess +0.257 (8)
12. Axel Tuanzebe +0.058 (16)
13. Wes Burns -0.069 (15)
14. Freddie Ladapo -0.091 (2)
15. Jack Taylor -0.103 (7)
16. Massimo Luongo -0.168 (9)
17. George Edmundson -0.239 (10)
18. Marcus Harness -0.271 (7)
19. Conor Chaplin -0.452 (4)
20. Harry Clarke -0.629 (21)
21. Jeremy Sarmiento -0.771 (5)
22. Kayden Jackson -0.799 (9)
23. Lee Evans -1.111 (1)
24. Dominic Ball -1.111 (1)
25. Cameron Humphreys -1.111 (1)
26. Ali Al-Hamadi -1.111 (1)
This one particularly shows how important George Hirst and Nathan Broadhead were last season, while it isn't great for Harry Clarke. Janoi Donacien is at the top because he played just three games, and we won all three when he was there. |
I'm not sure I am clear on what this is approach is supposed to tell us or whether it can be called measure of statistical impact as there is no weighting on opposition or playing time.
It's more a points ratio analysis based on a binary played/did not play and is therefore weighted in favour of those who have played more games as they will have had more chance to accrue points.
The fact that we know how critical players like Sarmiento, Chaplin and Luongo were last season, yet they feature negatively on this list - which suggests that their impact in a team was more significant than their net points return . . . |  | | |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 13:52 - Feb 25 with 2509 views | TractorFrog |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 12:57 - Feb 25 by bsw72 |
I'm not sure I am clear on what this is approach is supposed to tell us or whether it can be called measure of statistical impact as there is no weighting on opposition or playing time.
It's more a points ratio analysis based on a binary played/did not play and is therefore weighted in favour of those who have played more games as they will have had more chance to accrue points.
The fact that we know how critical players like Sarmiento, Chaplin and Luongo were last season, yet they feature negatively on this list - which suggests that their impact in a team was more significant than their net points return . . . |
Conor Chaplin only didn’t start four games in 2023/24, but we won three of those four games. Sam Morsy missed four games but I think we drew one and lost one of those (I don’t have the data on me right now). It suggests that it cost us more when Morsy was missing but didn’t so much when Chaplin was missing. But four games isn’t a huge amount, it could just be a coincidence. The more games, the less likely it is to be a coincidence. It would be useful, for example, to calculate the average position of the opposition in the games as well, but that would take a lot longer.
The substitute thing is a different matter. It is very unusual for a team to have been so effective at using substitutes as we were last season. But the starting players almost always do at least two thirds of the game, so generally the result is mostly down to them. Of course, last season was unusual with all the late winners. | |
| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 14:08 - Feb 25 with 2469 views | NthQldITFC |
That's great, I love a good stat - the (relevance) figure working both ways is a really nice way to present it too. To go further you could maybe integrate a factor for league position of opponent, either now for simplicity, or at the time of the match? |  |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 16:07 - Feb 25 with 2344 views | TractorFrog |
I noticed my own score on this is +1.171 (8 points from 5 games vs 9 points from 21 games).
More important to this team than Liam Delap :) | |
| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 16:11 - Feb 25 with 2313 views | bsw72 |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 13:52 - Feb 25 by TractorFrog |
Conor Chaplin only didn’t start four games in 2023/24, but we won three of those four games. Sam Morsy missed four games but I think we drew one and lost one of those (I don’t have the data on me right now). It suggests that it cost us more when Morsy was missing but didn’t so much when Chaplin was missing. But four games isn’t a huge amount, it could just be a coincidence. The more games, the less likely it is to be a coincidence. It would be useful, for example, to calculate the average position of the opposition in the games as well, but that would take a lot longer.
The substitute thing is a different matter. It is very unusual for a team to have been so effective at using substitutes as we were last season. But the starting players almost always do at least two thirds of the game, so generally the result is mostly down to them. Of course, last season was unusual with all the late winners. |
I would suggest that the impact of the substitute has become hugely influential since the move to 5 subs was introduced. I have not got time to look for the latest stats but in the PL from 20/21 to around 1/3 of the way through the 23/24 season, goals from subs went from 8.8% (90/1024) to 15.4% (57/370) - that is up by 75% in just 3.3 years, and increased yearly (9.5% and 12.2%). | | | |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 16:14 - Feb 25 with 2307 views | positivity |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 16:07 - Feb 25 by TractorFrog |
I noticed my own score on this is +1.171 (8 points from 5 games vs 9 points from 21 games).
More important to this team than Liam Delap :) |
i make our "on tv" score -0.699 (1 from 7 vs 16 from 19), good job tomorrow's game's not on...
extrapolating that over every game would put us level with wolves, damn that sky/amazon/tnt! | |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 16:35 - Feb 25 with 2254 views | itfcjoe |
FBRef breaks down stats for time on vs off the pitch and some of that is interesting
The only player who has a positive goal difference when on the pitch is Ogbene (4F vs 3A in 238 mins)
Broadhead and Enciso are 6v6 and 2v2 respectively
For those who have played significant minutes (i.e. at least 500), the worst performing are
Walton - 5v16
Clarke - 7v21
Burns - 7v23
Szmodics, Chaplin, Muric and Tuanzebe are the only ones who come out at less that -1 per 90.
There's loads more on there too, but none of it looks great! |  |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 17:49 - Feb 25 with 2111 views | TrumptonBlue |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 16:35 - Feb 25 by itfcjoe |
FBRef breaks down stats for time on vs off the pitch and some of that is interesting
The only player who has a positive goal difference when on the pitch is Ogbene (4F vs 3A in 238 mins)
Broadhead and Enciso are 6v6 and 2v2 respectively
For those who have played significant minutes (i.e. at least 500), the worst performing are
Walton - 5v16
Clarke - 7v21
Burns - 7v23
Szmodics, Chaplin, Muric and Tuanzebe are the only ones who come out at less that -1 per 90.
There's loads more on there too, but none of it looks great! |
Yes, I keep these sort of records but use goal average rather than goal difference. It's flawed in plenty of ways - the best players who play every game will inevitably drift towards the mean, the figures are easily skewed by a big win or defeat, but I find it interesting nonetheless.
This season, for outfield players who have played 500 mins or more:
(Goal Average; F-A; Total Mins)
1. Szmodics (0.65; 11-17, 987)
2. Cajuste (0.52; 14-27, 1185)
3. Chaplin (0.50; 6-12; 611)
4. O'Shea (0.47; 22-47; 2043)
5. Delap (0.46; 19-41; 1940)
6. Johnson (0.46; 12-26; 914)
7. Greaves (0.45; 14-31; 1440)
8. Tuanzebe (0.45; 9-20; 1020)
9. Woolfenden (0.44; 8-18; 826)
-- Team (0.44; 24-54) --
10. Burgess (0.43; 10-23; 900)
11. Morsy (0.43; 19-44; 1912)
12. Davis (0.42; 22-52; 2203)
13. Phillips (0.40; 10-25; 1033)
14. Hutchinson (0.40; 18-45; 2051)
15. Clarke J (0.33; 7-21; 693)
16. Burns (0.30; 7-23; 933) | | | |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 19:28 - Feb 25 with 1985 views | amphibioustractor |
This is a great thread. | | | |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 19:35 - Feb 25 with 1953 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Some very interesting analysis here. Not at all sure what it tells us apart from that Donacien has been our standout performer for the past 2 seasons! |  |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 18:09 - Mar 11 with 1124 views | TractorFrog |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 14:08 - Feb 25 by NthQldITFC |
That's great, I love a good stat - the (relevance) figure working both ways is a really nice way to present it too. To go further you could maybe integrate a factor for league position of opponent, either now for simplicity, or at the time of the match? |
I thought of a way to do this, to include league position of opposition and also including minutes played and taking into account whether the other players in the team have a positive score.
The data I need is how many minutes for each player, each game. Is there a quick place to find this data without having to check every match manually? | |
| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 19:33 - Mar 11 with 1037 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 18:09 - Mar 11 by TractorFrog |
I thought of a way to do this, to include league position of opposition and also including minutes played and taking into account whether the other players in the team have a positive score.
The data I need is how many minutes for each player, each game. Is there a quick place to find this data without having to check every match manually? |
The data is within the fixtures page on this site but I am not sure if it is easy to extract. Gav might be able to help? https://www.twtd.co.uk/ipswich-town-fixtures/ | |
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| Statistical impact of Ipswich players this season. on 20:49 - Mar 11 with 960 views | TractorFrog |
Thank you, unfortunately it looks like my idea might not work anyway. | |
| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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