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[Blog] Are We Looking Up or Down?
Written by CherryHintonBlue on Sunday, 6th Feb 2011 20:14

Chris Rand makes his annual prediction of the points required to make the play-offs - and avoid relegation.

We're in a very strange season, statistically speaking, and making predictions in extreme conditions is always dubious. When trying to forecast the end of season table, I tend to look at the points needed for six-and-a-halfth place, and for twenty-one-and-a-halfth place, although obviously if the gaps between 6th/7th or 21st/22nd places are large, a team might need fewer than my prediction to get into the play-offs, and more than my prediction to avoid relegation.

Now, this season, at the halfway stage, was remarkable at both ends of the table. In the nine seasons Town have been back in the Championship, the points required for six-and-a-halfth place at the mid-point of the season has never been so low (just 34.5) and the points for twenty-one-and-a-halfth place never so high (24.5). Consequently, the gap from relegation to play-offs is *tiny* in comparison with most seasons: just 10 points at the mid-point of the season when usually it's at least 15, and has been as high as over 21.

So we have a very strange season.

And things get worse when it comes to forecasting, because the total number of points is extremely high too (that means there have been fewer draws, where only two points are awarded per match). In other seasons where the table has been 'compressed' (or the points distributed more evenly than normal), there's been a low number of points in total (more draws). Not this season: quite the opposite in fact. Loads of points being won, but way more evenly distributed than usual.

If you want confirmation, QPR had 47 points at the mid-point of the season. That's very average for a table-topping side, yet they're considered solid favourites. At the other end, of the teams at the bottom at the halfway stage in the last decade, only Colchester three years ago had more points than Preston's 19 this season. Normally one or two teams are considerably further adrift.

Nevertheless, it's remarkable how the number of points at the halfway stage translates fairly consistently to the end of the season: for the play-offs, it normally ends up being twice the number of points at the halfway stage less about half a point, and for relegation, it normally ends up being twice the number of points at the halfway stage plus about six points. The normal margin for error on this at the top is less than two points either way, although at the bottom it's a good three points.

Based on this then, I'd predict that the mid-point between 6th and 7th place this year will be an extraordinarily low 67-71 points, and the mid-point between 21st and 22nd place this year will be an extraordinarily high 52-58 points.

And you really want me to stick my neck out, which you will, let's say 70 points will see a team into the play-offs and 54 points could see a team relegated. Not as comfortable a prediction as most years, but let's see!

From Town's point of view, with 18 games left, it means that to be relegated we'd need to average less than a point a game, which was a level even Roy Keane didn't fall to until just before his dismissal. To reach the play-offs, we need about 33 more points, on average a fraction under two points a game, which is possible, but very tough.

Eight of the remaining nine home matches are against sides outside the current top eight, and are therefore winnable (the other one is the local derby, where anything can happen). Something like 20 points from our remaining home games isn't an unreasonable target. But finding 10-12 points from the away fixtures may be: five are against top-eight sides, so we'd probably need three wins from the games at Barnsley, Bristol City, Burnley and Doncaster, which would certainly be a play-off-standard level of achievement.

Me? I'll just be happy if the team continues to produce the entertainment it did on Saturday. After the last few seasons, that would be refreshing enough.




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tractorboy2434 added 20:46 - Feb 6
Whilst an upturn in form and entertainment is welcome I simply doubt that this team is capable of reaching the play offs, we had no creativity prior to the arrival of Bullard, a point which PJ was quick to realise, and our strikers are average to poor, the current 3 game unbeaten run is due to the goals scored by the midfield which although welcome is unlikely to last until May, therefore any finish above mid table would be remarkable and is utterly dependant on Bullard's fitness.
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CherryHintonBlue added 20:58 - Feb 6
I have to agree with that, tractorboy2434. Only twice in the last 9 seasons has a team come from the bottom half of the table at the mid-point of the season to make the playoffs: Palace in 2003/04 and Preston in 2004/05. So history is not on our side.

In the past two seasons, all the promoted and playoff teams were in the top 7 at the mid-point of the season, and with one exception in the last decade (Sunderland in 2006/07), the automatic promotion spots have been taken from teams in the top four at the halfway stage.

At the other end, four times in the last six seasons, the bottom three teams at the mid-point of the season were still there at the end. No team has fallen from the top half at the mid-point of the season into the relegation zone at the end, although Walsall in 2003/04 (13th at the halfway stage, 22nd at the end) almost proved to be the exception.
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Trotsky added 00:05 - Feb 7
Always enjoy your blogs Chris, cheers for this. One point I would definitely make, when Keane found the spine of his team in late 2009, and was able to call regularly on the services of McAuley, Delaney, Leadbitter and Norris, with some assistance from the emerging Wickham, our ability to pick up points was none too bad. In fact we carried on with that points gathering for the first ten games or so of this season too, but we definitely fell apart when we lost McAuley & Norris, Delaney was coming back from injury etc and confidence dipped and our terrible run started. It's a different proposition now, but thankfully at the moment (and touch wood it continues) the spine of the team seems stronger than I can remember; Fulop, Mac, Del, Leadbitter, Norris, Bullard, Wickham and Priskin are all making decent contributions. I think the play offs are a tough ask, but I think we'll move back above 1.6 pts per game on average and we might even possibly push on to higher. Leeds, currently in 6th, have averaged 1.63 pts per game all season, but their recent form has been lower at around 1.37.

Extrapolating current form trends means Forest should be champions, with QPR in 2nd. Cardiff and Norwich should make top 6 unless they really fall foul of injuries or loss of form (and yes I live in hope), and then it's really 2 from Millwall, Watford, Leicester, Leeds and Swansea. Of those you'd really fancy Leicester at this point.

Which leaves just one place left and a very tough ask for our side to push their points gathering up to the required level to make up the gap, I don't think Millwall or Watford will maintain their current runs, and I think Leeds will pull back to 1.5 pts per game or so and Swansea will continue much as they are around the 1.6 level. Those two should fight it out for the last place in the play offs around the 72-73 points total with possibly a late-run from Burnley to add some pressure. We'll obviously see if I'm anywhere near right at feeling 72 points is the minimum that will be required for 6th, or if you sticking your neck out around the 70 points level is more accurate?!

Personally I think we'll be up in the higher 60's - enough to provide some encouragement and hope for next season, but too little to make this one anything more than another season of transition/transformation.
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TheDalaiFarmer added 03:44 - Feb 7
Fark me.I'm now going to drop a box of matches..........
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dirtydingusmagee added 07:32 - Feb 7
im going to lay down , having a dizzy spell.
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dirtydingusmagee added 08:11 - Feb 7
think you are about right on the outcome Cherry,i reckon we will miss playoffs but finish around 9th,which given the way things were going would be good.The summer break im sure will be put to better use by PJ than was with RK ,so i'm hopeful of a decent season 2011/12 thanks for the blog, a bit much to take in at 7am .COYB
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Surco72 added 09:42 - Feb 7
I will stick my neck out and say we will sneak in playoffs due to our home form , at least with Jewell in charge we have a chance
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Vic added 11:19 - Feb 7
it's a pity we haven't more games at home against the teams we need to haul back. Points against lower teams are all well and good but unless the teams above us lose we don't gain anything. Whereas every time we beat a team above us it brings them closer to us.

For that simple a reason I don't think we'll make the play off. but TBH I'll settle for a decent run to the end of the season, end on a high, get the important out of contract players signed on, plus a few additions. Who knows, ME may even sanction the permanent signing of Jimmy B it's clear that he's the difference between mediocrity and a realistic promo effort.
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jas0999 added 19:51 - Feb 9
Neither. Mid-table all the way. Only thing to play for towards the end of the season will be pride in the East Anglian Derby! Hope I'm wrong, but with tough away games, can see nothing other than mid-table. That said, considering where we were a few weeks back - I'd take it! Concerned about season ticket sales though!
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Kropotkin123 added 07:27 - Feb 16
Following the 6 - 0 win at doncaster, it would be great to hear some 'best win' stats since... eg we scored 6, we scored 6 away, we scored 6 without reply, we scored a hatrick and what happened after the win, eg winning run?, scoring run, etc
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