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Some really worrying numbers here 09:11 - Apr 25 with 40770 viewsStokieBlue

500,000 UK children have missed a measles jab.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-48039524

I know there is a tiny chance of side-effects from the vaccine but overall the huge weight of evidence is that having the vaccine is statistically far better for any individual.

We will get anecdotal evidence no doubt which counters this but anecdotal evidence is tail events not the weight of probability.

Something needs to be done.

SB

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Some really worrying numbers here on 19:41 - May 1 with 4540 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 18:15 - May 1 by StokieBlue

I apologise that I don't have much time right now but I'm not sure how your first paragraph supports your argument?

Surely your point infers that the cases are under-reported in the first decade I cited and this the reduction in infections from the vaccines is even more pronounced.

I'd also add that whilst your family experience is interesting it's anecdotal and thus isn't really valid for meaningful study.

SB


"I apologise that I don't have much time right now but I'm not sure how your first paragraph supports your argument?"

I think it's clear. You're far less likely to go to the doctor with measles when you know it's measles and the whole of society says "whoopee, I've got measles - I don't have to go to school for a week!"

Furthermore, the closer to the war years it was, it's reasonable to assume that you wouldn't bother doctors with something insignificant when there were plenty of far more serious war-related health issues to bother the doctor with.

That means there's very likely a huge number of unreported cases of measles in the 10 years following WW2.

That would account for a massive reduction in measles cases even prior to the vaccine's introduction.

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Some really worrying numbers here on 19:54 - May 1 with 4524 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 18:37 - May 1 by eireblue

The interesting thing about that post is you commentary on the validity of statistics based on the un-scientific methods to create the statistics.

All the science articles that Harry cited, used poor collection. E.g. asking participants to recall, what happened 20 years ago, or when they were children.

So the stats backing some of the cited research are worth little as well.


I completely agree. Similarly, using these statistics to prove that vaccination against measles has almost eradicated the disease is also worthless.

That's why I prefer to use common sense:

a) improvements in living conditions: general hygiene, air and water quality and health information have all assisted in dramatically reducing the occurrence of infectious diseases in all societies - even prior to vaccinations.

b) getting measles wasn't seen as a great danger before large pharmaceutical companies started to promote their vaccines (see the video I posted earlier in the thread)

c) the occurrence of death resulting from measles (according to statistics) decreased 20-fold in the 2 decades preceding the vaccine's introduction in 1968.

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Some really worrying numbers here on 19:56 - May 1 with 4520 viewsSpruceMoose

Some really worrying numbers here on 19:54 - May 1 by caught-in-limbo

I completely agree. Similarly, using these statistics to prove that vaccination against measles has almost eradicated the disease is also worthless.

That's why I prefer to use common sense:

a) improvements in living conditions: general hygiene, air and water quality and health information have all assisted in dramatically reducing the occurrence of infectious diseases in all societies - even prior to vaccinations.

b) getting measles wasn't seen as a great danger before large pharmaceutical companies started to promote their vaccines (see the video I posted earlier in the thread)

c) the occurrence of death resulting from measles (according to statistics) decreased 20-fold in the 2 decades preceding the vaccine's introduction in 1968.


d) we never went to the moon

e) the Earth is flat.

You can try to be as eloquent as you like, you're still talking nonsense.

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Some really worrying numbers here on 20:03 - May 1 with 4513 viewseireblue

Some really worrying numbers here on 19:54 - May 1 by caught-in-limbo

I completely agree. Similarly, using these statistics to prove that vaccination against measles has almost eradicated the disease is also worthless.

That's why I prefer to use common sense:

a) improvements in living conditions: general hygiene, air and water quality and health information have all assisted in dramatically reducing the occurrence of infectious diseases in all societies - even prior to vaccinations.

b) getting measles wasn't seen as a great danger before large pharmaceutical companies started to promote their vaccines (see the video I posted earlier in the thread)

c) the occurrence of death resulting from measles (according to statistics) decreased 20-fold in the 2 decades preceding the vaccine's introduction in 1968.


Did you just say, I don’t trust stats, and prefer to use common sense, and then go on to use stats?

Spectacular.
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Some really worrying numbers here on 20:03 - May 1 with 4512 viewsSpruceMoose

Some really worrying numbers here on 20:03 - May 1 by eireblue

Did you just say, I don’t trust stats, and prefer to use common sense, and then go on to use stats?

Spectacular.


Spectacularly stupid perhaps.

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Some really worrying numbers here on 20:17 - May 1 with 4496 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 20:03 - May 1 by eireblue

Did you just say, I don’t trust stats, and prefer to use common sense, and then go on to use stats?

Spectacular.


Where did I say I don't trust stats?

Also, the accurate collection of statistics concerning the collection of measles cases is complicated for the reasons I gave earlier. Measles related deaths as a proportion of collected data is a perfectly good measure of a trend.

Spectacularly ignorant of statistics!

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Some really worrying numbers here on 20:21 - May 1 with 4491 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 19:56 - May 1 by SpruceMoose

d) we never went to the moon

e) the Earth is flat.

You can try to be as eloquent as you like, you're still talking nonsense.


By that argument, you're saying that hygiene levels and the like have no connection to the spread of infectious diseases.

Eloquent or not, very few people will agree with you. In fact, I suspect you're on your own.

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Some really worrying numbers here on 20:26 - May 1 with 4488 viewsSpruceMoose

Some really worrying numbers here on 20:21 - May 1 by caught-in-limbo

By that argument, you're saying that hygiene levels and the like have no connection to the spread of infectious diseases.

Eloquent or not, very few people will agree with you. In fact, I suspect you're on your own.


I doubt very few people read your posts to be fair. You have a history of spouting utter bollox, all of which is quite easily dismissed, as are most conspiracy theories. I suspect those kind of posts are quite tedious to most folk on here.

It's only the suckers like Stokie and myself who find amusement in your smug and self indulgent ravings.

Sadly I have to go now, but I look forward to reading whatever chin stroking put down you issue in response to this the next time I log on.

Toodles!

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Some really worrying numbers here on 20:34 - May 1 with 4482 viewseireblue

Some really worrying numbers here on 20:17 - May 1 by caught-in-limbo

Where did I say I don't trust stats?

Also, the accurate collection of statistics concerning the collection of measles cases is complicated for the reasons I gave earlier. Measles related deaths as a proportion of collected data is a perfectly good measure of a trend.

Spectacularly ignorant of statistics!


Well you completely agreed with my post.

I have a suspicion that your common sense will guide you to trust stats that are supportive and dismiss ones that are not.
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Some really worrying numbers here on 20:44 - May 1 with 4473 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 20:26 - May 1 by SpruceMoose

I doubt very few people read your posts to be fair. You have a history of spouting utter bollox, all of which is quite easily dismissed, as are most conspiracy theories. I suspect those kind of posts are quite tedious to most folk on here.

It's only the suckers like Stokie and myself who find amusement in your smug and self indulgent ravings.

Sadly I have to go now, but I look forward to reading whatever chin stroking put down you issue in response to this the next time I log on.

Toodles!


"I doubt very few people read your posts to be fair."

Based on your comment today in this thread about Dunning and Kruger you didn't read my posts yesterday very well, or simply failed to understand my posts today.

"You have a history of spouting utter bollox, all of which is quite easily dismissed"

But incredibly difficult for you it seems.

"It's only the suckers like Stokie and myself who find amusement in your smug and self indulgent ravings."

I wouldn't put you in the same sport as Stokie, let alone the same league. At least he has a go at challenging my views, you don't even try.

"Sadly I have to go now, but I look forward to reading whatever chin stroking put down you issue in response to this the next time I log on."

I'd have to excavate the earth below you to put you down.

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Some really worrying numbers here on 20:46 - May 1 with 4471 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 20:34 - May 1 by eireblue

Well you completely agreed with my post.

I have a suspicion that your common sense will guide you to trust stats that are supportive and dismiss ones that are not.


Which of my points a) to c) do you not agree with?

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Some really worrying numbers here on 21:34 - May 1 with 4436 viewsStokieBlue

Some really worrying numbers here on 19:41 - May 1 by caught-in-limbo

"I apologise that I don't have much time right now but I'm not sure how your first paragraph supports your argument?"

I think it's clear. You're far less likely to go to the doctor with measles when you know it's measles and the whole of society says "whoopee, I've got measles - I don't have to go to school for a week!"

Furthermore, the closer to the war years it was, it's reasonable to assume that you wouldn't bother doctors with something insignificant when there were plenty of far more serious war-related health issues to bother the doctor with.

That means there's very likely a huge number of unreported cases of measles in the 10 years following WW2.

That would account for a massive reduction in measles cases even prior to the vaccine's introduction.


That makes no sense. It might account for a 70% reduction in the first decade (although I'd love to see some actual evidence for this which you've not provided) but it wouldn't account for the consistent rate in the second decade.

I dispute your conclusion which is essentially anti-science. You've provided no evidence and once again you've failed accams razor.

You won't agree but you are wrong. It's actually quite upsetting that you are willing to mislead people to make a point. You need to take a look at yourself and if you're contributing to a world you want your daughter to live in.

I won't be responding again (possibly ever) so insult me as much as you want.

SB

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Some really worrying numbers here on 21:36 - May 1 with 4430 viewsSpruceMoose

Some really worrying numbers here on 20:44 - May 1 by caught-in-limbo

"I doubt very few people read your posts to be fair."

Based on your comment today in this thread about Dunning and Kruger you didn't read my posts yesterday very well, or simply failed to understand my posts today.

"You have a history of spouting utter bollox, all of which is quite easily dismissed"

But incredibly difficult for you it seems.

"It's only the suckers like Stokie and myself who find amusement in your smug and self indulgent ravings."

I wouldn't put you in the same sport as Stokie, let alone the same league. At least he has a go at challenging my views, you don't even try.

"Sadly I have to go now, but I look forward to reading whatever chin stroking put down you issue in response to this the next time I log on."

I'd have to excavate the earth below you to put you down.


Well that was a disappointment!

Lord CiL, you're basic.

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Some really worrying numbers here on 22:42 - May 1 with 4400 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 21:34 - May 1 by StokieBlue

That makes no sense. It might account for a 70% reduction in the first decade (although I'd love to see some actual evidence for this which you've not provided) but it wouldn't account for the consistent rate in the second decade.

I dispute your conclusion which is essentially anti-science. You've provided no evidence and once again you've failed accams razor.

You won't agree but you are wrong. It's actually quite upsetting that you are willing to mislead people to make a point. You need to take a look at yourself and if you're contributing to a world you want your daughter to live in.

I won't be responding again (possibly ever) so insult me as much as you want.

SB


"I dispute your conclusion which is essentially anti-science. You've provided no evidence and once again you've failed accams (sic) razor."


"In the scientific method, Occam's razor is not considered an irrefutable principle of logic or a scientific result; the preference for simplicity in the scientific method is based on the falsifiability criterion. For each accepted explanation of a phenomenon, there may be an extremely large, perhaps even incomprehensible, number of possible and more complex alternatives."

Source: wiki - ("99.5% as reliable as textbooks")

Makes your sentence at the top of this post look rather muddled if not a little contradictory.

"You won't agree but you are wrong."
>>Correct, I don't agree. It's impossible to demonstrate the degree of inaccuracy of that data so it's impossible to say I'm wrong. The only use that data has is in showing the number of measles sufferer deaths as a proportion of reported sufferers. Any statistician worth their salt can see that.


"It's actually quite upsetting that you are willing to mislead people to make a point."
>>I'm not misleading anyone willingly. I am disagreeing with your comment earlier: "I think that surely puts to rest any more nonsense about the vaccine not having a huge effect on measles cases."

"You need to take a look at yourself and if you're contributing to a world you want your daughter to live in."
>>I want my daughter to live in a world where people have sovereignty over what they or their children have injected into their bodies. I accept there may be extreme circumstances where compulsory vaccination of babies may be viewed as necessary, but avoiding the spread of measles which currently has a 0.01% fatality rate is not one of them.

"I won't be responding again (possibly ever)"
>>There is no way you will not respond to me ever again. You are far too principled: you will counter my every comment in order to save the planet from the spread of harmful disinformation.

"so insult me as much as you want."
>>That's more your style. It doesn't bother me at all that you disagree with me. I've had about 12 years experience of not giving a stuff about holding minority views on this site.
[Post edited 1 May 2019 22:56]

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Some really worrying numbers here on 22:48 - May 1 with 4396 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 21:36 - May 1 by SpruceMoose

Well that was a disappointment!

Lord CiL, you're basic.


This is your 5th direct reply to me since you said "I'm not wasting any more of my time on you CiL".

You're not even honest with yourself - and you call me "basic", "weak" and "spectacularly stupid".

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Some really worrying numbers here on 23:44 - May 1 with 4378 viewsSpruceMoose

Some really worrying numbers here on 22:48 - May 1 by caught-in-limbo

This is your 5th direct reply to me since you said "I'm not wasting any more of my time on you CiL".

You're not even honest with yourself - and you call me "basic", "weak" and "spectacularly stupid".


I'm having too much fun to stop now!

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Some really worrying numbers here on 23:48 - May 1 with 4376 viewsStokieBlue

Some really worrying numbers here on 22:42 - May 1 by caught-in-limbo

"I dispute your conclusion which is essentially anti-science. You've provided no evidence and once again you've failed accams (sic) razor."


"In the scientific method, Occam's razor is not considered an irrefutable principle of logic or a scientific result; the preference for simplicity in the scientific method is based on the falsifiability criterion. For each accepted explanation of a phenomenon, there may be an extremely large, perhaps even incomprehensible, number of possible and more complex alternatives."

Source: wiki - ("99.5% as reliable as textbooks")

Makes your sentence at the top of this post look rather muddled if not a little contradictory.

"You won't agree but you are wrong."
>>Correct, I don't agree. It's impossible to demonstrate the degree of inaccuracy of that data so it's impossible to say I'm wrong. The only use that data has is in showing the number of measles sufferer deaths as a proportion of reported sufferers. Any statistician worth their salt can see that.


"It's actually quite upsetting that you are willing to mislead people to make a point."
>>I'm not misleading anyone willingly. I am disagreeing with your comment earlier: "I think that surely puts to rest any more nonsense about the vaccine not having a huge effect on measles cases."

"You need to take a look at yourself and if you're contributing to a world you want your daughter to live in."
>>I want my daughter to live in a world where people have sovereignty over what they or their children have injected into their bodies. I accept there may be extreme circumstances where compulsory vaccination of babies may be viewed as necessary, but avoiding the spread of measles which currently has a 0.01% fatality rate is not one of them.

"I won't be responding again (possibly ever)"
>>There is no way you will not respond to me ever again. You are far too principled: you will counter my every comment in order to save the planet from the spread of harmful disinformation.

"so insult me as much as you want."
>>That's more your style. It doesn't bother me at all that you disagree with me. I've had about 12 years experience of not giving a stuff about holding minority views on this site.
[Post edited 1 May 2019 22:56]


Edit:

I've calmed down now but the general point still stands.

This isn't a site to spread fake news, I think you should take it somewhere else before any damage is done.

SB
[Post edited 2 May 2019 7:22]

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Some really worrying numbers here on 23:56 - May 1 with 4367 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 23:48 - May 1 by StokieBlue

Edit:

I've calmed down now but the general point still stands.

This isn't a site to spread fake news, I think you should take it somewhere else before any damage is done.

SB
[Post edited 2 May 2019 7:22]


Wow, you're back!!!

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Some really worrying numbers here on 00:15 - May 2 with 4360 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 23:48 - May 1 by StokieBlue

Edit:

I've calmed down now but the general point still stands.

This isn't a site to spread fake news, I think you should take it somewhere else before any damage is done.

SB
[Post edited 2 May 2019 7:22]


Back again! Jeepers I've got you and Spruce in a right tizz for the second day running!

"you're a danger to the populace who might be stupid enough to believe your crap."

According to SpruceMoose it's only you and him that actually read my posts. Based on my last two days' posting, I think he's probably right. I can't believe you're both stupid enough to believe my crap.

In summary:
You appear to want to silence me expressing my views.
I am happy for you to express yours.
You support the compulsory vaccination of babies against diseases which cause the death of one in ten thousand.
I support freedom of choice on the matter.

I'm sure in some parallel universe it would be you in the minority being regularly accused of supporting an autocratic regime, not me.
[Post edited 2 May 2019 6:38]

#toxic
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Some really worrying numbers here on 00:42 - May 2 with 4351 viewsSpruceMoose

Some really worrying numbers here on 00:15 - May 2 by caught-in-limbo

Back again! Jeepers I've got you and Spruce in a right tizz for the second day running!

"you're a danger to the populace who might be stupid enough to believe your crap."

According to SpruceMoose it's only you and him that actually read my posts. Based on my last two days' posting, I think he's probably right. I can't believe you're both stupid enough to believe my crap.

In summary:
You appear to want to silence me expressing my views.
I am happy for you to express yours.
You support the compulsory vaccination of babies against diseases which cause the death of one in ten thousand.
I support freedom of choice on the matter.

I'm sure in some parallel universe it would be you in the minority being regularly accused of supporting an autocratic regime, not me.
[Post edited 2 May 2019 6:38]


If by laughing in your face at your ridiculous tinfoil hattery then yeah, I'm certainly in a tiz!

Anyway, best leave it here, don't want you running to Uncle Phil to have a blub about me again, eh comrade?

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(No subject) (n/t) on 06:17 - May 2 with 4328 viewsStokieBlue

Some really worrying numbers here on 22:42 - May 1 by caught-in-limbo

"I dispute your conclusion which is essentially anti-science. You've provided no evidence and once again you've failed accams (sic) razor."


"In the scientific method, Occam's razor is not considered an irrefutable principle of logic or a scientific result; the preference for simplicity in the scientific method is based on the falsifiability criterion. For each accepted explanation of a phenomenon, there may be an extremely large, perhaps even incomprehensible, number of possible and more complex alternatives."

Source: wiki - ("99.5% as reliable as textbooks")

Makes your sentence at the top of this post look rather muddled if not a little contradictory.

"You won't agree but you are wrong."
>>Correct, I don't agree. It's impossible to demonstrate the degree of inaccuracy of that data so it's impossible to say I'm wrong. The only use that data has is in showing the number of measles sufferer deaths as a proportion of reported sufferers. Any statistician worth their salt can see that.


"It's actually quite upsetting that you are willing to mislead people to make a point."
>>I'm not misleading anyone willingly. I am disagreeing with your comment earlier: "I think that surely puts to rest any more nonsense about the vaccine not having a huge effect on measles cases."

"You need to take a look at yourself and if you're contributing to a world you want your daughter to live in."
>>I want my daughter to live in a world where people have sovereignty over what they or their children have injected into their bodies. I accept there may be extreme circumstances where compulsory vaccination of babies may be viewed as necessary, but avoiding the spread of measles which currently has a 0.01% fatality rate is not one of them.

"I won't be responding again (possibly ever)"
>>There is no way you will not respond to me ever again. You are far too principled: you will counter my every comment in order to save the planet from the spread of harmful disinformation.

"so insult me as much as you want."
>>That's more your style. It doesn't bother me at all that you disagree with me. I've had about 12 years experience of not giving a stuff about holding minority views on this site.
[Post edited 1 May 2019 22:56]



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Some really worrying numbers here on 06:45 - May 2 with 4307 viewsC_HealyIsAPleasure

Some really worrying numbers here on 22:42 - May 1 by caught-in-limbo

"I dispute your conclusion which is essentially anti-science. You've provided no evidence and once again you've failed accams (sic) razor."


"In the scientific method, Occam's razor is not considered an irrefutable principle of logic or a scientific result; the preference for simplicity in the scientific method is based on the falsifiability criterion. For each accepted explanation of a phenomenon, there may be an extremely large, perhaps even incomprehensible, number of possible and more complex alternatives."

Source: wiki - ("99.5% as reliable as textbooks")

Makes your sentence at the top of this post look rather muddled if not a little contradictory.

"You won't agree but you are wrong."
>>Correct, I don't agree. It's impossible to demonstrate the degree of inaccuracy of that data so it's impossible to say I'm wrong. The only use that data has is in showing the number of measles sufferer deaths as a proportion of reported sufferers. Any statistician worth their salt can see that.


"It's actually quite upsetting that you are willing to mislead people to make a point."
>>I'm not misleading anyone willingly. I am disagreeing with your comment earlier: "I think that surely puts to rest any more nonsense about the vaccine not having a huge effect on measles cases."

"You need to take a look at yourself and if you're contributing to a world you want your daughter to live in."
>>I want my daughter to live in a world where people have sovereignty over what they or their children have injected into their bodies. I accept there may be extreme circumstances where compulsory vaccination of babies may be viewed as necessary, but avoiding the spread of measles which currently has a 0.01% fatality rate is not one of them.

"I won't be responding again (possibly ever)"
>>There is no way you will not respond to me ever again. You are far too principled: you will counter my every comment in order to save the planet from the spread of harmful disinformation.

"so insult me as much as you want."
>>That's more your style. It doesn't bother me at all that you disagree with me. I've had about 12 years experience of not giving a stuff about holding minority views on this site.
[Post edited 1 May 2019 22:56]


Just to pickup on one point, but I’d suggest a 0.01% fatality rate is actually quite high?

Starting from the position that vaccines are effective, if these were to stop and there was subsequently a major measles outbreak - which is quite plausible given population density and travel patterns in 2019, 0.01% would represent a hell of a lot of people dying, not to mention those that end up with disabilities or other effects as a result

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Some really worrying numbers here on 10:11 - May 2 with 4264 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 06:45 - May 2 by C_HealyIsAPleasure

Just to pickup on one point, but I’d suggest a 0.01% fatality rate is actually quite high?

Starting from the position that vaccines are effective, if these were to stop and there was subsequently a major measles outbreak - which is quite plausible given population density and travel patterns in 2019, 0.01% would represent a hell of a lot of people dying, not to mention those that end up with disabilities or other effects as a result


I guess it's all relative.

If we look at the highest yearly reported measles cases recorded in Britain prior to measles vaccination (1968), the figure was 763,531 in 1961.

With a 0.01% fatality rate, that would mean 76 deaths in a major measles outbreak (the outbreak being the highest since 1940).

Compare that to the deaths resulting from last year's severe winter: 50,100 extra deaths were recorded above the seasonal norm.

Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/dea

Obviously, I'm not trying to compare like for like, but if the populace was inoculated against the cold with better housing and heating during the cold months, we wouldn't see such an awful and largely preventable loss of life at winter (which happens at the same time each year).

All preventable deaths are tragic. The import thing is to maintain a sense of perspective.
[Post edited 2 May 2019 10:41]

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Some really worrying numbers here on 10:35 - May 2 with 4241 viewscaught-in-limbo

Some really worrying numbers here on 23:48 - May 1 by StokieBlue

Edit:

I've calmed down now but the general point still stands.

This isn't a site to spread fake news, I think you should take it somewhere else before any damage is done.

SB
[Post edited 2 May 2019 7:22]


Glad to hear you've calmed down, but well done, you got my comment censored.

Like I said earlier:

You want to silence my views.
I am happy for you to express yours.
You support the compulsory vaccination of babies against diseases which cause the death of one in ten thousand.
I support freedom of choice on the matter.

I'm sure in some parallel universe it would be you in the minority being regularly accused of supporting an autocratic regime, not me.

#toxic
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Some really worrying numbers here on 10:44 - May 2 with 4228 viewsStokieBlue

Some really worrying numbers here on 10:35 - May 2 by caught-in-limbo

Glad to hear you've calmed down, but well done, you got my comment censored.

Like I said earlier:

You want to silence my views.
I am happy for you to express yours.
You support the compulsory vaccination of babies against diseases which cause the death of one in ten thousand.
I support freedom of choice on the matter.

I'm sure in some parallel universe it would be you in the minority being regularly accused of supporting an autocratic regime, not me.


You're lying again, please stop.

"You support the compulsory vaccination of babies against diseases which cause the death of one in ten thousand."

Where have I actually said that?

If choice is based on false information is it really free?

Your comment was censored because it's a proven falsehood and it actually dangerous.
You should be ashamed of yourself for posting such things on here where they could actually have a harmful effect.

SB

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